Monday, November 5, 2018

The voting numbers we know so far

Just a couple of numbers to keep in mind this morning.

And combine it with this.

And give a side order of this.

And people with college degrees are generally more likely to move around out of state, and keep area codes on their phones that aren't from the state they live in.

Yes, early votes can cannibalize votes on Election Day (I made that mistake of conflating the two in 2016), but this feels different, like a legitimate show of disgust and anger.

I hope to get more inti the turnout numbers tonight, but the more I look at these demos, the further off the last Bradley Foundation Marquette Poll looks to me, by undercounting younger voters.

I just hope the "error" was unintentional, and not a green light for Walker abd WISGOP to try to steal it.


  1. I remain guardedly hopeful. Really, I'm looking for a divided government where people are forced to work together and the middle has a chance to hold.

    While it's been eight years since a Democrat had much of anything to say about state level affairs, we should also remember that this crowd kicked moderate Republicans out too. They not only took it over, they radicalized it, and I think that only works when a single party has the whole ship.

    As an aside, I saw a Scott Walker banner on your site and clicked through to see the nonsense being peddled. They must be worried.

    1. The Walker campaign just seems to send BS based on certain code words, and I noticed a few of those polluting some of the pages I looked at today. No wonder why Walker went broke in both his presidential and state campaigns, and has needed to borrow millions from the RPW and Kleefisch to stay afloat in the last month.

      I also put myself under "guardedly hopeful". I'm looking at how both campaigns are acting, and they both seem to indicate Evers has a slight advantage. But you GOTTA FINISH tomorrow.