Tuesday, March 6, 2018

MU Law Poll inconclusive for Nov, but offers hints

Well, looks like the Marquette Law School Poll is back, which gives our state media more time to talk incessantly over what they find.

In all, there isn't much to talk about in the summary numbers except for a few issue questions. There also is a giant red flag flashing right at the start, when you look at the demos the MU Law Poll reported.

That doesn't seem to jibe with one another, and the contradictions are reflected in the Party ID being very different depending on whether you separate all "Independents" or use "Leaners" for either party.

This comes from the MU Poll's toplines.

Party ID, no leaners
Republican 27%
Democrat 25%
Independent 46%

Party ID, with leaners
Democrat 45%
Republican 41%
Independent 11.5%

In recent years, Party ID in adjusted exit polls have been around even to R +1 in midterms. And those were midterms where angry white make GOPs were more enthused about voting to stick it to the Black Man in the White House and other resentment BS.

That has changed drastically in the Age of Trump, as shown by the MU Law Poll's "enthusiasm" gap. And the "leaners" stat was the only thing that kept me from throwing the MU Poll in the trash as a Bradley Foundation production.

We continue.

But digging into the crosstabs, Walker's approval is much worse among a few key groups.

30% Moderates
34% People Age 18-29
38% True Independents (no leaning for either party).

Not really the numbers of someone in good shape for re-election, is it?

Geography is also a big variant here, as it tends to be.

City of Milwaukee 24-66
Rest of Milwaukee media mkt 55-37
Madison media market 37-59
GB-Appleton media market 56-40
Rest of state 44-48

Guess the 920 is cool with all the polluted water runoff and paper mill layoffs (CMON GUYS!) Although that stat also makes Walker look extra stupid/scared for not filling the vacant State Senate seat in NE Wisconsin.

Lastly, I want to discuss the MU Law Poll's findings on Foxconn.

I hate the Fox-con, but even I assume it'll add something to the "Milwaukee area." The problem is that it's nowhere close to be worth blowing $4.5 BILLION IN TAX DOLLARS and reducing activity in the rest of the state.

The MU Law Poll did ask about that, albeit with a watered-down price tag of $3 billion and including the sketchy-at-best claim of "up to 13,000 jobs created."

Wait, you mean to tell me that the Milwaukee suburbs and Racine/Kenosha, which have gotten nothing but pro-Foxconn propaganda in the local TV news and AM radio, back the Fox-con? SHOCKER!

Take those Bubble Worlders (who approve of the Fox-con by 52-40) out of the equation, and the Fox-con is overwhelmingly seen as more costly than it is worth. To the tune of 32% approval and 53% disapproval. , and no better than 37% ANYWHERE outside of the 262.

On a related note...

Congressman Mark Pocan sure noticed it.

Sure seems like Dems should play a little "divide and conquer" of their own against Walker and all the outstate GOPs that voted for the Fox-con (HINT!)

So while the Marquette Law Poll indicates there is not yet an obvious Blue Wave in Wisconsin for 2018, you can see how close we are to,having it develop. If pro-Dem groups of voters match their enthusiasm with actual increases turnout, and if some voters actually decide on issues like the Fox-con instead of pushing the "magic R", Scott Walker and WISGOP are going to have a hard time staying in power.


  1. Why is 920 so bad? Easy answer- We dont get news in this region. ALL of our state news comes from local television media. None of them have a Madison reporter or even know where Madison is. This allows most of what the Republicans are doing to go unnoticed. In addition, Walker comes up here and masterfully plays the media every time any business hires a single employee.

    1. You are not the first person to talk about the media blackout of news on state government in outstate Wisconsin. And Gannett taking over the papers in GB, Appleton and Oshkosh is a big reason for that problem.

      Add in that the Packers get 20 minutes of coverage on,the nightly news, and it's little wonder why the average 920 resident doesn't have a clue about what is happening.

      This must be changed.