I saw a note the other day on what
Tom Tiffany and David Crowley might do with the $3 billion or so that is projected to be in the state's bank account as they start their first budget.
Crowley, the Milwaukee County executive, ...knocked Tiffany for supporting Republicans’ One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which he said cut money from Medicare and Medicaid. He also knocked Tiffany for supporting the end of enhanced subsidies for those who get their coverage through the Affordable Care Act exchanges.
“We need to make sure we are providing back to the community in some form or fashion,” Crowley said during a media gaggle in Wausau in response to a question from WisPolitics. “We know that there’s an affordability crisis.”
That would require additional state spending making up for the needs that are resulting in our current economic and fiscal holes that are affecting a lot of Wisconsinites. So
I looked to Crowley's website on the economy to get a better idea what that specifically means. Here are the main talking points.
There are a lot of generalities over details on this as you read further into Crowley's webpage, but it's typical Dem priorities like expanding broadband and roadwork, increased apprenticeships, encouraging small business with incentives, expanding access to health care, etc.. But I think the education and child care pieces are more specific and noteworthy.
Crowley’s plan includes universal early childhood education, new investments in public schools, and closing the special education reimbursement gap. He’ll ensure that every child has a launchpad to success—whether through college, technical school, apprenticeships, or direct-to-career pathways....
Crowley believes every family deserves access to safe, affordable, high-quality child care. As Governor, he will champion long-term investments that stabilize providers, expand early childhood programs, and ensure working parents never have to choose between earning a paycheck and caring for their children. Crowley will prioritize raising subsidy rates so families can afford care, supporting providers so they can keep their doors open, and growing pre-K readiness programs that give every child a strong start. By making child care more accessible and dependable, Crowley will strengthen Wisconsin’s workforce, support parents, and give every child the foundation to thrive.
This would seem to involve increased spending on those investments, both on one-time and ongoing bases. Another investment priority seems to be in green energies (which is VERY different than what claimte-denying Toxic Tommy would do).
Climate action is economic investment. Crowley will invest in solar, energy retrofits, and clean infrastructure that creates thousands of union jobs across Wisconsin. He’s already cut emissions nearly 50% in Milwaukee County—now he’s ready to take that impact statewide.
There's also this part, where Crowley indicates Milwaukee would not be the only community allowed to raise its own sales tax to free itself from fiscal handcuffs and reliance on the property tax.
Through smart revenue reform, Crowley will ensure local governments have the tools and funding to serve their residents — while lowering property taxes and re-empowering local decision-making. That means giving communities the resources to invest in what matters most: well-trained police and fire departments, reliable public works, responsive local services, and the ability to shape their own future without interference from Madison. As County Executive, Crowley successfully secured new state revenue tools for local governments, fought to restore local control, and delivered balanced budgets that protect public safety and expand services. As Governor, he’ll finish the job — because no one knows what a community needs better than the people who live and lead there.
And that's where we'll jump over to what Crowley's Republican opponent wants to do, because taxing and local government issues are where there seem to be significant differences.
Tiffany, a GOP congressman from Minocqua, said in a statement the new numbers are more proof that Wisconsin is overtaxed and isn’t “a green light for Madison and David Crowley to spend more of your money.”
“As governor, I’ll return the entire surplus to taxpayers and deliver lasting tax relief for working families so you can keep more of what you earn year after year,” he said.
Also in the last week,
Tiffany has released an 8-point plan on the economy, and among the list of ideas are these.
Lower Property Taxes: End the 400-year property tax increase and freeze property taxes so families and seniors aren’t taxed out of their homes.
Deliver a 10% Working Families Income Tax Cut: Cut income taxes by 10% for working families earning under $150,000. Crowley voted against a 10% middle-class income tax cut in the Legislature, while Tiffany supported it. (Edit - he's talking about the 2019-21 budget that the then-gerrymandered Legislature threw at Gov Evers, which had a whole lot more than just a tax cut in it.)
End Taxes on Tips and Overtime: Eliminate state income taxes on tips and overtime so hardworking Wisconsinites keep more of what they earn....
Prevent Sales Tax Hikes: Protect Wisconsin families from additional sales tax increases. Crowley already raised Milwaukee County’s sales tax by 80%.
So Tiffany is going to reinstall limits on K-12 school resources and put a freeze on property taxes. So where is the money going to come to keep schools running by doing so? HAHAHA! We know there won't be any, just like in the Walker years.
And a 10% income tax cut on families making under $150K may be something, will have a price tag to it that gets paid year after year. Looking at the LFB's most recent Informational Paper on income taxes, it says that Wisconsinites making $150,000 or less paid around $3.77 billion in income taxes in 2022 (the last year data was accumulated for that repoert).
So based on 2022 returns, 10% cuts of income tax liability would be around $377 million a year. It might be a bit less than that in 2027, given that inflation and tax cuts since then have lowered some tax liability for people in these tax brackets over 5 years, so let's estimate it at $350 million a year. Most Wisconsinites in those tax brackets would take home an additional $100-$500, from what I can see, and the cost numbers indicate this one can be afforded (at least for now).
We know the price tag of ending taxes on tips and OT premium pay, because it was part of the deal between Evers and the GOP leaders in the Legislature that didn't pass back in May. The OT premium would cost $179.9 mil in year 1, then $148.1 mil a year after that, and the income tax exemption for tips would be $52.9 million to start anbd $48.9 mil a year after that.
And as for freezing sales taxes for local communities? Funny how Tom Tiffany would do that after his hometown of Minocqua put in a 0.5% sales tax of its own this July (related - has anyone asked Tiffany about Minocqua having a higher sales tax than Milwaukee County)? Also, how is any local community going to pay for anything if they can't raise property taxes or sales taxes?
It reminds me of Scott Walker refusing to increase gas taxes and fees as the state's roads continued to get worse while he was in office.
And before you say "the money would come from Tiffany would close the sales tax exemption that goes to data center", I'd remind you that the LFB hasn't assumed any loss of revenue from that provision. So ending that wouldn't change anything on revenue projections whatsoever. On the flip side, if that tax writeoff stays and blows up as high as the
$1.9 billion that the LFB said was possible when it broke down the provision in April, so it seems like a good idea for Crowley to also join in getting rid of that one.
But it's "only" $580 million a year or so in income tax cuts that Tiffany would want (at least the ones he mentions, not the ones to the rich and corporate he'd be sure to do). We can afford that, right?
Don't be so sure. The cushion that's baked into the next state budget is going to be less than $3 billion, and possibly quite a bit less. Remember that state government is already spending more than we are taking in, even with these higher revenues.
In addition,
the structural deficit for the next budget totalled $1.7 billion as of May, although the better revenues for 2026 is likely to reduce that some.
Then add in the
state’s Medicaid budget already being projected to be $322 million in the hole by next June 30, which will reduce some of the $3 billion+ that is supposed to be available on that date.
There are also items that loom as additional expenses in the next budget that have to be accounted for. You can bet the cost to continue current Medicaid services are going to be significantly higher in the next budget, let alone what might have to be done to make up the difference for Wisconsinites that may be kicked off of Medicaid due to Tax Scam 2.0.
There's also a sizable structural deficit in the state's Transportation Fund, which is currently spending around $300 million more than it is taking in without transferring more money from the General Fund.
So there's another $600 million in the next budget that needs to be taken care of in some way, And it'll likely be more, given that gasoline consumption and gas tax revenues won't rise much (if at all) while costs of construction keep going up.
Yes, there is likely room for some tax relief and/or state funds available to reduce property taxes in the next state budget. But the increasing needs and burdens placed onto state government makes Tom Tiffany's plans for permanent tax cuts a bad idea, and while David Crowley has good ideas on expanding and increasing investments, there are a lot of current expenses that are going to keep rising over the next two years.
