Endangered GOPs ask for Dem Guv Evers to revive deal, careers

After the "blockbuster" deal between Gov Evers and GOP Legislative leaders collapsed last week in the Wisconsin State Senate, I noticed that 6 GOP members of the Wisconsin Assembly sent a letter to Governor Evers asking for work to continue on a deal.

We appreciate the progress made through those discussions, particularly efforts focused on returning surplus funds to taxpayers, providing property tax relief, supporting schools, and helping hardworking Wisconsinites manage rising costs. These are the kinds of issues where collaboration matters most. While we may not agree on every issue, we remain committed to working toward responsible outcomes and ensuring politics does not stand in the way of doing what is best for the people of Wisconsin.

Which is why, despite last week’s setback, we encourage you to call the Legislature back into Special Session to continue work on the common-sense reforms that received broad bipartisan support through months of negotiation. The failure of this legislation to advance does not change the reality that Wisconsin families are still facing rising costs and growing pressure on household budgets. We cannot allow political gamesmanship or ideological extremes on either side of the aisle to prevent meaningful progress on issues where common ground clearly exists. Our responsibility to do what is best for Wisconsin did not end with one vote, and our work is far from over.

It is no coincidence that the senders are the 6 GOP Assembly members remaining that will face the voters in districts where Kamala Harris got her highest percentage of votes in GOP-held Assembly districts.

Based on what I’ve been seeing in the Generic Ballot polls, the results from April’s Supreme Court election in Wisconsin, and the size of typical Dem overperformance nationwide, I’m going to assume a baseline case of Dems +8 for November in this state.

So if you look at this map from Marquette University professor John Johnson of the 2024 presidential election in Wisconsin by Assembly district, then move all of these results 9 points toward the Dems (GOP +1 to Dems +8), and let’s see which seats would be likely to flip.

Alternatively, we could go look at our last midterm electorate from 2022, where Governor Evers won by 3.5%, and push those numbers 5 points towards Democrats, that also could be a good base to go off of.

Same story, if not more so with a more-engaged midterm electorate (which trends Dem these days).

Now let’s look at the State Senate map from the 2022 Governor's race.

And lookie there! It’s Howard Marklein’s 17th District that’s very blue, among others! No wonder why he's getting the PAC run by Robbin' Vos' wife to run ads claiming how this guy gets along so well with Guv Evers!

I think the fact that this is shaping up to be a Dem year also explains why many Dems in the Legislature didn't want the "blockbuster deal" to go through. Yes, I think it is worthy to discuss having more fiscal cushion for the next 3 years - we've seen inflation go well past projections for this year, and it does seem like we are heading toward some kind of cutback in consumer spending and a pileup of job losses. And it becomes hard to do significant change to our failing K-12 financing system or transportation investment abilities if there isn't any money around to do so.

But there's also something to be said about sending a reminder to Governor Evers that sometimes you need to act politically to help your party, instead of talking them down when they don't follow along with a plan you and the GOP came up with. Winnebago County Executive and former Assembly Dem Leader Gordon Hintz made that clear in a response to Evers' complaints about Legis Dems earlier this week.

In other words, Dems chose you in the 2018 primary, Tony. Dems stood up for you and upheld all of your vetoes when the Legislature was gerrymandered in favor of tbe GOP throughout your governorship. Now why don't you do US a favor and not bail out these vulnerable Republicans before an election many of them are set to lose, and allow us Dems a better chance to win a trifecta and have the resources to clean up the mess they have left behind.

Yes, I know there’s a long time between now and November. We don’t know who will be the Dem candidate at the top running for Governor, etc. But you sure can see why Dems would be favored to win big, and why a lot of Republicans would want to be seen as independent and conciliatory toward Dems instead of telling people about all of the GOP BS they have supported over the years, and how they blocked most attempts at progress in this state by Governor Evers and other Dems throughout the last decade.

And so when Governor Evers tries to work out a deal that I believe would have helped Wisconsinites and schools in getting through the next year, the Dems in the Legislature that are likely to be in office (and power?) beyond January 2027 said "NOT SO FAST, MY FRIEND! We aren't letting the GOPs in the Legislature off that easy!"

It may not be great governing, but it might be good politics. And it might lead to a better payoff for both Dems and everyday Wisconsinites next year, to recover what has been lost over the last 15 years in this state, and restore some long-needed balance and fairness in our taxing and economic system, as well as the services and investments that WisGOPs have chosen to defund.