WHO ARE THESE PEOPLE? Outside of the fact that they are likely very low-info, I was curious to see which counties in the state voted for both Baldwin and Walker to see if there was a geographic area. And it largely seems to be in many of the benchmark "swing" areas of the state.
Baldwin vs Vukmir, US Senate
Evers vs Walker, Wis Governor
Baldwin/Walker counties
Northeast
Brown- Baldwin +2.9%, Walker +8.4% (11.3% difference Dem vs GOP)
Outagamie- Baldwin +0.3%, Walker +10.9% (11.2% difference)
Winnebago- Baldwin +6.5%, Walker +3.6% (10.1% difference)
Door- Baldwin +11.5%, Walker +2.3% (13.8% difference)
West
Trempealeau- Baldwin +3.2%, Walker +10.1% (13.3% difference)
Jackson Baldwin +9.5%, Walker +5.2% (14.7% difference)
Dunn Baldwin +6.1%, Walker +3.2% (9.3% difference)
Pierce Baldwin +5.5%, Walker +3.1% (8.6% difference)
South
Racine Baldwin +4.8%, Walker +4.9% (9.7% difference)
Lafayette Baldwin +10.7%, Walker +2.8% (13.5% difference)
I don't live in one of these ticket-splitting areas (my home county went for Baldwin and Evers by 50%+), but any theories beyond low-info stuff as to why this may have happened. It also indicates to me that if Walker was tied to Trump and ALEC like Vukmir was (and like how Walker was tying HIMSELF to), he likely would have lost by more.
PS- Here's the first of what will likely be a few intetesting Wisconsin vote maps from J. Miles Coleman of Decision Desk HQ.
Last week, Gov. Scott Walker (R) lost in his 4th #WIGov race. Here's where he did best each time. In Madison & Milwaukee, he hit his strongest #s in 2010. In most counties, his best margins were in the 2012 recall. While he lost, some northern counties liked him most this year. pic.twitter.com/8WVdxKT4G7
— J. Miles Coleman (@JMilesColeman) November 14, 2018
Incumbency matters - and Leah Vukmir is not at all a likable sort.
ReplyDeleteThey also put much too much into the Tomah VA story. I doubt most moderates put much weight on that, and Baldwin's crew countered the attack at least reasonably well.