Madison keeps getting more and better jobs. Rest of Wisconsin? Not so much

I wanted to go into a recent Wisconsin Policy Forum paper on job changes and growth in Wisconsin from 2008-2018. It really tells a lot about what happened in the state as it and the country lost jobs and then recovered from the Great Recession, and how some areas did better than others.

What you see is that Wisconsinites in highly-educated, technical jobs have done very well over the last 10 years.

Four of the five occupational groups that have added the most jobs pay median annual wages of at least $60,000 per year: business and financial operations, computer and mathematical, healthcare practitioners and technical, and management. (See Figure 1 and our interactive charts.) These occupations also typically require higher levels of education and training than many of the occupations in decline.

One notable exception to this trend was personal care and service occupations, which have shown the most growth overall and which pay relatively low wages. Personal care and service occupations include personal care aides, barbers/hairstylists, and child care workers. Employment in that group grew by both the largest number (42,240) and percentage (56.2%) statewide during the 10-year period. At $23,870, personal care and service occupations paid the second-lowest median wage of the 22 groups in 2018 behind only food preparation and serving jobs.

On the other end of the spectrum, employment has fallen by the largest numbers in five occupational groups that each pay median wages under $36,000 annually. Perhaps most notable is that employment in healthcare support occupations (nursing assistants, dental assistants, home health aides, etc.), has declined by one of the largest numbers (-17,940) and percentages (-20.1%) since 2008, whereas healthcare practitioner occupations (physicians, dentists, registered nurses, etc.), which pay considerably higher wages in the same industry, have been among those with the most growth.

The Policy Forum goes on to note that the Madison area has done exceptionally well in this 10-year time period for overall job growth, and in particular in these high-paying, educated/skilled positions.

For example, the Madison metro area has experienced strong job growth in general since 2008, with employment growing by over 54,000 overall (16%) and in 17 of the 22 occupational groups. Perhaps most strikingly, employment in highly coveted computer and mathematical occupations—which include software and web developers and computer programmers—has led the way, growing faster than in any other group.

As you can see here, the Policy Forum adds that while tech jobs have more than doubled in the last 10 years in and around Madison, Milwaukee hasn't added many of these types of positions at all.

What's also concerning in the Policy Forum report is that a metro area that used to be known as the "machine shop of the world," isn't having as many people working in manufacturing and other production-related jobs.

While many of the occupations that have grown or declined the fastest in the Milwaukee metro area are the same as statewide, one notable difference is the substantial decline in production occupations, which are predominantly concentrated in the manufacturing industry. Employment in production occupations has decreased by 13,380 (or 13.3%) in the Milwaukee metro area since 2008, while production employment numbers grew in the Madison area and remained relatively flat statewide and in Green Bay. (See Figure 3.)

And that trend has not gotten any better in 2019, as the Bureau of Labor Statistics says that manufacturing employment in the Milwaukee metro area is at its lowest level in more than 8 years, with a decline of 2,000 manufacturing jobs over the last 12 months.

That being said, the Milwaukee metro as a whole has rebounded some in 2019, with health care being a huge reasons for its job growth. As have the 2 next largest metropolitan areas in the state, for that matter. While these numbers aren’t adjusted for seasonality (and therefore require a year-over-year comparison), the Madison, Milwaukee and Green Bay areas have done better for adding jobs than the rest of the state.

Job growth Oct 2018-Oct 2019
Milwaukee metro +11,800 (+1.3%)
Madison metro +4,700 (+1.2%)
Green Bay metro +2,400 (+1.3%)

The down side is that while the remainder of the state outside of those 3 metro areas accounts for just over ½ of the state’s employees, it’s actually lost 5,100 jobs (-0.3%) while the Bigger 3 have grown. And many of those areas have also been stagnating in population growth with lower educational levels.

Maybe we need to be something other than tax cuts to corporations as a way to get most of the state growing again, eh? Maybe (and hear me out on this!) we should be trying to attract people through a high quality of life like Madison has, and not only will companies that want to hire highly educated people want to show up, but other types of businesses will want to go there as well.

Oh, but people in growing, higher-educated communities are the type of people that are becoming more likely to vote Democrat. And that's the last thing the GOPs that have been in charge of the state's economic policy want.