Nov jobs report gives more proof that things are still rough, and stalling out fast

In September and October, we were already seeing job growth leveling off from the large gains that happened in the Summer as portions of the economy reopened from COVID-related closures. But the November jobs report released today said that this slowdown was picking up speed.

Hiring slowed sharply. Hundreds of thousands of people gave up looking for work. The proportion of the unemployed who have been jobless for at least six months rose.

All told, the Labor Department said Friday, employers added 245,000 jobs in November — the fewest since April, the fifth straight monthly slowdown and well short of the gain economists had been expecting. Back in March and April when the virus slammed the economy, the United States lost a staggering 22 million jobs. It’s been clawing them back ever since — but at an ever-diminishing rate: 4.8 million added jobs in June, 1.8 million in July, 1.5 million in August, 711,000 in September, 610,000 in October and 245,000 in November.

We've grown kind of numb to the scope of job loss that still exists in this country, and we shouldn't. I want you to imagine what we'd be like in this country if we were losing 1 million jobs a month for the last 9 months - well above what we were losing during the Great Recession. Now, realize that if that scenario was happening, we'd still have 800,000 MORE jobs than we have today.

No, that's not good at all, and the leveling in the November report only goes through the 2nd week of that month (when the jobs survey took place). Since then, we've seen COVID infections increase and the weather get colder, a combination that is leading to business closures in several areas of the economy, both due to public safety measures, and a general drop in demand due to consumers not willing to take risks.

If you dig into the new jobs report, you can see where that combination hit some sectors that have already been ravaged in the COVID World.

In November, retail trade lost 35,000 jobs, reflecting less seasonal hiring in several retail industries. Employment decreases occurred in general merchandise stores (-21,000); sporting goods, hobby, book, and music stores (-12,000); electronics and appliance stores (-11,000); and health and personal care stores (-8,000). By contrast, furniture and home furnishings stores and automobile dealers added 6,000 jobs and 4,000 jobs, respectively. Employment in retail trade is 550,000 lower than in February.

Employment in leisure and hospitality changed little in November (+31,000) but is down by 3.4 million since February. Arts, entertainment, and recreation added 43,000 jobs in November, while employment in food services and drinking places changed little (-17,000).

This is where it's worth remembering that this flatlining and/or losses are in sectors that have already lost large amounts of jobs in the COVID World, meaning that there is a crater in those industries that is not likely to be filled any time soon, if ever.

As for the household survey that determines the unemployment rate, the drops that we'd seen in recent months also leveled off, and as the AP notes, the decline wasn't for the "good reason".

The unemployment rate declined to 6.7% last month from 6.9% in October. It’s the lowest rate since the outbreak struck in March. But the explanation was not encouraging: 400,000 Americans stopped working or looking for work in November. Because those people weren’t actively looking for a job, they weren’t counted as unemployed. In fact, 74,000 fewer Americans told the Labor Department they were employed last month.

The proportion of adults who are either working or looking for work — what economists call the labor force participation rate — dropped to 61.5% last month from 61.7% in October.

This also resulted in a decline in the Employment-Population Ratio, which the Bureau of Labor Statistics uses to illustrate just how much of the working age population is actually working. That number is now at 57.3%, well below the 61% that we were at before COVID, and lower than any month in the 35 years between 1984 and 2019.

And as we've seen in the unemployment claims report, more of the unemployed have been out of work for a longer time, and permanently. Also concerning is that the number of people on short-term unemployment grew for the first time since the first COVID-related shutdowns happened in the Spring.

Now add in the prospect of even colder weather, more COVID carnage, and the expiration of stimulus measures that give some kind of stability (especially for all those individuals out of work for more than 26 weeks), and you got the potential for things to get even worse in a hurry. It's going to be a perilous last 4 weeks of 2020, which could devolve into a rough 2021, and help needs to be on the way sooner than later.