Sunday, April 19, 2015

A few notes from Walker's awful Marquette Poll

You may have heard something about the Marquette Law School poll that was released last week, and while the headline number is the tanking approval ratings of Gov Scott Walker, whose approval is down to 41%, and disapproval up to 56%. These results match similar declines for Walker that PPP reported last month, and is even more remarkable because the Marquette Poll and Professor Charles Franklin have ties to the pro-Walker oligarch groups such as WPRI and the Bradley Foundation, so they have little reason to knock down Scotty.

Let's start by enjoying Walker's tanking approval ratings, because it shows a notable change in the relatively consistent trend we had seen over the last 3 years of the Marquette Poll, where just under half of Wisconsinites would approve and half disapprove. This graphic from the Marquette Law School illustrates how different this week's poll was.

In the stock market, that would be known as a "breakout." It bears to mind the polling history of another Dubya, who slipped into negative approval for good in April of his second term, as that Dubya was trying to privatize Social Security, and his number never recovered. And just like with Bush, Walker slipped by in the election in November, and immediately started trying to push through policies that he never ran on.

As I've mentioned before, it's obvious that many Wisconsinites hate the thought of presidential candidate Walker. Just like with the PPP Poll, Walker does worse than most other GOP candidates when matched against Hillary Clinton in Wisconsin.

Hillary Clinton vs. GOP candidates, Wisconsin
Clinton 49, Paul 41
Clinton 49, Bush 38
Clinton 50, Rubio 38
Clinton 52, Walker 40
Clinton 52, Cruz 36

Not only is Clinton destroying Walker, she's above 50% against him, with the fewest amount of undecided out of any of those five candidates. It shows those who know Walker best don't want him as president, just like how Milwaukee County voted against Walker by 20-25% in all 3 of his Governor's elections after putting up with his tenure as County Exec. You've been warned America.

And it's not just Walker that's in trouble in this poll- it's his policies and the Wisconsin GOP in general. Take a look at these responses on certain issues that are part of Walker's budget.

Approve-disapprove, certain Wisconsin budget initiatives

Support cutting $127 million from K-12 schools?
Support 18%
Oppose 78%

Support $300 million cut to UW System?
Support 26%
Oppose 70%

Borrowing $150 million for Milwaukee Bucks arena?
Support 17%
Oppose 79%
Walker actually wants to borrow $220 million in the budget, so you'd imagine that's hated even more.

Requiring Senior Care recipients to enroll in Medicare Part D?
Support 30%
Oppose 44%

Eiminate cap on voucher schools?
Support 37%
Oppose 54%

What's more important to you?
Higher spending on schools 54%
Lower property taxes 40%

Scott Walker's budget is on the losing side of every one of these issues. And yet Walker's excuse for his declining poll ratings was that people didn't know enough about the budget and that they'd ultimately like what they see. Those poll responses indicate the exact opposite- that people hate the budget provisions even more. Walker's either lying, or completely out of touch, and a whole lot of GOP legislators seem to be realizing they will pay a huge price in 2016 if they stand behind this loser of a budget.

I admit that I haven't found a way to dig inside the crosstabs, due to formatting issues with the Zip folder (any help would be appreciated), and I'd like to see which groups in particular Walker are losing compared to 6 months ago. But it is clear that Scott Walker's act as a presidential candidate and the pose-ridden budget that he sent out as a result has angered many people across the state, and may have put his disapproval and lack of favorability past a point of no return. And the Marquette Poll results indicates to me that if Walker wants to do a little game theory, and find his best bet to carrying the state in November 2016, it involves a clear option. RESIGN AS GOVERNOR.

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