Craig Gilbert had a good rundown of the current results in the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel, noting that Hagedorn owes much of his victory to the land above Highway 10, which turned hard back toward the right after Dallet was successful there in 2018.
In the 18-county Green Bay media market in northeast Wisconsin, the swing in the margin was 18 points, according to incomplete returns, from a conservative deficit of more than 3 points last year to a conservative lead of roughly 15 points this time. In the 11-county Wausau media market in north central Wisconsin, the swing in the court margin was 17 points, from a conservative deficit of 3 points in 2018 to an advantage of 14 points this time. Those two regions, which happen to be areas where Republican Donald Trump performed well in 2016, also saw some of the state’s biggest turnout increases over April of 2018 (A late pro-Hagedorn TV blitz invoked Trump in this race).
If people is those orange parts of the state want to vote for a guy who’d be perfectly fine with fields and streams being poisoned with waste from CAFOs and industrial sites, and if they are cool with homophobic hate and protecting Trump, then should you still help them with your tourism dollars this Summer? That's kind of my thought today.
Another disappointment is that despite some glimmers of hope in November’s election, the WOW Counties around Milwaukee are still right-wing cesspools at heart.
The key GOP suburban counties of Waukesha, Washington and Ozaukee performed well for Hagedorn, turning out at much higher rates than in the court race a year ago and producing bigger conservative margins. Hagedorn won 75% of the vote in Washington and 69% in Waukesha.By comparison, Neubauer actually exceeded Dallett’s numbers in her strongest county.
It took that kind of performance in northern Wisconsin and the Green Bay region for Hagedorn to overcome another huge liberal landslide in the area around Madison, the Democratic bastion of Dane County. Dane actually delivered a bigger raw vote margin for Neubauer (more than 88,000 votes) than it did for the winning Dallet in 2018 (82,512). To put that in perspective, that was almost the same vote margin Democrat John Kerry got from Dane County in his 2004 presidential race, when turnout statewide was almost three times higher than in this judicial race.But even then, it’s worthy to note that despite a mayoral race in Madison, turnout for this Supreme Court race in the city was down more than 11,000 from the Prosser-Kloppenburg and Soglin-Cieselewicz races of 2011 that happened in the wake of Act 10, and county turnout was down by more than 30,000 from 2011 (although interestingly, Neubauer won Dane county by more than Kloppenburg did).
Maybe interest would have been higher in Madison if someone other than this guy was running for Mayor (and getting drilled by 24 points).
With three hours until the polls close, Mayor @Paulsoglin has taken his campaign to the streets. #MadisonMayor pic.twitter.com/GYysuWsmaw
— Dylan Brogan (@telldylan) April 2, 2019
After Tony Evers received a big boost from college students and Milwaukee residents to win the Governor's race 5 months ago, Neubauer didn’t get anything near that type of turnout, which kept down margins in those two large, pro-Dem constituencies. I’ll use Madison’s 13 wards around the UW campus as an example, in this case
UW-Madison campus-area wards
Nov 2018 Evers 14,372, Walker 3,641 (79.8%-20.2% of 2-party share)
April 2019 Neubauer 5,508, Hagedorn 783 (87.7%-12.3%)
Margin Nov 2018 Evers +10,731
Margin April 2019 Neubauer +4,725 (-6,006 vs Evers)
City of Milwaukee
Nov 2018 Evers 167,350, Walker 42,264 (79.8%-20.2% as well!)
April 2019 Neubauer 49,786, Hagedorn 18,289 (73.1%-26.9%)
Margin Nov 2018 Evers +125,086
Margin April 2019 Neubauer +30,497 (-94,589 vs Evers)
Even getting half the voters that those 2 areas had in November to turn out gives the race to Neubauer. Much like how low turnout in the City of Milwaukee sunk another milquetoast Boomer woman that was expected to beat a hateful GOP man in Wisconsin – Hillary Clinton in 2016. And it also has a lesson behind it - Dems and progressives must run powerful, values-based candidates and campaigns that don't smugly assume any race is ever over, and makes Wisconsinites have to face up to the horribleness that the Age of Fitzwalkerstan has caused to this state.
The bottom line is that the scared, fascist side of WisGOPs and other Trumpkins viewed the Supreme Court election as a fight to keep themselves in power and as some kind of referendum of “faith” (these guys’ favorite holiday has always been Good Friday). And it sends a dangerous and disturbing message that hate, fear and bigotry are GOP vote-activators that can help their chances of winning.
By comparison, far too many Dems and everyday people viewed the Supreme Court race casually, and wasn't worth the attention that the November elections got. But it did matter, and if a recount doesn’t discover major NC 9-style ballot box stuffing from GOPs (a possibility given this amoral crew, which is why Neubauer should do it), then we’re going to be stuck with a regressive bigot like Hagedorn for the next 10 years. Which means regressives would likely be in control of the court throughout Evers’ first term.
I’m disgusted on multiple fronts from the Supreme Court election. But instead of moping, it just makes me more determined to help deliver the crushings that this Koched-up group of WisGOP scum has had coming to it for a long time. These selfish, resentful jerks cannot be allowed to wreck it for the rest of us any longer.
This is what I’d been fearing since, well, November. Tony Evers’ upset of Scott Walker, Josh Kaul’s come-from-behind victory over Brad Schimel, Democrats taking the U.S. House and Milwaukee’s winning of the 2020 Democratic National Convention all spelled conservative outrage and progressive complacency. You make a good point about the Hillary Clinton-like assumption that Neubauer was sure to win because her opponent was off-the-charts reprehensible. Haven’t people figured out that being an overt bigot is actually a “plus” to conservatives?
ReplyDeleteYou’re also right about not getting too down about this, as disgusting as it may be. We need to keep our eyes on the biggest prizes of all: winning the Presidency and the U.S. Senate in 2020. If we can do that, I’ll be so happy that I may just overlook the very real possibility that—with a Democratic President, Senate, House, and Tammy Baldwin still in office—conservative outrage and progressive complacency will kick in again and the aforementioned Mr. Walker will be elected to Ron Johnson’s Senate seat. (Oh my god, who am I kidding?? NOTHING could make me happy enough to overlook that!)
"Those two regions, which happen to be areas where Republican Donald Trump performed well in 2016, also saw some of the state’s biggest turnout increases over April of 2018"
ReplyDeleteGiven the recent shenanigans in North Carolina I hope that someone is taking a hard look at the early and absentee ballots in these rural regions that have mysteriously over-performed with respect to last year. Maybe it's nothing. Maybe that last minute dark money TV blitz was the kind that makes voters drop everything and rush to the polls, with success rate that every political consultant dreams of, and promises, and just about never delivers. But first I'd like to see the overall turnout and voting patterns, check for under votes, and hear a good sample of early and absentee voters confirm that they requested and filled out ballots.
Voter ID, perhaps intentionally, does nothing to prevent NC-style ballot box stuffing, and I would put nothing past the WisGOPs at this point. They are only a year or two behind the NC-GOPs in facing the consequences of their previous political overreach.
Oh, I'm not sure they're a year or two behind. I found it very interesting that Walker did 10 points better than Vukmir in the same election last November. And in my early look at the numbers, in many areas Neubauer had as many if not a few more votes than Dallett, while Hagedorn had a LOT more votes than Screnock. It was all turnout, which means either GOPs hit the right triggers, or there's something fishy here.
DeleteWorth noting, recounts also allow the absentee ballots and envelopes to be matched up, which is what tripped up the GOP in NC9. Neubauer should absolutely give it a look, just to make sure. And Walker and other WisGOPs telling her to concede is another reason (why are they worried about what a recount will find?)