Wednesday, November 14, 2018

Baldwin/Walker counties - what does that tell us?

I wanted to give a quick note about this alleged result from the exit polls made during last week's elections in Wisconsin.


WHO ARE THESE PEOPLE? Outside of the fact that they are likely very low-info, I was curious to see which counties in the state voted for both Baldwin and Walker to see if there was a geographic area. And it largely seems to be in many of the benchmark "swing" areas of the state.

Baldwin vs Vukmir, US Senate

Evers vs Walker, Wis Governor

Baldwin/Walker counties
Northeast
Brown- Baldwin +2.9%, Walker +8.4% (11.3% difference Dem vs GOP)
Outagamie- Baldwin +0.3%, Walker +10.9% (11.2% difference)
Winnebago- Baldwin +6.5%, Walker +3.6% (10.1% difference)
Door- Baldwin +11.5%, Walker +2.3% (13.8% difference)

West
Trempealeau- Baldwin +3.2%, Walker +10.1% (13.3% difference)
Jackson Baldwin +9.5%, Walker +5.2% (14.7% difference)
Dunn Baldwin +6.1%, Walker +3.2% (9.3% difference)
Pierce Baldwin +5.5%, Walker +3.1% (8.6% difference)

South
Racine Baldwin +4.8%, Walker +4.9% (9.7% difference)
Lafayette Baldwin +10.7%, Walker +2.8% (13.5% difference)

I don't live in one of these ticket-splitting areas (my home county went for Baldwin and Evers by 50%+), but any theories beyond low-info stuff as to why this may have happened. It also indicates to me that if Walker was tied to Trump and ALEC like Vukmir was (and like how Walker was tying HIMSELF to), he likely would have lost by more.

PS- Here's the first of what will likely be a few intetesting Wisconsin vote maps from J. Miles Coleman of Decision Desk HQ.

1 comment:

  1. Incumbency matters - and Leah Vukmir is not at all a likable sort.

    They also put much too much into the Tomah VA story. I doubt most moderates put much weight on that, and Baldwin's crew countered the attack at least reasonably well.

    ReplyDelete