Been a bit busy with Craft Beer Week, good weather, and other duties, so I haven't had a lot of time to discuss Tuesday's election results, and if there's anything to be read into them.
First, I don't really see much importance that nearly as many Republicans voted for Walker as others voted for the real Dems and Arthur Kohl-Riggs. Ok, we didn't know that about 20% of the state's voting popuilation consists of right-wing Walker-supporting wack-jobs that have nothing better to do than follow the orders of right-wing radio hosts? Big freaking deal. The real question is where can Walker find at least another 500,000 to support him that were't have their little show of force on May 8? I'm not sure they exist, at least in Wisconsin.
The number that jumped out for me wasn't just that all 4 Dem Senators won their recall primary over the fake Dem by huge margins, but who won by the most- Lori Compas in District 13. Compas is running in allegedly the reddest district of the 4, and one where recalled Senator Scott Fitzgerald actively recruited a huge Walker supporter from Lake Mills to be the candidate, but Lori won 72-28%, and got more than 21,000 votes in the process (which is nearly as many votes as Fitzgerald's opponents got in the 2010 general election, which had 2 times as many votes). Fitz has to be freaked about seeing this level of support for Compas, and Foolish Fitz didn't do himself any favors this weekend by implying that Compas's husband did all the heavy lifting in the recall drive that Lori headed up. Which led the Compas family/campaign to put together this awesome video (full-screen it and check out the kids' t-shirts, SWEET!).
And that's why Lori Compas is the American Dream, and that's why she has a real chance to win this thing. Walker has to be furious with Fitz for being such a dimwit, because Walker won Fitz's district by 26 points in 2010, and if Lori beats Fitz or comes close, you can bet Walker will lose most of those 26 points out of his 2010 lead as well. When you remember that Walker only won by 5.77% statewide in 2010, even a 12-point swing would equal a sizable Walker loss.
As for going inside the gov's race, other than high numbers for Walker in the Green Bay-Appleton area, (an area Dems really suffered in during 2010 and have to pick it up in), and comparatively large numbers of voters in the City of Milwaukee (over 35% turnout, above the state average) and Barrett's support in his hometown (over 70% of the Dem primary vote), I didn't see too much in the Guv numbers to point out. And I'm not concerned about allegedly lower-than-expected Dem turnout, because I can personally speak to several people I know that didn't vote on May 8 (they were happy with any Dem that won), but these people have actively marched in protest rallies and will certainly be there to vote for Barrett on June 5. Can Walker and WisGOP say the same?
One thing I did notice is the big drop-off in the number of people in Waukesha County that voted in the Governor's election (just under 70% for Walker and fake Dem Gladys Huber, by the way), and the comparatively small amount that voted in the Liutenant Governor's election (114,803 voted in the Gov election, but only 52,328 voted for Lieutenant Gov). This was a "drop-off rate" of 54.42%, and it was well above the state drop-off average of 41.28% outside of Waukesha County, and it made me wonder if Kathy Nickolaus was pre-marking absentee ballots again, like she did in 2005. So I decided to take a look at the numbers of the places with the highest turnouts in the state to see if there was any pattern to be seen (the one exception to this analysis is the parts of Milwaukee Country that are not in the City of Milwaukee, because the County doesn't have the unofficial results up on its site. If anyone can find it, I'll greatly appreciate it and add the info). What I'm going to do is combine the Dem vote (minus Huber) and Arthur Kohl-Riggs' (who will be listed as AKR) total share of the vote, and then see how much of a drop-off there was in who voted for Lieutenant Governor, along with winner Mahlon Mitchell's percentage of the vote.
May 8 recall primary vote in large Wis. counties
Dane County- 78.77% Dem/AKR, 68.64% Mitchell, 27.91% drop-off
City of Milw- 78.00% Dem/AKR, 58.76% Mitchell, 27.76% drop-off
Rock County- 60.32% Dem/AKR, 55.09% Mitchell, 35.26% drop-off
Statewide- 52.05% Dem/AKR, 52.23% Mitchell,42.43% drop-off
Racine County- 50.40% Dem/AKR, 47.95% Mitchell, 36.76% drop-off
Winnebago Co.- 48.85% Dem/AKR, 50.17% Mitchell, 44.30% drop-off
Brown County- 44.11% Dem/AKR, 49.04% Mitchell, 45.06% drop-off
Outagamie Co.- 43.29% Dem/AKR, 50.73% Mitchell, 43.88% drop-off
Waukesha Co.- 30.85% Dem/AKR, 33.67% Mitchell, 54.42% drop-off
Washington Co.- 26.53% Dem/AKR, 31.23% Mitchell, 56.81% drop-off
So it certainly seems to be a pretty good correlation between a lower Dem/AKR vote and Mitchell vote, and a higher drop-off rate, and the state numbers are right around the breakeven point for this (52%). This also shows itself in the fact that Mitchell scored below the Dem/AKR figures in the high-Dem areas, and above the Dem/AKR figures in the low Dem areas. Given the huge drop-offs in Bagger counties like Washington and Waukesha, I bet fake Dem Isaac Weix is pretty bent at the number of people in the 262 who didn't fill out the Lt. Gov. ballots, because he might have had a chance to win if they did, because the heavy-Dem counties dropped off enough to give an opening. Apparently they needed Sykes and Belling to also tell them who to vote for in that race, and since they didn't get their cue, they just dropped off the ballot (if you believe the GOP nut officials in those counties didn't have the Nickolaus-style pre-marked "Walker" ballots, that is).
The one outlier for a lower drop-off seemed to be Racine County, who also had a Senate recall primary in much of it, so I wanted to combine that with numbers from two other prominent counties with recall primaries- Marathon County (District 29) and Eau Claire County (District 23), and see if that may have been a reason.
May 8 recall primary vote in large Wis. counties
Eau Claire Co.- 58.53% Dem/AKR, 47.99% Mitchell, 28.61% drop-off
Racine County- 50.40% Dem/AKR, 47.95% Mitchell, 36.76% drop-off
Marathon Co.- 44.71% Dem/AKR, 46.76% Mitchell, 45.94% drop-off
The lower-than-expected drop-off amounts seem to be the case in Eau Claire and Racine Counties, while Marathon County acted more like similar-scoring places in Brown and Outagamie Counties. So I'd call it an "inconsistent" correlation on turnout, and Eau Claire County's lower numbers for Mitchell vs. Dem/AKR is a bit off as well.
Bottom line- the numbers aren't a big indicator at this time, because if the June 5 election turnout matches 2006 and 2010, you're looking at another 60-65% of voters entering the booths vs. the amount on May 8, and we'll see who those people are. I'm thinking that the more people that turn out, the more it helps Barrett, and some polls don't seem to want to get this, and sticks with samples that are more like who voted on May 8. I'll break some of this down more in the next 3 weeks, but I figure this is enough number geekery for a given night.
Sunday, May 13, 2012
Happy Mother's Day- Walker Admin Family Care incompetence may cost Wisconsin $900 million
This week could feature a bombshell in the recall election races, and not just because Walkergate criminal Darlene Wink is getting sentenced on Tuesday. The real event could be if the Obama Administration decides that the Walker Administration has not kept up with Medicaid rules on Family Care, and ends up yanking hundreds of millions of dollars in funding.
Here's how we got here. The Walker Administration was given a short-term waiver to implement the Family Care increases, and had until April 15 to tell the Center for Medicaid and CHIP Services (CMS) about how they would formally notify Wisconsinites eligible for Family Care about the program, and get the word out to senior centers and other Family Care providers. If the state fails to do this, then the CMS has the right to pull its share of Federal Medicaid funding from this program after Monday, which was would be a huge hit for the state, as the feds' help is estimated at $897 million in the most recently-completed fiscal year.
While DHS Secretary Dennis Smith released a letter last month which gave a good rundown of the state's long-term care programs, it didn't say anything about the CMS signing off on the state of Wisconsin's plan for outreach on Family Care. Smith has since sent letters that basically have said "Trust us, we're fine," but there has not been confirmation from the Feds agreeing with that.
State Rep. Jon Richards and other Legislative Democrats aren't buying Smith's story, and want the confirmation that the feds are cool with the DHS's plans laid out in writing. They're right to be skeptical, because we know the Walker people will deceive on this, because they already got caught lying about the Family Care program last December, when Walker held a press conference claiming that he was the one who decided to remove the Family Care caps, when in reality the Obama Administration told him to do it, or else lose the feds' money.
It's sure taken a while for that Family Care expansion to get itself moving. 10 days ago, a group idetnfying itself as an information group for "Northeast Wisconsin Family Care" said that DHS was still "catching up' on getting the people enrolled who were left off due the original caps, and couldn't enroll new people that were entitled to be on Family Care:
No wonder the Barrett Campaign made the following call-out of the Walker Administration for its fake budget surplus announcement last week. This is the flip-side of the sketchy revenue numbers- intentionally understating spending that has to happen .
Here's how we got here. The Walker Administration was given a short-term waiver to implement the Family Care increases, and had until April 15 to tell the Center for Medicaid and CHIP Services (CMS) about how they would formally notify Wisconsinites eligible for Family Care about the program, and get the word out to senior centers and other Family Care providers. If the state fails to do this, then the CMS has the right to pull its share of Federal Medicaid funding from this program after Monday, which was would be a huge hit for the state, as the feds' help is estimated at $897 million in the most recently-completed fiscal year.
While DHS Secretary Dennis Smith released a letter last month which gave a good rundown of the state's long-term care programs, it didn't say anything about the CMS signing off on the state of Wisconsin's plan for outreach on Family Care. Smith has since sent letters that basically have said "Trust us, we're fine," but there has not been confirmation from the Feds agreeing with that.
State Rep. Jon Richards and other Legislative Democrats aren't buying Smith's story, and want the confirmation that the feds are cool with the DHS's plans laid out in writing. They're right to be skeptical, because we know the Walker people will deceive on this, because they already got caught lying about the Family Care program last December, when Walker held a press conference claiming that he was the one who decided to remove the Family Care caps, when in reality the Obama Administration told him to do it, or else lose the feds' money.
It's sure taken a while for that Family Care expansion to get itself moving. 10 days ago, a group idetnfying itself as an information group for "Northeast Wisconsin Family Care" said that DHS was still "catching up' on getting the people enrolled who were left off due the original caps, and couldn't enroll new people that were entitled to be on Family Care:
Although DHS has not yet set a date for expansion, we expect that they will make a decision on timing in the next few months. However, we are planning on expansion beginning during the third quarter of 2013 and occur by county over a 12 month period. We have not yet determined the timing by county.In other words, DHS still hasn't put out a plan for adding seniors and disabled to the Family Care rolls, and are pushing off the expansion onto the next budget, despite being ordered to do it sooner than that.
No wonder the Barrett Campaign made the following call-out of the Walker Administration for its fake budget surplus announcement last week. This is the flip-side of the sketchy revenue numbers- intentionally understating spending that has to happen .
While Walker and his right wing allies gives themselves high-fives, the people of Wisconsin should know these numbers are built on sand. Almost half of this amount comes from delaying payments that will ultimately cost taxpayers more in interest. And these figures ignore the significant shortfall in the state's health programs.We'll see if the Walker Administration has a CMS letter to produce tomorrow. But if there is nothing to release, and the Walker Administration lets this slide out of pure negligence, we need to slam it into the public consciousness. I have little confidence that our media will have the knowledge or independence to understand what kind of drastic damage this administration may be imposing, but this is a potentially huge story, as it could impact tens of thousands of Wisconsin families.
Friday, May 11, 2012
Results don't matter- politics do
Needless to say, my exposure of the Walker Administration's fake budget surplus went to the back of line last night. After this meeting with billionaire heiress Diane Hendricks (an "entrepreneur" who made her money the old-fashioned way- her husband died in an accident and she inherited the company). Let's just say we'd better hear the words "Divide and Conquer" a lot in the next 25 days, OK? If so, the good guys can seal Scott Walker's fate with a kiss.
It is shockingly reminiscent of the David Koch call last year, where Walker also kissed up to a billionaire donor (or at least someone he thought was a billionaire donor) and explained in hubris-filled statements how he was planning to trick people to gain political power, and asked for some kind of "support" from the donor going forward. What a toolbox.
The same secret-society, "politics first and foremost" philosophy goes along with exempting police and fire unions from Act 10, and start listening to around 2:00 in this interview 1670 AM radio host Sly had with Madison Firefighters union president Joe Conway. Conway says that Walker dropped by Madison Local 311 during the 2010 campaign and told the union's executive board that he was going to exempt police and fire fighters because "you guys are important." Walker did this because he wanted the fire fighters' endorsement, NOT because Walker actually valued police and fire fighters as a protected class, and Conway rightfully understands that Walker would turn his back on the fire fighters the first chance he got (and indirectly did by screwing over local communities by reducing shared revenues).
Walker and WisGOP also used political gain as their motivation behind voter ID (because it directly was aimed at college students and low-income minorities in cities - both of whom trend Democratic), and the cutting of public education plays into this as well, because it will diminish the value and quality of public education, and push more people to the private and religious schools that line GOP pockets. They don't care about clean elections or improving educational outcomes. If they did, they'd set money aside for a computer database that poll workers could check off as soon as someone registered at the polls, and they'd demand full accountability measures for the private schools just like the public schools, because they'd want to see if it was working. It's all about the power and the money. PERIOD.
Another GOP scumbag who's facing the voters on June 5 gave away this game last March, when Senate Majority Leader Scott Fitzgerald admitted on Fox News in March 2011 that Act 10 wasn't about balancing the budget (and it hasn't).
But more than that, it shows that Walker modus operandi has never been trying to improve Wisconsin's economy or quality of life. IT'S ALL ABOUT THE POWER. Notice that Walker gives the answer about supporting right-to-work-for-less as a ways to "make Wisconsin a red state." The thinking is if you denigrate unions and take away their ability to raise funds and get boots on the ground, then Democrats will suffer if they're running for election because one of their sources of support isn't there.
And it illustrates the real reason Walker and Fitzgerald and other GOPs have been recalled, because they have represented a NATIONAL agenda generated out Washington D.C. and Wall Street that has nothing to do with the people of Wisconsin, except that we are being used as the guinea pigs in this political game. What they have done is treasonous, and not done to improve the results for the state of Wisconsin in any way. And that's why they and the self-absorbed trash that support these corrupt power-brokers in Fitzwalkerstan must be removed, because they do not care about bringing this state forward, or helping anyone who is not part of their rich, connected little cult.
It is shockingly reminiscent of the David Koch call last year, where Walker also kissed up to a billionaire donor (or at least someone he thought was a billionaire donor) and explained in hubris-filled statements how he was planning to trick people to gain political power, and asked for some kind of "support" from the donor going forward. What a toolbox.
The same secret-society, "politics first and foremost" philosophy goes along with exempting police and fire unions from Act 10, and start listening to around 2:00 in this interview 1670 AM radio host Sly had with Madison Firefighters union president Joe Conway. Conway says that Walker dropped by Madison Local 311 during the 2010 campaign and told the union's executive board that he was going to exempt police and fire fighters because "you guys are important." Walker did this because he wanted the fire fighters' endorsement, NOT because Walker actually valued police and fire fighters as a protected class, and Conway rightfully understands that Walker would turn his back on the fire fighters the first chance he got (and indirectly did by screwing over local communities by reducing shared revenues).
Walker and WisGOP also used political gain as their motivation behind voter ID (because it directly was aimed at college students and low-income minorities in cities - both of whom trend Democratic), and the cutting of public education plays into this as well, because it will diminish the value and quality of public education, and push more people to the private and religious schools that line GOP pockets. They don't care about clean elections or improving educational outcomes. If they did, they'd set money aside for a computer database that poll workers could check off as soon as someone registered at the polls, and they'd demand full accountability measures for the private schools just like the public schools, because they'd want to see if it was working. It's all about the power and the money. PERIOD.
Another GOP scumbag who's facing the voters on June 5 gave away this game last March, when Senate Majority Leader Scott Fitzgerald admitted on Fox News in March 2011 that Act 10 wasn't about balancing the budget (and it hasn't).
But more than that, it shows that Walker modus operandi has never been trying to improve Wisconsin's economy or quality of life. IT'S ALL ABOUT THE POWER. Notice that Walker gives the answer about supporting right-to-work-for-less as a ways to "make Wisconsin a red state." The thinking is if you denigrate unions and take away their ability to raise funds and get boots on the ground, then Democrats will suffer if they're running for election because one of their sources of support isn't there.
And it illustrates the real reason Walker and Fitzgerald and other GOPs have been recalled, because they have represented a NATIONAL agenda generated out Washington D.C. and Wall Street that has nothing to do with the people of Wisconsin, except that we are being used as the guinea pigs in this political game. What they have done is treasonous, and not done to improve the results for the state of Wisconsin in any way. And that's why they and the self-absorbed trash that support these corrupt power-brokers in Fitzwalkerstan must be removed, because they do not care about bringing this state forward, or helping anyone who is not part of their rich, connected little cult.
Thursday, May 10, 2012
The big Walker "surplus" lie (Pt. 2)- ignoring Wisconsin's horrible economic stats
Now here's the second part, where I will explain the true faultiness of DOA Secretary Mike Huebsch's claims of a Walker budget "surplus." (check Part 1, where I concede that the tax revenues look good, but that the increase is far too fragile to claim the numbers will hold up for 2 more months, and the timing is sketchy if not downright cynical and desperate) .
Let's go with this Huebsch claim first
And more importantly, Wisconsin was DEAD LAST IN THE U.S. FOR INCOME GROWTH (see page 12) in the 4th Quarter of 2011. So who cares if U.S. personal income is going up if Wisconsin is falling behind that, because we're caring about Wisconsin state income, sales and corporate taxes, which are more likely to depend on local incomes instead of what's going on nationwide. So Huebsch is trying to use the Obama Recovery to cover for the failures in Fitzwalkerstan. I would characterize that as a COMPLETE FAIL.
The next Huebsch claim also tries to use U.S. trends to mask Wisconsin's reality.
Again, Huebsch is basing this rosy scenario on the increases shown by blue line, instead of using the reality in Wisconsin, which is shown by the plummeting red line. But as before, just because things are working under Obama doesn't mean "it's working" for Wisconsin under Walker, and it's pathetically cynical for Huebsch to ignore his administration's "worst in the nation" status for jobs.
So in order for you to buy that Wisconsin will run a budget surplus for the biennium over the next 14 months, you basically have to ignore the horrible economic performance of the state since Walker has taken office. Because it is dishonest for DOA Secretary Mike Huebsch to use strong national economic stats to pad numbers for Wisconsin when the Badger State has failed to reap the benefits of the nation's recovery over the last 16 months. Past is prologue here too, so why would you believe that Wisconsin would all of sudden start matching the U.S. under Walker when it has fallen miserably short as Walker's policies have taken effect?
And worst, they know better in the Governor's Office. but they assume the average citizen doesn't, and that they can release this tricked-up report close enough to the election that people won't be able to know the difference when they go to the polls. It's typically cynical Walker politics, and Exhibit A as to why he must go, because a politician that constantly tries to sneak something over on the public who pays his salary has lost the authority to govern.
Of course, the pro-Walker Journal-Sentinel takes the numbers at face value, which is exactly what scum like Walker and Huebsch are counting on. And the J-S especially should know better, because as James Rowen reminds us, Walker lied about his budget situation constantly in Milwaukee County for political gain, often overestimating revenues to make his budget balance, or creating fake budget crisies to force cuts that were never needed. This is no different, and as Peter Barca rightfully points out in the article, this "surplus" is an Administration release that's being done well ahead of anything the LFB will figure. Don't think for a second that's a coincidence, because the LFB can't "prove" the numbers to be lies until after the recall election comes, which allows RW radio to spread this lie further.
But people like me and you know better than to take souped-up numbers at face value, nor do we ignore the reality on the ground like the Walker Administration and the J-S do. If we play this right, we'll expose this fraud and expand Walker's already-monstrous credibility gap.
Let's go with this Huebsch claim first
....the federal Bureau of Economic Analysis has issued data revisions that raised its estimates of personal income for Wisconsin. These revisions indicate that 2011 income growth was stronger than anticipated at the time of the February revenue estimates.All I can figure that the "revision" Huebsch is referring to is the Personal Income report that was released on Monday, which showed Personal income up 0.9% for the first 3 months of 2012, and at a 3.65% rate for the year. This is barely above the LFB's February estimate of 3.5%, so that's hardly much of a revision, and certainly not worth any real change to your revenue estimates.
And more importantly, Wisconsin was DEAD LAST IN THE U.S. FOR INCOME GROWTH (see page 12) in the 4th Quarter of 2011. So who cares if U.S. personal income is going up if Wisconsin is falling behind that, because we're caring about Wisconsin state income, sales and corporate taxes, which are more likely to depend on local incomes instead of what's going on nationwide. So Huebsch is trying to use the Obama Recovery to cover for the failures in Fitzwalkerstan. I would characterize that as a COMPLETE FAIL.
The next Huebsch claim also tries to use U.S. trends to mask Wisconsin's reality.
Further, the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics has released its Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages. This reported stronger growth in employment for the third quarter of 2011 than previously estimated.Well, it's certainly true that the U.S. economy grew quite a bit in the latter half of 2011, as 3rd Quarter jobs had slower but still steady growth, and then it picked up strongly in the last 3 months of the year. But the problem with applying that to Wisconsin is obvious- 3rd Quarter 2011 is when the bottom dropped out for the state's jobs, as you see the Walker jobs gap explode starting after Walker's budget became law on July 1.
Again, Huebsch is basing this rosy scenario on the increases shown by blue line, instead of using the reality in Wisconsin, which is shown by the plummeting red line. But as before, just because things are working under Obama doesn't mean "it's working" for Wisconsin under Walker, and it's pathetically cynical for Huebsch to ignore his administration's "worst in the nation" status for jobs.
So in order for you to buy that Wisconsin will run a budget surplus for the biennium over the next 14 months, you basically have to ignore the horrible economic performance of the state since Walker has taken office. Because it is dishonest for DOA Secretary Mike Huebsch to use strong national economic stats to pad numbers for Wisconsin when the Badger State has failed to reap the benefits of the nation's recovery over the last 16 months. Past is prologue here too, so why would you believe that Wisconsin would all of sudden start matching the U.S. under Walker when it has fallen miserably short as Walker's policies have taken effect?
And worst, they know better in the Governor's Office. but they assume the average citizen doesn't, and that they can release this tricked-up report close enough to the election that people won't be able to know the difference when they go to the polls. It's typically cynical Walker politics, and Exhibit A as to why he must go, because a politician that constantly tries to sneak something over on the public who pays his salary has lost the authority to govern.
Of course, the pro-Walker Journal-Sentinel takes the numbers at face value, which is exactly what scum like Walker and Huebsch are counting on. And the J-S especially should know better, because as James Rowen reminds us, Walker lied about his budget situation constantly in Milwaukee County for political gain, often overestimating revenues to make his budget balance, or creating fake budget crisies to force cuts that were never needed. This is no different, and as Peter Barca rightfully points out in the article, this "surplus" is an Administration release that's being done well ahead of anything the LFB will figure. Don't think for a second that's a coincidence, because the LFB can't "prove" the numbers to be lies until after the recall election comes, which allows RW radio to spread this lie further.
But people like me and you know better than to take souped-up numbers at face value, nor do we ignore the reality on the ground like the Walker Administration and the J-S do. If we play this right, we'll expose this fraud and expand Walker's already-monstrous credibility gap.
The Walker "surplus" claims- the only accuracy is that taxes are up. (Pt. 1)
I was getting ready to take off from work when I glanced upon todays' Wheeler Report and saw something from Mike Huebsch entitled: "Memo to Gov. Walker regarding general fund tax collections and fund condition." And my bullshit detector started screaming, so I clicked on the page to take a look.
Sure enough, Huebsch is claiming that tax revenues have picked up and now there is supposed to be an $89 million surplus for the state at the end of the 2-year biennium. This would be quite the turnaround from what the Legislative Fiscal Bureau reported 3 months ago, where the LFB predicted a $208 million budget deficit that would have to be made up. So why the sudden turnaround? Well, Huebsch says
General fund revenue collections through April were ahead of forecast and refunds were lower than anticipated. I'm not going to pretend to know about the number of tax refunds given out, but it'd surprise me that in a year when there were major cuts in taxable pay to hundreds of thousands of public workers in the middle of the year and a dropping stock market in the middle of the year that there would be lower tax refunds, because incomes would be smaller than expected, not larger. But since I can't say for sure. I'll give Hibby this one.
And the "higher tax revenue" claim has some legitimacy, because since we last checked in on the relatively low revenues in February, the last 2 months have seen several types of tax revenues go up. This is true both for the Federal Government (April saw U.S. revenues up by 10% vs. 2011 and Uncle Sam run a monthly surplus for the first time since Obama has taken office.) this was also true for Wisconsin. Wisconsin income taxes were 12.62% above March and April 2011, and are now up 4.5% through 10 months of the fiscal year vs. 2.4% 2 months ago. Sales taxes gave also picked up, up 12.3% in March and 9.5% in April. Why, I'm not exactly sure (I know the weather was great in March, April doesn't add up), but it now means FY-to-date, it's gone from 0.75% below budget to +0.88% above budget. Even corporate taxes came in strong for March and April, and are now up 5.44% year-over-year. The only area not keeping up is excise taxes (beer, smokes, etc.), which are down 3.6% year-over-year, and 5.59% vs. the budget.
So when you put that together, and figure the current fiscal year increases to hold for the rest of the year, the numbers look like this:
Income tax $7.002 billion (+$133.945 million vs. budget)
Sales tax $4.306 billion ($36.036 million vs. budget)
Corporate tax $899.259 million (+$18.459 million vs. budget)
Excise tax $694.102 million (-$41.098 million vs. budget).
So you could argue that revenues could come in around $147 million above budgeted amounts, which would lead to the type of surplus Huebsch is claiming. But here's the problem. It assumes that the growth in record-heat March and April will continue in May and June. And of course it could easily reverse back just as quickly as it did to the good side the last 2 months. So if things flatten out, that deficit could well show up again by the end of the fiscal year, especially given that May and June 2011 were strong months in 2011, and one bad Memorial Day weekend could screw over the Sales tax revenues (so heavily dependent on the Summer months).
By the way, the other reason they anticipate this surplus? $78 million in "savings" resulting from "structural refunding authorized by [the state budget] and other debt refinancing, which is creating reduced debt service costs for the 2011-2013 biennium." That's right, WALKER IS KICKING THE CAN DOWN THE ROAD AND USING THE NUMBERS TO TRY TO SAVE HIS ASS TODAY. Wonder if the Tea-Baggers will let him have it like they do when they shed their crocodile tears about the federal debt?
Huebsch and Walker's act is very reminiscent of Walker's press conference last July where he took credit for what appeared to be a strong June jobs report despite being told by DWD officials that the job increase was "very questionable" due to most being seasonal tourism-related jobs. It later turned out that the DWD's concerns were on the money, as revisions later showed no job growth in June at all. And just like today, that report came out a few weeks before a recall election where the GOP and Walker had to put their records on the line. You don't think they might be putting out sketchy data or cooking the books again, do you?
Of course they would. These people have no sense of decency and would make things up to create an alternate reality at the drop of a hat if it gave them a couple of extra dollars or votes. The fact that the April revenue numbers were blasted out on the 3rd when they usually come out in the middle of the month is equally noteworthy for the same reason.
So while the DOR numbers are looking good, no legitimate public servant would run with them to change policy with such a small sample size of better-than-expected numbers. But then again, Mike Huebsch is the same hack who estimated protestors made $7.5 million in damage to the Capitol, when it turned out the total damage was only $200,000, or slightly above normal wear-and-tear. So maybe he;s just using the same math...the one that might work on AM 620 and 1130, but doesn't pass the smell test with anyone with a clue.
And if you think the numbers are fishy enough, wait till you see what I have to say about the Walker boys' assumptions for the overall economy. That comes in Part 2.
Sure enough, Huebsch is claiming that tax revenues have picked up and now there is supposed to be an $89 million surplus for the state at the end of the 2-year biennium. This would be quite the turnaround from what the Legislative Fiscal Bureau reported 3 months ago, where the LFB predicted a $208 million budget deficit that would have to be made up. So why the sudden turnaround? Well, Huebsch says
This improvement in general fund tax revenue projections relates to several items. General fund revenue collections through April were ahead of forecast and refunds were lower than anticipated. In addition, the federal Bureau of Economic Analysis has issued data revisoon that raised its estimates of personal income for Wisconsin. These revisions indicate that 2011 income growth was stronger than anticipated at the time of the February revenue estimates. Further, the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics has released its Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages. This reported stronger growth in employment for the third quarter of 2011 than previously estimated. The Department of Revenue also incorporated the most recent forecast by IHS Global Insight, which reports a stronger 2011 base and growth for personal income than the February forecast.For this post, let's deal with the tax revenue question first. We'll handle the other claims in a second part of the post.
General fund revenue collections through April were ahead of forecast and refunds were lower than anticipated. I'm not going to pretend to know about the number of tax refunds given out, but it'd surprise me that in a year when there were major cuts in taxable pay to hundreds of thousands of public workers in the middle of the year and a dropping stock market in the middle of the year that there would be lower tax refunds, because incomes would be smaller than expected, not larger. But since I can't say for sure. I'll give Hibby this one.
And the "higher tax revenue" claim has some legitimacy, because since we last checked in on the relatively low revenues in February, the last 2 months have seen several types of tax revenues go up. This is true both for the Federal Government (April saw U.S. revenues up by 10% vs. 2011 and Uncle Sam run a monthly surplus for the first time since Obama has taken office.) this was also true for Wisconsin. Wisconsin income taxes were 12.62% above March and April 2011, and are now up 4.5% through 10 months of the fiscal year vs. 2.4% 2 months ago. Sales taxes gave also picked up, up 12.3% in March and 9.5% in April. Why, I'm not exactly sure (I know the weather was great in March, April doesn't add up), but it now means FY-to-date, it's gone from 0.75% below budget to +0.88% above budget. Even corporate taxes came in strong for March and April, and are now up 5.44% year-over-year. The only area not keeping up is excise taxes (beer, smokes, etc.), which are down 3.6% year-over-year, and 5.59% vs. the budget.
So when you put that together, and figure the current fiscal year increases to hold for the rest of the year, the numbers look like this:
Income tax $7.002 billion (+$133.945 million vs. budget)
Sales tax $4.306 billion ($36.036 million vs. budget)
Corporate tax $899.259 million (+$18.459 million vs. budget)
Excise tax $694.102 million (-$41.098 million vs. budget).
So you could argue that revenues could come in around $147 million above budgeted amounts, which would lead to the type of surplus Huebsch is claiming. But here's the problem. It assumes that the growth in record-heat March and April will continue in May and June. And of course it could easily reverse back just as quickly as it did to the good side the last 2 months. So if things flatten out, that deficit could well show up again by the end of the fiscal year, especially given that May and June 2011 were strong months in 2011, and one bad Memorial Day weekend could screw over the Sales tax revenues (so heavily dependent on the Summer months).
By the way, the other reason they anticipate this surplus? $78 million in "savings" resulting from "structural refunding authorized by [the state budget] and other debt refinancing, which is creating reduced debt service costs for the 2011-2013 biennium." That's right, WALKER IS KICKING THE CAN DOWN THE ROAD AND USING THE NUMBERS TO TRY TO SAVE HIS ASS TODAY. Wonder if the Tea-Baggers will let him have it like they do when they shed their crocodile tears about the federal debt?
Huebsch and Walker's act is very reminiscent of Walker's press conference last July where he took credit for what appeared to be a strong June jobs report despite being told by DWD officials that the job increase was "very questionable" due to most being seasonal tourism-related jobs. It later turned out that the DWD's concerns were on the money, as revisions later showed no job growth in June at all. And just like today, that report came out a few weeks before a recall election where the GOP and Walker had to put their records on the line. You don't think they might be putting out sketchy data or cooking the books again, do you?
Of course they would. These people have no sense of decency and would make things up to create an alternate reality at the drop of a hat if it gave them a couple of extra dollars or votes. The fact that the April revenue numbers were blasted out on the 3rd when they usually come out in the middle of the month is equally noteworthy for the same reason.
So while the DOR numbers are looking good, no legitimate public servant would run with them to change policy with such a small sample size of better-than-expected numbers. But then again, Mike Huebsch is the same hack who estimated protestors made $7.5 million in damage to the Capitol, when it turned out the total damage was only $200,000, or slightly above normal wear-and-tear. So maybe he;s just using the same math...the one that might work on AM 620 and 1130, but doesn't pass the smell test with anyone with a clue.
And if you think the numbers are fishy enough, wait till you see what I have to say about the Walker boys' assumptions for the overall economy. That comes in Part 2.
Wednesday, May 9, 2012
Past is prologue- remember Scotty's Mil-Walker's failures
Been a bit nutty around here with elections, family and friends in the hospital, and Madison Craft Beer week. So instead of some kind of huge in-depth thing, let me instead hand it off to others today.
First of all, read Capper's excellent rundown of Scott Walker's 10 years of screwing over Milwaukee. With these events in mind, it sure destroys the Walker folks' plan of attacking Barrett for Milwaukee's difficulties, because those who have lived there can tell you Walker's negligence is the true culprit behind any Milwaukee troubles.
And much like he's trying to do with Wisconsin, Walker spent a few years as County Exec making his name, leaving it FUBAR'ed, and then leaving right before the bombs that he's set are ready to go off. It's why we gotta get him out in 4 weeks before his Wisconsin damage becomes permanent. It's remarkable how Walker's crew wants people to forget what Scotty did (or didn't do) in the 8 years before he became governor, and shows just how failed he has been in his 16 months as Governor, since they can't bring themselves to talk about Walker's positives.
This isn't much different than the points I've made in previous weeks, showing how Milwaukee has survived Walker's damage as governor better than most of the state, and how Walker's cuts of tens of millions of dollars of state aid to Milwaukee has helped to sink the city's property values. But given that these lie-filled commercials will bring the spotlight back onto the "state of Milwaukee" issues, it's only fair to remind folks of Walker's utter failure as County Exec in the 8 years he took up space at that position.
First of all, read Capper's excellent rundown of Scott Walker's 10 years of screwing over Milwaukee. With these events in mind, it sure destroys the Walker folks' plan of attacking Barrett for Milwaukee's difficulties, because those who have lived there can tell you Walker's negligence is the true culprit behind any Milwaukee troubles.
And much like he's trying to do with Wisconsin, Walker spent a few years as County Exec making his name, leaving it FUBAR'ed, and then leaving right before the bombs that he's set are ready to go off. It's why we gotta get him out in 4 weeks before his Wisconsin damage becomes permanent. It's remarkable how Walker's crew wants people to forget what Scotty did (or didn't do) in the 8 years before he became governor, and shows just how failed he has been in his 16 months as Governor, since they can't bring themselves to talk about Walker's positives.
This isn't much different than the points I've made in previous weeks, showing how Milwaukee has survived Walker's damage as governor better than most of the state, and how Walker's cuts of tens of millions of dollars of state aid to Milwaukee has helped to sink the city's property values. But given that these lie-filled commercials will bring the spotlight back onto the "state of Milwaukee" issues, it's only fair to remind folks of Walker's utter failure as County Exec in the 8 years he took up space at that position.
Monday, May 7, 2012
Jake's Dem ticket- Barrett and Mitchell
Well, time to make my endorsement for Governor and Lieutenant Governor in tomorrow's primaries. Neither of these picks should really surprise you.
Governor- Tom Barrett
Disclosure: I worked for Tom in Milwaukee for a couple of years and got to know how he handles things firsthand. He is even more honest, hard-working and caring on an everyday basis than you know him to be on the stump. The high level of competence that he demands and allows in his departments tells a lot about how much this cares for the business of good governance, and I've seen firsthand how he accepts conclusions that don't jibe with what he might want to hear, and adjusts policies to fit that reality (boy, wouldn't that be a major upgrade from Walker World, eh?) Instead of living in the insular, ideologically-driven world of Scott Walker, Tom believes in listening, thinking, and solving, and Barrett won't be using Wisconsin as a stepping stone to his next job. Coming back to Madison (where he went to school and served in the state Legislature for 10 years) is Tom's ultimate job, and he would give this state real leadership and results as a result instead of pathetic poses.
This guy has been handed some of the worst deals any Mayor of the state's largest city has been dealt, with major cuts in state shared revenue (and no way to make up for the cuts), the worst recession in the U.S. in 70 years, and dealing with the fallout of a dysfunctional MPS that he has no control over. And through all of these barriers (and Walker's brutal cuts in transit service), Milwaukee has revitalized huge parts of their downtown and other neighborhoods like the Third Ward, and has succeeded in attracting people to relocate back to the City, as Milwaukee stopped decades of declining population in the 2000s, and now has more people living there than it did when Barrett took over in 2004.
That result is especially remarkable when you consider Barrett has had to deal with Scott Walker screwing everything up above him for his entire tenure, first when Walker was County Executive from 2004-2011, and now for the last 16 months as governor, as Walker cut tens of millions of dollars to the city last year and didn't give Barrett any offsetting chance to make them up because Walker exempted police and fire fighters from Act 10's cuts for political reasons. Barrett correctly predicted that Act 10 was flawed due to this two-tier treatment of police and fire, and that's why a federal judge threw part of it out in March.
You think Barrett would bully through constitutionally flawed legislation without regard for outcomes like Walker has? Hell no, he'd be the exact opposite, being and laying out the options to all sides at the bargaining table, and reaching a conclusion that makes the best of a tough situation, like he did in 2009 when Barrett and the city's main public employee unions reached an agreement that exchanged a pay freeze with a promise of no layoffs of city workers, a promise Barrett kept through 2 difficult budget years. Unlike Scott Walker, Tom Barrett works to get things done right the first time, and would do it transparently, without having to take anyone's rights away.
Even though I'm a huge fan of Tom's and know how good of an executive he is when it comes to management and caring and understanding the issues, I also felt that his campaign in 2010 was uneven, and wasn't fierce enough to draw attention to the damage that the TeaBag agenda would cause. I worried that I would see a tepid, casual Barrett would be the one that would be running for governor, which would lead to a deflating general election campaign, and I was willing to look into voting for Kathleen Vinehout if I was seeing that out of Tom (Falk was out as soon as she worked out that backroom deal with the unions and came up with the stupid plan of vetoing the budget over collective bargaining rights, and La Follette is far too boring and unaccomplished for me to support in the primary).
That is not the Tom Barrett I've seen in 2012. Take a look at this meeting in Janesville from last week, and how Tom hits it all- the understanding of the issues, Scott Walker's dereliction of duty and complete failure on the jobs front, and the great story where Barrett relates about how his wife feels that Walker has devalued teaching and many of the other things our state holds dear. And it's all off the cuff without BS. Do you think Walker has a chance against a guy who's going to bring THIS out on the stump against him?
Note why Barrett says he will restore collective bargaining rights- because IT'S THE RIGHT THING TO DO. He's not doing it because it's part of some deal to get political support in the primary or because it makes for a nice headline (I'm looking at you, Kathleen Falk), but because IT IS RIGHT. That's what's driven people like me out to the Capitol time and again the last 15 months, because we recognize that what Scott Walker and the Koch/WMC agenda setters have done is fundamentally wrong for Wisconsin. Walker's moves have been nothing more than a power-grab by a group taking advantage of a fluky 2010 election cycle, and has been done without regard for the condition Wisconsin is left in after Walker and his corporate backers leave town with their loot. Tom Barrett understands this element of the anger with Walker and can articluate it without empty platitudes or talking down to me like I'm a child, and that combined with his experience as an executive and belief in competence and rule of law in Wisconsin government sets him apart from the other candidates.
Given that Tom Barrett has kept Milwaukee afloat despite the brutal destruction of Walker, I have the full confidence has can do the same for the rest of the state (in fact, it'd probably be a whole lot easier given that a Governor has many more ways to deal with the economy and fiscal issues than a Mayor. In order to fix the huge amount of damage that Scott Walker has imposed on Wisconsin, we need a governor that will deal with the tough situation at hand, stop the decline, and restore this state back to health, reminding us of why it's such special place to live in. The candidate that can handle this tough order is Tom Barrett, and that's who I'm voting for tomorrow.
Lieutenant Governor, Mahlon Mitchell
Those who have been to rallies have seen Mitchell give his typical fiery speech. Mitchell is excellent at tying together Walker's anti-union moves with the larger Koch-ALEC agenda. While some of it may get a bit old after you've seen it 10-12 times (as I have), he's still a great guy to have on our side, and Mitchell can use the Lieutenant Governor's office as a sounding board and outreach for the Governor, instead of appearing at photo ops and embarrassing our state with airheaded bimbosity that Lt. Gov. Kleefisch does in the office today. Unlike Kleefisch, who seems to use the job as a good excuse to grab a second paycheck for her family, get some nice perks and allow some 262-area country clubbers to not have to use their Viagra for the day, Mitchell could actually do something productive with this job, and inspire some folks with an IQ over 80 in the process.
The contrast of Mitchell with Barrett's cool-hand experience makes for a great Dem ticket that can grab moderates (who like Barrett's steadiness and pracitcaility) and fire-breathing recallers (who like how Mitchell can tap into the rage and solidarity that so many of us feel against this outlaw regime). As I guy who appreciates and walks both sides of the ledger on this ticket, I can't wait to see them together for the next 4 weeks.
Lastly, make sure you take advantage of this opportunity and GET OUT TOMORROW AND VOTE if you haven't already. As I've pointed out in the past, elections are decided in no small part based on who shows up, and if we don't show up, the bad guys will take over our government and way of life from us. Don't let it happen tomorrow, and especially don't let it happen on June 5.
Governor- Tom Barrett
Disclosure: I worked for Tom in Milwaukee for a couple of years and got to know how he handles things firsthand. He is even more honest, hard-working and caring on an everyday basis than you know him to be on the stump. The high level of competence that he demands and allows in his departments tells a lot about how much this cares for the business of good governance, and I've seen firsthand how he accepts conclusions that don't jibe with what he might want to hear, and adjusts policies to fit that reality (boy, wouldn't that be a major upgrade from Walker World, eh?) Instead of living in the insular, ideologically-driven world of Scott Walker, Tom believes in listening, thinking, and solving, and Barrett won't be using Wisconsin as a stepping stone to his next job. Coming back to Madison (where he went to school and served in the state Legislature for 10 years) is Tom's ultimate job, and he would give this state real leadership and results as a result instead of pathetic poses.
This guy has been handed some of the worst deals any Mayor of the state's largest city has been dealt, with major cuts in state shared revenue (and no way to make up for the cuts), the worst recession in the U.S. in 70 years, and dealing with the fallout of a dysfunctional MPS that he has no control over. And through all of these barriers (and Walker's brutal cuts in transit service), Milwaukee has revitalized huge parts of their downtown and other neighborhoods like the Third Ward, and has succeeded in attracting people to relocate back to the City, as Milwaukee stopped decades of declining population in the 2000s, and now has more people living there than it did when Barrett took over in 2004.
That result is especially remarkable when you consider Barrett has had to deal with Scott Walker screwing everything up above him for his entire tenure, first when Walker was County Executive from 2004-2011, and now for the last 16 months as governor, as Walker cut tens of millions of dollars to the city last year and didn't give Barrett any offsetting chance to make them up because Walker exempted police and fire fighters from Act 10's cuts for political reasons. Barrett correctly predicted that Act 10 was flawed due to this two-tier treatment of police and fire, and that's why a federal judge threw part of it out in March.
You think Barrett would bully through constitutionally flawed legislation without regard for outcomes like Walker has? Hell no, he'd be the exact opposite, being and laying out the options to all sides at the bargaining table, and reaching a conclusion that makes the best of a tough situation, like he did in 2009 when Barrett and the city's main public employee unions reached an agreement that exchanged a pay freeze with a promise of no layoffs of city workers, a promise Barrett kept through 2 difficult budget years. Unlike Scott Walker, Tom Barrett works to get things done right the first time, and would do it transparently, without having to take anyone's rights away.
Even though I'm a huge fan of Tom's and know how good of an executive he is when it comes to management and caring and understanding the issues, I also felt that his campaign in 2010 was uneven, and wasn't fierce enough to draw attention to the damage that the TeaBag agenda would cause. I worried that I would see a tepid, casual Barrett would be the one that would be running for governor, which would lead to a deflating general election campaign, and I was willing to look into voting for Kathleen Vinehout if I was seeing that out of Tom (Falk was out as soon as she worked out that backroom deal with the unions and came up with the stupid plan of vetoing the budget over collective bargaining rights, and La Follette is far too boring and unaccomplished for me to support in the primary).
That is not the Tom Barrett I've seen in 2012. Take a look at this meeting in Janesville from last week, and how Tom hits it all- the understanding of the issues, Scott Walker's dereliction of duty and complete failure on the jobs front, and the great story where Barrett relates about how his wife feels that Walker has devalued teaching and many of the other things our state holds dear. And it's all off the cuff without BS. Do you think Walker has a chance against a guy who's going to bring THIS out on the stump against him?
Note why Barrett says he will restore collective bargaining rights- because IT'S THE RIGHT THING TO DO. He's not doing it because it's part of some deal to get political support in the primary or because it makes for a nice headline (I'm looking at you, Kathleen Falk), but because IT IS RIGHT. That's what's driven people like me out to the Capitol time and again the last 15 months, because we recognize that what Scott Walker and the Koch/WMC agenda setters have done is fundamentally wrong for Wisconsin. Walker's moves have been nothing more than a power-grab by a group taking advantage of a fluky 2010 election cycle, and has been done without regard for the condition Wisconsin is left in after Walker and his corporate backers leave town with their loot. Tom Barrett understands this element of the anger with Walker and can articluate it without empty platitudes or talking down to me like I'm a child, and that combined with his experience as an executive and belief in competence and rule of law in Wisconsin government sets him apart from the other candidates.
Given that Tom Barrett has kept Milwaukee afloat despite the brutal destruction of Walker, I have the full confidence has can do the same for the rest of the state (in fact, it'd probably be a whole lot easier given that a Governor has many more ways to deal with the economy and fiscal issues than a Mayor. In order to fix the huge amount of damage that Scott Walker has imposed on Wisconsin, we need a governor that will deal with the tough situation at hand, stop the decline, and restore this state back to health, reminding us of why it's such special place to live in. The candidate that can handle this tough order is Tom Barrett, and that's who I'm voting for tomorrow.
Lieutenant Governor, Mahlon Mitchell
Those who have been to rallies have seen Mitchell give his typical fiery speech. Mitchell is excellent at tying together Walker's anti-union moves with the larger Koch-ALEC agenda. While some of it may get a bit old after you've seen it 10-12 times (as I have), he's still a great guy to have on our side, and Mitchell can use the Lieutenant Governor's office as a sounding board and outreach for the Governor, instead of appearing at photo ops and embarrassing our state with airheaded bimbosity that Lt. Gov. Kleefisch does in the office today. Unlike Kleefisch, who seems to use the job as a good excuse to grab a second paycheck for her family, get some nice perks and allow some 262-area country clubbers to not have to use their Viagra for the day, Mitchell could actually do something productive with this job, and inspire some folks with an IQ over 80 in the process.
The contrast of Mitchell with Barrett's cool-hand experience makes for a great Dem ticket that can grab moderates (who like Barrett's steadiness and pracitcaility) and fire-breathing recallers (who like how Mitchell can tap into the rage and solidarity that so many of us feel against this outlaw regime). As I guy who appreciates and walks both sides of the ledger on this ticket, I can't wait to see them together for the next 4 weeks.
Lastly, make sure you take advantage of this opportunity and GET OUT TOMORROW AND VOTE if you haven't already. As I've pointed out in the past, elections are decided in no small part based on who shows up, and if we don't show up, the bad guys will take over our government and way of life from us. Don't let it happen tomorrow, and especially don't let it happen on June 5.
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