Thursday, April 17, 2014

Quick March jobs analysis

Today's Wisconsin jobs report in a nutshell.

Jobs up 6,400 in private sector for March.

BUT jobs revised DOWN 3,700 in February, which means net is +2,700 jobs, which is below the national rate, and the Walker jobs gap grows by another 1,000.

And only 900 private sector jobs added for the first 3 months of 2014. Flat-out awful.

BUT household survey shows 21,500 more Wisconsinites are working, which is how the unemployment rate can fall from. 6.3% to 5.9% in those 3 months.

Which means either pretty much every job a Wisconsinite got since the start of the year was in the Twin Cities or Chicago, or one of these surveys are wrong.

I'll have more analysis when I have the time, but them's the numbers.


  1. And what has the Flagship WEDC done? Nothing to speak about, This is the real situation in WI.

  2. Here's the Real story in WI, In relation to UI,

  3. Or the agricultural or public sectors.

    For the first three months of this year, as you say, the total jobs (CES) have been +300 and employment (CPS) +21,432.

    I've mentioned before how the CES estimates for 2013Q4 performance seem unreasonably high (+24,300). I suggest the last 3 months' disparity between the two surveys is most likely due to a return to normal from the December 2013 overestimate.

    September 2013 - March 2014, CES shows +24,600 and CPS shows +32,442. Not so different.

    Also worth noting with the March report is that the asking rate to achieve 250,000 jobs by December now exceeds this century's record one-month gain (+14,400, set in September 2003).