Good Friday tunes

Between my Trainspotting flashbacks and the unnecessary international tensions in the news this week, this song seems to fit things quite well going into the weekend.

Can someone stop the foolishness in this here country? I know we celebrate death on Good Friday, but let's back away and act like grownups, shall we? Or get someone in charge that can at least imitate a grownup?

Trump bombs obscuring shaky Wall Street, deficit numbers

In a week where Commander Cuckoo Bananas decides to drop a big bomb on Afghanistan (why? I don't know and I bet they don't either), Wall Street markets and the nation's finances have gotten a bit shaky. All of these events have happened in the last 2 days.

1. The S&P is now below its 50-day moving average for the first time since Trump was elected president. That was yesterday, and today the DOW Jones Industrial average dropped another 138 points, with all of that decline happening after news of the bomb being dropped came out around midday.

2. 10-year bond note has dropped below 2.3% for first time since the middle of November, and yields went further down today. That seems to indicate some kind of "flight to quality" where people aren't willing to keep their money in stocks for the time being. This seems especially true with the markets being closed tomorrow for Good Friday, and Wall Streeters not wanting to be caught with stocks in case these dimwits make another dumb move that puts
this country at further risk.

3. Also noteworthy is that the monthly Treasury statement was released yesterday, which is a nice benchmark report since March 31 marks the halfway point of the Federal Fiscal Year. And the numbers were not good.

The Treasury Department reported Wednesday that the deficit in March totaled $176.2 billion, compared to $108 billion in March of last year. A big part of that increase reflected $42 billion in April benefit payments that were shifted into March because April 1 fell on a Saturday this year.

Through the first six months of this budget year, the deficit totals $526.9 billion, up 14.7 percent from last year's six-month total of $459.4 billion.

Sure, the $42 billion in added April spending added to that deficit, but if you take out that one-time quirk, the US still had its deficit go up by $26 billion compared to March of 2016, and our year-to-date deficit would still be higher than it was last year. And even if we were to match the figures from the last half of fiscal year 2016, the US would end up with a higher deficit...even if you adjust for that $42 billion in spending. And that's not what the Congressional Budget Office was predicting in January.

US budget deficit FY2016 + FY2017
2016 $585.6 billion
2017 (Jan proj) $559 billion
Adj. 2017 (if next 6 months match 2016) $611.1 billion

The main problem is low revenue growth- with receipts being down $3.1 billion compared to where we in March 2016. Even more worrisome is that tax refunds would be expected to be behind last year’s total, partly due to there being no leap year (so 1 fewer day has been processed in FY 2017 vs 2016), and partly due to some refunds being delayed due to extra scrutiny being given to the Earned Income Tax Credit and certain child tax credits.

But you wouldn’t know it from the last two months, as February’s revenues were up by less than 2% vs 2016, and March fell by nearly 5% vs 2017. And Trump and the GOP Congress are still planning to put in tax cuts while blowing millions in bombs in light of this situation? Are they kidding?

We’re not in any kind of economic emergency at this time, but none of this week's events indicate we're feeling the “Trump Boom” that the Wall Street greedheads and Wisconsin budgeteers were counting on. And with GDP, retail sales and inflation numbers all being released in the next couple of weeks, I think it’s worthy to keep aware, as it doesn’t seem like things are as cheery as many "financial journalists" would like you to believe.

Sorry Scotty, but the DOT shortfall is more than a $100 million problem

Given all of the strife that has been raised among Wisconsin Republicans regarding the state's debt-ridden Transportation Fund, this press release was interesting to see this afternoon.

The Wisconsin Department of Transportation (WisDOT) has realized let savings over the course of the state fiscal year. “Today, I am directing WisDOT to advance $65 million in projects statewide into state fiscal year 2017," Governor Scott Walker said. "In addition, WisDOT is projecting an additional $38 million in revenues, which the Legislature can allocate into the 2017-19 biennial budget. In total, these actions free up more than $100 million in funds for additional transportation projects due to new revenues and savings."

“Savings on the highway projects we planned for this year allows us to do more projects with existing funds. This June, WisDOT will fund 21 additional projects around the state,” noted Wisconsin Department of Transportation Secretary Dave Ross.

Lower fuel prices and more competitive bids on projects have resulted in increased savings on road projects. Using these savings now means WisDOT will accomplish more road work in the current fiscal year and provide additional resources to the Legislature in planning the next budget. Improving more roadways and bridges now, before inflation reduces purchasing power, and taking advantage of the savings will help preserve our assets and maintain infrastructure.

“We are also generating more revenue for transportation without raising the gas tax or registration fees,” noted Secretary Ross.

I suppose that's a good thing that there's a little extra money to put into projects now as opposed to later. But don't let Walker and Ross fool you- these projects were going to happen anyway, they're just starting them a month sooner so they fall into this Fiscal Year.

In fact, as part of the list of projects being accelerated, the DOT shows that the state is actually spending an extra $10 million of new money on top of $55 million in savings on other projects. That eats up most of the $12.97 million in added revenue that is slated to come in for Fiscal Year 2017, and then the 2017-19 budget is slated to get a little over $25 million more than what was originally projected, which brings it up to the $38 million revenue increase Walker and Ross are promoting.

The Walker boys try to make this sound like a big deal, but even Walker's fellow WisGOP was keeping it in perspective in light of the gigantic DOT budget.

While only a 0.7% increase in the total transpo revenue, we're committed to ensuring the revenue will be spent wisely. #wibudget

— John Nygren (@rep89) April 13, 2017

So it's nice, but it doesn't close to solving the state's DOT funding crisis- no matter how the Kochs try to spin it. And starting the state highway projects earlier this Summer isn't going to change the fact that Walker's DOT budget planned to keep state highway rehabilitation below the levels of 2016, and if you add in this $65 million to the 2017-18 totals (basically moving everything up a few months) the Governor's budget was slated to have significant DROPS in state highway spending starting in July 2018 across all levels. This includes major highway projects that need work throughout the state and Southeastern Wisconsin work like I-94 expansion south of Milwaukee and the Zoo Interchange.

Now given that the Joint Finance Committee has ignored Walker's DOT budget and is starting from the base numbers for 2017, having a projected $110.5 million to carry over is a good thing, but it makes me wonder if some of this extra money might be put back to make up for the following planned Walker budget trick (and yes, I finally found the text on this).

Revenue bond debt service is primarily paid from vehicle registration revenue prior to that revenue being deposited in the transportation fund. Consequently, debt service payments are considered negative revenue rather than a transportation fund expenditure. Total transportation revenue bond debt service in 2016-17 is estimated at $229,877,700 an amount that is projected to increase under the bill to an estimated $233,023,600 in 2017-18 and $231,006,700 in 2018-19.

This reestimate reflects the administration's intention that no principal payments would be made in the 2017-19 biennium on transportation revenue bond obligations scheduled to be issued in the spring, 2017. Instead, debt repayment on these obligations would be structured such that all principal payments would begin in 2019-20, and be fully repaid over the subsequent 17 years (a 20-year maturity in total).

That borrowing is slated to be $144 million and is supposed to happen very soon (although the Walker Administration hasn't brought it out yet). If you space out the principal equally over 20 years, that's $7.2 million a year that's not being paid in each of the next 2 years. Why couldn't $14.4 million of that $38 million in extra revenue be used to avoid bigger payments (and higher structural deficits) in future years? Seems like a good place to start.

The bottom line is that this press release by Walker is a cosmetic move that's intended to distract from the growing numbers of potholes and lack of realistic solutions to solve the increasing deficit in the state's Transportation Fund. Add in the fact that this release seems like a desperate attempt to get out ahead of some looming bad news, and that a classic time to dump bad news would be ahead of Easter Weekend, keep your antennae up for something to come out tomorrow.

This Xer goes Trainspotting 20 years later

Went to see "Trainspotting 2" with a couple of friends last night. The original Trainspotting book by Irvine Welsh was one of those few works that grabbed me and became something that influenced my way of looking at the world. I read it while getting my teaching certificate in my mid-20s, and the numerous '80s music references combined with the awesome descriptive writing fit where my mentality was perfectly (well, except I wasn't on heroin). I also read it at a time when I had a tight group of friends in Indy that hung around in the same bars and many of us played hard. And we were sort of an informal family, not unlike what Renton, Sick Boy, Spud and Begbie were 20 years ago.



Trainspotting 2's a good flick, with classic Danny Boyle stylistic stuff, and while it helps to have seen/know the first movie (especially with Boyle's visual allusions to it), it's not a requirement, as the film almost seems like a 2-hour pilot for a new TV series. With that in mind, the plot takes you down some weird alleys that don't always pan out, but the performances are very good, and as long as you don't expect it to be as crazy and to receive the mind-fucking you got in the original movie, you'll probably like it. T2 hits on what it's like to be in your 40s, and that no matter how much you'd like to think you can do the same things and have the same fun mindset you had when you were 24, you can't get back to that mental place, and it gives the movie a sort of melancholy (especially as Renton starts backsliding from middle-class decency, and you realize Sick Boy's "fun risk-taker" is now a bitter sociopath).

Even the updated "Choose Life" speech sums up how it's different. In the 1990s, the "Choose Life" speech was about rejecting the lameness of what society says you should like and strive for, and when you're single and in your 20s, you can take those risks and have the luxury of living outside those rules that others seem to settle for. But when you're in your 40s, responsibilities like houses and cars and relationships have often piled up, and you're at a point where you can't just pick up and try something new, or take things to the limit. And Renton admitting that reality makes "Choose Life 2017" have an angry edge to it.

choose... designer lingerie, in the vain hope of kicking some life back into a dead relationship. Choose handbags, choose high-heeled shoes, cashmere and silk, to make yourself feel what passes for happy. Choose an iPhone made in China by a woman who jumped out of a window and stick it in the pocket of your jacket fresh from a South-Asian Firetrap. Choose Facebook, Twitter, Snapchat, Instagram and a thousand others ways to spew your bile across people you've never met. Choose updating your profile, tell the world what you had for breakfast and hope that someone, somewhere cares. Choose looking up old flames, desperate to believe that you don't look as bad as they do. Choose live-blogging, from your first wank 'til your last breath; human interaction reduced to nothing more than data. Choose ten things you never knew about celebrities who've had surgery. Choose screaming about abortion. Choose rape jokes, slut-shaming, revenge porn and an endless tide of depressing misogyny. Choose 9/11 never happened, and if it did, it was the Jews. Choose a zero-hour contract and a two-hour journey to work.

And choose the same for your kids, only worse, and maybe tell yourself that it's better that they never happened. And then sit back and smother the pain with an unknown dose of an unknown drug made in somebody's fucking kitchen. Choose unfulfilled promise and wishing you'd done it all differently. Choose never learning from your own mistakes. Choose watching history repeat itself. Choose the slow reconciliation towards what you can get, rather than what you always hoped for. Settle for less and keep a brave face on it. Choose disappointment and choose losing the ones you love, then as they fall from view, a piece of you dies with them until you can see that one day in the future, piece by piece, they will all be gone and there'll be nothing left of you to call alive or dead. Choose your future, Veronika. Choose life.

Yes, I get the irony about posting "Choose Life 2" in a blog. But hey, some of what I do here serves a function of getting out the frustration that can't be revealed in the "proper world." And that's the resignation that Renton is expressing here- you can try to live completely outside the rules, but it rarely gets you very far by the time you reach middle age.

And that's what's staying with me the day after seeing Trainspotting 2- you can love the thought of going back to the frame of mind and lifestyle that you had in your early-mid 20s, including the songs and the places and the friends that you had back then. But you're not going to ever be in that space for long- your life at 40-something won't allow it, for better or for worse. Or if you do, you're giving up a lot of what you have obtained in the last 20 years, in possessions, in careers, in new relationships and what you've learned in life experiences.

Which makes it fitting that the last scene of the movie has Renton back at his Dad's house in Edinburgh, out of work and somewhat screwed over financially. And unlike earlier in the movie, when he drops the needle on this record, this time he lets the music play and gets back into the same "I don't give a fuck" pose and mentality that Renton had in 20 years and about 40 pounds ago. And while you're nodding your head, it also is a good metaphor for how Renton has regressed in his time back in Edinburgh during Trainspotting 2, and the good feeling that this song generates should also remind you that it was a time in the past, and it's one that shouldn't be replicated too often today.

Oh, and you end up looking a lot older 20 years later. You don't know when it happened, but it sure did. Yeah, T2 made me reflect a bit today, and that's a good thing.

Local Wisconsin roads continue to fall apart, will Madison help them at all?

Found this excellent article from over the weekend by the Eau Claire Leader-Telegram's Eric Lindquist, where he talked to Western Wisconsin highways commissioners who are seeing their roads deteriorate in recent years. What Lindquist's article makes clear is that any small bump in aid from the state that might come this year isn't going to be close to paying back several years of neglect and underfunding.

“Locally, we’re getting a 2 to 3 percent increase in general transportation aids, which isn’t even enough to chip-seal a quarter mile of road,” said Eau Claire County highway commissioner Jon Johnson.

With about 42 percent of its road surfaces rated poor or mediocre and on a downward spiral, the county has borrowed $6.5 million in each of the past three years in an effort to catch up. The extra money will enable the county to repave 23 miles of highway this year, exceeding its goal of 20 miles per year, Johnson said.

Dunn County highway commissioner Jesse Rintala said the county generally doesn’t reconstruct highways because of the high costs and instead relies on resurfacing, repaving and reconditioning projects. The county plans to work on about 12 miles of such projects this year, which is about 30 percent fewer miles than would be required to keep up with its 425 miles of county trunk highways based on a 25-year pavement life.

Chippewa County is fighting the same losing battle.

“At 489 centerline miles of county highways in Chippewa County, the goal would be to replace about 25 miles of pavement per year to maintain a 25-year pavement replacement cycle,” highway commissioner Brian Kelley said. “At the current funding levels, we are only able to replace 10 miles of pavement per year, which results in a 49-year pavement replacement cycle.”

And Eau Claire County Commissioner Johnson might not even get that 2-3% increase in local aids, because when the GOP-led Joint Finance Committee ripped up Governor Walker's DOT budget last week, Walker's $71 million increase for local road and general transportation aids and his proposed $33.7 million boost for maintenance also went away.

Obviously, that money could come back as the budget debate develops, but Lindquist's article points out the severity of needs that already exist, and some of the deterioration is unlikely to be reversed. For example, Lindquist notes that the Trempealeau County Town of Chimney Rock has had 7 miles of its roads go back to gravel, and how a bridge on Buffalo County Road U partially collapsed in February, and drivers are still being detoured around it 2 months later.



Yes, Western Wisconsin roads will get some help coming from Washington, as part of $12 million that was announced last week from the US DOT as part of Emergency Funding to offset damages caused by major floods last year. But those damage (and the associated repairs) go beyond the wreckage that had already occurred, and it is highly unlikely that those local governments will be getting more than Walker's original budget in whatever ends up being signed.

And when combined with another year without an increase for general shared revenues to state municipalities, it becomes all the more crucial to see if the GOP Legislature comes up with a plan to increase DOT revenues enough to stop the bleeding and get the repair cycle somewhat back to normal. A whole lot of local government officials are running out of patience as GOP_run state government continues to dither on coming up with a real solution to fill the increasing potholes that line Wisconsin roads.

Walker-Vos spat- Bad budget numbers, but also bad blood?

You probably heard about the great Twitter/texting slap fight between Governor Scott Walker and Assembly Speaker Robbin' Vos that broke on Friday, but I wanted to give a little context to what the argument was all about, and how both are likely off the mark when it comes to what's really can be done with the state budget.

Let's start off with Vos responding to Walker's tweets about how he will care more about DC BubbleWorld right-wingers than Wisconsin not consider an increase in the gas tax. Vos accused Walker of having his staff write those tweets and that it was causing problems in the Legislature when it came to working out the budget.

"The more your staff keeps injecting themselves into the (Joint Finance) process the more difficult you will make it. Lobbying by Twitter isn't going to work here," Vos wrote Walker.

"That's not staff. That's me," Walker texted back. "Your members [in the Assembly] ran ads saying they were against my (2015 proposed) cuts to education so I'm assuming they will support my increases."

"We will support an increase but I'm not sure if we can afford what you propose," Vos responded. "... Do you think it's responsible not to make any interest or debt service payments (on) transportation over the next couple of years?"

I've seen this "no debt service on transportation" reference before, but in looking at the Legislative Fiscal Bureau's write-up on the Transportation Fund, it appears the Walker budget planned to make those payments, and in fact planned to pay more dollars on that debt. But if some of those figures are indeed deferred, then the $880 million structural deficit in the Transportation Fund would even go higher in the next budget, because that's when we'd have to pay back some of that debt (not unlike how we are paying more for debt due to Walker's past tactic of skipping debt payments when it looked like there wasn't going to be enough money to pay the bills in each of the last 2 fiscal years).

Either way, Walker's unrealistic plans for transportation funding it helps explain why the Republicans on the Joint Finance Committee decided to rip up the Governor's DOT budget and start from 2017's figures as they debate in the coming months.

The other part of the argument comes from Vos saying that the $618 million of additional money that Walker wants to give to K-12 public schools may hurt other parts of the budget. Walker's correct that many GOP Assembly members ran ads in 2016 that touted their "independence" by voting against Walker's budget plans, as a way to convince the rubes to keep them in power (even more remarkably, some of these ads came from the voucher lobby, who want to funnel money AWAY from public schools and into privates. That's how skeezy those people are, and how much GOPs in the Legislature hide their true agenda from the voters back home). And it's why Walker cynically included this one-time increase ahead of the 2018 elections, to try to make people forget the damage that he and Vos have both helped inflict onto Wisconsin public schools.

Why Vos is saying that the increase may not be affordable is twofold. The first is the release from the LFB that says there will be a $1 billion structural deficit for the next budget if Walker's 2017-19 budget were to be approved, in no small part because of the large increases in K-12 education, as well as a number of gimmicks like a $1-a-week income tax cut, and making the state spend General Fund tax dollars for the Foresty Property Tax and one-time UW tuition cut without raising the taxes to keep those initiatives going.

Vos doesn't think that's the best way to spend those limited funds, and the Speaker wants to move some General Fund money into the Transportation Fund to reduce borrowing and help reduce cuts to highway projects. Walker seems to be willing to negotiate on this, based on the texts.

"I'm willing to work with you on ways to move more money into the transportation fund," Walker said.

"Well I'm more than willing to sit down with you (but) to somehow say that it's a choice between funding our schools and having roads we can drive on really isn't all that helpful, is it?" Vos shot back.

But that is part of the choice, isn't it Robbin'? There's only so much money to go around in the General Fund, and part of the budget debate is figuring out where to put that money. By nature, if you choose to move money from the General Fund to the Transportation Fund (or borrow from the General Fund, as Senate GOP Leader Scott Fitzgerald has indicated), there's less to go into schools or other programs in the General Fund.

But one line from Walker shows where both of these Republicans are off-base.

I believe we will have decent growth in the future.
- Scott Walker

Vos doesn't even dispute that suggestion, which strikes me as absurd. I already have strong suspicions of the Legislative Fiscal Bureau's rosy revenue assumptions for 2017-19, which is the only way Walker's budget balances in the first place. Then Walker thinks things will continue to grow for the next 2 years, which would mean our current economic expansion would reach 12 straight years by 2021? That has never happened in the post-World War II era, and certainly doesn't seem likely in Wisconsin, where the state's population growth is slowing and aging, nor does it seem likely given the regressive, sleazy clown show of Trump/Ryan/McConnell in DC.

But one other part of the Walker/Vos texting fight indicates a deeper reason may exist for the split, beyond mere budget numbers.


Amoral balding ex-Reagan Youth slap fight!

Check out this part of the exchange that the Journal-Sentinel's Patrick Marley noted.

Here's the last part of the text exchange between Gov. @ScottWalker and Assembly Speaker @RobinVos: pic.twitter.com/QZKiItn1we

— Patrick Marley (@patrickdmarley) April 7, 2017

A lot of this seems to be turf war stuff, where Vos is angry that he and the Assembly GOPs weren't much in the loop before Walker dumped the budget on them, and Walker is still resentful from the disaster of his last budget in 2015-17, which tanked his approval ratings (along with his failed presidential run, which the budget was written for). Vos is also rightfully angry that Walker put all of these pre-election gimmicks into the 2017-19 budget with the full intent that the GOP Legislature would play "bad cop", and be forced remove some of these items in order to make the state somewhat inhabitable by 2019.

And as Cognitive Dissidence's Jeff Simpson pointed out, it may also stem from the fact that Walker's huge failure on the national stage in 2015 blocked the career advancement goals for of these Gen X men.

A huge wrench was thrown into those plans though when Scott Walker, after running for President for four straight years was soundly and thoroughly rejected by the base of the Republican party for an overweight, bad haired, TV reality "star".

That left Walker without a path forward and since he has done nothing but suck off the public teat, he has no intentions of going anywhere. While Scott holds the Governor's office, Robin can not run for it. It is not looked upon very well if someone within a party challenges an incumbent(See Nehlen, Paul) without express consent of the party leaders(See Marklein , Howard).

At the moment Walker can not be President and Vos can not be Governor. That means there is conflict between the two and it boiled over in a series of text messages. You would think that since they both are paid full time wages to work, they could just have sat down together in the Capitol and ironed it out. That would of course mean that they would have to actually be working and in the Capitol. Which we know is a rarity.

And don't believe that Walker's staff doesn't know Vos (and his girl Shelly?) wants that Gov job sooner than later. Which leads to my last point- who told Patrick Marley and other state media about this text/Twitter argument in the first place, and why was the Walker Administration so willing to follow the media's open records complaint and release this information within a week? By comparison, the Walker Administration sat on an open records complaint asking about the King Veterans Home for 3 months, until after the 2016 elections, so it's not like springing fast into action is just the way these guys do things.

They got this Vos/Walker texting fight out for a reason- they think it makes Walker look better to voters and RW BubbleWorlders, and makes Vos look angry and heartless. While I think the Walker people have Vos pegged, I don't think this makes Walker look any good either, but there's definitely more at play here than just a battle over the budget. And given that both the budget and the 2018 election prospects for Republicans are declining by the day, you wonder if the strife gets even worse in the coming months...or if some of this "discussion" all an act to satisfy the unholy alliance of oligarchs, fundies, gun nuts and angry blue-collars that make up today's Wisconsin GOP.

Keep your eyes peeled as the budget debate heats up with the weather in the coming months. Will dick-measuring between these shrimpy dweebs at the Capitol be every bit the problem as the bad budget numbers when it comes to getting something agreed upon?

March jobs were disappointing- or great!

Your thoughts on yesterday's March jobs report probably depended on which number you looked at, and which political party you tend to support. A reminder that the jobs report is split into two measurements- a household survey of individuals (which is shown in the stats that include the unemployment rate), and a survey of business establishments (which is reflected in the total number of jobs reported to be gained or lost), and these numbers were very different in this report.

The household survey indicated that March was great, and continued the strong reports of January and February.

The unemployment rate decreased by 0.2 percentage point to 4.5 percent in March, and the number of unemployed persons declined by 326,000 to 7.2 million. Both measures were down over the year. (See table A-1.)

In March, the number of persons unemployed less than 5 weeks declined by 232,000 to 2.3 million. The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) was little changed over the month at 1.7 million and accounted for 23.3 percent of the unemployed. Over the past 12 months, the number of long-term unemployed was down by 526,000. (See table A-12.)

The labor force participation rate remained at 63.0 percent in March, and the employment-population ratio, at 60.1 percent, changed little. The employment-population ratio has edged up over the year, while the labor force participation rate has shown no clear trend.

Not only did the number of people unemployed drop by 326,000, but the number of people defining themselves as employed went up by 472,000.

Yet the headlines in most reports also included this part of the equation.

The 98,000 increase followed a 219,000 rise in February that was less than previously estimated, a Labor Department report showed Friday in Washington. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for a 180,000 advance.

And that 180,000 projected increase in the business establishment survey was based on the previous numbers. The Bureau of Labor Statistics added that the first two months of 2017 had their gains revised down by quite a bit.

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for January was revised down from +238,000 to +216,000, and the change for February was revised down from +235,000 to +219,000. With these revisions, employment gains in January and February combined were 38,000 less than previously reported. Monthly revisions result from additional reports received from businesses since the last published estimates and from the recalculation of seasonal factors. Over the past 3 months, job gains have averaged 178,000 per month.

Which basically means that we only gained 60,000 jobs compared to what we thought we had going in- a major miss and the 2nd lowest total of job gains in a month over the last 2 years.

One sector in particular dragged down the job figures last month.

Retail trade lost 30,000 jobs in March. Employment in general merchandise stores declined by 35,000 in March and has declined by 89,000 since a recent high in October 2016.

And this is before we get to the larger waves of store closings (Payless ShoeSource is the latest to announce massive shutterings), which will happen in the coming months. There is a clear structural change happening where people are choosing to buy online and/or at Wal-Mart type megastores as opposed to department stores and other brick-and-mortar retail. In addition to the job losses, the dropping property values and empty lots may have significant effects on property tax bills in communities that have had these large stores be a cornerstone of their city.

So what's really happening with the job market? I'm not certain myself. It doesn't seem like wages are going way up (+0.2% for the month, +2.7% for the last 12 months), which would be happening if the labor market was as tight as the household survey indicates. But I also don't see things suffering a major slowdown, as a gain of 180,000 jobs a month for 2017 is largely in line with the 2.2 million total jobs that have been added in the last 12 months. In fact, the large gains in the household survey may just reflect them catching up to the previously-larger gains reported in the payrolls survey, and it still is quite a bit behind.

Job gains last 12 months
Household survey 1.7 million
Payrolls survey 2.2 million

So I'd say we're still in wait-and-see mode on whether we go up or down from the good-but-not-great job growth that we've seen for the better part of the last 2 years. The only thing I feel relatively strong about is that Q1 2017 is going to be nowhere near the 3.5-4% GDP growth that Donald Trump promised the rubes- indeed, the Atlanta Fed is now predicting that growth will be less than 1% when it's reported later this month. And if things don't pick up soon, then we'll see the negative effects for states like Wisconsin that relied on a potential Trump Boom to fill in the gaps of their budgets.