Sure enough, that's the case, especially on the Democratic side, where even though Tony Evers fell short of 50%, he was still 25 points ahead of his nearest challenger. Leah Vukmir's 6-point victory in the GOP's primary for US Senate was intriguing, but more because of what she DIDN'T do versus the fact that Vukmir got more votes than Kevin Nicholson.
For some reason, Republicans cast more votes in the noncompetitive for Governor than they did in the close race for Senate, so I'll use the Governor's amount as the GOP total from yesterday.
Total votes and share, Governor primary
Dem 537,719 (54.1%)
GOP 455,966 (45.9%)
While Evers grabbed a smaller share of the vote in the Dem Governor’s race than Vukmir grabbed in the GOP Senate race, it shouldn't be confused with Evers being in a weak position nor Vukmir in a strong one. That's because Evers ended up having more people vote for him, as Democrats had notably higher turnout than Republicans last night.
Total vote share of race
Vukmir, GOP Senate 49.04%
Nicholson, GOP Senate 43.04%
Evers, Dem Governor 41.75%
Total votes
Evers 224,502
Vukmir 217,023
Nicholson 190,840
Which makes the CEO of ULine Corporation the biggest loser from last night, since we know Dick Uihlein blew at least $10.7 million on Nicholson. So that guy’s “investment” cost $56 a vote, with no win. Hope that was worth it, Dick. If I was a worker or shareholder at ULine, I would be PISSED at how much my CEO is wasting on politics instead of giving it back to my workers and stockholders.
The GOP Senate primary had some odd numbers in general. If you look at the map showing who won which counties in the primary, and you were told that Nicholson was in red and Vukmir in orange, you’d think Nicholson would have won big.
Vukmir lost more than ¾ of the counties in the state (57 of 72), and won ONE county west of I-39/US 51. So how did we get stuck having to hear the screeches of the Crazed Queen of ALEC for the next 12 weeks? Because the talk radio-listening Republican sheep in the 262 and 414 area codes voted for her in large margins, and also made up a disproportionate share of the GOP electorate.
Don’t believe me? Take a look at the chart I had from my “primary preview” post which showed the share different counties got in the presidential primaries of April 2016, and compare it to what we had on Tuesday in the GOP’s Senate primary. I have separated the City of Milwaukee from the rest of Miwaukee County in the 2018 figures, and you'll see why in a bit.
In April 2016, the 3 WOW Counties accounted for less than 21% of the total GOP vote, while nearly 25% of yesterday's Senate vote came from those 3 places. And Vukmir received between 61 and 67% of the vote in all 3 of those counties.
But that's not something that will translate into November success. “Talk radio land” has a second side to it, where the area is drifting away from Trump and the GOP AS A WHOLE. Sure, Vukmir got a lot of the sheep who stayed with the Republicans, but that area is bleeding GOP votes in general. That is particularly true if you look at the Dem vs. GOP figures in suburban Milwaukee County and in Ozaukee County.
GOP vs Dem vote share of primary electorate
Suburban Milwaukee Co.
April 2016 50.9% GOP, 49.1% Dem (GOP +1.8%)
August 2018 60.5% Dem, 39.5% GOP (Dem +21.0%, 22.8% change)
Ozaukee County
April 2016 GOP 67.6%, Dem 32.4% (GOP +35.2%)
August 2018 GOP 61.0%, Dem 39.0% (GOP +22%, 13.2% change)
Yes, maybe some of that “Milwaukee County burbs” number for Democrats is skewed higher by the Milwaukee County Sheriff’s race (congrats to Earnell Lucas and to Milwaukee County in getting its first Sheriff in 17 years to give a damn about them). But it also indicates that quite a few of the burbs that were driven away by Trumpism in November 2016 are not coming back to WisGOP.
And it wasn’t just the Milwaukee burbs that had major shifts to Dems in turnout yesterday. Take a look at this chart from the incomparable J. Miles Coleman at Decision Desk HQ.
With just a few votes out in the #WIGov primary, Democrats cast about 9% more votes than Republicans. In addition to their bases in Milwaukee & Madison, Dems were pretty strong in the Driftless Area (the region bordering IA & MN). #WIPrimary pic.twitter.com/orRMBVQQC9
— J. Miles Coleman (@JMilesColeman) August 15, 2018
Look at all that blue in Western Wisconsin, and compare it to the red-blue county map from the last two presidential elections in Wisconsin.
Yesterday looks a lot more like 2012 (Obama wins by 6) than 2016 (Trump by less than 1%). And that’s especially bad news for GOPs Howard Marklein and Kathy Bernier, as they try to hold onto GOP-held Senate seats in the middle of that field of Western Wisconsin blue.
Another area that turned toward Dems vs 2016 are two areas that already favor Dems- Dane and Rock counties in South Central Wisconsin. The turnout disparity is so extreme that it has to be pointed out.
Dane County
April 2016 70.4% Dem, 29.6% GOP (Dem +40.8%)
August 2018 84.9% Dem, 15.1% GOP (Dem +69.8%, +29.0% change)
Rock County
April 2016 53.7% Dem, 46.3% GOP (Dem +7.4%)
August 2018 69.8% Dem, 30.2% GOP (Dem +39.6%, +32.2% change)
You wonder why Mark Pocan is unopposed in November in Wisconsin’s 2nd district? And why we don't see many political ads in the Madison media market as you might see in a place like Green Bay? The GOP is in real danger of slipping out of existence in a fast-growing part of the state, and putting themselves in a massive hole to have to dig out of in the rest of the state.
Lastly, Evers’ strong showing in the Dem primary outstate (he consistently beat 50% in most rural counties outside of “Vinehout land” near the Mississippi River) might portend well in keeping an area that Walker has won big in for his past elections.
For #WIGov (D), education superintendent Tony Evers won easily. Mahlon Mitchell had a base in Milwaukee & State Sen Kathleen Vinehout won some counties in her district, but Evers swept the rest of the state. He was strongest up north, where Dems have struggled lately. #WIPrimary pic.twitter.com/7BznMiVGqL
— J. Miles Coleman (@JMilesColeman) August 15, 2018
Remember, Walker has never pulled more than 53% in a Governor’s elections to begin with, even in GOP years like 2010 and 2014. Now you get these double-digit changes around Milwaukee and Madison combined with Evers being able to hold his own in rural areas, and Scotty is DONE.
And doesn’t Scotty know it. Look at this loser talk from yesterday.
Facing "race of our lifetime" in WI, @ScottWalker warns supporters that after Tuesday's primary he may trail whomever Dems nominate.
— Craig Gilbert (@WisVoter) August 13, 2018
Says:
“You could have Daffy Duck on the ballot for the Democrats, and they’ll start out with at least 48% of the vote."https://t.co/MSEfIfzvJz
Except that Dems haven't pulled 48% in any of Walker's 3 elections, and both Russ Feingold and Hillary Clinton coukdn't get to 47% in 2016. So it sounds like the 2018 version of Scott Walker is already less liked than previous ones, and that the 2018 Dems are in a much better spot.
It reminds me that I may hate the 21st Century GOP’s whining more than any other attribute of those jerkoffs. And if Tuesday’s turnout figures are any indication of what we’ll see in November, expect to hear a lot more bitching from the Republicans as things drift away from them.
No comments:
Post a Comment