Wednesday, September 30, 2015

Marquette Poll shows Wisconsinites ain't buying the GOP

My real life has interfered with going too far into detail on today's Marquette Law School poll, but here are a few quick thoughts.

Obviously, a major headline is Scott Walker's approval rating staying in the toilet, with only 37% approval (and perhaps even worse, 59% disapproval). But take a look at other Walker-related poll questions, and if anything, it looks even worse for him.

Walker favorability
Favorable 36.5%
Unfavorable 56.5%

Scott Walker cares about people like me
Yes 35.3%
No 60.5%

Would you personally want to see Scott Walker seek a third term?
Yes 34.9%
No 62.0%

This is why I don't see Walker recovering, regardless of how the Wisconsin media still tries to throw him softball questions and prop him up. People flat-out don't like him any more, and want him to go away. This feels very much like George Dubya Bush's 2nd-term approval trajectory- once it got upside down, it never came back.

It's bad news in general for Republicans in this poll. The party ID skews slightly more Dem than usual (30 D, 25 R, 43 Ind.), but not much different than you'd see in a pro-Dem year. And the head-to-head matchups in the Marquette Poll indicates it would definitely be a Dem year if the election were held today. Stating with Russ Feingold's boat-racing of (mo)Ron Johnson.

Feingold 50.0, Johnson 36.2

Feingold favorability
Favorable 41.6%
Unfavorable 31.6%
Haven't heard enough 24.3%

Johnson favorability
Favorable 26.8%
Unfavorable 35.5%
Haven't heard enough 33.4%

More people find Johnson unfavorable AND more people don't know enough to have an opinion about him than they do with Russ. And given that Johnson is so far down, all he and his dark-money backers can do is go negative, which will likely drive even more people to dislike (mo)Ron. Plus, it's hard to make better-known person like Russ unfavorable when more people already like him.

And (mo)Ron Johnson wouldn't be the only GOP losing in a statewide race in 2016. Take a look at these presidential head-to-heads.

Clinton 50.5%
Bush 38.1%

Sanders 48.8%
Bush 38.5%

Clinton 48.1%
Rubio 40.3%

Sanders 48.5%
Rubio 36.3%

Clinton 49.8%
Trump 36.4%

Sanders 53.1%
Trump 34.5%

Note that Bernie Sanders does better against Rubio and Trump than Clinton does, and both lead Jeb Bush by double-digits. Marco Rubio does the best in any head-to-head matchup (within 8 points of Clinton), but that seems to be related to Rubio having the highest "unknown" rating out of the three GOPs asked. That's not a good sign for how the GOP brand is being thought of in the state, when the least-known guy is the one who does best.

Sure, it's merely one poll and we're 13 months out, but it sure seems like the typical Wisconsinite isn't buying what the GOP is selling, either on the state or national level. Which makes me wonder why the GOPs think doubling down on their arrogance and bad ideas is a winning strategy (maybe they just don't care at this point and want to grab whatever they can before they lose).

Regardless, this is not the time for Dems to be lame and try to coast in. This is where they need to be standing up stronger and louder and pointing out that they don't stand for the crap the GOP wants to pull, and that if Dems are put in power, THE CRAP WILL END. This is not the time to play nice let these guys off the mat, no matter what the consultant class tries to say is "political reality."

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