Monday, December 21, 2020

A few notes on the stimulus/survival bill

I took a look at the summary of the stimulus part's provisions, but I am NOT going to read the 5,600-page total bill (you can click here if you feel the motivation to check it out).

As unemployment claims continue to pile up and increase as Winter comes, the bill has a $300 a week enhancement would begin next week. But it is NOT retroactive, and would only go through March 14. That might get some people through the next 3 months, but as the Washington Post's economics writer notes, there will still likely be many people yet to vaccinated by that point, and many still out of work when that bonus runs out.

But at least millions of Americans won't be cut off, as the bill continues unemployment programs that were slated to end on Saturday.
Extends Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) to March 14, 2021 and allows individuals receiving benefits as of March 14, 2021 to continue through April 5, 2021, as long as the individual has not reached the maximum number of weeks.
•Increases the number of weeks of benefits an individual may claim from 39 to 50.
•Provides for appeals to be at the state level.
•Provides states authority to waive overpayments made without fault on the part of the individual or when such repayment would violate equity and good conscience.
•Provides a transition rule for certain individuals transitioning between PUA and the Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation program.
•Limits payment of retroactive PUA benefits to weeks of unemployment after December 1, 2020.
However, there's a provision about PUA that's likely to cause even more barriers to benefits for applicants, and paperwork for workers at the Wisconsin DWD. You're also likely aware of the $600 payments, which are per person (so $1,200 for a couple), and then another $600 for each "qualifying" child. Not exactly enough to pay the rent, and nothing compared to what we could be doing for people in need (and others), but I'm not going to turn it down.

But hey, unlike unemployment, at least you don't have to apply to get the checks! On the spending side, here's a good summary of the big toplines, and then I'll go into a few more. While there isn't a formal pot of money being given to state and local governments, the money for child care providers is a block grant, and the $25 billion in rental assistance is intended for state and local agencies. renters, and the CDC's eviction moratorium is extended to January 31.

On the education side, CARES programs that assist schools are going to continue, with about half of this $163 billion being in the form of "flexible funding" to governors and other non-federal officials to help schools cope with the COVID World, and the other half being set aside in specific programs for K-12 schools and higher education.

With hunger becoming an increasing concern, this stimulus gives $11 billion in additional farm supports, a bump of 15% in SNAP benefits through June 30, $400 million to pay dairy businesses to send products sent to food banks and other hunger programs (seems noteworthy to bring that up in Wisconsin) and more money for other smaller agriculture and nutrition programs.

As to aid to businesses, there's a provision that mirrors one that Gov Evers did at the state level in Wisconsin, targeting funds for entertainment businesses that have been especially hammered in the COVID World.
Authorizes $15 billion for the SBA to make grants to eligible live venue operators or promoters, theatrical producers, live performing arts organization operators, museum operators, motion picture theatre operators, or talent representatives who demonstrate a 25 percent reduction in revenues.
In addition to the transit aid, there's also $15 billion in extra aid for airline workers (which are passed through by the airlines), and $1 billion for airline contractors. It looks like the airline aid requires them to call back employees that had been furloughed and/or not laid off through the COVID-related slowdown in travel, and keep the same amount of service that they had before COVID drilled the industry.

But one hard-hit sector that isn't getting anything is bars and restaurants, who will now have to try to survive a COVID Winter without specific aid. Instead, those businesses and others will be pushed into applying for a second round of PPP funds. On a positive note, small businesses that already got PPP to be able to get another loan of up to $2 million if they lost 25% of business in 2020.

And there is also an expansion of what business owners can write off, including additional software, PPE to meet new regulations, supplier costs, and "property damage due to public disturbances that occurred during 2020 that are not covered by insurance" (which one of these is not like the other?). But that's only going to go so far, and will take a while to get out to the people that need the PPP help.

So at first glance, it at least is something in a time when tens of millions of Americans are still suffering. But the short time frame of many of the programs along with one-time checks of $600 aren't going to be enough to get us out to a post-COVID World. Which means more is going to be done in order to keep any growth going, or to stop us from falling (further?) into recession before Spring.

There's more to break down as we go along, but that's the main stuff that jumped out at me, and feel free to chew on plenty more as this 5600-page bill flies its way through Congress.
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