Thursday, April 16, 2015

Fitzwalkerstan tanks - in jobs as well as polls

In addition to the tanking approval ratings of our Governor and his policies, there was another bit of news that added to Scott Walker's dubious standing today. The March 2015 Wisconsin jobs report came out from the Department of Workforce Development, and the numbers were miserable.

Change in Wisconsin jobs
March 2015, all jobs -4,300
March 2015, private sector jobs -5,000

February 2015 revision, all jobs -1,900
February 2015 revision, private sector jobs -1,800

Total change in all jobs vs. last report -6,200
Total change in private sector jobs vs last report -6,800

Yes, the U.S. had a slowdown in job growth in March, with "only" 126,000 jobs added, but they sure didn't lose them like we did here in Fitzwalkerstan. So as a result, the Walker jobs gap is growing again, now back up past 81,000 private sector jobs, and 72,600 overall.

The DWD's (and too much of the state media's) propaganda about the state's unemployment rate being lowered to 4.6% isn't really a good sign, either. It reflects 8,300 people leaving the Wisconsin work force in March (on a seasonally-adjusted basis), and even that survey shows employment dropping by 3,200 jobs last month. The figures look even worse when you look West across the St. Croix, and you see this.
Minnesota employers added 7,800 jobs in March, a second straight month of strong growth thanks to big gains in education and health care.

The state added 49,400 jobs over the past 12 months, a growth rate of 1.9 percent, which is well below the national growth rate of 2.3 percent, according to figures released Thursday by the Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic Development.

But the state has added 18,300 jobs since the start of February, the labor force is growing as more workers who had been on the sidelines decided to look for a job and the unemployment rate held steady at 3.7 percent, compared to a U.S. rate of 5.5 percent.
Hmm, and those guys in Minnesota are using their surplus to add funding to early childhood education and related programs, while Scott Walker's budget is cutting $427 million from K-12 and higher education in Wisconsin (to the disapproval of more than 70% of Wisconsinites). I wonder if there's a relationship there...


  1. Right on Jake,

    And to add mathematical insult to injury, the MJS states:

    "Separately in Thursday's state report, Wisconsin lost an estimated 5,000 private-sector jobs in March from February."

    Forgets the previous month revision, makes no comparison to the national figures, but has plenty of room (25% of the article length) to say:

    "Although the March payroll figure looks discouraging, the monthly state job counts routinely are subject to major revisions and an unusually wide margin of error due to the small size of the government survey samples.

    The government every month conducts two separate monthly employment surveys: It polls about 3% of the state's employers to extrapolate the head count on jobs while it bases the unemployment rate on a survey of 0.06% of the state's households. The small samples are the cause for the unreliability in the monthly surveys.

    When it comes to jobs data, both government and private economists agree the only accurate numbers are a federal census of employment and wages, which are released every quarter."

    I count a total of five substantial errors that would earn an undergraduate statistics student a "D" if this were handed in as an answer on a test.

    Dr. Morbius

  2. Also, after they say the QCEW is more accurate, they should include a note that Wisconsin dropped to 40th place for jobs. #MediaFail

    1. Well stated. The inconsistency in the J-S's statements is a major "tell" that they're covering up the underlying story, which would damage their boy Scotty even further.

      Here's the question- is it John Schmid being a hack, or is he told to report on things this way?