Wednesday, July 24, 2024

Famliar sights, good things, and not-so-good things

Well, looks like we've got a sure sign that we're on the back half of the Summer. And that some things are still normal.

Also things weren't so bad south of the border.

But then we also get reminded not to get too happy-clappy, and that things will never be as easy as they seem.

Just keep finding a way, Crew. Find a way.

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Tuesday, July 23, 2024

Wisconsin Number 1 for wage growth in the last year?

I had mentioned that things are going well in Wisconsin's job market. But I didn't know that we were having the best wage growth in America?
Gov. Tony Evers, together with the Wisconsin Department of Workforce Development (DWD), today announced Wisconsin ranked first in the nation for inflation-adjusted hourly earnings growth during February, March, and May 2024, and second in the nation during April, according to the preliminary data on private sector worker earnings released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The news comes as, last week, Gov. Evers and DWD announced preliminary data show Wisconsin hit its second consecutive monthly record for employment.

“Whether we’re looking at our nationally top-ranked wage growth, our record-high employment, or our strong workforce participation, it’s clear that Wisconsinites are working and working hard, and our economy continues to have positive momentum,” said Gov. Evers. “We’ve made it a priority to build a strong 21st-century workforce to support a strong 21st-century economy, and it’s making a difference for working families across our state. This accomplishment reflects not only the dedication and resilience of our employers and our workforce, but it also shows that together we’re building a more prosperous future for our state.”

For February, March, April, and May, year-over-year statewide earnings growth totaled 7.9 percent, 6.4 percent, 4.4 percent, and 6.2 percent, respectively, based on data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Current Employment Statistics (CES) program and the Consumer Price Index. The CES survey covers hourly earnings by workers at private sector establishments.

Statewide, the average hourly earnings for May 2024 totaled $33.76. The Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis area led the state with average hourly earnings of $34.97, followed by Madison at $34.48 per hour and Eau Claire at $31.63 per hour.
I'm trying to find the data table, which seems to be derived from the Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics (OEWS), which get compiled by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. But the last thing they have published is from May 2023 for Wisconsin's metro areas and the state as a whole.

UW-Madison Professor Menzie Chinn has a similar story up on Econbrowser, but it's got a longer-range view, which shows that inflation-adjusted average wages had slipped after the end of the COVID pandemic, and only the rally in the last year has allowed real wages to exceed pre-COVID levels.

You wish the early 2020s hadn't seen the erosion that it did. But there's no doubt that as inflation has gotten under control in the last 12-18 months, Wisconsin's workers are seeing gains in their pay, and it seems like we should try to keep these good times going as best we can.
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Sunday, July 21, 2024

Thank you Mr. President. Now LET'S BEAT THE BAD GUYS

Well, there is this.

And then this.

That's what had to be done, Mr. President. It's not fair, but sometimes the voters aren't going to reward good results, and aren't going to latch onto you no matter what you say or do. And to be honest, Jpe Biden only got nominated in 2020 because calls from the big wigs were made telling many of the other Dem candidates to drop out endorse him (including Kamala Harris), Most Dem voters went along with it so we could get on with the business of beating Trump.

So the shoe went on the other foot here, where the big wigs and insiders told Biden to get out to improve the chances of beating Trump. And I assume Biden's immediate endorsement of VP Harris was part of the deal that was made. Don't fuck around in Chicago, just do the right thing and agree to back Harris, pick a good running mate, and get back to the mission at hand.

Do that, and the whole "senile old white man who is cringy to watch" factor now lies with Trump. MAGAts may not care about that, but the other 2/3 of America likely will, and have it be part of their voting calculations. Throw in a heavy dose of Project 2025 talk, and the inevitable racist/misogynist BS that will tick off anyone with a drop of decency, and I think the Dems chances of winning at all levels in November just went up by quite a bit.

LET'S DO THIS.
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Friday, July 19, 2024

June Wis jobs report - things are really good

Right before Donald Trump spoke in Milwaukee on Thursday night, we got a big Wisconsin jobs report for June.
Place of Residence Data: Wisconsin’s unemployment rate remained at 2.9 percent in June, 1.2 percentage points below the national rate of 4.1 percent. Wisconsin’s labor force decreased 100 over the month and increased 4,000 over the year. The number of people employed increased 600 over the month to a record-high 3,048,600 employed.

Place of Work Data: Total nonfarm jobs increased 9,400 over the month and increased 30,900 over the year to a record 3,048,000 jobs. Private sector jobs also increased, adding 6,700 over the month and 25,100 over the year to a record-high 2,639,000 private jobs.
In addition, 1,200 of the seasonally-adjusted loss of 1,500 jobs in May was revised away, so this is a net gain of 10,600 jobs over the last state jobs report.

And it was largely good news throughout the report. Construction gained 900 jobs and 500 were added in manufacturing, meaning there was even more people added in those sectors than you usually get in June. Professional and Business Services had a large increase of 4,100, and leisure and hospitality also had higher than normal Summer hiring (+1,600 on a seasonally adjusted basis, and +17,200 in raw numbers).

State government also contributed 3,800 jobs to the June gains, but that comes after 4,600 jobs in that same sector were lost in May. Both seem related to the fact that UW schools let out earlier than normal, meaning jobs were “lost” earlier than the models would anticipate, and then come back as “gains” as June. Still a net loss of 800 in state government over the 2 months, but no biggie either way.

For the household survey, it continued a trend we’ve seen for the last three months – labor force staying around the same, and a slight increase of Wisconsinites listing themselves as “employed”.

That’s a good combination to have, but also shows a state that is likely near its capacity, and continues the challenge of attracting people to our state.

One way is through better wages, which does seem to have been happening in the last 12 months in our state, to a point where inflation-adjusted wages are well above where we were before the COVID pandemic.

I don't think we're going to continue at a pace of 9,400 jobs gained a month. But it's undeniable that Wisconsin's jobs market is in a great place, and if anything, it's gotten better in 2024, in contrast to the slowing down that we've seen in the national jobs stats. ).

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Wednesday, July 17, 2024

Retail sales, home building shows more proof of a moderate economy

With the case for interest rate cuts growing in the last couple of weeks, we looked to Tuesday's retail sales report for June to see if a Springtime slump in consumer spending was continuing as Summer began.

Pretty good, all things considered. And the drop in auto sales seems to be related to a wave of cyberattacks that hit car dealers last month, so expect a rebound there once things return to normal.

But those numbers also aren't so strong that it should re-fire inflation. In addition, note that part about home building being "softish". That got reiterated on Wednesday with a report that showed home building was up in June, but still down from the month before.
Building Permits
Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in June were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,446,000. This is 3.4 percent above the revised May rate of 1,399,000, but is 3.1 percent below the June 2023 rate of 1,493,000. Single-family authorizations in June were at a rate of 934,000; this is 2.3 percent below the revised May figure of 956,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 460,000 in June.

Housing Starts
Privately-owned housing starts in June were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,353,000. This is 3.0 percent (±10.5 percent)* above the revised May estimate of 1,314,000, but is 4.4 percent (±12.7 percent)* below the June 2023 rate of 1,415,000. Single-family housing starts in June were at a rate of 980,000; this is 2.2 percent (±12.1 percent)* below the revised May figure of 1,002,000. The June rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 360,000.

Housing Completions
Privately-owned housing completions in June were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,710,000. This is 10.1 percent (±10.6 percent)* above the revised May estimate of 1,553,000 and is 15.5 percent (±12.6 percent) above the June 2023 rate of 1,480,000. Single-family housing completions in June were at a rate of 1,037,000; this is 1.8 percent (±10.3 percent)* above the revised May rate of 1,019,000. The June rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 656,000.
The completions are especially interesting to me, as those numbers have been consistently higher in 2024, which could eventually play a role in reducing the lack of inventory that has caused much of the affordability issues in the housing market.

Conversely, permits are significantly lower than where they were at the start of 2022, and while they rose in June, that came after 3 straight months of declines, and the overall trend is still down.

This is yet another reason that I believe the higher interest rates are holding back the economy. And while I think the Fed wants some of that, I think the plan was for that lack of activity to drop home prices due to a lack of demand. Instead, I'd argue that the higher rates are preventing people from wanting to put homes on the market, and the lower amount of permits in 2023 and 2024 will mean lower inventory in the future, and can keep home prices higher than they should be.

I'd hope the Fed would cut rates when they meet in 2 weeks, to get in line with an economy whose GDP and inflation are both running around 2.5%. But sadly I think we are waiting until September for that, assuming things stay on the same trajectory. I just hope it's not caused unnecessary strain on a consumer that has helped keep the economy moving long past what the "experts" have thought.
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Monday, July 15, 2024

A few thoughts on July's Republican get-togethers in Penn and Milwaukee

Needless to say, I’m not going within 75 miles of that cesspool in Milwaukee in the next few days. Especially given that a Walker/WisGOP-era law allows for Meal Team Six types to walk down the streets a few blocks from the FiServ Forum with guns in this time of elevated tension.

Plus, while I still despise Republicans in general, I’m more disgusted with the pathetic people in the DC media and their vapid Insider Club that thinks politics is all a game and that somehow they will be spared from the disastrousness of another lawless Trump presidency - this time with more competent and fascist dweebs in charge! I’d be more likely to want to berate those soulless elitists in alleged political journalism than I would for a lot of the GOP politicians that will be walking around town.

Not that many Republican politicians aren't soulless, mind you, but many are also weak, whiny trash in over their heads, with no skill beyond shamelessness. It's the media that gives legitimacy to GOP idiocy and repression, because you gotta get that access (to the cocktail parties) somehow.

I’ll move over to the shooting in Pennsylvania at a Trump rally over the weekend. I don’t view it as anything different than when some young white guy shoots up a grocery store parking lot, or a school, or shoots into a crowd at other public gatherings. It could have been a Biden rally or a local high school football game, and this guy would have been fine with using the event to take his AR-15 and become (in)famous on his way off this earth.

I think the fact that this shooting happened at a political rally had a lot more to do with delusions of grandeur and “blaze of glory” BS from a 20-year-old guy living in Dad’s basement than any politics whatsoever. But that didn’t stop Republicans from trying to claim it was, including this far-too-quick response from Trump's VP candidate barely an hour after the shooting.

The real message that I take from that tweet is that GOPs want to use this incident to try to make Dems stop talking about the GOP agenda and Project 2025. Telling the truth about those things were clearly landing blows on Republicans at all levels, and Biden had shown signs of recovering any support he had lost in after his bad debate 2 ½ weeks ago.

Know what else Republicans aren't going to want to talk about after this? The fact that it's GOP laws and the GOP crooks on the Supreme Court that allowed this country to get to a place where a 20-year-old freak is able to walk around with an AR-15, just waiting to use it. Thoughts and prayers, guys.

Always know that when GOPs start pleading for “unity” in light of incidents like the shooting in Pennsylvania, it’s a one-way street to them. And New Republic editor Alex Shephard says it is no different this time.
…[W]e know how Donald Trump thinks America should be united: by reelecting him and allowing him and his cronies to ransack the country’s institutions. Indeed, Trump was back to his old tricks on Monday. After a loyalist federal judge threw out the case alleging that he illegally retained classified documents after leaving the White House, he posted this missive:
As we move forward in Uniting our Nation after the horrific events on Saturday, this dismissal of the Lawless Indictment in Florida should be just the first step, followed quickly by the dismissal of ALL the Witch Hunts — The January 6th Hoax in Washington, D.C., the Manhattan D.A.’s Zombie Case, the New York A.G. Scam, Fake Claims about a woman I never met (a decades old photo in a line with her then husband does not count), and the Georgia “Perfect” Phone Call charges. The Democrat Justice Department coordinated ALL of these Political Attacks, which are an Election Interference conspiracy against Joe Biden’s Political Opponent, ME. Let us come together to END all Weaponization of our Justice System, and Make America Great Again!
This brief statement contains an attack on the legal system, a defense of insurrectionists, and the suggestion that his political opponent is leading a sinister plot to destroy him. It is vintage Trump.

That’s the real (and really depressing) takeaway from Saturday’s events. Nothing has changed. Trump remains the biggest threat to democracy in this country. He will continue to encourage political violence in service of his political project, which is built on hatred and retribution. The attempted assassination has left him and his devotees emboldened as they attack their rivals and attempt to shut down dissent. There is no effort to lower the temperature—only to justify one side’s political attacks while silencing the other’s. And the longer Democrats cower in the wake of Saturday’s shooting, the stronger the autocrat becomes.
And how dare the GOP start complaining about tone after the last 15 years of their winks, nods, and outright support of violence against Democrats and anyone else that opposed them. There is a great post on Daily Kos that goes over 40 times Donald Trump encouraged others to physically hurt and/or kill others as a way of resolving issues.

In addition, Republicans in Congress sure like to pose with guns and call Democrats Satan in order to show how they will "fight” against….national health care and equal rights?

When it comes to acceptance and encouragement of violence, it ain’t close to the same galaxy between the two parties.

And Dems cannot listen to “concerns” given by pro-Trump corporate media, and instead should ask why media is even trying to “both sides” a tone debate. In this case, I’d argue Dems have not been nearly harsh enough on GOPs, given the horrible stuff Trump and GOPs would like to do, while GOPs are allowed to get away with (in some cases literally) condoning/encouraging violence and murder.

If I hear GOPs shed crocodile tears and say “We need to calm things down”, the Dems response should be “Oh yeah, GOP? You first.” And Dems cannot back down from telling the TRUTH about the repression and fascism that is associated with Project 2025 and the retribution that Trump promises to impose on those who called out his crookedness and hateful garbage. Dems need to be doing this today, all throughout this week, and for the next 3 ½ months, non-stop.

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Saturday, July 13, 2024

As the RNC comes to SE Wis, never forget Foxconn

Excellent segment by Ronny Chieng on The Daily Show reminding us of the epic scam and failure that Republicans pushed on this state 7 years ago. And how I bet no one else in national media will mention this debacle when Donald Trump gets renominated on Thursday, and talks about "making things in America."

Props to The Daily Show for keeping the part where local anti-Foxconn activist Kelly Gallaher mentions that the land and highways and related infrastructure was given to Foxconn, at a cost of significant debt for the local yokels in Mount Pleasant along with the relocation of homes to clear the way for this white elephant. And how the segment goes into how Foxconn kept changing their plans as to what they were going to allegedly build in Racine County.

Which tells you that both Foxconn and the WisGOPs that allowed this deal to go through had nothing to begin with, and that Scott Walker and Paul Ryan and Robbin' Vos and Donald Trump didn't care about that reality, as long as they got a headline and media event out of it.

There's another great part where Chieng is interviewing former Foxconn exec/grifter Alan Yeung, where Yeung basically says there was no real plan for Foxconn in SE Wisconsin (well, beyond "get the money, the land, and the PR"), but wants credit for....trying?
YEUNG: It really is trailblazing and making pioneering decisions, even though it might not make sense...

CHIENG: Even though it makes absolutely no sense.

YEUNG: Well, OK, absolutely no sense. But right now, I think we're in chapter two or chapter three of the whole thing.

CHIENG: Chapter 11 of the thing, right?
Yeung also follows with a line where he says "you really shouldn't care if you build potato chips or microchips." Ummmm, I think it does matter, Alan. I don't think we'd have given billions and golden shovels to process potato chips and claim it was the "eighth wonder of the world", like Trump did.

Gallaher later brings up the new multi-billion dollar development in Mount Pleasant, a massive Microsoft data center, which doesn't have as much in subsidies as the Fox-con did. And let's just say Chieng is skeptical about the long-term benefit of that.
GALLAHER: It's going to be an AI data center.

CHIENG: Wait, an AI Center is going to take jobs. They're going to replace workers. You're going to end up with less jobs than before.

GALLAHER: Well, it's better than nothing.

CHIENG: Actually, no. Because no jobs would be zero. This will be negative jobs because it'll be taking other people's jobs. GALLAHER: All I know is that these are 2,000 real jobs.

CHIENG: Oh these goddam villagers and their "jobs", man! You guys talk about anything else here? (theatrically walks away).
Given that I am fast going into the "AI is just another scam by grifting tech bros intended to grab profit and add nothing useful" camp, I hear ya Ronnie.

The giveaways and look even worse in the 2020s, now that there has been a real industrial policy put in place for modern manufacturing under President Biden, with a boom in construction of new factories.

And hey, it's a strategy that doesn't rely on giving away entire townships to companies in exchange for empty promises to desperate communities and doesn't give massive tax cuts (beyond some investment incentives) to corporations! Seems like a better plan that what Repiublicans cooked up 7 years ago, isn't it?
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