Monday, December 26, 2011

Wisconsin economy worst in lower 48- and worse than we thought

Happy post-Holidays everybody. I hope Santa and the others treated you well this weekend.

Several items have broken around the holidays, and like most people, our media was tied up with holiday items to give you the full update. So here's one such item.

You may recall a post I had in the previous month quoting the Philly Fed survey's finding that Wisconsin had the worst economic performance in America from August to October. Well, the Philly Fed came back at the end of last week with its November update, and here's the picture to follow.

While Wisconsin isn't in the bright red anymore but has dropped down to the less severe pink, that change in color really doesn't show any improvement. Instead it reflects lower revisions for five straight months from May to September.

Wisconsin 3-month coincident index, previous vs. revised
May 2011- 138.00 original, 137.91 revised (-0.09)
June 2011- 138.18 original, 138.06 revised (-0.12)
July 2011- 138.19 original, 138.06 revised (-0.13)
Aug. 2011- 138.03 original, 137.91 revised (-0.12)
Sept 2011- 137.74 original, 137.66 revised (-0.08)
Oct. 2011- 137.40 original, 137.41 revised (+0.01)
Nov. 2011- 137.23

So with the revisions, the July-October drop is now 0.47%, and the August- November drop is 0.49%. It means the previous month would not have had that bright red that stood out so clearly, but also means that the decline is worse now than last month, not better, despite what the maps show.

And Wisconsin is still bottom feeding compared to the rest of the nation, and remains the worst-performing state in the lower 48.

July-October 2011
Alaska -0.58%
Wisc. -0.47%
Ind. -0.30%
Wyo. -0.22%

August- November 2011
Alaska -0.60%
Wisc. -0.493%
Minn. -0.490%
Wyo. -0.26%

So no, Governor, we are not better off than we were a year ago, or than we were before your budget was signed in June. You'd better hope Santa made a lot of debt-ridden deliveries this week, or else it isn't going to look good anytime soon, either.

1 comment:

  1. Jake, may I repost some of your graphs on Facebook? Also, would you be OK with some of them appearing on a Recall Walker FB and/or web site? I've been creating my own graphs with BLS and Wisc DWD stats, but yours with Wisc vs USA data are perfect for what I want to show next. Linea Sundstrom