Tuesday, November 6, 2018

And now, enjoy this set of pre-election bar charts

This is more of a visualization than what I was talking about yesterday. I am using the statewide results in Wisconsin for President in 2012 (Obama by 6.8%), 2014 Governor (Walker by 5.7%) and 2016 President (Trump +0.7%). These seem like good guides to compare tonight's result with as they come in. (All of these charts will use how Dems did vs GOPs as a baseline, so +5 means Dems won by 5, and -5 means the GOP won by 5).

First of all, let's go to the Milwaukee metro area. What's remarkable about 2016 is that Hillary Clinton did better than Barack Obama in all of these counties, with Democrats improving by anywhere from 10-22 points in Milwaukee County and the 3 pro-GOP WOW Counties.

The question here is twofold. 1. Turnout, as the City of Milwaukee undervoted in 2016, which was a big reason Hillary Clinton lost by 22,000 votes statewide. 2. Will the trend away from Trump in 2016 continue, or will Walker continue to clean up in this area. If Evers is even within 30-35 points in these counties, that's a notable improvement from Burke in 2014.
Now let's look a little further north from the Milwaukee metro area. 

Northeastern Wisconsin has been key to Scott Walker's success, and also Donald Trump's in 2016. By comparison, Obama basically played Romney to near-even in this area outside of Fond du Lac, and won in Winnebago County (Oshkosh). 

Now we head down Highway 29 and I-94, and see a couple of high-voting counties in the north central and northwest part of the state. 

Marathon County has slanted hard to the right since 2012, but Trump also did several points better than Romney in 2016. If Evers is performing around Obama 2012 levels in these counties, it not only likely means he wins, but also may lead to good things for some swingy and flippable seats in the Legislature for Dems. 

And the biggest indicator of a good night for Dems downticket may come from this next chart. 

This is largely La Crosse and the Driftless area of the state, which is traditionally Dem in national races, and even went against Walker in 2014, but slanted hard to Trump in 2016. Turnout patterns indicated more Dem votes in both the Supreme Court election and the primaries in 2018, and if that area stays blue tonight, it likely means solid Dem wins downticket in a few open Assembly seats and the big-money Senate race between Kriss Marion and Howard Marklein. 

Lastly, let's go into South Central Wisconsin, where Dems often win, but a lot of voters slipped away from the Dems outside of Dane County in 2016. 

For Evers to win, he needs to get near a combination of Obama 2012 in the counties outside of Dane County, and a Clinton 2016 number in the Mad City. Given reports of near-presidential year turnout in Madtown, this could give Evers a big vote lead that would be hard for Walker to make back in a neutral year. 

 Well, less than 3 hours to go. Now we wait. 

1 comment:

  1. Not feeling confident. Democrats have been underperforming to polls across the country. I just can't believe so many people keep voting for Walker with his record. Maybe voter suppression strikes again.