While there were a number of figures in a recent ABC poll on Biden vs Trump that didn't make an ounce of sense to me or anyone else in the above-ground world, this might be the topper.
Ummm, what? Seriously?
Yes, COVID's shutdowns definitely had an effect, both in Trump's overall (negative) numbers, and in the rapid recovery under Biden. But that doesn't explain how 2 years later, we're still gaining jobs at a notably higher rate than at any pre-COVID time under Trump.
But what about overall economic growth? How does that measure up? Well, let's compare the first 3 years of Trump's term in office (before COVID sunk in as an effect) and then take out the huge recovery in the 1st quarter of 2021, and look at Biden's record in the 2 years since then.
We do that, adjust for inflation, and real GDP growth is basically the same between the 2 presidents for their first 2 years, although Biden's had a faster year 1 and an inflation-related slowdown in the first half of 2022. And in order for Biden to match Trump over 3 years, we need around 2% total growth (or about 2.7% annual rate) for the rest of 2023.
But jobs and GDP don't tell the full story. What about incomes? We're going to throw out the COVID-era stimulus checks and expanded unemployment that raised incomes in 2020 and early 2021, and just look at disposable income changes over the other time periods.
That might be a lot of it. You can see how inflation bit a lot of Americans in 2021 and the first half of 2022. But you also see that since inflation peaked in the middle of last year, incomes have been gaining again. And in the wider picture, Americans have inflation-adjusted disposable incomes more than $1,000 above their pre-COVID levels.
And total aggregate income doesn't tell the story either. The Economic Policy Institute notes that the lowest wage earners had the highest (percentage) increase in real wages when you compare the last pre-COVID year with the "new normal" that we likely got to in 2022.
Given the $18.50 an hour starting wages that I was seeing advertised at fast food places in Madison, that trend at the low end doesn't seem to be slowing down any time soon. But the relative lack of growth in the middle 60% is likely why some feel more vulnerable.
However, I suspect a lot of why some people might (wrongly) think that the economy was better under Trump is due to INFLATION WATCH and DEBT LIMIT and other GOP talking points that our media blindly runs with without context. Or without mentioning that Biden has done a great job pulling us through the COVID-induced disruptions in the economy, and given boosts to the lower-income Americans whose interests aren't often discussed by financial media.
And unless the Fed and GOP saboteurs screw over a historically strong economy in the next few months, the gap between the Biden years and Trump years should grow, and become more obvious to the 2/3 of us who don't live in a MAGA-fied Bubble of BS. But it might help if Biden and other DC Dems stop playing the GOP's game, keep paying the bills, and ignore the artificial debt ceiling that is making lower-knowledge people nervous that the good times are going to come to a crashing end.
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