Without regular data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and other government agencies, we have to look at other data for information on how the US jobs market looks. And we got
a bit of news on Thursday that indicated things had taken a downward turn.
Last month was the worst October for layoff announcements since 2003 as companies slashed roles to save money, pared back pandemic-era hires, and planned ahead for artificial intelligence, according to the global outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas.
Employers announced 153,074 cuts last month, compared to 55,597 cuts in October 2024. Last month’s figure was “the highest total for October in over 20 years, and the highest total for a single month in the fourth quarter since 2008,” Andy Challenger, chief revenue officer for Challenger, Gray & Christmas, said in a report Thursday.
Altogether, US firms announced the end of 1,099,500 positions through the first 10 months of this year, up 44% from the 761,358 cuts seen for the entirety of 2024. Technology businesses led private-sector layoffs.
“October’s pace of job cutting was much higher than average for the month,” Challenger said in a statement.
“Some industries are correcting after the hiring boom of the pandemic, but this comes as AI adoption, softening consumer and corporate spending, and rising costs drive belt-tightening and hiring freezes,” he continued. “Those laid off now are finding it harder to quickly secure new roles, which could further loosen the labor market.”
That's not good at all, although I'll note that those are jobs ANNOUNCEMENTS, which means the actual job losses will come later, so we wouldn't be seeing that show up in unemployment claims or the unemployment rate for a few months.
The report on added layoffs came one day after
some positive jobs news from one of the only other sources of jobs market news during the Federal government shutdown.
Private-sector job creation bounced back in October, according to a snapshot of the labor market that has become more closely watched in the absence of official federal jobs data.
Payroll processing company ADP on Wednesday estimated that private-sector businesses added an estimated 42,000 jobs last month, a swing into positive territory after back-to-back months of job losses.
While October marked a return to job growth, ADP’s chief economist cautioned that the pace of hiring is running far slower than earlier this year and far more concentrated in a few sectors….
The largest job gains were spread across industries such as trade, transportation and utilities (+47,000 jobs); education and health services (+26,000); and financial activities (+11,000), ADP reported.
Those posting the biggest job losses were information (17,000 jobs lost), professional and business services (15,000 jobs lost), and leisure and hospitality (6,000 jobs lost).
Yes, the 42,000 gain makes up for the losses in the previuous 2 months, but as you can see, 2025 has seen private job growth slow to near zero after increases in the previous 2 years.
What's worth mentioning along with ADP's small gain in private sector jobs in October is that if we had a regular jobs report tomorrow, we'd see the full effect of
DOGE's deferred resignation program for federal employees. Between 100,000 and 150,000 workers chose to leave federal service, but were still receiving pay through the end of the Federal Fiscal Year on September 30, which means they would not show up as "unemployed" in the official numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics until October's report.
Put those public sector losses together with other reported job info, and UW-Madison's Menzie Chinn projects that October's jobs report would have shown a notable decline in payroll numbers, if we would have had a report coming out.
Maybe that's another reason Trump/GOP seems to be OK with doing nothing to end the shutdown. It doesn't just keep the Epstein files under wraps, it also has allowed for the last two months of subpar jobs reports to be hidden from the public as well.
No comments:
Post a Comment