Thursday, April 17, 2014

Quick March jobs analysis

Today's Wisconsin jobs report in a nutshell.

Jobs up 6,400 in private sector for March.

BUT jobs revised DOWN 3,700 in February, which means net is +2,700 jobs, which is below the national rate, and the Walker jobs gap grows by another 1,000.

And only 900 private sector jobs added for the first 3 months of 2014. Flat-out awful.

BUT household survey shows 21,500 more Wisconsinites are working, which is how the unemployment rate can fall from. 6.3% to 5.9% in those 3 months.

Which means either pretty much every job a Wisconsinite got since the start of the year was in the Twin Cities or Chicago, or one of these surveys are wrong.

I'll have more analysis when I have the time, but them's the numbers.

3 comments:

  1. And what has the Flagship WEDC done? Nothing to speak about, http://newiprogressive.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=4013:wedc-job-numbers-shows-massive-county-disparity-in-economic-development&catid=40:the-business-news&Itemid=57 This is the real situation in WI.

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  2. Here's the Real story in WI, In relation to UI,
    http://newiprogressive.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=4013:wedc-job-numbers-shows-massive-county-disparity-in-economic-development&catid=40:the-business-news&Itemid=57

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  3. Or the agricultural or public sectors.

    For the first three months of this year, as you say, the total jobs (CES) have been +300 and employment (CPS) +21,432.

    I've mentioned before how the CES estimates for 2013Q4 performance seem unreasonably high (+24,300). I suggest the last 3 months' disparity between the two surveys is most likely due to a return to normal from the December 2013 overestimate.

    September 2013 - March 2014, CES shows +24,600 and CPS shows +32,442. Not so different.

    Also worth noting with the March report is that the asking rate to achieve 250,000 jobs by December now exceeds this century's record one-month gain (+14,400, set in September 2003).

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