Walker down 13? May be too good to be true, but Scotty's still in BIG trouble

I had an idea that the Marist/NBC News poll for Wisconsin would look very good for Dems when it showed Donald Trump's approval rating falling to 36% in the state, and a heavy preference for Dems to control Congress after November's election.

But when Marist/NBC followed up with polls on the two big statewide elections for November, I wasn't expecting to see this.

Striking anti-Scott Walker sentiments on display in new NBC/Marist poll:

Poll says @Tony4WI would beat the governor 54-41.

Only 1/3rd of Wisconsinites now believe that Walker deserves to be re-elected.

Details: https://t.co/TLFPumgxpq pic.twitter.com/8H0sLohftO

— John Nichols (@NicholsUprising) July 26, 2018

To me, the bigger story is that only 34% of those asked think Walker deserves to be re-elected to a third term. And that's why I think only concentrating on Evers in head-to-head matchups is a big error by Marist/NBC. I really would have liked to have seen what the other matchups looked like, given that Evers is as close to "generic Democrat" as you can get, and it would have been intriguing to see if someone was an even better matchup, or if someone wasn't.

As the Wisconsin State Journal's Matt DeFour notes, Evers had the mpost support of Wisconsin Dems in this poll, but he has far from a majority of ironclad support for the August 14 primary.

New Marist/NBC News poll on Democratic primary:
Undecided: 41%@Tony4WI: 25%@McDenimRebel: 7% @VinehoutK: 7%@Paulsoglin: 6%
People no longer running: 4%@ForwardWFlynn: 3%@MahlonMitchell: 3%@keldahelenroys: 3%@JoshPade: 1%

— Matthew DeFour (@WSJMattD4) July 26, 2018

Given that 40% of those asked by Marist/NBC gave no preference to a specific candidate, if one the other candidates catches fire and consolidates a lot of support, he/she could overtake Evers by Aug 14. And I think I'm far from the only voter that would like to see "head-to-head vs Walker" comparisons to help me finalize my choice.

As for the NBC/Marist poll itself, here's how they arrived at those shocking numbers.

Within each landline household, a single respondent is selected through a random selection process to increase the representativeness of traditionally under-covered survey populations. Assistance was provided by The Logit Group, Inc. for data collection. The samples were then combined and balanced to reflect the 2016 American Community Survey 5-year estimates for age, gender, income, race, and region. Results are statistically significant within ±3.6 percentage points. There are 906 registered voters. The results for this subset are statistically significant within ±3.8 percentage points. There are 355 voters in the potential Republican primary electorate. The potential Republican primary electorate in Wisconsin includes all voters who prefer to vote in the August Republican primary and those who identify as Republicans or Republican leaning independents without a primary preference. There are 466 voters in the potential Democratic primary electorate. The potential Democratic primary electorate in Wisconsin includes all voters who prefer to vote in the August Democratic primary and those who identify as Democrats or Democratic leaning independents without a primary preference. The results for these subsets are statistically significant within ±6.1 percentage points and ±5.3 percentage points, respectively. The error margin was adjusted for sample weights and increases for cross-tabulations.

So with that sample, here's what Marist/NBC had as a party ID and ideological breakdown.

Democratic 33%
Republican 25%
Independent 41%

Liberal/Very liberal 30%
Moderate 31%
Conservative/Very conservative 39%

Now compare it to those same statistics for the most recent Marquette Law School Poll.

Democratic 26%
Republican 28%
Independent 44%

Liberal/Very liberal 25%
Moderate 31%
Conservative/Very conservative 38%

So that 10 point difference in projected turnout from Dem +8 in the Marist Poll vs the GOP +2 in the Marquette Poll goes a long way toward explaining why those polls have seemed so different. The question is – who’s right about what that electorate will be like?

Well, let’s look at the recent history of the most recent heavily Blue Wave year in Wisconsin, and then the most recent midterm.

In 2008, a 14-point blowout for President Obama in Wisconsin, the electorate identified as Dem +6.

In 2014, a pro-GOP midterm that Walker won by 5.7%, the electorate was R +1.

In both polls, Dems held a slight edge in a question about enthusiasm, which is always a big deal in a midterm, when voter turnout isn’t as large.

How enthusiastic are you about voting in this November’s elections?

Marquette Law
Very enthusiastic
Democratic 65%
Republican 61%

Do you think November’s election for Congress is very important?

Marist/NBC Poll
Very important
Democratic 78%
Republican 76%

With that in mind, I'd say it is conservative to assume that the electorate will be halfway between the 2014 one and the "Dems killing it" figure in the 2018 poll. Which would leave us around Dem +3.

But the telling breakdown (and sign of change) to me is this one.

2014 exit poll
Independents Walker 54%, Burke 43%
Moderates - Burke 52%, Walker 46%
White Women - Walker 50%, Burke 49%
White college graduates - Walker 53%, Burke 46%

Compare that to the Marist Poll that had Walker down 13 to Evers.

2018 Marist Poll
Evers vs Walker
Independents Evers 53%, Walker 39%
Moderates – Evers 59%, Walker 36%
White college graduates Evers 56%, Walker 41%
Small city/suburban women (in Wis, this translates to a more-GOP sample of white women) Evers 64%, Walker 28%

And it looks even worse for Walker on the more generic "re-elect" question, which indicates people are in general sick of Governor Dropout.

Does Walker deserve to be re-elected governor of Wisconsin?
Independents No 61%, Yes 32%
Moderates – No 67%, Yes 26%$
White college graduates No 60%, Yes 34%
Small city/suburban women No 71%, Yes 24%

That is serious erosion in the constituencies that Walker can’t afford to lose any ground in, given that we can expect higher Dem turnout than in 2014, making things pretty near even before we even consider these swingier voters. It also shows a serious drop for Walker in those consituencies from July's Marquette Poll.

Marquette figures on Walker approval
Independents 33-46
Moderate 40-52
Women 42-50

Marquette didn’t break it down into WHITE women, but given that Walker performed better with white people in general, assume his approval rating was close to 50-50 with that group.

So if even half of that erosion across those demographics is true, that would likely put Walker down 5-10 points as a baseline. It also seems worthy to mention that between the more GOP-favorable Marquette poll and the pro-Dem findings in the NBC/Marist poll, we saw this.

“Days after @ScottWalker’s photo was taken with #MariaButina and Torshin, Our American Revival received $250,000 from Access Industries, a company founded by Ukrainian-born billionaire Len Blavatnik https://t.co/P2iWeSwBtw @onewisconsinnow pic.twitter.com/rPuW6PHgyZ

— David Crowley (@DavidCCrowley) July 20, 2018

Is it possible that stories connecting Walker and other Wisconsin righties like David Clarke to the NRA-Russia laundromat are having an effect? I think we should have more people in the field in America’s Dairyland to see if that’s the case.

And if Trump-Russia and its related corruption is rubbing off on Scott Walker and all other GOP candidates, any Dem not wrapped up in scandals involving pedophile priests (COUGH) will emerge from the August 14 primary in great shape to take out a badly damaged Scott Walker and Wisconsin GOP in November.