Strong July jobs report in Wisconsin, but big picture still weak

This week featured another Wisconsin jobs report, and July's figures were very good for our state.

The state added 9,100 private sector jobs and 8,700 total non-farm jobs from June 2018 to July. One-month gains were significant in durable goods [manufacturing] (+2,400) and Health Care and Social Assistance (+2,800).

In brief, the seasonally adjusted estimates show:

• Place of Residence Data: Wisconsin's preliminary seasonally adjusted unemployment rate remained at 2.9 percent in July, up slightly from the record low of 2.8 percent experienced in April and May of 2018. Wisconsin's labor force participation rate remained at 68.9 percent in July, 6 percentage points higher than the national rate.

• Place of Work Data: From July 2017 to July 2018, Wisconsin added a statistically significant 38,500 private-sector and 21,300 manufacturing jobs, as defined by BLS. Wisconsin also added 9,100 private-sector jobs, 8,700 total non-farm jobs and 2,500 manufacturing jobs from June 2018 to July.

Pretty good report all around. I continue to be very skeptical of the great gains the Walker Administration keeps reporting in manufacturing (they’ve been revised down numerous times in recent years), but there were also solid gains in the service sectors (+6,200) and June’s jobs numbers were revised up by 1,200 private sector jobs and 200 overall.

Even though the household employment stalled out (down by 2,100), 2.9% is still basically full employment, and maybe the disparities in Wisconsin between in "employment" vs "jobs" in the household and payroll surveys is being smoothed out (both are now in the mid-to-upper 30,000s for the last 12 months).

Given that our Fair Governor is losing in the polls, he needed some good news, and welcomed this strong initial jobs report.

ICYMI: Wisconsin has now added over 28,000 private sector jobs during the first half of 2018! “Wisconsin added 9,100 private sector jobs in July.” @BizTimesMedia #WIWorkinghttps://t.co/IRKr9Mv3ct

— Governor Walker (@GovWalker) August 17, 2018

Hold on there, Scotty. It’s not like Wisconsin is pulling away from the pack with these figures. Just cast your eyes across the Saint Croix River, where Minnesota added 11,200 jobs in July, and had its unemployment rate drop to 3.0%. In addition, the newly-released state-by-state comparisons show that Minnesota continues to grow more jobs than Wisconsin over the last 12 months.

Job change, July 2017- July 2018
All jobs
Minn +43,100 (+1.47%)
Wis. +38,800 (+1.32%)

Private-sector jobs
Minn +38,700 (+1.54%)
Wis. +38,500 (+1.52%)

Total job change, Midwest July 2017-July 2018
Mich +1.52%
Ohio +1.49%
Minn +1.47%
Wis. +1.32%
Iowa +1.21%
Ill. +1.09%
Ind. +0.61%

It’s also funny to see Walker talking up Wisconsin’s recent job gains, given that they are coming after Walker reversed his prior positions in 2017. The reversals include finally adding back some money to public schools, increasing rates of reimbursement for health care providers and nursing homes, and trying to limit the increases in the cost of health care instead of actively sabotaging the ACA. It's almost like these more liberal policies work better in adding jobs than the ALEC austerity that this state was under before 2017.

These pre-election band-aids don’t repair all the damage that happened for the first 7 years of the Age of Fitzwalkerstan. Despite the recently strong numbers, the job losses in April and May in Wisconsin means that there has been little change in the Walker jobs gap for the first 7 months of 2018.

Walker jobs gap
All jobs
Dec 2017 138,900
July 2018 137,600

Private sector jobs
Dec 2017 133,000
July 2018 136,600

There's an even more important jobs report dropping next week – the “gold standard” Quarterly Census on Employment and Wages (QCEW). This report has consistently shown the monthly jobs figures from the Walker Administration to be overestimated, lets us give a more thorough comparison between Wisconsin and the other 50 states, and also includes wage information that the monthly DWD reports does not have.

Interestingly, the Walker Administration’s report did not include the typical “preview” of the QCEW numbers that would be expected this month, and I’m wondering if that’s because those figures aren’t as rosy as the initial reports that came out a few months ago (which would be SOP for this crew). We’ll start to find out next week if my theory is right, and we’ll get more detail in early September as to where those jobs are, and how much they’re (not) paying.

Look, gaining jobs are better than losing jobs, and that shouldn’t be ignored. But I’d prefer my governors not to have to face the pressure of an election to have to do the things that more successful states like Minnesota have been doing all along. And if Tony Evers and other Dems aren’t elected in 80 days to get us back to investing in our resources in all years (not just ones before elections), you can bet that we will see Wisconsin backslide even more on the jobs, wage, and investment fronts in 2019.