Thursday, March 7, 2019

As predicted, Walker job growth and total people working weren't as good as the year said

I told you to look out for the new Wisconsin jobs report today, coming on the heels of the bad performance in the "gold standard" Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages(QCEW) which I discussed in this post.

That's because the January report would feature revisions based on that QCEW report. And sure enough, that Wisconsin jobs report came out today with sizable downgrades in job growth.

Revisions from previously-reported Dec 2018 Wis jobs figures
All jobs -17,100
Private sector jobs -13,400
Manufacturing -12,900

Conveniently, we didn't know that Scott Walker's Department of Workforce Development was this far off with their estimations before November's election. But fortunately that guy got the boot anyway.

And because I'm going to be a nice guy, I'll credit the 6,000 private sector jobs added in January (4,900 overall) to Walker's total. Meaning here's where we stand for Scotty's and WisGOP's 8 years in power.

Job growth, Wisconsin Jan 2011-Jan 2019
All jobs +248,800
Private Sector +261,100

Oh, so close on that total jobs number to 250,000! But we did make it for private sector jobs (barely). Of course, Scotty claimed in 2010 that we would get there in 4 years, and we didn't even get there in 8.

And before you think that job growth of 31,000 a year is some kind of accomplishment, let me give you some appropriate context, using the recently released January figures from Minnesota, as well as the overall figures in a country that added nearly 20 million jobs over those 8 years.

Job growth, all jobs Jan 2011-Jan 2019
Wis. +248,800
Minn +305,200

Wis. +9.08%
Minn +11.47%
U.S. +15.07%

In addition, the revisions reiterated more than ever thathe Wisconsin's low 3.0% unemployment is due to a lack of workers over actual jobs and economic growth.

Revisions to Wis labor force, employment Jan 2019
Labor force -23,400
Employed -23,700

Change in Wis labor force, employment Jan 2018-Jan 2019
Labor force -14,300
Employed -15,700

In fact, a check of the updated figures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that Wisconsin's labor force and people "employed" peaked during Q1 2018, and declined consistently over the next 9 months.

All of that Walker and WisGOP spin that "Tony Evers inherited a great situation?"

1. "Thanks Obama!"

2. "BULLSHIT. People are leaving this state in droves because of your regressive garbage. Sit down and let the adults work our way out of the stagnant mess you left."

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