Monday, August 5, 2019

Wall Street and Trumpain stupidity = a big drop in the DOW

Here's a 5-day farce in multiple parts.

PART 1 - After stocks drop in May, over the next 2 months things look better. Why? Because of vague promises from the Trump Administration about new trade talks with China, and rumblings that the Federal Reserve may start cutting interest rates due to the economy slowing in both the US and the rest of the world.

Wall Street reaction - WE'RE GETTING MOAR COCAINE! PUMP, PUMP, PUMP!


PART 2 - July 31 - Fed releases ends a two-day meeting and releases their decision. Rates cut by 25 basis points, but given that the economy is still growing, we'll wait on the data to see what we do over the next few months.

Wall Street reaction - NOT ENOUGH COCAINE! SELL, SELL, SELL. DOW drops 420 points in 20 minutes.

Morning of April 1- Reports show manufacturing drops to its lowest levels in several years, and construction spending contracted in June.

Wall Street reaction - ECONOMY SLOWING MEANS MOAR RATE CUTS AND MOAR COCAINE! BUY BACK!


PART 3 - Afternoon of Aug. 1 - "Tariff man" returns to the White House. The next day, China indicates they will retaliate with countermeasures against US exports.

Result- DOW drops around 650 points over those 1 1/2 days.


PART 4- Chinese currency has now devalued to the point that it takes more than 7 yuan to buy $1, which would cripple US exports, and make US tariffs less effective (since Chinese imports become cheaper anyway). In addition, the Chinese government says it will no longer buy US agricultural products.

Wall Street reaction - PANIC!


DOW drops another 767 points, making for a total drop of more than 1,400 points since the Fed meeting on Wednesday.

Tonight- Trump Administration labels China as a currency manipulator, and will make that case to the International Monetary Fund.

Wall Street reaction so far - DOW futures are currently below 25,400, or more than 300 points below today's close. Hoo boy....

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