Tuesday, June 19, 2018

Walker is now the "education governor"? So why are rural schools closing and cutting?

Oh, now Scott Walker is now rebranding himself as the “education governor”?
Walker on Tuesday will release a statewide television ad following the style of several others released since the launch of his re-election campaign: a testimony from someone else, followed by a message from the governor.

The latest ad features an elementary school special education teacher from Racine named Anita.

"I can tell you one size does not fit all when it comes to our kids. And Gov. Walker gets it. He gave schools flexibility to put money where it matters most, in our classroom. And his latest budget adds $200 more per year for every student," the teacher says in the ad.

The flexibility the teacher references is Walker's signature Act 10 legislation, which eliminated most public employees' collective bargaining rights and required them to pay more into their pensions and health insurance premiums.
Naturally, the Walker campaign doesn’t tell you that the teacher in the ad is a Tea Party nut who’s made a living off of wingnut welfare. So Scot Ross of One Wisconsin Now had to tell us instead.


That dishonesty aside, there’s the bigger issue of “adding more money to schools.” It’s a nice one-time measure of a two-year increase in per-pupil aids ($200 in year 1, $204 more in year 2), but that is all that Wisconsin schools are getting, and that’s not nearly enough to make up for the billions in cuts that those schools sustained in the 6 years before then.

It’s telling that another form of Walker's “increased school spending” is actually an $87 million increase in the School Levy property tax credit, which doesn’t go into the classroom at all. And schools with declining students and tax bases are still badly hurting, particularly since this year there was no meaningful increase in general school aids (intended to help low tax-base schools), and strict limits on property tax increases didn’t allow for further investment. And general aids barely increase for this next school year (1.6%, well below the rate of inflation).

Julie Bosman recently focused on the funding woes in rural Wisconsin schools in an article for the New York Times. In this long, in-depth feature, it shows a disturbing trend of small towns in Wisconsin continuing to lose their schools, staff, and their communities.

This is happening 7 years after Act 10 was supposed to make things better. So why is it happening? A lack of opportunity in small towns means that younger people leave, school enrollments continue to fall, with no chance to make up the difference.
Over five school years, ending with the spring of 2016, 71 percent of rural districts in the state saw a drop in enrollment, said Sarah Kemp, a school demographer at the University of Wisconsin-Madison.

In Potosi, a town in western Wisconsin, Ronald S. Saari, the district administrator, said his district was down to 320 students from kindergarten to 12th grade, all housed in one building. Nothing is left to cut, he said....

About 15 years ago, the graduating classes in the River Valley School District, then a relatively robust 160 students, began to shrink.

Administrators were faced with several choices, none appealing: Get more money from taxpayers through a referendum; reduce costs by closing elementary schools and eliminating staff positions; or cut more programs, like electives at the middle school and Advanced Placement classes in the high school.

The Arena school, which had 94 students in its final months, tried remaking itself into a public charter school with a STEM focus in 2014, receiving grants of more than $350,000 for new iPads and laptops, teacher training and consultants. But it was not nearly enough. Thomas R. Wermuth, the district administrator, studied enrollment projections and saw that the student shortage was not going to turn around. The state doles out aid partly based on head count; the new law to aid thinly populated districts wouldn’t help River Valley, which has too many students overall to qualify.
This is where we need to remember that the per-pupil aid increases that Walker constantly talks up don’t help districts like River Valley much, because of these stagnant and/or declining enrollments. The same issue afflicted the district that Walker graduated high school in, at Delavan-Darien, where an April referendum failed and led to the closing of Darien Elementary, with more than 1/5 of the district’s teachers being laid off.


Simple electoral math tells you that Scott Walker is already hated in Madison and Milwaukee, and you’d think more people would be fired up to vote in “Blue Wave Year 2018” to add volume along with the 3-1 margin that’ll be against Gov Dropout in those cities. Which means rural areas are places where Scott (“52%”) Walker can’t afford to lose any support in if he wants to stay in office, and seeing the schools close and deteriorate is a sure way to lose low-info and/or independent rural voters.

Which helps explain why this desperate grifter is now flying around at taxpayer expense and crashing into classrooms trying to claim he’s a “pro-education” governor to keep from bleeding any more votes. Good luck in thinking those empty words are going to convince average Wisconsinites to ignore the declining reality that they see every day.

But it does remind me of the theme song of the Walker 2018 campaign.


Monday, June 18, 2018

It sucks that Wisconsin is still gerrymandered All the more reason to take out Walker

We waited months to find out whether Wisconsin's maps were illegally gerrymanderd. And we ended up with....this?


Basically, SCOTUS punted on having to answer the question as to whether the Wisconsin GOP's maps should be struck down. Instead, Chief Justice John Roberts claimed that the individuals had to prove that their right to representation and/or voting was prevented by such a gerrymander, instead of having a group of people (Democrats) be the ones claiming discrimination and injury.
Under normal circumstances, Roberts wrote, "we usually direct the dismissal" of the case. He added, "This is not the usual case."

The court opted instead to send the case back to the lower court so the challengers might have another chance to "prove concrete and particularized injuries" by showing there had been a burden on their individual votes. That showing, in turn, would allow the challengers to proceed to the merits of the case....

Roberts stressed that "we express no view on the merits of the plaintiffs' case." But he also cautioned that such challenges might be hard to bring down the road.

He noted that how the challengers bring these cases is key.

"It is a case about group political interests, not individual legal rights," he wrote. "But the Court is not responsible for vindicating generalized partisan preferences. The Court's constitutionally prescribed role is to vindicate the individual rights of the people before it."
Law professor Rick Hasen is always a great read on laws related to voting and elections, and he wrote a piece breaking down the (non)-decision for Slate. Hasen says while all 9 justices agreed not to strike down Wisconsin's map (for now), and 7 agreed that it was still an open question whether one-sided gerrymandering could be struck down, an ultimate decision will come down to whether Anthony Kennedy goes with right-wing John Roberts, or left-wing Elena Kagen. Notably, both justices authored opinions in the case.
Roberts’ opinion is deceptively minimalist, as is his style. All the court decided was that these questions need to be assessed on a district-by-district level. The court explicitly said it was saying nothing about whether there were standards to separate permissible from impermissible use of partisan information in drawing district lines. Indeed, it would be perfectly consistent with Roberts’ opinion for the court to say, in a few years when the case comes back: Sorry, you’ve met the standing requirements, but you have no injury. Case closed.

Justice Kagan signed onto that majority opinion but did two things in a separate concurring opinion for herself and the other liberal justices. First, she said it should be relatively easy to meet the standing requirements in a district-by-district claim, regardless of whether one sits in a district that is “packed” (cram lots of people of one party into a single district) or “cracked” (spread voters from one party around). She suggested that if the substantive standard for proving partisan gerrymandering is bad partisan intent, it will be pretty easy to prove injury in these districts.

Second, and more to the point of enticing Justice Hamlet [Kennedy], Justice Kagan glommed onto Justice Kennedy’s favorite theory for what’s wrong with partisan gerrymandering: It is a First Amendment associational injury. In Justice Kennedy’s thinking, partisan gerrymandering might be unconstitutional if people are suffering in their political representation solely because they are members of one party or another. Justice Kagan not only fleshed out and endorsed that theory (the beauty pageant again). She also tried to prebut any standing objections, suggesting that state political parties would be in an excellent legal position to assert a First Amendment injury across an entire state when the state has engaged in egregious redistricting.

It’s a nice theory, but it only works with Justice Kennedy coming along. And Kennedy did not come along for the ride Monday with Justice Kagan. He didn’t reject it either, leaving him where he’s been since 2004, in the middle, watching the action around him.
Today's (in)decision was a pathetic bailout by SCOTUS, to be sure. But it also leaves one sure-fire way to end gerrymandering in Wisconsin starting in 4 years - booting out Scott Walker this November. Flipping the State Senate or even the Assembly in 2020 also would guarantee fair maps, but you can't gerrymander a statewide vote, and any governor can veto maps no matter who is on charge.

And that's why I wonder if the GOP "winning" this redistricting case might hurt them more than it helps them, at least at the ballot box in November. Because one of the last things independent voters support is gerrymandering and related election-rigging. Related to that, WisDems should think "Challenge Accepted", and have extra motivation to win this Fall.

Now Wisconsin Dems can tell the voters "We are the only party that will end gerrymandering in Wisconsin." And they'd better say it early and often for the next 4 1/2 months.

Wisconsin floods expose bad Walker/WisGOP choices on roads, Nat'l Guard

I may have been roasting in 95-degree heat and humidity this week, but that wasn’t the case for northwest Wisconsin this weekend. They got hammered with catastrophic rainstorms and flooding that seem to have become all too common in recent years up there.
Heavy rains over the past several days have caused flooding in northern Wisconsin that has caused at least two deaths and resulted in a number of closures and washouts to roads including U.S. highways 53, 63 and 2. The rainfall is expected to cause high waters in some areas similar to flooding that occurred in June 2012, according to the National Weather Service….

At least half a dozen people needed to be rescued on Sunday due to flooding, according to Bayfield County Sheriff Paul Susienka.

"It's been really difficult. Often times it takes so much longer than normal because we have to take alternate routes to get around," he said. "We're finding washed out roads as we try to respond to calls because we haven't gotten reports on obviously every road yet."

Susienka said the flooding in Bayfield County seems worse than the deluge that occurred two years ago because the damage to roads is more widespread. U.S. Highway 2 near Ino has been washed out between County Highway G and Tomich Road. The Wisconsin Department of Transportation said the damage will mean a long-term closure, according to Jessica Felix, the agency's northwest region deputy director…

However, Felix said it was unknown at this time how long repairs may take. U.S. 63 was closed in Bayfield County for about a month after flooding in July 2016. Felix added that the department is suspending all oversize/overweight permits in Douglas, Ashland, Bayfield and Iron counties. In addition, southbound traffic on U.S. Highway 53 has been redirected to the northbound lane by Bennett and Solon Springs.


This means the state is going to have to get more aid from FEMA and the FHWA to get the washed-away roads from this weekend back into functional shape, and it could take a significant amount of time to do so. This is awful for the region, as the height of tourist season looming in these areas.

And the timing is even more tragic because it came just days after the GOP-controlled Joint Finance Committee chose to direct less than 10% of more than $67 million in new federal funding toward highways such as 53, 63, and 2. Meanwhile, the I-94 South project near the Foxconn development got nearly 3 times as much as the rest of the state did, despite the fact that the I-94 project already got a $160 million earmark from the US DOT earlier this month.

Yes, the GOPs on the JFC agreed to send an extra $38.6 million to repair bridges around the state in the same project, and that will help somewhat. But a preliminary list of projects from the Legislative Fiscal Bureau’s summary of the plans for the new bridge projects shows that only one bridge project is in the four counties most affected by this weekend’s storms. Which means there will need to be extra money taken away from other projects in the state to make up for these now-urgent repairs.

But there’s only $5.3 million available for the Transportation fund to pay for such disasters in this current budget, even though 2015-17 had $6.5 million in payments. Walker and WisGOP tried to roll the dice, and gamble that there would be fewer disasters to pay for in the next two years. Now there’s going to have to be some way to pay for this in the next fiscal year that we likely don’t have the funds to pay for, which means an already-low cushion of funds (because of pre-election Walker/WisGOP giveaways) just got smaller.

It’s worth noting that we’re barely 2 months removed from northern Wisconsin finally getting federal aid to repair roads and reimburse costs related to damage from major storms in each of the prior two years.
The money comes from the Federal Highway Administration with most of it slated for federal road repairs in the Chequamegon-Nicolet National Forest and on the Bad River Band of the Lake Superior Tribe of Chippewa Indians Reservation. Just more than $10 million will go to the U.S. Forest Service to rebuild roads that have been washed out since 2016.

Chequamegon-Nicolet National Forest spokeswoman Hilary Markin said the money will be used to help fund permanent repairs.

"We actually have eight portions of roads that were closed where emergency repairs were not possible given the size and scope of damage," Markin said. "We do have a closure order in place for those roads."…

Nearly $5 million in federal highway funds will be spread among 22 counties.

Parts of northern and western Wisconsin were declared federal disaster areas after storms quickly dropped more than 10 inches of rain in both 2016 and 2017.


Same area, different flood

It sure sounds like Wisconsin is going to need to start allocating more money to defray weather-related disasters, because these things seem to be happening more, and at higher costs (the point that WisGOP is so Koched up in climate change denial that they don’t want to admit this almost goes without saying).

Also, we’d usually see the Wisconsin National Guard trying to help these communities deal with the flooding and ultimate cleanup, but instead we have word today that troops in the Wisconsin Guard are heading southwest to help the State of Arizona “secure the border” with Mexico. Yes, the feds are going to pay for the Guard’s run to the border, but someone in our media might want to ask Our Fair Governor if that’s a good use of our limited resources while multiple parts of the state are flooded out.

Floods like these are tragic and inconvenient at any time, but having it come at a time when highway repair funds are already unacceptably short and right before the 4th of July make it especially devastating for northwest Wisconsin. And maybe we need to have people in charge at the Capitol that are prepared to deal with this disasters and have the money and personnel to adequately offer assistance.

Because Scott Walker and the rest of the WisGOP crew seem to care more about getting headlines from throwing more tax dollars down to Foxconn-sin while pandering for campaign donations from the Kochs and other oil oligarchs. We also could use a governor that doesn’t choose to send our National Guard members out of state to give winks and nods to xenophobic bigots over helping the Wisconsinites that pay their salaries.

And given the multiple inches of rain that fell in Central Wisconsin today, and big storms slated to hit throughout Southern Wisconsin today and tonight, I have bad fears these misplaced priorities will be laid bare a few more times before this Summer is out.

Sunday, June 17, 2018

Thoughts from a hot time in SW Tennessee

A few quick observations on the things I've noticed in Memphis over the weekend.

1. The city is trying to make a comeback, with the typical gentrification of certain run-down areas and local brewpub/eateries. Given the cultural/musical/food history of the place, it fits reasonably well, even though the overall metro area is economically stagnant with high levels of crime and poverty. It's worth the trip.

2. Memphis Summer heat is not like the few hot days you get in the Upper Midwest. It's been 95 all weekend with an unforgiving, higher sun, and no wind. Very occasionally a pop-up storm hits for a few minutes, and then it starts all over. And unlike Wisconsin, every day is like this for 3-4 months. No thanks.

3. The "sales tax on food" thing is a real difference when you go to a grocery store. Or even when you go to a local Farmers Market, where everyone has to give change since the 7.75% tax is thrown in on everything.

And you can bet Wacko Macco and Koo-Koo Kooyenga would try to do some version of "broadening" the sales tax to food under the guise of "tax reform" should the voters of Wisconsin be stupid enough to keep the GOP in power past November. Gotta pay for more income tax cuts to donors in some way, right?

4. There are yard signs and ads everywhere for state/Congress primaries and county elections. I figured this meant they were happening in the next week or two. No, they don't vote until August 2, less than 2 weeks before we vote in Wisconsin.

Governor, Senate, and House races are all open seats in these parts for November, so there are a lot of people running, especially on the GOP side. Almost all the ads you see are GOP ads, and almost all of them consist of some version of these themes.

1. I hate abortion (cue picture of baby)

2. I hate illegal immigrants (sometimes the "illegal" part is left out).

3. I'm a businessman/woman who has conservative values/Jesus in my life. With 1 and 2 hinted at as well.

You know what you don't hear? One thing about policy on any other issue. This includes the GOP Tax Scam, which is doubly odd because Tennessee comes out great in that one because they have no state income tax, so they don't get screwed by the SALT changes. Tells you how hated that Tax Scam really is.

It also shows that the typical 2018 GOP HAS NOTHING TO OFFER other than the hates, fears, and self-superiority of mediocre white people. And it's sickening that so much of our politics is held hostage by this fraction of a fraction of a fraction. They really need to be put out of power and sent to the wilderness for a while.

Back to more serious manners when I get back to the North and back to work tomorrow. And a Happy Father's Day for those of you that are in such a status.

Saturday, June 16, 2018

Now we know Wisconsin's Spring job losses are the worst in the US

Thursday's news of 5,300 private sector jobs (and 4,700 overall) being lost in Wisconsin in May and April's losses being revised up to 5,600 was bad enough. But then the Bureau of Labor Statistics released the jobs numbers for all 50 states, and Wisconsin ended up at the bottom of a number of stats.

States with total job loss, May 2018
La. -200
Okla -200
Miss. -300
Ver. -500
Wyo. -500
Nev. -700
Wis. -4,700

We also "stand out" for the worst performance since March

States with job loss, March-May 2018
Miss. -900
Mont. -800
N.J. -2,300
Wis. -9,600

And we also are badly underperforming our Midwestern neighbors, as most states in our part of the country had notable job gains in May.

Job change, Midwest, May 2018
Ohio +22,600
Mich +11,800
Minn +10,200
Ill. +8,600
Ind. +4,000
Iowa +3,300
Wis. -4,700

In addition, the BLS says 34 of 50 states nationwide and 6 out if 7 Midwestern states had statistically significant job gains over the last 12 months. The only Midwestern state left out? Wisconsin.

Job change, Midwest, May 2017 - May 2018
Ohio +1.38%
Mich +1.32%
Iowa +1.09%
Ind. +1.07%
Minn +1.03%
Ill. +0.995%
Wis. +0.69%

This horrid underperformance should get any political leader removed, let alone a crooked, incompetent fool like Gov Dropout. Can you explain to me how our bought-off media isnt putting these facts on the front page of their newspapers and broadcasts?

Also, if the Wisconsin Dems aren't doing major media events and RUNNING ADS AND BILLBOARDS highlighting this "dead last" status (so media and casual citizens aren't allowed to ignore it), they need tp be replaced with people who can hammer that reality into people's heads.

Friday, June 15, 2018

Low wages and no people coming to state = Wis jobs tank in May

FYI, I'm down South to see my Dad, so I'm not as able to do stuff as quickly this weekend. So it may be a bit brief on the blog for a few days.

Given that our Fair Guv has been jetting around the state for numerous "job announcement" photo ops that just happen to be at campaign contributors, I had an inkling that yesterday's Wisconsin jobs report may be bad.

Then I read the headline of Walker's DWD mentioning "around 45,000 manufacturing jobs since 2010" (a relatively meaningless stat, given the Obama Recovery), and I said, "Yep, it's bad."

But I opened the link to the report, and it was even worse than I suspected.

Wisconsin jobs, May 2018

All jobs -4,700
Private sector jobs -5,300

April revisions
All jobs -3,900
Private sector jobs -2,500

And given that April already reported minor job losses, this means that for the last two months, Wisconsin has lost 10,900 private sector jobs and 9,600 jobs overall.

Many of these job "losses" reflect lower-than-average seasonal hiring at sectors like bars, hotels, and retail. And maybe that's a reflection of the low unemployment rate in the state. But maybe it's also a reflection of the fact that a $7.25 minimum wage and reduced food stamp and medical benefits for those workers in poverty aren't cutting it these days.

The household report keeps unemployment at 2.8%, and claims more Wisconsinites are "working." I find the same report's claim of 4,000 more "employed" to be suspicious at best (where are all these people "working"? Uber? At home? Minnesota? Illinois?). And given that it becomes a Walker/WISGOP talking point that too much state media chooses to emphasize over the job losses, I really would like to see who is called on that household survey.

When combined with reporting 10,200 more jobs in May, it is obvious that Wisconsin fell far behind in May, and our low wages and regressive GOP policies are not attracting the people we need to keep up with the competition. That has to be changed, and this Fall's elections are a great way to stop the losing.

Thursday, June 14, 2018

Special elections still showing WisDem gains.

Wanted to give a quick look back at Tuesday's special elections in Wisconsin. Let's start with the State Senate race, where Dems got another GOP-held seat to flip, as Caleb Frostman beat Andre ("The Handmaid's Tale") Jacque.

As usual, J Miles Coleman of Decision Desk HQ had great charts which broke down the votes in these two races. In the Senate race, the key to the 2.8% victory for Frostman came from his home area of Door County, which has overwhlemingly turned blue in the last 2 statewide races.


Even though the Appleton eastern suburbs are a small part of the district, they have decent population. And these areas also went for Frostman.




Dallet also won these areas in April, and if those areas and others around Appleton stay blue in November, there is little way Scott Walker to win a third term for governor. And don't think Scotty doesn't know it, which helps explain why he was in the area on Tuesday throwing out $60 million in WEDC funds to help a campaign donor Green Bay Packaging expand.

Moving over to the Assembly race, the Republicans held onto the seat, with John Plumer beating Ann Groves Lloyd 53-45. As Coleman notes, this was still a 6 point shift to the Dems from November 2016, but it also removed about half of the gain Dallet got in April.


You can see that Plumer held his own in Columbia County, actually edging out Lloyd overall, and then ran up the score in the absurdly red eastern part of the district to get the win. Which led to the following analysis from former GOP Rep. Joe Handrick.


But hey, that's just the way you drew it up, isn't it Joe? You know, when you and the GOP leadership went Off the Square and illegally gerrymandered the state in 2011?

Overall, it's another step forward for Dems and the "Blue Wave 2018" theme, which keeps some on the bandwagon, and encourages more to get on. There's still plenty of work to do in the next 5 months, but only having to flip 2 GOP seats to win the Senate is a lot better than having to flip 3 this Fall. And if even half of the shift to the Dems that we've seen in these special elections holds up, Scott Walker and any other GOP running statewide is in BIG trouble.

Lastly, never forget that the only reason these elections were happening this week is because Scott Walker wanted to cancel them entirely and had to be dragged to court to be forced to follow state law. These races would have happened at the same time as the Supreme Court race in April, at no extra expense to the local communities, had Scotty simply done his damn job and scheduled them when he hired the two GOP legislators that decided to cash in. But he chose not to.

Scotty pulled those shenanigans because Gov "Unintimidated" thought GOPs would lose and be in a weaker position for November, and in Senate District 1, he was proven correct. Those facts can't be allowed to slip down the memory hole for the next 21 weeks.