The maps are in, and they're definitely fairer. But some more than others

I've finally gotten back to a bit of normality, and wanted to give some info on the redistricting maps that were submitted on Friday.

Marquette Professor John Johnson has done a breakdown of the 7 maps submitted to the Wisconsin Supreme Court, which will then be anlayzed and possibly modified by 2 PoliSci professors, and then sent ahead to the full Court for their ultimate decision on what maps will be in effect this November.

Then Dan Shafer had links sent up to the maps themselves in his Recombobulation Area website, along with breakdowns from the commentators in that article, and that gives us a chance to look at these maps for both shapes and results.

I'm going to go in order of the list, outside of whatever pile of junk was thrown in by the legislative GOP. And only print up the Senate maps for brevity, although I will look at the Assembly for scoring.

First, here is Governor Evers' Senate map.

Now, here is the map from the Law Forward group that filed suit to get the maps overturned.

Here is Professor Petering's map, drawn with a computer program to make things as 50-50 as possible.

Now the map that Senate Dems want in place the next time they can run.

Now here's the "charity work" from the Bradley Boys at WILL.

And the last submission to SCOWIS is a group of mathematcians that also threw in their maps.

For the hell of it, I'll also include my attempt at a compact 50-50 map for the state.

Maruqette Professor Johnson's scoring of Dem vs GOP advantage is based on a series of state elections from 2012-2022. I think that is too wide a time period to look at, given that the Trump era has realigned a lot of voting patterns in the state (in general, rural areas have become more GOP-leaning, suburbs and college towns have become more Democratic, and dark blue Dane County has become more populated overall).

So let's see what we get, using Governor Evers' 3.5% win in 2022 as a base.

WIS SENATE MAPS
Evers map 18-15 Dem, Tipping point GOP +0.1%
Law Forward 18-15 Dem, Tipping point GOP 1.7%
Petering 18-15 Dem, Tipping point Dem +1.6%
Senate Dems 17-16 Dem, Tipping point Dem +0.1%
WILL map 18-15 GOP, Tipping point GOP +9.4%
Mathematicians 18-15 Dem, Tipping point, Dem +1.6
My 50-50 map 18-15 GOP, Tipping point GOP +4.0%

You can see where in all but the Bradleys' maps, an election like 2022's would lead to a close call as to who would control the State Senate, and most of these maps have several competitive seats between 47% and 53% for both parties. Heck, mine are the 2nd nicest to the Republicans!

I'll dig into the Assembly maps in the near future, but feel free to slice and dice as you want.