Monday, August 19, 2013

Back in the 40s

Had a feeling this would happen when I saw last week's job numbers, but got it confirmed with today's release of the state-by-state employment numbers from the BLS. After a couple of seasonally-affected bumps in May and June, Wisconsin's mediocre July report means that it is sliding back down toward the rear of the pack when it comes to jobs created over the last 12 months.

Wisconsin's 2,000 job gain in July (1,800 in the private sector) was the lowest in the Midwest, and it 6th out of 7 in the region when it comes to job growth in the last 2 months, regardless of what measure you use.

Midwest job growth, all jobs July 2012-July 2013
Mich +70,300
Ill. +55,500
Minn +55,000
Ind. +54,800
Ohio +37,700
Wis. +25,800
Iowa +25,600

Midwest job growth %, all jobs July 2012-July 2013
Minn +2.02%
Ind. +1.89%
Mich. +1.73%
Iowa +1.69%
Ill. +0.97%
Wis. +0.93%
Ohio +0.73%

Midwest job growth %, private sector, July 2012- July 2013
Iowa +2.14%
Mich +2.02%
Ind. +2.01%
Minn +1.91%
Ill. +1.26%
Wis. +1.18%
Ohio +1.06%

Not good any way you slice it. And this sucky performance also shows up in the nationwide stats for jobs over the last year, as Wisconsin is back in the 40s when it comes to job growth.

U.S. job growth %, July 2012- July 2013, all jobs
38. Ill +0.97%
39. Bama +0.95%
40. Wis. +0.93%
41. N.Y. +0.90%
42. Wyo. +0.90%
43. W.Va +0.84%

U.S. job growth %, July 2012- July 2013, pvt. sector
40. Ill +1.26%
41. N.Y. +1.26%
42. Bama +1.25%
43. Wis. +1.18%
44. Ohio +1.06%
45. Neb. +0.95%
46. Penn +0.79%

So what was our fair guv doing today in light of these bad numbers? Going out to NYC to be on MSNBC's "Morning Joe", of course! And naturally, he gave a self-promoting statement that had no connection to reality.
On a federal level, Republicans are known as the “party of no,” but on a state level Walker says Republicans are a party of optimism, relevance, and courage.

“We’re more optimistic than our friends in Washington. We’re not just against something, we’re laying out a plan, laying out a vision,” Walker said. “That’s how you lead.”
The stats show that the only place Scott Walker is leading the state is straight off a cliff. And no real leader would be using his palace guards to arrest fire fighters in uniform, like Scotty's Capitol Police did today.

This guy's such a paper tiger. Time to start poking a whole lotta holes in him. C'mon DPW, run some ads and TELL PEOPLE THE FACTS. NOW.


  1. Just for context, national total jobs growth July 2012 - July 2013 was 1.70% and in the private sector, 2.07%.

    In the 31 months of data we have for Walker's term Wisconsin's annual growth rates for total and private jobs have never once been that high.

  2. The job numbers released on Friday from Walker's jobs agency was March to March, correct?

    Does this BLS report include July based on QCEW numbers or CES?

    When will we find out the rankings based on the latest QCEW numbers?


    1. There were two releases on Thursday by Walker's Department of Workforce Development: the QCEW pre-release for March 2013 and the monthly CES/LAUS (CPS) for July 2013.

      The BLS will release March 2013 QCEW figures for all states on Thursday, September 26th so we'll be able to work out rankings then (with our numbers we're likely to be close to 40th for private sector job growth).


      Going through the BLS LAUS report that Jake linked in the article, it seems that we have hit a new ignominious milestone buried in these press releases: Wisconsin's unemployment rate is no longer statistically significantly less than the nation's (table A, June report vs July report). That hasn't happened for four years.

  3. Anyone have the time or talent- not me- to research a rebuttal to the tiring "Governor Walker has produced more jobs in the last two-years than any Governor in the history of Wisconsin (maybe even the world!!!)". I don't think that is a true statement. Thought Doyle had better segmented performance?

    1. There are several two-year claims from the DWD release.

      The one most pertinent to his 250k promise is "The private sector job gains under Governor Walker are the best two-year gains under any Governor in over a decade". This is false.

      December 2010 - December 2012 Wisconsin added 62,272 private sector jobs.

      August 2003 - August 2005 Wisconsin added 67,462.

      The December 2012 figures are still subject to revision, but quarterly figures don't usually change by the amount required to fill the gap.

      Some of the related claims are true, such as "Based on annual average, Wisconsin’s two-year, total job growth was the best in over a decade" - the difference between the 2010 average and 2012 average was 59,704, edging out the change from the 2003 average to the 2005 average of 56,088.

  4. GT
    Thank you. The other asterisk here is the fact that Gov Doyle and Gov Walker are the ONLY Governors in the "last decade". I am very disappointed at the 25,800 jobs in the last twelve months. Times 4 years would be barely over 100,000. Looks like we are supposed to celebrate tepid as our new standard.
    We can do better.

    1. 2,000 jobs a month isn't sh*t when you realize the state should be gaining around 4,000 a month, if we were keeping up with the US pace. In fact, it makes the argument that Walker and WisGOP policies are holding the state back instead of leading to prosperity