Friday, November 18, 2016

Popular vote tracker shows Trump not legit in US or WIsconsin

Wanted to direct you to a link that I've been checking a couple of times a day for the last week, and that's David Wasserman (of the Cook Political Report) tracking of the popular vote for president. The number most are focusing on is the total popular vote, which has Hillary Clinton up on Donald Trump by over 1.4 million votes as I write this (47.9% to 46.8%), but what's also intriguing is that all 50 states and DC are listed, as is the total turnout.

Nationwide, there are currently 2% more votes cast in the 2016 election for president vs the 2012 one, an increase of more than 2.5 million votes (and it'll likely be well over 3 million when we are done counting. But if you dig into the 4 Midwestern that flipped from Democrat Barack Obama to Republican Donald Trump, you'll notice that voter turnout generally goes the other way.

Change in voter turnout, 2012 vs 2016
Iowa -1.1%
Michigan +1.3%
Ohio -4.6%
Wisconsin -4.0%

All 4 of these states have two-term Republican governors, and all but Iowa had GOP-run legislatures that have passed voter suppression measures since taking power in 2010.

Now add in this article from Bruce Murphy at Urban Milwaukee, titled "An Epidemic of Voter Suppression," which talks about the decreased turnout in Wisconsin, and the exceptionally large decrease in the blue-voting City of Milwaukee.
Neil Albrecht, executive director of the Milwaukee Election Commission, told the Journal Sentinel the greatest declines were “in the districts we projected would have the the most trouble with ID requirements.” That included four districts in the city with the most “transient, high poverty” residents struggling to meet the photo ID requirements. “We had a lot of calls” about such problems, he added.

Milwaukee also has more than 50,000 students attending colleges and universities like UW-Milwaukee, Marquette and MSOE. And university students, says McGrath, often have drivers licenses from outside the state that can’t be used to vote without additional identification forms. Many, she says, are first time voters who can be confused about the new requirements.

Former Republican legislative aide Todd Allbaugh testified in federal court that Republicans lawmakers were “giddy” about the Voter ID law and its likely impact on elections. As he recalled, Sen. Mary Lazich (R-New Berlin) said “Hey, we’ve got to think about what this would mean for the neighborhoods around Milwaukee and the college campuses.” Republican Congressman Glenn Grothman predicted that Photo ID could swing the presidential election to his party.

As [Molly] McGrath [of voter-rights group Voter Riders] puts it, “I think it’s more than coincidence that in areas legislators were targeting, like low-income neighborhoods in Milwaukee, we’ve seen a decrease in turnout.”
As I mentioned last week, if the Cities of Kenosha, Racine and Milwaukee had merely matched their 2012 turnout with the same Clinton vs. Trump percentage that we saw last week, then Clinton would likely have won the state.

Combine that with the fact that late-deciders in Wisconsin broke 2-to-1 for Trump, making the pivotal difference in a state that Trump won by less than 1%, with much of that late shift to Trump seeming to be related to less-than-truthful information from Russia/Wikileaks and FBI Director James Comey. Even given the weakness of Hillary Clinton as a candidate, I have a hard time buying that Trump would have won in Wisconsin if either 1. We didn't have the post-2012 voter suppression laws on the books or 2. We had the information we know of today- that the "Hillary emails" items were bullshit and that Russia was openly interfering in the election. I'm not even going to go into Trump's appointments of racists and incompetents to his Cabinet and top advisor positions, which I would hope has more than a few Wisconsinites already regretting their vote for the Donald.

With that in mind, and with Trump falling below Mitt Romney's 2012 vote share for the nation as a whole, I think citizens are completely correct to resist and protest the likelihood of Trump becoming president. Drumpf has no consent of the governed, and even the Electoral College "victory" that he has on Clinton is questionable due to lower turnout in key states, which is a result of the GOP-influenced voter suppression. This isn't legitimate, and should not be treated as such, and I would hope there are 38 patriotic Electors that might step in, admit this, and choose a 3rd person that will handle the power of the presidency responsibly.

The Electoral College exists for a reason, and this election is it. And not in the "Trump wins with less popular votes" way.

1 comment:

  1. Don't think there's something that happened in Wisconsin that suppressed the vote? Take a look at the popular vote tracker today, and note this stat.

    Total turnout, 2012
    Wisconsin 3,068,434
    Minnesota 2,936,561

    Total turnout, 2016
    Minnesota 2,944,950 (+0.3%)
    Wisconsin 2,944,620 (-4.0%)

    And Wisconsin had a hotly-contested Senate race while Minnesota had no Senate race. There's no reason we should have had our turnout drop that much while Minnesota's went up....other than the obvious.