Trump/Tiffany FEMA help falls short, and state/locals pick up the difference

You may recall this from a couple of weeks ago.

When severe weather hit Wisconsin, I called the White House to help secure the federal support our state needs.

Thank you to President Trump and his administration for their partnership. We’ll keep working to ensure every Wisconsin community has the resources needed to recover. pic.twitter.com/KxJiTMnBhl

— Tom Tiffany (@TomTiffanyWI) June 30, 2026

Naturally, Trump and Tiffany left out that it was Tony Evers' Administration that gathered the information on the damage estimates and sent it on to FEMA. And now in typical Trump/GOP fashion, the reality of what this aid ends up being is short of what the social media posts claimed.

Sure, FEMA allowed for home and property owners to recover damages from the severe weather, and while that money will assist in paying for infrastructure and other public improvements in some of the affected areas, but others were left out.

The June 30, 2026, major disaster declaration FEMA-4923-DR authorized Individual Assistance for Bayfield, Brown, Buffalo, Jackson, Jefferson, Juneau, Kenosha, Manitowoc, Marathon, Milwaukee, Outagamie, Racine, Rock, Sauk, Vernon, Washington, Waukesha, Waupaca, and Winnebago Counties and the Oneida Nation and Public Assistance for Iowa, Jackson, Jefferson, Juneau, Kewaunee, Outagamie, Rock, Vernon, and Waupaca Counties and the Oneida Nation.

The impact to individuals and households and the infrastructure was significant in the areas designated for Individual Assistance and Public Assistance. However, based on the results of the joint, federal, state, and local government Preliminary Damage Assessments, it has been determined that the impact to the infrastructure in Bayfield, Manitowoc, Marathon, and Racine Counties is not of the severity and magnitude to warrant their designation for Public Assistance under FEMA-4923- DR. In addition, it has been determined that your request for the Hazard Mitigation Grant Program is not warranted. Therefore, your request for Public Assistance for Bayfield, Manitowoc, Marathon, and Racine Counties and Hazard Mitigation statewide is denied.

Evers says he will appeal that denial of public assistance, and while local GOP Assembly members expressed disappointment, I have yet to hear a word about this from the guy who wants to replace Evers as Governor, Congressman Tom Tiffany. That’s despite Marathon and Bayfield counties being in Tiffany’s district, in a job he is still pulling 6 figures and benefits for.

And in a matter of interesting timing, the Wisconsin Policy Forum released a report this week on disaster aids and payments in Wisconsin. First of all, the Policy Forum notes that while there is a minimum amount of damage that does have to be met for FEMA aid, there is also no requirement to give aid no matter how much damage happens.

There is no specific dollar threshold that must be cleared to guarantee a major disaster declaration. Instead, disaster recovery must be “beyond the combined capabilities of state and local governments to respond.” There are damage rates per capita that define the minimum thresholds for eligibility. For Wisconsin as a whole, the 2025 threshold was $11.4 million in damage to public property, while for Milwaukee County the minimum was $4.5 million. These are eligibility minimums, but federal law gives broad discretion over these requests to the president, who can decide which parts to approve. Once approved, these declarations make direct aid available to local individuals and governments.

The previous disaster declaration prior to this week was for the storms and record flooding in August, where the Trump Administration allowed aid for individuals in three counties in the Milwaukee metro area, similar to the individual assistance given out from the April floods. The Policy Forum says this has resulted in a large amount of help being sent over to southeastern Wisconsin.

According to FEMA data, nearly 46,000 residents of Waukesha, Washington, and Milwaukee counties applied for individual assistance from FEMA following the August 2025 floods. Milwaukee County residents accounted for over 91% of those requests. As of June 2026, more than $210 million in aid had been distributed to 36,800 eligible applicants across the three counties. Figure 3 shows that property damage was concentrated on Milwaukee’s northwest side.

B But there was nothing given out by the Trump Administration for streets and lands that may have washed away in those record rains of August, or to deal with tree removal or many of the other public needs that resulted from that severe weather event. This led to an additional $16.9 million in state funds being requested by the Evers Administration and approved by the Joint Finance Committee in May, for the amount of weather-related damage claims that had happened in the 2026 Fiscal Year.

However, there is only $3 million in state funds available for disaster assistance in the 2027 Fiscal Year, which started 2 weeks ago. And now there are at least four counties that need additional help to clean up from the tornadoes, floods and severe storms from this April. We also know that there were tornadoes and hurricane-level winds on the 3rd of July that killed 3 children in Lake Geneva due to a capsizing boat, and caused damage and destruction to numerous buildings in the southeastern corner of the state.

Evers has yet to send in a request for disaster aid from that set of storms, and while today’s historically bad air quality doesn’t do a lot of damage to buildings or infrastructure, it will limit a lot of activities around the state for the next couple of days, and does remind us that even weather in other parts of the world can have its effects on our economy. Which is also something that Trump and Tiffany do not especially seem interested in dealing with, and often outright deny is going on.

With property values and the costs of construction and repair continuing to go up, these weather disasters are likely to continue to cost more. That's not even accounting for the increase in intensity and frequency for these types of things (for example, Wisconsin has already had 2 of its top 6 years for tornadoes in 2025 and 2026). Which means that when the Trump Administration refuses to give full assistance to states like Wisconsin, it's the state and local governments that have to pay more. And that's not something Tom Tiffany wants voters to know, but it needs to be said.

No surprise that CPI fell in June, but PPI as well? Now that's interesting

We figured consumer inflation would show prices going down overall in June, due to a significant decline at the pump. But I don’t think we thought it would be this much.

The Consumer Price Index, released Tuesday, showed inflation declined 0.4% on a monthly basis in June, the largest single-month decline since April 2020. Annual inflation also eased to 3.5%, the government said, in the lowest yearly reading since March.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had expected inflation to fall just 0.1% from May and rise 3.8% from a year ago, a moderation from May's bruising report as gas prices eased thanks to a now-disintegrating ceasefire in the war with Iran.

Indeed, the index for energy prices tumbled 5.7% in June, while the gasoline index fell 9.7%, though both remain much hotter than a year ago. Food prices, meanwhile, ticked up 0.2%, with lettuce and fish costs driving higher.

"The renewed war in Iran will almost certainly push inflation back up. Relief could be short-lived. But this should give the Federal Reserve some time to see wait and see for awhile," Heather Long, chief economist at the Navy Federal Credit Union, posted on X.

On a "core" basis, stripping out volatile energy and food categories, price growth slid to 2.6% on an annual basis, and was flat for the month. Economists had seen inflation rising 0.2% from May and 2.8% from last year.

That core number will especially buy the Fed some time, since Fed Governor Christopher Waller indicated earlier in the week that stat would be a bigger guide into where things stood than the overall CPI number for June. And that flat reading meant that core inflation followed the overall CPI in having its rate go down vs May.

Digging into the CPI report, we see the moderating and declines in prices were in many areas.

The index for all items less food and energy was unchanged in June after rising 0.2 percent in May. The shelter index increased 0.1 percent over the month, the smallest 1-month change reported for that index since January 2021. The index for owners’ equivalent rent rose 0.2 percent in June, and the index for rent increased 0.1 percent. The lodging away from home index fell 2.3 percent over the month.

The motor vehicle insurance index declined 2.0 percent in June after falling 1.7 percent in May. The index for communication fell 1.5 percent over the month, and the index for apparel declined 0.6 percent. The used cars and trucks index fell 0.2 percent in June.

That was the surprising part, given that May’s core Producer Price Index rose by 0.8%. So are the businesses taking lower profits at this point? Or have those higher producer prices not made their way through, and July will see a return to the inflationary cycle?

Then the PPI report came out on Wednesday. We knew that gasoline fell significantly in June and that would show in the overall PPI number, but apparently the cost of other goods also were going down?

Final demand goods: The index for final demand goods moved down 1.4 percent in June, the largest decrease since falling 1.9 percent in July 2022. Leading the decline in June, prices for final demand energy dropped 6.4 percent. The index for final demand foods moved down 0.6 percent. Conversely, prices for final demand goods less foods and energy increased 0.2 percent.

Product detail: Nearly two-thirds of the June decline in the index for final demand goods can be traced to prices for gasoline, which dropped 12.0 percent. The indexes for diesel fuel, jet fuel, fresh vegetables (except potatoes), crude petroleum, and thermoplastic resins and materials also fell. In contrast, prices for plastic products advanced 1.6 percent. The indexes for residential electric power and for potatoes also increased.

The drop in wholesale food prices got extra attention from me – that’s not something we had seen recently, as the PPI for foods had gone up in 0.2% and 0.5% in April and May respectively. And as hinted above, there was a wide range of foods that had their prices fall at the wholesale level last month.

Change in PPI, June 2026
Grains -12.0%
Oilseeds -7.8%
Fresh/dry vegetables -6.0%
Fresh fruits/melons -2.2%
Processed chickens -2.2%
Processed turkeys -2.1%
Pork -1.9%
Eggs -1.7%
Beef/veal -1.5%

So we should see some relief in grocery prices for July and likely August. And if we don’t, we probably should be suspicious as to why not.

Intermediate producer prices also went down in June (-1.2%), their first decline since October, and a reversal from what we’d seen, as those had gone up by a total of 8.6% over the previous 3 months. It’s weird to me how those sizable intermediate increases from March through May didn’t translate into an increase in overall PPI in the final products for June, and I wonder who ends up losing as a result. Did we just have an odd blip before inflation comes back in July, especially with oil back up toward $80 a barrel? Or are there businesses that are losing out and will see their profits be severely reduced because they can’t pass on the higher costs from this Spring to their customers? I don't see a third option out there.

SThe declining prices of June will buy time for the Federal Reserve to figure out what things look like for the second half of 2026, so don’t count on any moves when the Fed meets on interest rates in 2 weeks. But June’s declines for both CPI and PPI leave me more confused than I was before this week, as this regression from the high inflation of the previous part of 2026 seems too good to be true (maybe literally?).

INFLATION WATCH - it'll be down for June, but likely not for July

Tomorrow, we are likely to find out that not only did we not have inflation for June, but we may well have had deflation!

The cost of living is all but certain to decline in June for the first time since the pandemic six years ago — entirely due to a sharp drop in gasoline prices. The cost of a regular gallon of gas tumbled 15% from mid-May to the end of June.

Economists predict the U.S. consumer-price index fell by 0.2% in June. The critical report for Wall Street will be released Tuesday morning.

The yearly rate of inflation should follow suit, slowing to 3.8%, from 4.2% in May. The May rate was the highest since April 2023.

So nothing but smooth sailing from here in! Prices should fall back, with no need to raise interest rates, because the war in Iran is done, and it only cost us 4 months of higher gas prices and...

Wait, what's that you're telling me?

The U.S. military said it carried out more strikes on Iran on Monday, hours after President Trump announced he would reimpose a blockade against the country and start charging tolls for other countries' ships to pass the Strait of Hormuz....

Earlier, Trump said the United States would not allow Iranian ships to move through the Strait of Hormuz. "We are reinstating THE IRANIAN BLOCKADE, so named because it is only stopping Iran's ships or customers from entering or leaving," he said in a post online.

CENTCOM said the blockade would begin on Tuesday at 4 p.m. ET. The U.S. military last worked to block maritime traffic to and from Iranian ports from April 13 to June 18.

OH COME ON! This is also why I filled up the car today.

As oil was spiking by more than $5 a barrel today, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller was telling New York business leaders that inflation is definitely back in 2026

"We're building off of basically almost, you know, five to six months of 'higher, higher, higher, higher,' on inflation readings," Waller said. "If I get another higher one, I'm going to treat that as signal, not noise.".

Waller went on to say that inflation was widespread in several areas of the economy, beyond the gas price increases in the first half of this year.

In particular, he said he is worried that recent inflation reports have shown price pressures seeming to broaden throughout the economy, beyond the influence of ‌last year's import tariff increases or the recent jump in energy costs ⁠and potentially reflecting more systemic inflation that would require tighter monetary policy. Of the categories in core services, which account for 75% of core prices, nearly 70% have 3-month and 12-month inflation over 3%, he said.

While the situation is not comparable to the breakout of price increases that followed the COVID-19 pandemic, with the labor market not as tight, ⁠for example, Waller said the Fed has the benefit of anchored inflation expectations — an advantage the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee should not squander by waiting too long to raise rates if inflation persists.

"I don't take the inflationary signals I have discussed today lightly. If we get another hot reading on core inflation this week, then the FOMC will need to consider tightening monetary policy in the near term," Waller said. He added that it would take "several months of lower readings to feel that inflation is finally moving in the right direction."

And that's why you should ignore what is likely to be an overall drop in inflation that's likely to be reported tomorrow morning. Because it'll be because of a one-month drop for gas prices that are likely to bounce back up in July and August. Look to the core rate beyond food and energy to see if that stays in the +0.2% to +0.4% it was in for the first 5 months of this year. Christopher Waller and the rest of the Fed certainly will.

And then watch out for the Producer Price Index report which will drop on Wednesday. Those prices paid by businesses went up by 1.1% in both April and May, and were up 3.5% in the step before final production, indicating that the increase may be even higher for June. If that comes in hot, we are likely heading toward a rate hike some time in the next 2 months, and boy will the Trump/GOPs, coked-up hedge bros and debt-needy AI types hate that!

Medicaid budget deficit is all the more reason it needs to be expanded in Wisconsin

I'd mentioned earlier that the state of Wisconsin was seeing its Medicaid expenses were running higher than expected. Last week, the Legislative Fiscal Bureau sent a note further explaining why the shortfall in Medicaid was happening, and what could be done about it.

First, the LFB mentioned the good news that Wisconsin’s attempt to grab more federal Medicaid dollars for hospital services has been okayed.

In a January 15, 2026, memorandum to you on the 2025-27 biennium general fund condition, it was noted that there was a possibility that the Act 15 [2025-27 state budget] hospital assessment and hospital access payment provisions would not be approved. This was based on preliminary guidance issued by the federal Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) regarding states' use of provider assessments in their Medicaid programs, which suggested that the Act 15 increase may not be granted grandfather status, and thus be could be disallowed under the federal One Big Beautiful Bill Act. Because Act 15 assumed that a portion of the assessment revenues would be used to offset GPR expenditures for the Medical Assistance (MA) program, a decision to not grant grandfather status would result in a GPR budget shortfall for the program of nearly $800 million over the biennium. However, CMS has now approved the Act 15 change, and on June 29, 2026, the Department of Health Services (DHS) published a notice in the Wisconsin Administrative Register indicating that the Act 15 assessment and related hospital access payment provisions are in effect.

You may remember these increased assessments and payments to hospitals were the reason that Governor Evers and the Wisconsin Legislature had to work through the night to get the state budget signed before GOPs in DC were able to formally pass Trump Tax Scam 2.0 into law. That situation also included the absurd series of events where Congressman Derrick Van Orden was telling Evers and the Legislature to increase the hospital assessment ASAP…. because Van Orden was going to vote for the GOP Tax Scam that would prevent them from raising it in the future!

But even though the hospital assessment is OK for RFK, Dr.Oz and company, the LFB says that there are hundreds of millions of dollars that have to be made up in the program.

Although the Act 15 hospital assessments received federal approval, DHS currently projects that the program will have a $322.4 million GPR budget shortfall for the 2025-27 biennium, due to factors unrelated to the Act 15 hospital provisions. Except for the number of enrollees in the elderly category, which are now projected to be modestly higher than budget estimates, enrollment in other groups is trending lower than projected. Consequently, the projected deficit is primarily the result of higher expenditures in certain service categories, despite the lower enrollment. In particular, the program is experiencing higher costs for prescription drugs, nursing homes, and federally qualified clinic services, among others. The following table shows the major service categories for which expenditures are projected to be above or below budget estimates. In addition to the dollar variance, the table also shows the percentage difference. Since only the service categories that show a substantial dollar variance from budget estimates are shown, the amounts in the table do not sum to the total projected shortfall.

The LFB goes on to note that because Medicaid expenses have to be paid for if someone qualifies for coverage of thosae services, there is likely to be a need for the new Governor and Legislature to have to figure out how to fill this budget hole when they take office next January.

….The Department [of Health Services] may have some ability to modify or delay healthcare provider or managed care payments in order to address the shortfall, although these measures would have negative consequences that would also need to be considered. Even if the Department does reduce the imbalance through payment changes, these measures may not be sufficient to fully resolve the shortfall, and budget adjustment legislation may need to be considered prior to the end of the biennium.

Given that Wisconsin is projected to have over $2 billion carried over into this next budget, it may be as easy as designating some of those funds to pay for the higher Medicaid expenses for the 2025-27 biennium. But it also shows that there may be a lot more funds needed to pay for Wisconsin’s health care services in the next 2 years, and unless Medicaid is expanded (which would cut over $1 billion in each of the next two years), it could cut into any chances of further tax cuts or property tax relief as well as investments into roads and education.

Of course, you know what could take care of all of this? Being one of the last 10 states in America to expand Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act, as Governor Evers has asked for in each of the last 4 budgets, and the GOP Legislature has refused to do. This would have the Feds take up almost 30% more of everyday Medicaid expenses than they do today, instead of having the State of Wisconsin pay for it, and when the Evers Administration asked the Legislature to allow Medicaid to cover Wisconsinites that make between 100% and 138% of the poverty line (between $33,000 and $45,540 for a family of 4 in 2026), they estimated over $1.9 billion in state tax dollars would be saved by doing so.

This amount of savings will likely be even larger today, given the increase in health care costs for services of people that currently use Medicaid for services.

In addition, Medicaid expansion would be a sizable benefit for those living just above the poverty line in Wisconsin. Trump/GOP Tax Scam 2.0 drove up the costs of being covered by policies purchased on the Obamacare exchanges - which is often how these folks end up getting insured because Medicaid hasn't been expanded, if they have any coverage at all these days.

Companies offering Obamacare health insurance plans next year are requesting payment rates representing a 14% median increase to premiums ​over 2026 rates, according to data from health policy research group KFF.

The proposed ‌rate for 2027 represents the second-highest increase since 2018, KFF said. Insurers must submit proposals to regulators by July 15, detailing expected costs and planned price changes ahead of the new year.

When insurance companies asked for a median rate hike of 18% last year, they pointed to an expected greater number of higher-risk, or sicker, patients enrolled in the plans ⁠that would not be offset by less costly, healthier enrollees....

Insurers expect the pool of patients with greater medical needs to increase premiums by 4% next year as healthy members continue to drop coverage in 2027. Wider economic inflation, rising costs of medications and increased consolidation of medical providers are also driving the increase in premiums, KFF said.

Obamacare enrollment declined 13% ‌in ⁠2026, from 22.1 million people in 2025, after the expiration of extra subsidies meant to help people keep coverage during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Seems like expanding Medicaid would both fill in the budget hole we have in Medicaid, and make health care more affordable not only for the hundreds of thousands of Wisconsinites that rely on Obamacare for coverage, as well as the many others who have seen their health care costs go up in the last year. I wqould think all WisDems should be running hard on this fact for November, as those health insurance hikes are going to be getting sent to a whole lot of voters in the weeks before they go to the polls this Fall. And there is no longer a GOP gerrymander in place to block Dems from taking over the Legislature and making this into reality.

And given that Tom Tiffany was a part of the group of GOP legislators that refused to expand Medicaid in Evers' first budget in 2019, and then moved onto Congress, where he signed onto the cuts in Obamacare subsidies that are driving up the costs of insurance for so many Wisconinites today. He has earned a hammering for this, and he should be allowed nowhere to hide from it.

Federal budget through June shows deficits, interest costs rising

The Congressional Budget Office gave an update on what the US budget looked like through June. And on the revenue side, there was less than what we had in June 2025. But it was for a one-time payback of an earlier move that boosted revenues.

CBO estimates that receipts in June 2026 totaled $495 billion—$32 billion (or 6 percent) less than the amount recorded last June. That decrease was driven by a sharp decline in net collections of customs duties because of tariff refunds required by the Supreme Court’s February ruling. In June 2026, refunds of customs duties ($50 billion) exceeded gross collections ($24 billion), producing a net outflow of $26 billion—$52 billion below the $27 billion collected last June.

As you will see, tariff revenue has turned negative in the last 2 months, on the heels of a Supreme Court ruling in February that the Trump Administration illegally imposed some duties. This led to a total of $50 billion in refunds being sent to US businesses and individuals in June following $20 billion in refunds for May.

Take away the tariff refunds, and tax revenues were up year-over-year.

Collections of income and payroll taxes rose by $18 billion (or 4 percent), reflecting higher wages and salaries and partially offsetting the decrease in customs duties. (The Treasury reallocated $13 billion from payroll taxes to individual income taxes in June to account for newly available tax information from prior years. That reallocation does not affect the combined increase for the two sources.) In addition, corporate income taxes rose by $2 billion (or 3 percent).

But let's not think that Trump Tax Scam 2.0 is paying for itself with economic growth, because most of the tax benefits came with this year's refunds this Spring. That's especially for corporations, who are paying much less in taxes in Fiscal Year 2026.

Receipts from corporate income taxes [have] decreased by $86 billion (or 24 percent) [compared to Fiscal Year 2025 through June]. The enactment of the 2025 reconciliation act allowed corporations to take larger deductions for certain investments, thereby reducing some payments and offsetting the increases in those receipts that otherwise would have been expected, given the rise in corporate income.

On the spending side, Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid is accounting for 46.2% of overall Federal spending, at $2.55 billion of the $5.52 billion spent so far in Fiscal Year 2026.

Those 3 programs account for $169 billion of the $178 billion in increased spending for FY 2026, which also means that the rest of federal spending hasn't gone up at all for those 9 months.

A big reason that other government spending hasn’t gone up with 2026’s inflation is due to a reduction in the amount of student loans that came from Tax Scam 2.0.

Outlays of the Department of Education decreased by $55 billion (or 55 percent), largely because the department recorded a net reduction of about $53 billion in the estimated costs of outstanding student loans. No annual reestimate of outstanding loans was recorded during the first nine months of fiscal year 2025. In addition, spending from the Education Stabilization Fund declined by $12 billion (or 89 percent). The total decline in education spending would have been larger if not for $11 billion in outlays stemming from the recording of the estimated costs of two administrative actions announced in 2026: one delaying collections on delinquent student loans ($4 billion) and the other providing a discount to borrowers who elect to have automatic monthly payments made from their bank accounts ($7 billion).

And another reason for limited expenditures is related to the Trump Administration picking and choosing which (red) areas get FEMA aid while denying other (blue) areas.

Spending by the Department of Homeland Security decreased by $13 billion (or 15 percent) mainly because the Federal Emergency Management Agency spent more in disaster response during the same period last fiscal year. Increased spending for immigration enforcement and border security this year offset some of that reduction.

At the same time, “on the books” military spending is up $30 billion so far in Fiscal Year 2026, and interest on our national debt is up $98 billion. Don’t expect either to be slowing down any time soon with Trump/GOPs in power.

It's not surprising that budget deficits keep climbing in 2026, but it does seem like the combination of higher prices and rising red ink for Uncle Sam sunk in a bit more in the last week, as interest rates on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury Bond has had a noticeable rebound in July.

Doesn't seem like a healthy situation to continue in, and the continued cutbacks in non-defense and non-entitlement spending can't be something that'll help consumer spending as we look at the second half of 2026. The higher interest rates aren't going to help all those AI firms that are strung out on debt, nor will it encourage the venture capital types to keep pumping their hopium dollars into these businesses. But because the economy allegedly keeps growing and job losses aren't rampant, it doesn't feel like an emergency today. Where this breaks and how it changes as a result is where the real interesting stuff will begin.

Services economy still growing for June, but so were prices.

It seems like the overall US economy was OK as the first half of 2026 ended. The Institute for Supply Management says that services were growing at a decent clip in June, with new orders still being added, and even employment was reported to be up after 3 months of declines.

“Economic activity in the services sector continued to expand in June, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the latest ISM® Services PMI® Report. The Services PMI® registered 54 percent, the 24th consecutive month in expansion territory.

The report was issued today by Steve Miller, CPSM, CSCP, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Services Business Survey Committee: In June, the Services PMI® registered 54 percent, a decrease of 0.5 percentage point compared to May’s figure of 54.5 percent. The Business Activity Index remained in expansion territory in June, decreasing 2.3 percentage points to 55.4 percent from May’s reading of 57.7 percent. The New Orders Index registered 55.1 percent, 2.2 percentage points below May’s figure of 57.3 percent. The Employment Index expanded for the first time in four months with a reading of 51.2 percent, a 3.3-percentage point increase from the 47.9 percent recorded in May. All of the four subindexes that make up the composite PMI® were above their 12-month moving averages,” says Miller.

“The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 54.4 percent, 0.8 percentage point lower than the 55.2 percent recorded in May. This is the 19th consecutive month that the index has been in expansion territory, indicating slower supplier delivery performance. (Supplier Deliveries is the only ISM® PMI® Reports index that is inversed; a reading of above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries, which is typical as the economy improves and customer demand increases.)

But check out this segment of the ISM report, where they ask the managers about what’s happening with prices in these industries.

And I noticed this comment from someone in Accomodation and Food Services.

“We continue to experience higher prices due to the Persian Gulf conflict through rising diesel fuel costs and increased input costs for resin-based packaging. The brunt of the impact will be experienced in the third quarter (Q3) of 2026, but we are feeling the impact now. Suppliers are aggressively attempting to pass through price increases.”

Then there’s this comment from someone in Wholesale Tade.

“We are experiencing continued sequential top-line growth driven mostly by increased prices.”

Which means they’ve been able to pass higher prices onto the stores, and the stores are likely passing it on to their customers.

So don’t count on consumers getting a price break on anything beyond what we’ve seen at the pump in the last month – and even with the recent declines, we’re still paying 20% more for regular gasoline than we were this time last year. And since we aren’t seeing major job cutbacks with the higher prices, there is no reason for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates any time soon – if anything, they should be raising them.

Oh, and now Trump says war is back ON in Iran, oil futures are up 9% in the last 2 days and and probably headed higher than that. So don't expect inflation to be coming down any time soon, and in an honest world, rate hikes from the Fed are seeming more likely than not for this year.

That doesn't seem like a winning situation at all for the second half of 2026, does it?

Oil and gas prices falling in the last month. But it doesn't add up as to why.

Good news from this week, everybody! There should be more oil coming onto the market from overseas soon.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies including Russia agreed on Sunday to further increase output targets by 188,000 barrels per day from August, on top of similar increases ​for ​June and July.

However, the increase has remained largely on paper ​because of the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, ‌which closed the strait to tanker traffic for key OPEC producers, including Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Iraq, capping their output….

Gulf oil exports in June jumped more than 3 million barrels from May to exceed 10 million barrels per day, although volume remained ‌40% below pre-war levels, data showed.

"We now expect global oil ​demand to contract by 1.5 million barrels per day in 2026, ​reflecting a sharper-than-expected downturn in Q2, when ​year-on-year declines could reach 4 million bpd based on preliminary data," ANZ said.

"However, we ‌expect demand losses to moderate in the second ​half of the year as ​supply improves and some deferred consumption returns," the bank added.

But that oil has yet to be refined and put on the gasoline market. So I am still confused as to why gas prices have been falling back much faster than they did when it spiked up to $5 a gallon in 2022.

But even though gas prices are $1 a gallon less than it was 4 years ago, according to the US Energy Information Administration, gasoline is less plentiful now in America than it was in 2022.

And sure, we’re pumping out more oil than we were at this time four years ago, but it’s not all that much more than what US oil field production was by early 2024, and is less than a million barrels a day more than what we were pumping pre-COVID

And worse is that the nation’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) is the lowest it has been in 43 years, with the SPR consistently going down by 6 to 7 million barrels a week for the last 4 months.

So with less supply of oil and gasoline around, why had pump prices and oil futures dropped so much by the 4th of July? It’s not based on actual supply and demand, at least not yet.

Something is off here, and it feels like some other shoe is going to drop sooner than later. Maybe this results in a massive glut coming onto the market and depressing prices, or as 24/7 Wall Street brings up, maybe oil gets taken off the market in order to re-fill the SPR, which would leave oil/gas higher as they otherwise would have been.

Then again, maybe that whole "more oil coming out of the Middle East" optimism of the last month gets reversed due to events.

WASHINGTON (AP) — US military says it's launching strikes on Iran following Tehran's attacks on commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz. @apnews.com

— Carl Quintanilla (@carlquintanilla.bsky.social) July 7, 2026 at 4:33 PM

And the oil markets acted accordingly.

Oil prices jumped to their highest level since June 25 on Tuesday after the U.S. revoked a temporary sanctions waiver that had allowed the sale of Iranian oil on the global market.

The Trump administration took the action after unknown projectiles hit multiple tankers near the Strait of Hormuz.

In late afternoon trading, U.S. crude oil rose more than 5%, to more than $72 per barrel. International Brent crude oil also rose 5.3%, to more than $75 per barrel.

Here we go again?

A few 250th birthday thoughts

What are we celebrating today? It's the release of these words, and the Declaration that we were going to break away from the crazy overlord of our land.

From UW-Madison Political Science professor Barry Burden.

He has refused his Assent to Laws, the most wholesome and necessary for the public good.

— Barry Burden (@bcburden.bsky.social) July 4, 2026 at 8:32 AM

He has obstructed the Administration of Justice, by refusing his Assent to Laws for establishing Judiciary powers.

— Barry Burden (@bcburden.bsky.social) July 4, 2026 at 8:32 AM

He has endeavoured to prevent the population of these States; for that purpose obstructing the Laws for Naturalization of Foreigners; refusing to pass others to encourage their migrations hither, and raising the conditions of new Appropriations of Lands.

— Barry Burden (@bcburden.bsky.social) July 4, 2026 at 8:32 AM

He has erected a multitude of New Offices, and sent hither swarms of Officers to harrass our people, and eat out their substance.

— Barry Burden (@bcburden.bsky.social) July 4, 2026 at 8:32 AM

A Prince, whose character is thus marked by every act which may define a Tyrant, is unfit to be the ruler of a free people.

— Barry Burden (@bcburden.bsky.social) July 4, 2026 at 8:32 AM

And yet we have to take it in 2026, more than 1776, because the people who are imposing these bad things aren't mostly from thousands of miles away, but instead live inside our state and country borders (if not our communities) and inside the corporate board rooms that control much of the "information" that people consume.

We can do a lot better than this, and we are the majority that know we deserve much more than what we've had to accept for the last decade-plus. It's telling to me that local community celebrations in Summer 2026 are much better attended and come with a better vibe than the emotionallly stunted, pathetic stuff we are seeing in DC.

It's true, Axios. The biggest issue facing us is that Donald Trump is currently president and it's making everyone miserable

[image or embed]

— Subscribe to Radio Free America (link in bio) (@kleinman.bsky.social) July 4, 2026 at 9:47 AM

We need to clear the clouds that are hanging over this country. And sure, midterms 2026 are a big part of it to show the reversal in direction. But the screw-ups of the last decade are going to need a lot of time and work to clean up from. But it's gotta start from some point, and because of the money power on the other side, you gotta have to work harder than we should just to get it back to even.

But have fun in the middle of all this work, because the MAGAts also want us to be as miserable as they are. When we aren't fearful and aren't distracted by their small-ball idiocy, that means we're living better than them, no matter what their alleged status says.

As sad and scary as it is to see a terror organization march in the open, it’s also a parade of men who are doing this today instead of enjoying a hot dog and a cold beer with loved ones because they’re weird angry losers.

[image or embed]

— Amos Posner (@amosposner.bsky.social) July 4, 2026 at 11:39 AM

good morning, it is the fourth of july and the worst people alive are currently running the country fuck them, we're going to win because this place can and will be better than they are

— Micah (@rincewind.run) July 4, 2026 at 11:05 AM

We ARE better than them, and we ARE the Real America. I can't stand it that my country and my state to be run by a bunch of failsons, big fish in small ponds, basement-dwelling dweebs, and people who peaked in high school and never evolved. That's not the America I want, and it's not one that is interesting or moving ahead.

And being in an interesting, more joyful, multi-cultural country with actual chances of getting ahead and adjusting to reality instead of being stuck in old traditions and tactics that haven't gotten the job done? That's my More Perfect Union.

June jobs slow down, fewer Americans working overall, and wage growth still lame

Starting in February, not only had we seen prices go up at the gas pump, but US job growth had also gone up, as the Bureau of Labor Statistics had previously reported increases of 214,000 jobs in March, 179,000 in April, and 172,000 in May. So before the 4th of July weekend, many looked at Thursday's jobs report to see if that winning streak would continue in June.

Not so much.

The U.S. economy added just 57,000 jobs in June, a worrying sign for labor market stability as wage growth tracked below inflation for a third consecutive month.

In June, average hourly earnings increased by 3.5%, which remains far below the most recent inflation reading of 4.2%....

The report also included sharp revisions lower for prior months. Hiring in April was cut by 31,000 and May was revised down by 43,000.

So we ended up having 17,000 fewer jobs than what was reported a month ago. And it brings the 3 month gains down from the 2-year highs they were at in May.

Some of this seems to be a seasonal reversion where May had sizable increases in some sectors that hired up for the Summer in that month to get ahead of an early Memorial Day weekend, and then June didn't have as much hiring, leading to seasonally-adjusted "losses".

Seasonally adj job change, US May and June 2026
Leisure and Hospitality
May +40,000
June -61,000

Retail Trade
May +8,200
June -7,500

The 2-month average for job growth between May and June is 93,000 jobs overall and 73,000 in the private sector, and that seems to be a good number to look at for July's report to see if we have true slowing in the job market, or if we are still growing at a decent rate.

For the household survey, the US unemployment dropped form 4.3% to 4.2%, but it wasn't for a good reason, as both the labor force (-720,000) and the number of employed Americans (-503,000) went down by significant amounts in the June report. Some of that may also be seasonal reversion, but the overall trend has been clearly negative for more than a year.

This means the country's Employment-Population Ratio (of the number of Americans actually working) is down to 59.0%, which is the lowest non-pandemic level in 12 years.

Not a great sign for overall growth, and wage growth also continues to stagnate, with average hourly wages only up 0.3% overall and an even-worse 0.2% for non-supervisory workers. While inflation may go down in June due to the lower gas prices, having annual wage growth over in the mid-3% range likely means another 12-month period of falling real wages between June 2025 and June 2026.

The June jobs report doesn't show a recession, but it is a noteworthy slowdown from the strong growth in the 3 months before it. And the lack of wage growth may look good for companoies' profit-loss statements, but it's lousy for everyday people who do actual work.

Tom Tiffany approves of Wisconsin paying more for Medicaid, FoodShare, with less people insured

Every three months, the Wisconisn Department of Health Services releases an update on the state's Medicaid budget situation. And this week, we found out that our state is on track to need hundreds of millions of dollars to pay for Medicaid by this time next year.

As indicated in my March quarterly letter, across the country, payors and providers are experiencing a shifting healthcare landscape with costs increasing overall. While states’ Medicaid programs vary significantly, programs are facing growing budgetary challenges with approximately two-thirds of states predicting a high likelihood of budget shortfalls in the near term. Ongoing uncertainty around federal policy implementation and unpredictable economic conditions in the medium-term are further compounding these budget challenges.

The June projection reflects a continuation of trends identified in the March letter. Wisconsin Medicaid members need and are accessing essential healthcare services at a higher rate than assumed in the biennial budget. Most notably, the program is experiencing higher utilization in Family Care and other community-based long-term care, nursing home services, services for children with disabilities, prescription drugs, and safety net providers such as federally qualified health centers (FQHCs).

The Department projects Medicaid expenditures will exceed budget by $322.4 million GPR by the end of the biennium, which is 3.3% above budgeted GPR levels under 2025 Act 15, the 2025-27 biennial budget.

In a related note, Trump/GOP's Tax Scam 2.0 caused millions of Americans to not enroll in Obamacare in 2026.

Five million fewer people are currently enrolled in ACA marketplace plans compared to the record high reached last year. More than 1 million fewer people picked a plan for 2026, and then 4 million more either disenrolled or failed to pay their premiums and therefore dropped coverage.

Prices in the market skyrocketed after President Trump and Republicans in Congress failed to extend extra financial help for enrollees last year. The Department of Health and Human Services published a report about the data on its website Friday....

The steep drop in enrollment reflects what insurers, administrators, and other health policy experts expected earlier this year. After initial sign ups were lower than last year, they predicted that the picture would get worse as time went on and people found they could not afford to pay their premiums.

"The main takeaway is that enrollment is down 13% from last year," explains Cynthia Cox, director of KFF's Program on the ACA. "While the Trump administration attributes this drop in enrollment to their attempts to address fraud, this coverage loss happened at the same time millions of people faced double or even triple digit increases in their premium payments with the expiration of enhanced tax credits."

Wisconsin also had a loss of enrollment in ACA insurance for this year, as the recently released effectuated enrollment numbers from the US Department of Health and Human Services shows. As defined by DHHS,

Enrollment in the Health Insurance Exchanges is considered effectuated if the enrollee paid their premium for the applicable month, if they have a non-zero dollar premium, or if the enrollee had a zero dollar premium. Enrollees are captured as effectuated in this dataset if they had an active policy and also paid their month’s premium, if applicable, at the time of the data retrieval.

And the number of Wisconsinites with actively funded premiums has plummeted by 17.6% since its peak in July, with the falloff being especially noticeable at the start of 2026, as premium subsidies were reduced under Trump/GOP Tax Scam 2.0.

But that's Obamacare enrollments in Wisconsin, so how does that affect Medicaid costs? Now that millions of Americans have found their Obamacare is unaffordable, they're more likely to be uninsured and use the emergency room as their doctor's office. And/or more people become likely to wait until they show more severe symptoms before getting treated in general, which also drives up costs, in addition to the lost productivity of work due to more severe illness.

And guess who signed off on Tax Scam 2.0, and who imposed these higher costs onto state taxpayers as a result of it?

Yep, it's Trumpy Tommy Tiffany. And I bet he's not promoting this part of the bill in his ads (come to think of it, he doesn't mention anything about his current job in Congress at all, does he?). Although he's probably going to claim that the working people that got screwed out of their health care by that Big Bunch of Bollocks were committing fraud anyway. It's easier to make up a story than to deal with reality, you know.

Tommy's Tax Scam 2.0 also drove up state costs in another way, because the Evers Administration had to ask the Legislature for $72.8 million earlier this year to hire and pay more of the salaries of workers for the state's food assistance program and make process improvements to avoid having to pay even more state tax dollars for Food Share. And we found out last week that this investment paid off for Wisconsin.

The rate at which Wisconsin distributes too much or too little food assistance is among the lowest in the nation, according to data released Wednesday by the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

According to the estimates measuring all states and U.S. territories, Wisconsin’s error rate for the last fiscal year was 5.72 percent. That’s just over half of the nationwide error rate of 10.62 percent.....

The USDA’s error rate measures both overpayments and underpayments of federal food assistance dollars, known nationally as the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, or SNAP, and in Wisconsin as FoodShare.

Under a provision of last summer’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act, states that exceed a 6 percent error rate will have to shoulder a share of the cost of the program. The size of that share increases as the error rate grows.

That comes as other changes to the program were implemented, including requiring states to take on more administrative costs, and imposing new work requirements on older people and on families with children above age 13. The federal law also requires regular paperwork to prove exemptions from such requirements for some groups, such as families with special needs children.

The damage and higher costs from the Big Bunch of Bollocks that became law a year ago Friday is just becoming apparent in the data. And it's likely to continue as the year goes on and even more expensive 2027 Obamacare premiums are likely to be announced in the next 3 months.

I would hope whoever wins the Democratic nomination for Governor in 40 days will remind Wisconsin voters that Tom Tiffany is a big reason behind the higher costs and lack of insurance that many state residents are dealing with. And there are nearly $400 million in extra costs that are projected to be needed for Wisconsin's FoodShare and Medicaid because Tom Tiffany decided that the superrich and corporate needed another tax giveaway instead of doing something that improved the lives of Wisconsinites with real jobs.