Obamcare lie starting to get smacked down outside the bubble

It's been interesting reading the online reactions the day after the CBO report on the deficit and the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare) came out. This report indicated that Obamacare will lead to an estimated 2 million Americans opting out of the work force in the next 3 years, and when the report originally came out, Republicans tried to jump all over it, claiming it "proved" Obamacare was a job-killer. Not surprisingly, the lame-os in the D.C. media went along with it.

Just as predictably, grandstanding GOPs tried to get CBO director Douglas Elmendorf to say "Obamacare costs jobs" at a Budget Committee hearing today, but it didn't go quite as planned for the Repubs.

On page 124, the report estimates that the ACA will “boost overall demand for goods and services over the next few years because the people who will benefit from the expansion of Medicaid and from access to the exchange subsidies are predominantly in lower-income households and thus are likely to spend a considerable fraction of their additional resources on goods and services.” This, the report says, “will in turn boost demand for labor over the next few years.”

“When you boost demand for labor in this kind of economy, you actually reduce the unemployment rate, because those people who are looking for work can find more work, right?” [Dem Rep. Chris] Van Hollen asked Elmendorf.

“Yes, that’s right,” Elmendorf said.

Elmendorf added that the factor Van Hollen had identified was something CBO thinks “spurs employment and would reduce unemployment over the next few years.”

And Van Hollen and Elmendorf aren't the only ones to note the positives in that CBO report, and the meme might be turning already. Check out this segment from Chris Hayes' MSNBC show yesterday. He not only shreds imbecilic Sen. Marco Rubio for claiming Obamacare is a fiscal drag (it actually REDUCES the deficit in coming years), but then he discusses the "people leaving the work force" talking point with Business Insider's Josh Barro. The stuff on the work force effect starts around 4:30, and it's good, wonky stuff that's on an understandable level.



That's how this is going to work in the real world, and the last point about how this gives some power to the worker over the employer is a big one- you can't use "health care" as a reason a worker needs to stay at your job, because they could now get covered through the exchanges or expanded Medicaid (if you're in a place lucky enough to take expanded Medicaid). THAT'S the real reason why the Kochs are trying to fight this so badly.

And it's why Koch puppets in Congress that continue to live in the right-wing bubble refuse acknowledge that the CBO report shows that Obamacare is a net benefit for many Americans, and probably the economy as a whole. Exhibit A of that type of Congressman, U.S. Sen. (mo)Ron Johnson. I'll have the reality in italics.

“Sadly, yesterday, we receive further proof of the true harm done to our country by the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (PPACA). (Go on....) The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released a report on the budget (link here) that shows PPACA is expected to lower wages and depress the incentive for individuals to look for higher wages. (Actually, it's the complete opposite- it raises wages) CBO’s analysis should put to rest any doubt left among the proponents of this law that it is harmful. (The real world already doubts that your conclusion, Ron) The people of Wisconsin are already seeing their insurance cost skyrocket, losing access to their doctors, and losing the health plans they liked. (For the few Wisconsinites this may be true for, that's on Gov. Walker and the Wisconsin GOP Legislature for not setting up our own exchange and expanding Medicaid.) This report is additional proof that the law damages every component of our economy. (Not even close)

“It is unconscionable that the Democrats who passed this bill and the President who signed it into law would let this debacle continue. We must act responsibly to repair the damage caused by the law and limit and prevent future damage. (Yes, not forcing people to work till they drop and grab higher wages is such a calamity! How will we ever survive?) It goes beyond callous to stand idly by while people are losing their livelihoods and having their health put at risk.” (Name one.)

And outside of (mo)Ron Johnson's right-wing bubble is Newsweek's Kurt Eichenwald, who ended his article today by stating

Is the CBO correct? Who knows? As with any predictions, these estimates are based on economic models and assumptions, and those can be wrong or they can change. But the CBO certainly has not provided any serious new information that can be used by the critics of Obamacare. So, when politicians and commentators say that the new CBO report is devastating proof of the terrible impact of Obamacare, just know this: they’re lying.

Obamacare will keep people from working? GOOD!

  My reaction to the Congressional Budget Office's report on the deficit, economic outlook, and effects of Obamacare  is probably different from many in the right-wing bubble. Many righties and media analyses are focusing on the CBO's finding that an estimated 2 million Americans will remove themselves from the workforce due to Obamacare in the next 4 years. <./a> Well, I have 2 statements in response to that.

   1. That's not a bad thing.

   2.  Our economy will probably be better as a result.

   First, let's talk about the claim of people leaving the work force due to Obamacare. It's from page 117 of the CBO report, which summarizes

CBO estimates that the ACA will reduce the total number of hours worked, on net, by about 1.5 percent to 2.0 percent during the period from 2017 to 2024, almost entirely because workers will choose to supply less labor—given the new taxes and other incentives they will face and the financial benefits some will receive. Because the largest declines in labor supply will probably occur among lower-wage workers, the reduction in aggregate compensation (wages, salaries, and fringe benefits) and the impact on the overall economy will be proportionally smaller than the reduction in hours worked. Specifically, CBO estimates that the ACA will cause a reduction of roughly 1 percent in aggregate labor compensation over the 2017–2024 period, compared with what it would have been otherwise. Although such effects are likely to continue after 2024 (the end of the current 10-year budget window), CBO has not estimated their magnitude or duration over a longer period.

 

The reduction in CBO’s projections of hours worked represents a decline in the number of full-time-equivalent workers of about 2.0 million in 2017, rising to about 2.5 million in 2024. Although CBO projects that total employment (and compensation) will increase over the coming decade, that increase will be smaller than it would have been in the absence of the ACA. The decline in fulltime- equivalent employment stemming from the ACA will consist of some people not being employed at all and other people working fewer hours; however, CBO has not tried to quantify those two components of the overall effect.  The estimated reduction stems almost entirely from a net decline in the amount of labor that workers choose to supply, rather than from a net drop in businesses’ demand for labor, so it will appear almost entirely as a reduction in labor force participation and in hour worked relative to what would have occurred otherwise rather than as an increase in unemployment (that is, more workers seeking but not finding jobs) or underemployment

(such as part-time workers who would prefer to work more hours per week).

   

So straight from the CBO, it is saying Obamacare will keep certain people from choosing work. And sorry righties,  that's a good thing. It means a lot of those Americans aren't locked into a crappy job that they have to stay at because it gives them health care benefits. It also gives options to workers to find other work because it's not as tied to health care, and can raise wages for workers because it tightens the labor market (which is a big reason why oligarchs hate Obamacare- the work force isn't as desperate and they can't screw em over as much).

 

   I made this observation on Twitter today, noting that this CBO report indicated that Obamacare was leading to more FREE-DUM!!! because it didn't tie as many people to their jobs, and the responses from righties were telling.

@rachelveronica @JakeMillerWis Too late. Looks like he had a lobotomy already. Read the bill like I did, Jake. It ain't about freedom.
— KayBDay (@TheUSReport) February 4, 2014

No, really. Who is going to buy @JakeMillerWis a dictionary? Anyone want to go halfsies on a copy of Econ for Dummies?
— Rachel Veronica (@rachelveronica) February 4, 2014

It doesn't compute in right-wing world that labor also can follow the laws of supply and demand (it's the same reason these dimwits don't get that part of the reason we have a "skills gap" in Wisconsin is because Wisconsin employers pay the lowest average manu-facturing wage in the Midwest). It also doesn't make sense to these people that the average person doesn't get a lot of choice in how much they get paid or where they work these days, so anything that helps to give them a choice (like the ACA giving them healthcare) can have a real change on what they choose to do. This would include Boomers choosing to retire at age 60 since they can now afford health care on their own, or parents choosing to stay at home to raise their kids because they are now able to be covered.

 

    (By the way, this goes out to "Rachel Veronica." I know you're a guy who is either a WisGOP staffer or a Koch Industries paid poster. Stop the charade, look up the Dunning-Kruger effect, and realize who you are )

It's the same way that Obamacare often is becoming a back-door public option, as employers such as Target are choosing not to spend the money to give health insurance to part-time employees, and are instead encouraging them to get covered through the exchanges. This is fine with me- it means the company isn't taking on the expense of health care, and the employee can end up with cheaper insurance premiums, better coverage, or both. I'd call that a win-win, and that employee then doesn't have to worry about their health care situation if they want to move on to another job, since they're already covered through the ACA.

So no righties- Obamacare is not "killing 2 million jobs". In fact, it is likely going to drive down the unemployment rate, by freeing up jobs for people who need work, and may increase our country's economic output and well-being, since people will have more economic stability from being covered through the ACA, and others will have higher wages which allow them to spend more money. This also could lead to increased job growth for a more legitimate reason than we've often had in recent years- demand for products from workers who are finally paid a fairer wage.

Sounds like a better USA to me. Combine that extra stability with the CBO mentioning that the deficit is at its lowest level in 7 years, and it seems like we have no excuse not to put our foot on the gas and have our federal and state governments work on making stuff and adding jobs over pinching pennies. It's long overdue.

Wisconsin still gruesomely blocking health care

  More information has come out in the last week showing just how foolish and cruel the Walker Administration and Wisconsin GOP are being in refusing to expand Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act (aka Obamacare).

   Harvard researchers looked at the different health outcomes that could happen as a result of states opting out of the expanded Medicaid funding,  and the projections are both frightening and disgusting.

  We estimate the number of deaths attributable to the lack of Medicaid expansion in opt-out states at between 7,115 and 17,104.  Medicaid expansion in opt-out states would have resulted in 712,037 fewer persons screening positive for depression and 240,700 fewer individuals suffering catastrophic medical expenditures. Medicaid expansion in these states would have resulted in 422,553 more diabetics receiving medication for their illness, 195,492 more mammograms among women age 50-64 years and 443,677 more pap smears among women age 21-64. Expansion would have resulted in an additional 658,888 women in need of mammograms gaining insurance, as well as 3.1 million women who should receive regular pap smears.

They also broke down the effects in individual states. In Wisconsin, the researchers estimated that over 150,000 would remain uninsured because of the Walker Administration's decision, and more than 4,000 additional Wisconsinites would face "catastrophic medical expenses."  Also, the paper estimates Wisconsin women will receive 4,000 fewer mammograms and 8,000 fewer pap smears with Medicaid not being expanded. Lastly, and worst of all, the Harvard researchers say at least 139 Wisconsinites would die each year as a result of Walker's decision, with the death toll possibly being as high as 700.

   And even among the ghoulish, Bagger-run states that have tried to sabotage Obamacare, Wisconsin has lowered itself to depths no other place is reaching. As noted by the Green Bay Press-Gazette and other outlets, Wisconsin is LAST IN THE NATION at per-capita spending in outreach and marketing geared toward help people get covered through Obamacare. In reflection of this stat, the Root River Siren had a great post on this seditious behavior by the Walker Administration, and here's a taster, where the Siren talks about the state's barriers to adding ACA navigators, which leads to a huge lack of service in the city with one of the highest unemployment rates in Wisconsin.

 Racine for example has no navigators at all. None. You have to go 25 miles to find one. No one at the county health department is one, no one in town at all.

Navigators do, however, earn a commission on enrollments. Paid by the federal government - they can earn something like $20 bucks a month for each person as long as they are enrolled. It's an incentive for community health organizations to go through the process of training a navigator and do outreach to get people insured.

That is, if you are interested in people having health insurance - which Scott Walker isn't.

If you want Obamacare to fail, then you create barrier after barrier for the people who would like to enroll others. If you create enough barriers, pretty soon you have whole cities where not one navigator exists - like Racine.

Correct-a-mundo Siren! The goal is to FUBAR Obamacare as badly as possible, and make people so unhappy with it that they'll vote for any Republican who will "reform"/ replace it. And if tens of thousands of people die, well that's just collateral damage to the ultimate goal.

 These are the kind of sociopaths we are dealing with, and they have to be removed as soon as possible.

Jobs update

In between a lot of the data and other developments that flew in last week, you may have missed that the Bureau of Labor Statistics released the monthly state-by-state jobs report for December 2013.  With the full year in  the books, now is a good time to see where we stand in Wisconsin compared to our peers. This is true not just for 2013, but also for the 3 years since many Midwestern states changed governorships.

   The BLS notes that 5 of the 7 Midwestern states had statistically significant increases in employment last year, including Wisconsin, who rode a strong final 3 months to end up with a decent increase in jobs by the end of 2013.

   Change in jobs, Dec 2012-Dec 2013, BLS
    Ill. +62,200 (+1.08%)
    Ind. +51,800 (+1.77%)
    Iowa +12,800 (+0.84%)
    Mich +63,800 (+1.58%)
    Minn +45,800 (+1.66%)
    Ohio +25,600 (+0.49%)
    Wis. +44,500 (+1.59%)

    On a percentage basis, it looks like Wisconsin is right in the middle of the pack of 2013. Not that bad by itself, and certainly something GOP candidates could point to as some kind of success (others would call it mediocrity, but both would be spinning). However, Governor Walker promised Wisconsinites 250,000 private sector jobs over his 4 years in office, so with 3 years in the books, why don't we look at where that stands, and compare with the rest of the Midwest. I'll rank this by percentage change, since some states are larger than others.

  Change in private sector jobs, Dec 2010- Dec 2013
  (U.S. rate- +6.38%)

   Mich +219,400 (+6.71%)
   Ind. +177,800 (+6.62%)
   Minn +139,500 (+6.22%)
   Iowa +54,300 (+4.44%)
   Wis. +100,200 (+4.31%)
   Ill. +205,300 (+4.27%)
   Ohio +178,700 (+4.17%)

   Hey, at least we're finally out of last place! But we are way behind the curve when it comes to keeping up with the U.S., or even the Midwest leaders in Michigan, Indiana, and Minnesota. In fact, even with the decent 2013 numbers, the Walker jobs gap continued to grow last year, as the state fell nearly 4,000 private sector jobs further behind the U.S. pace.

 

 Also worth mentioning is that the state and U.S. numbers will be benchmarked in about a month. This re-sets some of these numbers based on more complete data (the Quarterly Census on Employment and Wages is one of those sources of data), and last year, it played to the Walker Administration's benefit, showing a higher number of jobs.  If you want to do some predicting, it's worth mentioning that the 12-month QCEW jobs increase was around 1,600 LESS than the monthly figures, so if anything, Wisconsin's number may be lowered.

  So there's the update. Not as brutal as we saw earlier in 2013, but Wisconsin is still badly lacking when you look at the course of the last 3 years, and not only will we not reach 250,000 private sector jobs in 4 years, we'd be lucky to reach 150,000.

The latest look at the WisGOP insider club

While our paid-off media in Wisconsin was concentrating yesterday on Gov. Walker's $5.1 million haul in fundraising for 2013 (with major dollar signs from political ads in their eyes, no doubt), the real lead in the story is where some of that money went.

Gov. Scott Walker raised more than $5 million in the last half of 2013 — nearly triple what his Democratic opponent raised — and directed more than $86,000 of that to defense attorneys, according to a Friday filing with state election officials.

The disclosure of the payment to the Mequon-based Biskupic & Jacobs law firm came a day after information spilled out in court records about a secret John Doe investigation into campaign fundraising and spending surrounding Wisconsin's recent recall elections.

The payments — labeled as "legal fees — compliance/administrative" — were paid to a firm headed by former U.S. Attorneys Steven Biskupic and Michelle Jacobs. The firm received payments monthly from July to November, with the largest one — nearly $74,000 — coming in November.

Asked about the payments, Walker campaign spokesman Jonathan Wetzel said the campaign "relies on Biskupic & Jacobs for a variety of legal services." The two attorneys did not immediately return calls late Friday.

The name Steven Biskupic should set off alarms. Those of you outside of Wisconsin may remember him being named on Karl Rove's hit list in 2006, as Rove tried to force U.S. Attorney's into politically-motivated prosecutions.

The Justice Department demanded that one U.S. attorney, Todd P. Graves of Kansas City, resign in January 2006, several months after he refused to sign off on a Justice lawsuit involving the state's voter rolls, Graves said last week. U.S. Attorney Steven M. Biskupic of Milwaukee also was targeted last fall after complaints from Rove that he was not doing enough about voter fraud. But he was spared because Justice officials feared that removing him might cause political problems on Capitol Hill, according to interviews of Justice aides conducted by congressional staff members. ...

Last October [2006], just weeks before the midterm elections, Rove's office sent a 26-page packet to Gonzales's office containing precinct-level voting data about Milwaukee. A Justice aide told congressional investigators that he quickly put the package aside, concerned that taking action would violate strict rules against investigations shortly before elections, according to statements disclosed this week.

There was another reason Biskupic got off the hook- he followed the GOP party line and performed a frivolous prosecution to help the Wisconsin GOP in 2006.



Those of you in Wisconsin may recall the Georgia Thompson case. Thompson was a worker at the state's Department of Administration, and awarded a state travel contract to Adelman Travel Group out of Milwaukee. Biskupic claimed that Thompson rigged the bidding process, and indicted her with charges and timing that were both dubious.

While Ms. Thompson did her job conscientiously, that is less clear of Mr. Biskupic. The decision to award the contract — the supposed crime — occurred in Madison, in the jurisdiction of Wisconsin’s other United States attorney. But for reasons that are hard to understand, the Milwaukee-based Mr. Biskupic swept in and took the case.

While he was investigating, in the fall of 2005, Mr. Biskupic informed the media. Justice Department guidelines say federal prosecutors can publicly discuss investigations before an indictment only under extraordinary circumstances. This case hardly met that test.

The prosecution proceeded on a schedule that worked out perfectly for the Republican candidate for governor. Mr. Biskupic announced Ms. Thompson’s indictment in January 2006. She went to trial that summer, and was sentenced in late September, weeks before the election. Mr. Biskupic insisted in July, as he vowed to continue the investigation, that “the review is not going to be tied to the political calendar.”

Except that the case was a key part of the Wisconsin GOP's campaign against Governor Jim Doyle in the Fall of 2006. Combine that with the threats that Biskupic was under from Rove and then-Attorney General Alberto Gonzalez, and it's not hard to think that Biskupic may not exactly have been playing it down the middle.

This became especially evident when Thompson was freed from prison in April 2007 after an Appeals Court saw the case as the BS railroad job that it was.

"I have to say it strikes me that your evidence is beyond thin," federal Appeals Judge Diane Wood told prosecutors. "I'm not sure what your actual theory in this case is."

The court heard arguments in the case Thursday morning and then ordered a trial judge to free Thompson from a federal prison in Illinois, which she entered in November.

Oh, I have a theory, Judge Wood. Steven Biskupic is a GOP hack, and cares more about helping the party vs. making sure that justice is being carried out. After leaving the U.S. Attorney's office after Barack Obama's election, he's now doing "private practice", which lets him receive wingnut welfare...such as $86,000 in campaign funds for trying to keep Scott Walker out of prison and keep WisGOP in power in Wisconsin.

It's reminiscent of for Wisconsin DOJ Attorney Ray Taffora, who quit his job immediately after Walker's election, and has made big bucks being a legal point man for the administration in several of its sleaziest endeavors, including Act 10 and the in-secret, GOP gerrymandering of the state.

This type of revolving-door cronyism spreads well beyond the legal profession with WisGOP. Remember the welder that was presented at the state of the state and then embarrassingly was found to be a felon and a former sex offender? You should also recall why that guy was sent up (and set up) as a human prop- because the Walker Admin called up the Ariens folks asking if they could find someone that was a recent hire that they could use as an example of Walker's policies "taking Wisconsin in the right direction."

This leads to the obvious question- Why did the Walker folks choose to call Ariens in the first place? This announcement from Friday may tell you why.

The Wisconsin Manufacturers & Commerce (WMC) Board of Directors today elected Dan Ariens, President and CEO of Ariens Company of Brillion, to serve as chairman of the 3,500-member state chamber of commerce.

Ariens pledged to focus on workforce development and continuing to improve our state’s business climate. He stressed that WMC will continue to advocate pro-growth policies and educate the public about issues important to businesses....

Ariens, who serves as the vice chairman of the Wisconsin Economic Development Corporation, said that our state’s business climate is improving but WMC will work with elected officials and other stakeholders to improve our business climate even more.

“I know that Governor Walker and pro-growth lawmakers are committed to improving our business climate and WMC will play a leading role in developing and advocating polices that create jobs,” Ariens said. "WMC members can provide the day-to-day economic reality of what’s happening in the towns and cities and workplace across Wisconsin, one job at a time."

And gee, which organization did a dishonest $1 million ad campaign last year titled "Thanks, Governor Walker!" Yep, WMC. Imagine that! It's almost like the "independent" WMC is just another arm of the Wisconsin Republican Party, with policies that really aren't for Mom and Pop businesses that care about the future of their communities, but instead are for the large, "profit at any cost" corporations that companies like Ariens and Briggs and Stratton have mutated into over the last couple of decades.

It is equally unsurprising is the fact that the Ariens family has given over $30,000 to Republicans in the last 15 years, including multiple family members giving sizable donations to the campaigns of Scott Walker and Attorney General JB Van Hollen. It's not a coincidence that the Walker folks had Ariens' office line on speed dial when they decided to pull their fail of a PR stunt, because they knew some payback was in order from passing corporate giveaways in the tax code (with more included in Walker's latest tax cut plan).

This type of insider club backscratching has become par for the course in the Age of Fitzwalkerstan, with cronyism and one-sided policy that makes Jim Doyle's often-sketchy administration look like Robert La Follette's. Once the national media chews up and spits out Chris Christie (which seems to be a date coming sooner than later), they may want to cast their eyes west of I-95, and take a look at the revolving door going on in Wisconsin- and they won't have to look far.

Walker tries Keynesianism...but can't quite get it right

There are a couple of interesting sidelights to our Governor's plans for spending one-time surplus funds. Obviously the big deal is the tax cuts he's proposing (and at a later point I'll bring up just how dumb and irresponsible those are), but here I want to concentrate on two proposals that increase spending in two areas usually associated with liberalism- investing in technical colleges and road building. Direct investment is a classic example of Keynesianism-style economics, using direct investment to produce jobs and better economic outcomes. But as you'll see, the funding that pays for these Walker initiatives come from places other than the projected General Fund surplus, and leads to further issues in the next budget.

The first item to discuss is the increase is related to increasing the skill level of potential workers in certain technical industries. Basically this'll be a $35.4 million block grant to the state's Department of Workforce Development, which will then go to expand the number of students admitted to tech colleges, and for projects between businesses and high schools and other partners in certain "high-demand fields." It also includes funding that can go toward hiring people with disabilities, and extra administration costs that DWD would have to take on.

Not a bad strategy on its face, although I'd still like to see more when it comes to dealing with the real reason for Wisconsin's alleged skills gap- the low wages that it pays to these types of workers. But what's interesting to me is where the money is coming from.

On January 8, 2014, JFC retained $32,900,000 GPR in 2013-14 and $2,500,000 GPR in 2014-15 in the Committee's general program supplementation appropriation that were related to 2013-15 amounts reserved for WEDC programs and operations expenses. Joint Finance chose to retain these monies due to surplus segregated state and WEDC fund balances that existed during the 2013-15 biennium. The amount of GPR monies that would be transferred to DWD under these provisions reflects the same amount of money that the Committee chose to retain related to WEDC. As a result of these provisions and previous actions by Joint Finance, all of the funds that the Committee chose to retain related to WEDC's budget on January 8, 2014, would be reallocated for DWD grants, services, and administrative costs associated with these proposed provisions.

That's right, the Governor wants to use left-over WEDC money to pay for these grants, instead of using the surplus funds. If I didn't know better, I'd say the guys at the Capitol are realizing that WEDC's giveaway strategy isn't as effective a job-creator as improving the talent poll, which would be a good sign if I thought it would continue. Somehow, I don't think this connection will be made on right-wing talk radio.

Also, will this same level of investment be repeated for the next budget for 2015-'17, and/or will the $35.4 million of funding be restored to WEDC? If so, there has to be money found in the next budget for both of these items to pay - in a budget that is projected to have a deficit of more than $800 million if Walker's tax cuts go through.

The second item was revealed today, as both the Assembly and Senate introduced bills at Walker's request that'll increase road spending by $43 million in the next 5 months. This is a version of what I had called for since the surplus was revealed, and certainly would help fill in needs after this harsh winter. Jason Stein has a good rundown of the plans in the Journal-Sentinel, which would go to additional state highway maintenance between now and June 30.

The additional proposed spending would mean that the roads fund would end the budget on June 30, 2015, with $41.6 million instead of the $84.6 million that is currently projected.

The fiscal bureau report also warned that account faces a $336.2 million shortfall in the next two-year budget.

On top of that, another $775 million will be needed during that period to pay for the Zoo Interchange and Hoan Bridge, though the Department of Transportation will bond for part of those Milwaukee-area projects.

So as I've mentioned before, that's over $1 billion of needs that have to paid and/or borrowed for in the next budget. It is good that the one-time shot of road spending is set up in a way that doesn't add to this structural deficit, being a true Keynesian stimulus program. But just because it's the right thing to invest in doesn't mean that the Walker Administration is choosing the right way to pay for it.

Instead of paying down some of the hundreds of millions of dollars being borrowed for road building, the Walker plan just spends more Transportation Funds. That strikes me as an odd choice, as reducing the amount of borrowing would save more money in the future with no additional debt to pay back, and would clear up flexibility for future years. And to pay for the $1 billion in extra needs between 2015 and 2017, the revenues still have to be found, either through transfers from the General Fund (which drives up the General Fund deficit even more), even more borrowing (and even more debt costs) , gas tax increases (Walker and WisGOP have been insistent on not doing this), or.....installing tolls (good luck with that one!).

So while the DWD and DOT bills do seem to offer a good short-term benefit for our economy, and in areas that I believe are more productive than cutting taxes for people who might not reinvest the funds in useful places, it could be paid for in a more responsible manner for the long-term. And taking away the one-time boost in Workforce Development and highway funds after 2015 could reveal Walker's move as an empty pander instead of one that could sustainably expand Wisconsin's economy.

As mentioned before, this plan to spend more while not raising revenues and caring about long-term implications on the budget isn't just a hallmark of the Walker campaign of the last 2 years, but also sounds suspiciously like another Dubya whose fiscal policies should have thrown in the dustbin of history.

Dale's Koo-Koo for Koch whoring!

It takes a lot to go into the upcoming irresponsible tax giveaway that Gov Walker wants the State Legislature to sign onto, and I'll get into that over the next week or so. Instead, I want to discuss this budget-related press release from State Rep. Dale (Koo-Koo) Kooyenga, and show just ridiculous these supply-siders are.

Let's go with Koo-Koo's claims individually.

Opponents of the Governor’s plan argue that the structural deficit should be lower in order to make the state more fiscally solvent. However, the structural deficit is not necessarily a good measure of financial solvency. In fact, a transfer of money to the rainy day fund increases the structural deficit! Even if every single penny of the $976 million surplus is placed in the rainy day fund, the structural deficit would still increase.

This is mostly BS. The only way this is remotely true is that a deposit to the rainy day fund reduces the carryover amount that goes into the next budget. But it has NOTHING to do with how revenues vs. expenses match up for 2015-'17, as the LFB memo on the fiscal outlook with the projected surplus points out.

Table 4- LFB memo, Jan. 22, 2014, no rainy day fund transfer
2015-'16 Revenues- $15.503 billion
2015-'16 Expenses- $15.369 billion

Table 7, LFB memo, Jan. 22, 2014, w/ rainy day transfer
2015-'16 Revenues- $15.503 billion
2015-'16 Expenses- $15.369 billion

See, ZERO DIFFERENCE. So Strike 1 for Koo-Koo. Here's another doozy from Kooyenga.

$440 million of Governor Walker’s $976 million plan is going towards strengthening the financial health of Wisconsin’s State Government. $117 million will be deposited into the rainy day fund. Additionally, $323 million will facilitate adjusting the withholding income tax tables. Adjusting the withholding tables means less of your money is subject to an interest free loan to the state. Your loan to the state represents a state liability, very similar to a debt, and adjusting the withholding tables means Wisconsin is paying off $323 million in debt.

This is a whole lotta hope and spin. First of all, Walker's tax cut bill doesn't force a $117 million transfer to the Budget Stabilization (rainy day) Fund, it just assumes that the state will get a significant amount of revenues above what is budgeted, after the tax cuts goes into effect. And then 50% of that excess, or $117 million, goes into the rainy day fund. With 6 months yet to be measured in the 2013-'14 fiscal year and the full 2014-'15 year to come, along with NONE of the previous Koo-Koo tax cuts taking effect in the 6 months that we had above-trend revenues, that's quite a gamble.

Second, the $323 million "saved" from changing the withholding tables isn't "lower debt", as Koo-Koo tries to imply, but trades letting people take home more pay now, instead of having the same amount of money refunded to them later. In fact, it's a one-time revenue INCREASE in the next budget (as shown on Table 4 of the LFB analysis), because people won't get as high a tax refund from the state as they're used to for the 2014 and 2015 tax years. Koo-Koo is just hoping people spend their up-front money sooner than later, and that it leads to a multiplier effect that adds to job and income growth (HAH!). It's the equivalent of a one-year "tax rebate check" that gets paid back in later years. Ask George Bush how well that warded off the recession in 2008.

Oh, and speaking of Bush, here's Koo-Koo's next claim.

This is the third time that the Legislature is discussing tax cuts in Wisconsin in less than a year. Every time a tax cut is announced and therefore the previous projected deficit becomes a surplus, the same structural deficit chorus criticizes the plan. In February 2013, the Governor introduced the biannual budget. This budget received criticism for having a modest structural deficit. In May 2013, revised tax revenue numbers eliminated the structural deficit. Immediately, the Legislature introduced another round of tax cuts and reforms and once again, dissenters said we should not cut taxes because of structural deficits. The additional tax cuts were adopted in the budget despite the objections. In October 2013, Governor Walker advocated for another $100 million in property tax cuts. For the third time, dissenters raised concerns over structural deficits. In January 2014, the state announced that a projected structural deficit was now a structural surplus. Governor Walker announced another tax cut. Despite the detractors being incorrect on their previous three structural deficit warnings, the same group now warns tax cuts are irresponsible because of a projected structural deficit.

So Koo-Koo says because we've had a bunch of upside revenue surprises for the last year, there's nothing to worry about. I mean, the $5.6 trillion in projected federal surpluses from 2001-2011 that Dubya used to shove through his first round of tax cuts held up, right? There weren't two stock market crashes or two recessions or Middle Eastern wars that broke out in that time period to change those surplus numbers and make the tax cuts a fiscal hamstring, were there?

Lastly, Koo-Koo decides to appeal to authority.

A recent survey by George Mason University rated the financial solvency of states’ budgets. Of the ten most solvent states, five of the states do not have an income tax and the remaining five states have generally low tax burdens. The top ten most insolvent states all have an income tax and are generally high tax states. In conclusion, lowering taxes leads to economic growth and economic growth leads to financial solvency for the state’s government and its citizens. Wisconsin’s greatest obstacle is our reputation for being a high tax state. The evidence shows that states with low taxes, or no income taxes, are more likely to be solvent.

Koo-Koo is referencing a study from the Mercatus Center at George Mason. And he shouldn't. The Center for Media and Democracy's Sourcewatch tells you why.

The Mercatus Center was founded and is funded by the Koch Family Foundations. According to financial records, the Koch family has contributed more than thirty million dollars to George Mason, much of which has gone to the Mercatus Center, a nonprofit organization. Democratic strategist Rob Stein described the Mercatus Center as "ground zero for deregulation policy in Washington.”

The Mercatus Center has engaged in campaigns involving deregulation, especially environmental deregulation. It now fills the role once played by the economics department at Chicago University as the originator of extreme neoliberal ideas. Fourteen of the 23 regulations that George W Bush put on his hitlist were, according to the Wall Street Journal, first suggested by academics working at the Mercatus Centre.[1]...

The Mercatus Center was founded as the Center for Market Processes by former economist Rich Fink, executive vice president of Koch Industries and former president of the Koch Foundations, who went on to found Citizens for a Sound Economy. Fink heads Koch Industries’ lobbying operation in Washington. In addition, Fink is the president of the Charles G. Koch Charitable Foundation, the president of the Claude R. Lambe Charitable Foundation, a director of the Fred C. and Mary R. Koch Foundation, and a director and co-founder, with David Koch, of the Americans for Prosperity Foundation. In the early 1980s the center moved to George Mason University. It merged with the Center for the Study of Public Choice during 1998 to become the James M. Buchanan Center for Political Economy. The Mercatus Center brand was developed in 1999 from the JBC.....

In addition to being funded by the Charles G. Koch Foundation, the Mercatus Center also has ties to several prominent right-wing gropus, including the American Legislative Exchange Council (ALEC) and National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB).

In other words, Koo-Koo is Koch-whoring, quoting arbitrary measures designed to reach a certain right-wing, low-tax conclusion. Sorry Koo-Koo, but outside of the 262 bubble-world, you need a real source before I even consider buying your bullcrap.

But then again, Koo-Koo was also the main voice behind the failed expansion of charter schools in the state legislature at a hearing last month, sitting side-by-side with a voucher lobbyist who was a trusted advisor in putting together the bill.

I think this is being done because Rep. Kooyenga realizes that Paul Ryan has put together a great career in saying Koch lies with a straight, endearing face, and wants to follow in his footsteps. And while Purty Mouth Pau-LIE has done quite well, Rep. Kooyenga, it doesn't change the axiom that states "If you're lyin', you're losin'."

Supply-siders have nothing....other than billionaire greedheads padding their pockets.