Tuesday, March 13, 2012

Walker's Wisconsin still No. 1. For the last 12 months!

I was waiting for today's Bureau of Labor Statistics' report of unemployment by states, and it confirmed what I figured it might when last week's brutal 2011 revisions were revealed. Wisconsin is still Number 1 in America during the age of Fitzwalkerstan, and it ain't even close!

Biggest job losses Jan. 2011 - Jan. 2012
Wisconsin -12,500
Missouri -4,100
Miss'sippi -2,900
Alabama -1,900
Rhode Isl. -1,300

And the BLS also took notice, giving us a special place in the report.
The largest over-the-year percentage increase occured in North Dakota (+5.7 percent), followed by Texas and Utah (+2.5 percent each). The largest over-the-year percentage decrease in employment occurred in Wisconsin (-0.5 percent), followed by Alaska, Mississippi, and Rhode Island (-0.3 percent each).

Now, in Scott Walker's defense, we are up to 47th when it comes to private sector job growth (900 whole jobs!) in the last year, so let's not come down too rough on Governor Dropout (we beat Mississippi, Rhode Island and Alaska). But it certainly does mean we horribly lag our Midwestern neighbors, who have thrived during the Obama Recovery.

Midwest job growth, all jobs Jan. 2011 - Jan. 2012
Ohio +62,500
Mich +61.700
Ind. +38,700
Ill. +29,200
Minn +25,800
Iowa +9,200
Wis. -12,500

Midwest job growth, private sector Jan. 2011 - Jan. 2012
Mich +72,300
Ohio +69,200
Ind. +41,800
Ill. +40,100
Minn +33,200
Iowa +13,200
Wis. +900

Naturally, the Dems in Wisconsin jumped all over this new evidence of Walker's failures, with releases from Peter Barca and the DPW, among others. So what did Walker's folks do? Doubled down on the "it's working" theme, with more absurd spin from our buddy, DWD Secretary Reggie Newson. I'll take this release apart in pieces
Representative Barca needs to get beyond his shortsighted view and look at the picture, starting with the loss of nearly 150,000 jobs during the three years before Governor Walker took office. In 2011, Governor Walker and his partners in the Legislature took action to stabilize our state's economy and set the stage for job growth.
How convenient of Reg to mention the job losses in Wisconsin starting in 2008 without mentioning that the U.S. lost more than 7.5 million jobs in the same period. You think the Bush Depression/Wall Street meltdown might have had a little to do with the job losses in the state at the time? And it also conveniently forgets that the Wisconsin's economy actually stabilized in 2010, and grew by more than 50,000 private sector jobs in the 12 months before Scott Walker took over. Lies by omission are still lies, Reggie.
Wisconsin's unemployment rate has fallen to its lowest point since 2008, and some 11,700 more Wisconsinites were employed year-over-year as of January 2012 according to the latest BLS data.
First of all, Reggie switches to the household survey that gives the unemployment rate, not the place-of-work report that gives non-farm payrolls. Very cynical, but nowhere near as cynical as crediting Walker policies with lowering the unemployment rate to 2008 levels. As I pointed out last week, more than half of the drop in the unemployment rate under Walker is because of 15,000 people leaving the Wisconsin work force, and has NOTHING to do with job growth. In fact, if Wisconsin had grown its labor force the same as Minnesota or Illinois last year, its unemployment would be barely changed at 7.6%, and if it grew like Indiana, we'd be up to 8.5%! So the 6.9% unemployment rate isn't a sign of Walker success as much as it is his failures in driving people into retirement and out of the state. Now, onto the last part of that paragraph.
The drop in our state's unemployment rate, the drop in new Unemployment Insurance claims, and the increase in state sales and withholding tax collections last year are all indicators of economic growth that bode well for our state.

More lies by omission. The drop in unemployment claims has little to do with Walker, and everything to do with the general growth in America, as the rest of the country is lowering UE claims as fast or faster than Wisconsin is, as the upward slope in red indicates.
As for the "increase in sales and withholding taxes," notice that Newson says last year , when revenues stayed somewhat steady, but ignores this year, which had drops in January income and corporate taxes that lowered revenues enough to convince the LFB to project a $208 million budget deficit.

So regardless of what Walker's DWD wants to say, there isn't another way to spin these numbers today. It further confirms the absolute failure of Walker's austerity and Robin-Hood-in-Reverse policies, and it has set Wisconsin well behind much of the rest of a national economy that seems to be picking up steam. And given that the seasonal adjustments that helped Walker's numbers in the last few months will be going away, and more people will enter the work force at some point, it's a good bet that Wisconsin might look even worse than the the Midwest and the rest of America by the time the recall elections roll around in 13 weeks.

2 comments:

  1. Good information. Leave as much of the heated language out of it and you'd have a more convincing piece. "Obama recovery" and "Governor Dropout" will do nothing but turn off or anger readers who tend to support Walker. Stick to the facts and you might change more of their minds.

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  2. I disagree Mike. Tough truths sometimes need to hurt. Sure, my language can be harsh, but if you're still foolish enough to support Scott Walker, and you can't see the disaster that this administration is, then you deserve to be slapped into attention. That's why I intentionally call it the "Obama Recovery", because it sticks the knife in on people who refuse to admit the reality that the U.S. economy has been bouncing back.

    I really don't care that what I write might offend someone's precious feelings. This isn't a friendly HS debate in government class, this is REAL. But thanks for reading and thanks for commenting.

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