A couple of recent updates of COVID figures from the Wisconsin Department of Health Services gave some illuminating information about where we stand today.
The first is negative, as COVID cases have jumped back up in the last week after a two-week plateau. More than 3,400 new cases were reported on each of the last 2 days, putting the 7-day average over 2,000 for the first time since Joe Biden took office as president, and coming 10 days before we broke through 2,000 new cases last September.
The DHS’s breakdown of cases by age generally lags by a couple of weeks. But even with that incomplete total, you can see that much of the recent increase is driven by children under 18 catching COVID (as shown in blue), which coincides with the start of the school year.
By contrast, another bit of COVID information from DHS gave me a lot of comfort, which was
the monthly release comparing COVID outcomes between vaccinated and unvaccinated Wisconsinites. DHS gave their full “age-adjusted” figures for August, describing the age adjustment in this way.
Age adjustment, or age standardization, is used in epidemiology to allow populations to be compared directly when the age distribution of who most commonly gets the disease, or seriously sick from the disease, is skewed. Almost all diseases or health outcomes occur at different rates in different age groups, and that is true of COVID-19. Older populations are, in general, more likely to experience severe illness and death due to COVID-19.
In the case of the COVID-19 vaccine, older populations were eligible to receive the vaccine before younger populations. As such, they represent a larger proportion of the fully vaccinated population. On the other hand, younger populations represent a larger proportion of the not fully vaccinated group. In order to more fairly compare rates of hospitalization and death among fully vaccinated and not fully vaccinated groups, we do an age adjustment so that the overall rates are based on the same population proportions. This is similar to calculating a rate per 100,000 in order to compare rates across populations of different sizes.
Those age-adjusted figures show significant disparities in what happens to people afflicted with COVID-19, depending on whether or not they are vaccinated.
But the overall figures (even with DHS’ attempts to adjust for age) are selling short how much better the outcomes are for vaccinated Wisconsinites. Here’s a look at the rate of hospitalization among the various age groups.
As you can see, for Wisconsinites under the age of 65, the unvaccinated are between
11 and 15 times more likely to end up in the hospital with COVID-19, no matter the age group. The death disparity is even more stark, given that DHS says
zero vaccinated Wisconisnites under 55 have died of COVID.
Being in the 45-54 age bracket myself, those figures make it seem like I don’t have all that much to worry about if I should get COVID. It still wouldn’t be good – I know a couple of people that have had breakthrough cases, and they describe it as kind of severe cold or case of the flu that lingers for several days – but it does seem that I don’t need to worry as much about how bad things will get if I get hit with the virus.
It’s also worth noting that I live in Dane County, which has the highest vaccination rate in the state (81.7% of adult residents are fully vaccinated), and the second-lowest rate of infection in the state, as shown by
DHS’s 14-day summary figures that came out on Wednesday. Dane County’s levels of new cases are more than 40% below the state as a whole, and that figure came over the same 2 weeks that 2 rural counties reached “extremely high” rates exceeding 1 per 100 people.
Given that
the UW-Madison campus is more than 90% vaccinated, it’s possible we will not see the spike in cases here that we saw last September. And that, along with the much safer outcomes among those who are vaccinated make me think that I don’t need to live in as worry about what might happen should I get the virus.
The outcomes on getting vaccinated is much like how driving sober and with a seat belt on makes me less likely to get into a car crash, and more likely to survive any crash that does happen. Seems like a generally good plan, and I have a little more confidence in being able to go out and do what I want to do, in the times and places I want to do them. But I’ll keep masking up indoors and still dining/drinking outdoors for the most part (for now), because who wants to be a potential carrier for the unvaccinated young and the more-susceptible old?
One of the biggest misconceptions I keep hearing from pretty much everyone is that COVID-19 is “coming back.” As if it ever went anywhere. Another one is, “Darn, we beat COVID and now Delta is here.” No, we never beat COVID. Delta is not a new challenge. It’s just the continuation of COVID-19. As are all the other variants.
ReplyDeleteThe most agonizing thing about this is that we really could have beaten it. We were handed not one, but three magic gifts on a silver platter—Pfizer, Moderna, and J&J—and way too many Americans simply said, “Nah.” While I suppose I shouldn’t be, I am genuinely surprised at Wisconsin’s disappointing vaccination numbers.
While it should be easy to say, “If you’re not vaccinated by now, screw you, just die,” it isn’t fair. That is, it isn’t fair to the overtaxed first responders and hospitals; it isn’t fair to struggling businesses and the economy; and it certainly isn’t fair to the innocent children who are now getting sick. That last one chokes me up just thinking about it, and not just because I’m a grandfather.
Your last paragraph really hits what makes me angriest. There are many people that are suffering due to the selfishness of anti-vaxxers, and the availability of hospital beds and other medical resources are being taken away from people dealing with illnesses that aren't self-inflicted.
DeleteAnd thanks for the comments from Katrina and WashCoRepub (!). If all Wisconsinites stepped up and did our part to take out this virus, we wouldn't have this overhang that seeps into everyday life. We also wouldn't be having the disruptions in the job market and other parts of the economy that are clearly still happening in September 2021.
To further the bipartisan nature of these comments, I will add that I’m very impressed with UW Interim President Tommy Thompson. His hard work and enthusiasm in getting the UW campuses vaccinated has been a godsend. I’ve never heard him say anything of a political nature, just “Let’s beat this thing!!!” That’s the attitude EVERYONE should have. (The guy just needs to learn to stay off of water skis.)
DeleteAlso, Flu shots are available people. It's important to get them so you don't get the flu and further clog up the hospitals.
ReplyDeleteThe anti-vax, anti-science wing(nuts) in my party sadden and disgust me. They say things like "I don't want it changing my DNA!", when they have no idea how an mRNA vaccine works. Well, all of us probably don't understand the equations that make a jet's wings lift, or how the memory registers work in the chips in your laptop, or how Doppler radar helps protect us from tornadoes, but you use and have faith in them, right? But the tens of thousands working tirelessly for probably millions of person-hours on the vaccines, they don't know what they're doing, or they're intentionally trying to harm us?
ReplyDeleteShaking my head. Preventable tragedies, so many of these deaths.