Ahead of that report, Forbes' "Budget Guy" Stan Collender has a great rundown today on what the CBO will likely say, and how things are likely worse than the already-concerning situation that the CBO will lay out.
Although there have been private sector projections for months (including my post from last October) that the government's red ink will hit and exceed a trillion dollars for years to come, this will be the first report by Congress's official budget watchdog since last year's big tax cut and this year's spending deal were enacted that will show the deficit rising precipitously and staying at that very high level through the next 10 years.And if any of you righties try to play the "But...but...Obama" game, Collender will remind you that 2018 is a very different circumstance from the economic circumstance that Obama faced upon taking office, when we were in freefall from the Great Recession.
The official CBO projections are likely to be lower than the budget deficits that actually occur. CBO's report is based on current law and makes no political judgements about what Congress and the president will do in the future. That means the deficit projections will be based on the presumption that the tax cuts enacted last year that currently phase out will in fact end. That means the CBO forecast will assume that future revenues will be higher and the deficit lower compared to what is likely to occur.
The same is true for spending. For this report, the Congressional Budget Office doesn't presume that any of the reductions proposed in the Trump 2019 budget will be enacted. That will increase the deficit outlook compared to what the White House will say it will be.
For the record (and before the trolls come out to play), there were indeed four consecutive trillion dollar federal deficits during the Obama administration from fiscal 2009-2012. Those deficits were primarily caused by the Great Recession and were temporary. By contrast, the trillion dollar Trump deficits are permanent changes to the federal budget outlook caused by enacted reductions in revenues and increases in spending.Collender also notes that this will likely cause the typical Foxlandia analysts and other Trumpkins to claim the CBO is "biased" and that the spiraling deficits are "fake news". But the release of the US Treasury statement on Wednesday will likely confirm that revenues are slipping below prior predictions (especially given that it'll be related to tax refunds in March), and include new year-end estimates that we can compare to the now-laughable original predictions of a $666 billion deficit for this year.
It's already worse than this
One day after the Treasury Statement is released, Collender reminds us of one last bit of fiscal insanity that the GOP is planning to pull this week.
A Hypocritical Boost For A Balanced Budget Constitutional Amendment. The House is currently scheduled to vote this Thursday on Republican-sponsored amendment to the U.S. Constitution that would require the federal budget to be balanced every year. Many of the same members who voted for the tax cut and spending increase that spiked the deficit to the high levels CBO will be projecting will shamelessly use this report to justify their vote for this amendment.And naturally, the Koched-up GOP's response to the spiraling deficit that their idiotic tax-and-spend policy has caused isn't to admit that their tax cuts are the problem and make the comfortable rich pay a small amount more toward getting things back in order. Instead, House Speaker Paul Ryan has said he would like to cut Social Security and Medicare benefits for everyday people who have spent decades paying into them, and will rely on those programs to get by in their post-working years.
Which is just the way the Kochs have wanted it for years, as a certain "non-Democrat" warned us about years ago. This clip has only gotten more relevant over time, and not only includes Wisconsin's own Paul Ryan, but also new Trump economic advisor Larry Kudlow.
These Koch puppets have been wrong about US finances and their "solutions" to the "problem" for decades. Isn't it well past time that they get kicked off the stage, and this time KEEP THEM OFF THE STAGE for being such fiscal failures?