Some may say that the fact that the WisGOP/Walker machine plans to blast through "work-for-less" is a reason for those of us who oppose this theft to hold our fire. I completely disagree. We need to be speaking up and exposing these crimes against workers and most of the rest of Wisconsin, and send the message that we do not approve.
See, Scott Walker's main message as a presidential candidate is to appeal to the Nxion/Cheney wing, and show that has smashed all opposition, and that the people must follow along with what he wants to do, even if it has nothing to do with what he said on the campaign trail.
Instead, we can turn the tables, expose how radical and failed these policies are, and sink Walker and the GOP nationally and in the state of Wisconsin. But only if we speak up and refuse to accept the budget-ridden economic underperformance that is happening to our state.
That's my thoughts on the strategy and approach to take. The budget is clearly caving in, as yesterday's subpar revenue figures show (corporate taxes down 21% from Jan 2014!), and work-for-less is not likely what most Wisconsinites elected these people to do (if it was, they would have said so outside of the 262. They did not). So this time, we keep up the pressure, and don't water it down like the DPW has tried to do far too often.
Jake, welcome back. I've been hoping you would comment on the latest jobs numbers as well as revenue. Current stories seem to have dropped context such as graphs comparing Wisconsin job growth to other states and the nation. Do you k ow where we can find and track such info? Thanks.
ReplyDeleteHere's what I did after the latest QCEW jobs report that dropped in December, which showed Wisconsin dead last in the Midwest for job growth.
DeleteThe QCEW prelim numbers from the state dropped yesterday, and at first glance, it looks like year-over-year growth was even slower than the last place finish in the last report. Naturally, this was floated out while work-for-less was having its debate, to hide the added failure
The QCEW 2014Q3 quarter in the pre-released figures that replaces the 2013Q3 quarter in the annual accounting indicates a drop of -18,406 private sector jobs in place of a drop of -10,874 (that they're negative isn't very surprising since they are not seasonally-adjusted, the important thing is the change between them).
DeleteIn the meantime, the monthly stats for the nation as a whole (not as precise as QCEW, but avoids much jumping around due to the law of large numbers that state-level monthly figures are often prone to) show that 2014Q3 produced +72,000 jobs vs 2013Q3's loss of -43,000.
2014Q3 was a quarter of notable improvement for the national jobs picture; and at the same time being a quarter of notable worsening for Wisconsin's. Our national ranking is sure to fall from 2014Q2's 32nd (probably to the high 30s).
In fact with these figures, the average annual growth over the three years 2011Q3 - 2014Q3 is 27,315/year. That's less than 2010's annual growth of 29,800 that Walker inherited.
High 30s at the least, could well be bottom 10, given how the rest of the country is improving. And I want to see if the benchmark revisions for the state numbers tank as a result of this, which would come out next week and seem likely.
DeleteIt really seems like things are imploding in a time that we should be booming, doesn't it?
And recall that corporate income tax collections are projected to recover, and then increase to higher levels than last year even in the next biennium. Meanwhile Walker's budget assumes individual income taxes will simply go up and up for the next two years, despite the figures that come rolling out month after month.
ReplyDeleteNow we can see the impact of the M&A credit.
And now, with the stage set and the die cast, we wait to see the refund figures. Yet the state newspapers act as if by saying so, Walker has made it so, and all will go accordingly.
Viewing the present happenings at the Capitol all one can do is quote Starbuck's line from the movie Moby Dick (the line isn't Melville's) "I see mad men beget more mad men".
Dr. Morbius
Jake,
ReplyDeleteSorry about an error. The overly-optimistic corporate income tax projections are contained the Walker Budget--I didn't make that very clear.
I cannot see how these revenue projections (let's just not even talk about the risks of linear projection of sales tax revenue based on unsustainable car and truck sales) for individual and corporate tax can occur in the next biennium given that these figures are already slumping in the current period.
Dr. Morbius
It seems that the GOP legislators are more afraid of their own party bosses than they are of their constituents.
ReplyDeleteCertainly, there's something to fear in the fate of Mike Ellis and Dale Schultz with the way their own party came after them.
But what do we have to do to make them listen? Plaster their districts with homemade signs about their treachery? Start a recall? Take turns making daily contact? Promise to immunize them against attacks from their own party?
Remind them there will be consequences to pay the next time they run for re-election.
ReplyDeleteThis has been the problem, though. There haven't been enough consequences for these people, either electorally, or criminally. So they'll do it until it isn't worth it for them to do so.
DeleteWhich is why you have to keep the pressure up, and turn it up hotter. Maybe hitting their financial contributors is a way to go, to make them feel consequences for using profits to buy politicans. Counting on better angels is not likely to be enough.