Monday, August 17, 2020

COVID-19 cases down in Wisconsin. But it's not down everywhere, and school is starting soon

Wanted to give a weekly update on COVID-19 infections in Wisconsin. On the surface, it looks like things are starting to go in the right direction, as we had a 4th straight weekly decline in cases, and deaths also went down for a second straight week,



Both numbers are still higher than they were at the start of July, but perhaps the state's mask mandate is starting to help get things in check compared to what it looked like at the end that month .

But the bad news is that the number of Wisconsinites getting COVID-19 tests went down significantly last week, and the rate of positive tests went back up to nearly 7%.



However, that decline does not necessarily mean that there are fewer COVID-19 tests being administered in Wisconsin, as Jermamey Jannene recently explained in Urban Milwaukee.
The daily report filters out people who are hospitalized patients that are being frequently retested, people receiving multiple tests because of concerns with symptoms, non-Wisconsin residents and people visiting one of the community testing sites multiple times with the same result.

Simply put, the number of processed tests reported every day by DHS undercounts the number of tests actually performed in the state.

A new, interactive chart added to the state’s COVID-19 dashboard attempts to close the data gap, showing the number of tests completed versus the reported lab capacity....

On multiple days in each of the past five weeks labs across the state have processed over 20,000 tests combined, while DHS has never reported a figure over 18,138. The result is a state that is much closer to using its reported daily testing capacity of approximately 24,000 than previously thought.
Perhaps this reflects more Wisconsinites deciding not to be tested if they are not showing COVID-19 symptoms, but it is still concerning that the percentage of positive tests increased last week.

Drilling down to the county level, the 3 largest counties in the state all had fewer new cases last week, with Milwaukee's decline being especially impressive in recent weeks, and Dane County staying at the reduced levels they reached 4 weeks ago.



That being said, you can see that Waukesha County's numbers are still nearly twice what we have in Dane County. And some places are going the wrong way, including the next two counties up Highway 41 from Waukesha (Washington and Fond du Lac). The next two counties up 41 had declines in the last week, but are still getting new cases at a much higher rate than they were in early July.


And the biggest per-capita breakouts of COVID have mostly been in the state's Northern counties, as this map from last week shows.


Know what all 8 of those "top" counties have in common? They all voted for Donald Trump in 2016 and Scott Walker in 2018. Why does that seem relevant?



And the earliest adopters of mask mandates? Dane County and the City of Milwaukee, who have seen their new case numbers cut in half from their peaks in July. (Shrug)

While it feels like we've at least kept the pandemic from running out of control in recent weeks, school starts in 2 weeks and I'm already starting to see some of the college students coming back to Madison. This next month seems crucial for seeing if this state can start to get back to anything resembling the pre-COVID normal, or if COVID resurges yet again and makes for a gloomy and scary Fall.

3 comments:

  1. Just returned from vacation in the Republican stranglehold counties of Waupaca & Shawano. The rapidly increasing cases of both of these counties are no surprise to me as FEW, probably less than 5% residents are complying with Gov. Evers' statewide mask mandate.

    In Shawano County especially, anyone wearing a mask is being targeted by the local yokels as "disrespecting President Trump". You cannot make this stuff up-or overstate the STUPIDITY of these bumpkins. I was in 2 Shawano restaurants last week where local RepubliTHUGS were bullying mask wearers to take off that mask or they would remove it for you. In Shawano County, people who try to protect themselves by wearing a mask, only to be bullied to remove the mask, get no support from law enforcement as Shawano County Sheriff has publicly stated that his deputies will not enforce the mask laws. Local yokels have taken his words to mean that they will face no consequences for bullying or even assaulting mask wearers who refuse to take off their masks when ordered to do so. No wonder Covid19 cases are exploding in these heavily Republican counties.

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  2. The self-centeredness and mental weakness of people over the last few years is one of the worst things about this era. Those dopes really believe it won't happen to them.

    If some place was having some trash-Bagger Sheriff say he wasn't going to enforce a mask mandate, I wouldn't spend a dime there, or a minute outside of my car. They don't deserve my money.

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  3. Totally agree with you. This was our family's last vacation to Shawano County. We sold our cottage this summer and will be vacationing in counties that aren't filled with Covid-idiots and law "enforcement" that doesn't enforce outright assaults on people who want to wear a mask to protect themselves.

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