Saturday, April 25, 2015

Another week, another bad Walker poll

You may have read about our fair Governor's approval tanking in another poll over the last week, but you may not realize how bad those numbers really are. When you take a bit of a closer look, it's little wonder there's been (yet another) drastic shift in tone and messaging from these guys in the last few days - because Wisconsinites are not buying what Scott Walker and the Wisconsin GOP are selling in any way shape or form.

Polls from Wisconsin Public Radio and Saint Norbert College has always been a bit shaky, because of its small sample size and its wacky demographics (more on that in a bit), but the figures do mirror the trends we saw in other polls from Public Policy Polling and the Marquette Law School in recent weeks- Walker approval slipping well underwater, and his run for president is one of the reasons why.
The statewide survey shows Walker with just a 41 percent approval rating....

The survey also found concern among many about how Walker's anticipated run with effect the state. [43] percent of respondents said that they thought Walker's campaign trips were detrimental to Wisconsin. [36] percent said that they thought the campaigning had no effect, 18 percent through they were beneficial to Wisconsin while 4 percent said they were unsure.

A majority of survey respondents also took a dim view of Walker's prospects if he was elected president. About 44 percent said that they thought he would make a poor president and 16 percent said he would be "not so good." [28] percent thought we would be a good president while 11 percent thought he would be an excellent chief executive. Only 1 percent were unsure, according to the survey.
Nothing too new there, outside of the confirming that Scotty's on the slide. But then you look at the demographics of the poll, and it brings the real kicker.
[35] percent of respondents identified as Republicans, 34 percent as Democrats and 26 percent said they were independents. About 57 percent said they consider themselves somewhat or very conservative while 37 percent said they are somewhat or very liberal.
WHOA WHOA WHOA! 57% conservative? R+1? That's a primary electorate, not even close to a general election voting population in Wisconsin. Take a look at the 2012 exit polls, which show the following breakdown.

2012 Wisconsin exit poll, New York Times
Liberal 24%
Moderate 40%
Conservative 35%

Party ID
Democrat 37
Republican 32
Independent 31

So St. Norbert's sample has a whole lot more conservatives (and some more liberals) than the 2012 presidential electorate, and changes party ID from D +5 to R +1. The removal of large amounts of moderates from the sample is a help for Walker, because his approval rating among them and even "Independents" (which includes the sizable amount of Baggers who lie about being Republicans) are noticeably worse than the 41% total.

Walker approve/disapprove, moderates and Independents
PPP March- 26-67
Marquette Law, April- 29-68

PPP March- 36-57
Marquette Law, April- 36-60

That makes it reasonable to assume that Walker's approval among the General Election electorate is in the 30s, with his policies disliked even more (94% of the WPR/St. Norbert poll wants K-12 funding to stay the same or be increased, for example, which goes against the $127 million cut Walker proposed).

With the numbers like those, no wonder why Walker was sending out silly tweets like this yesterday to try to convince people that times are good in Wisconsin.

Scotty also tried to talk up the lower unemployment rate in Wisconsin when he went to Minnesota this week, only to be hilariously slapped down by former Minneapolis Mayor R. T. Rybak. The desperation is obvious with this strategy, with Walker never giving the proper context for Wisconsin's job gain and drop in unemployment over the last 4+ years.

That context being "THANKS OBAMA!"

And if the upcoming state revenue numbers are as disappointing as I fear they may be, that means most if not all of Walker's despised budget cuts will stay in place. Which means you can expect Scott Walker's approval rating in Wisconsin to remain in its "Bush 2nd term" downward trajectory, with little chance of it ever coming back. This week's WPR/St. Norbert poll, as RW-slanted as it was, gave us an even clearer indication that most Wisconsinites have pretty much had it with this guy, and the destructive policies that come with him.

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