Services economy still growing for June, but so were prices.

It seems like the overall US economy was OK as the first half of 2026 ended. The Institute for Supply Management says that services were growing at a decent clip in June, with new orders still being added, and even employment was reported to be up after 3 months of declines.

“Economic activity in the services sector continued to expand in June, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the latest ISM® Services PMI® Report. The Services PMI® registered 54 percent, the 24th consecutive month in expansion territory.

The report was issued today by Steve Miller, CPSM, CSCP, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Services Business Survey Committee: In June, the Services PMI® registered 54 percent, a decrease of 0.5 percentage point compared to May’s figure of 54.5 percent. The Business Activity Index remained in expansion territory in June, decreasing 2.3 percentage points to 55.4 percent from May’s reading of 57.7 percent. The New Orders Index registered 55.1 percent, 2.2 percentage points below May’s figure of 57.3 percent. The Employment Index expanded for the first time in four months with a reading of 51.2 percent, a 3.3-percentage point increase from the 47.9 percent recorded in May. All of the four subindexes that make up the composite PMI® were above their 12-month moving averages,” says Miller.

“The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 54.4 percent, 0.8 percentage point lower than the 55.2 percent recorded in May. This is the 19th consecutive month that the index has been in expansion territory, indicating slower supplier delivery performance. (Supplier Deliveries is the only ISM® PMI® Reports index that is inversed; a reading of above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries, which is typical as the economy improves and customer demand increases.)

But check out this segment of the ISM report, where they ask the managers about what’s happening with prices in these industries.

And I noticed this comment from someone in Accomodation and Food Services.

“We continue to experience higher prices due to the Persian Gulf conflict through rising diesel fuel costs and increased input costs for resin-based packaging. The brunt of the impact will be experienced in the third quarter (Q3) of 2026, but we are feeling the impact now. Suppliers are aggressively attempting to pass through price increases.”

Then there’s this comment from someone in Wholesale Tade.

“We are experiencing continued sequential top-line growth driven mostly by increased prices.”

Which means they’ve been able to pass higher prices onto the stores, and the stores are likely passing it on to their customers.

So don’t count on consumers getting a price break on anything beyond what we’ve seen at the pump in the last month – and even with the recent declines, we’re still paying 20% more for regular gasoline than we were this time last year. And since we aren’t seeing major job cutbacks with the higher prices, there is no reason for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates any time soon – if anything, they should be raising them.

Oh, and now Trump says war is back ON in Iran, oil futures are up 9% in the last 2 days and and probably headed higher than that. So don't expect inflation to be coming down any time soon, and in an honest world, rate hikes from the Fed are seeming more likely than not for this year.

That doesn't seem like a winning situation at all for the second half of 2026, does it?

Oil and gas prices falling in the last month. But it doesn't add up as to why.

Good news from this week, everybody! There should be more oil coming onto the market from overseas soon.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies including Russia agreed on Sunday to further increase output targets by 188,000 barrels per day from August, on top of similar increases ​for ​June and July.

However, the increase has remained largely on paper ​because of the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, ‌which closed the strait to tanker traffic for key OPEC producers, including Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Iraq, capping their output….

Gulf oil exports in June jumped more than 3 million barrels from May to exceed 10 million barrels per day, although volume remained ‌40% below pre-war levels, data showed.

"We now expect global oil ​demand to contract by 1.5 million barrels per day in 2026, ​reflecting a sharper-than-expected downturn in Q2, when ​year-on-year declines could reach 4 million bpd based on preliminary data," ANZ said.

"However, we ‌expect demand losses to moderate in the second ​half of the year as ​supply improves and some deferred consumption returns," the bank added.

But that oil has yet to be refined and put on the gasoline market. So I am still confused as to why gas prices have been falling back much faster than they did when it spiked up to $5 a gallon in 2022.

But even though gas prices are $1 a gallon less than it was 4 years ago, according to the US Energy Information Administration, gasoline is less plentiful now in America than it was in 2022.

And sure, we’re pumping out more oil than we were at this time four years ago, but it’s not all that much more than what US oil field production was by early 2024, and is less than a million barrels a day more than what we were pumping pre-COVID

And worse is that the nation’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) is the lowest it has been in 43 years, with the SPR consistently going down by 6 to 7 million barrels a week for the last 4 months.

So with less supply of oil and gasoline around, why had pump prices and oil futures dropped so much by the 4th of July? It’s not based on actual supply and demand, at least not yet.

Something is off here, and it feels like some other shoe is going to drop sooner than later. Maybe this results in a massive glut coming onto the market and depressing prices, or as 24/7 Wall Street brings up, maybe oil gets taken off the market in order to re-fill the SPR, which would leave oil/gas higher as they otherwise would have been.

Then again, maybe that whole "more oil coming out of the Middle East" optimism of the last month gets reversed due to events.

WASHINGTON (AP) — US military says it's launching strikes on Iran following Tehran's attacks on commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz. @apnews.com

— Carl Quintanilla (@carlquintanilla.bsky.social) July 7, 2026 at 4:33 PM

And the oil markets acted accordingly.

Oil prices jumped to their highest level since June 25 on Tuesday after the U.S. revoked a temporary sanctions waiver that had allowed the sale of Iranian oil on the global market.

The Trump administration took the action after unknown projectiles hit multiple tankers near the Strait of Hormuz.

In late afternoon trading, U.S. crude oil rose more than 5%, to more than $72 per barrel. International Brent crude oil also rose 5.3%, to more than $75 per barrel.

Here we go again?

A few 250th birthday thoughts

What are we celebrating today? It's the release of these words, and the Declaration that we were going to break away from the crazy overlord of our land.

From UW-Madison Political Science professor Barry Burden.

He has refused his Assent to Laws, the most wholesome and necessary for the public good.

— Barry Burden (@bcburden.bsky.social) July 4, 2026 at 8:32 AM

He has obstructed the Administration of Justice, by refusing his Assent to Laws for establishing Judiciary powers.

— Barry Burden (@bcburden.bsky.social) July 4, 2026 at 8:32 AM

He has endeavoured to prevent the population of these States; for that purpose obstructing the Laws for Naturalization of Foreigners; refusing to pass others to encourage their migrations hither, and raising the conditions of new Appropriations of Lands.

— Barry Burden (@bcburden.bsky.social) July 4, 2026 at 8:32 AM

He has erected a multitude of New Offices, and sent hither swarms of Officers to harrass our people, and eat out their substance.

— Barry Burden (@bcburden.bsky.social) July 4, 2026 at 8:32 AM

A Prince, whose character is thus marked by every act which may define a Tyrant, is unfit to be the ruler of a free people.

— Barry Burden (@bcburden.bsky.social) July 4, 2026 at 8:32 AM

And yet we have to take it in 2026, more than 1776, because the people who are imposing these bad things aren't mostly from thousands of miles away, but instead live inside our state and country borders (if not our communities) and inside the corporate board rooms that control much of the "information" that people consume.

We can do a lot better than this, and we are the majority that know we deserve much more than what we've had to accept for the last decade-plus. It's telling to me that local community celebrations in Summer 2026 are much better attended and come with a better vibe than the emotionallly stunted, pathetic stuff we are seeing in DC.

It's true, Axios. The biggest issue facing us is that Donald Trump is currently president and it's making everyone miserable

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— Subscribe to Radio Free America (link in bio) (@kleinman.bsky.social) July 4, 2026 at 9:47 AM

We need to clear the clouds that are hanging over this country. And sure, midterms 2026 are a big part of it to show the reversal in direction. But the screw-ups of the last decade are going to need a lot of time and work to clean up from. But it's gotta start from some point, and because of the money power on the other side, you gotta have to work harder than we should just to get it back to even.

But have fun in the middle of all this work, because the MAGAts also want us to be as miserable as they are. When we aren't fearful and aren't distracted by their small-ball idiocy, that means we're living better than them, no matter what their alleged status says.

As sad and scary as it is to see a terror organization march in the open, it’s also a parade of men who are doing this today instead of enjoying a hot dog and a cold beer with loved ones because they’re weird angry losers.

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— Amos Posner (@amosposner.bsky.social) July 4, 2026 at 11:39 AM

good morning, it is the fourth of july and the worst people alive are currently running the country fuck them, we're going to win because this place can and will be better than they are

— Micah (@rincewind.run) July 4, 2026 at 11:05 AM

We ARE better than them, and we ARE the Real America. I can't stand it that my country and my state to be run by a bunch of failsons, big fish in small ponds, basement-dwelling dweebs, and people who peaked in high school and never evolved. That's not the America I want, and it's not one that is interesting or moving ahead.

And being in an interesting, more joyful, multi-cultural country with actual chances of getting ahead and adjusting to reality instead of being stuck in old traditions and tactics that haven't gotten the job done? That's my More Perfect Union.

June jobs slow down, fewer Americans working overall, and wage growth still lame

Starting in February, not only had we seen prices go up at the gas pump, but US job growth had also gone up, as the Bureau of Labor Statistics had previously reported increases of 214,000 jobs in March, 179,000 in April, and 172,000 in May. So before the 4th of July weekend, many looked at Thursday's jobs report to see if that winning streak would continue in June.

Not so much.

The U.S. economy added just 57,000 jobs in June, a worrying sign for labor market stability as wage growth tracked below inflation for a third consecutive month.

In June, average hourly earnings increased by 3.5%, which remains far below the most recent inflation reading of 4.2%....

The report also included sharp revisions lower for prior months. Hiring in April was cut by 31,000 and May was revised down by 43,000.

So we ended up having 17,000 fewer jobs than what was reported a month ago. And it brings the 3 month gains down from the 2-year highs they were at in May.

Some of this seems to be a seasonal reversion where May had sizable increases in some sectors that hired up for the Summer in that month to get ahead of an early Memorial Day weekend, and then June didn't have as much hiring, leading to seasonally-adjusted "losses".

Seasonally adj job change, US May and June 2026
Leisure and Hospitality
May +40,000
June -61,000

Retail Trade
May +8,200
June -7,500

The 2-month average for job growth between May and June is 93,000 jobs overall and 73,000 in the private sector, and that seems to be a good number to look at for July's report to see if we have true slowing in the job market, or if we are still growing at a decent rate.

For the household survey, the US unemployment dropped form 4.3% to 4.2%, but it wasn't for a good reason, as both the labor force (-720,000) and the number of employed Americans (-503,000) went down by significant amounts in the June report. Some of that may also be seasonal reversion, but the overall trend has been clearly negative for more than a year.

This means the country's Employment-Population Ratio (of the number of Americans actually working) is down to 59.0%, which is the lowest non-pandemic level in 12 years.

Not a great sign for overall growth, and wage growth also continues to stagnate, with average hourly wages only up 0.3% overall and an even-worse 0.2% for non-supervisory workers. While inflation may go down in June due to the lower gas prices, having annual wage growth over in the mid-3% range likely means another 12-month period of falling real wages between June 2025 and June 2026.

The June jobs report doesn't show a recession, but it is a noteworthy slowdown from the strong growth in the 3 months before it. And the lack of wage growth may look good for companoies' profit-loss statements, but it's lousy for everyday people who do actual work.

Tom Tiffany approves of Wisconsin paying more for Medicaid, FoodShare, with less people insured

Every three months, the Wisconisn Department of Health Services releases an update on the state's Medicaid budget situation. And this week, we found out that our state is on track to need hundreds of millions of dollars to pay for Medicaid by this time next year.

As indicated in my March quarterly letter, across the country, payors and providers are experiencing a shifting healthcare landscape with costs increasing overall. While states’ Medicaid programs vary significantly, programs are facing growing budgetary challenges with approximately two-thirds of states predicting a high likelihood of budget shortfalls in the near term. Ongoing uncertainty around federal policy implementation and unpredictable economic conditions in the medium-term are further compounding these budget challenges.

The June projection reflects a continuation of trends identified in the March letter. Wisconsin Medicaid members need and are accessing essential healthcare services at a higher rate than assumed in the biennial budget. Most notably, the program is experiencing higher utilization in Family Care and other community-based long-term care, nursing home services, services for children with disabilities, prescription drugs, and safety net providers such as federally qualified health centers (FQHCs).

The Department projects Medicaid expenditures will exceed budget by $322.4 million GPR by the end of the biennium, which is 3.3% above budgeted GPR levels under 2025 Act 15, the 2025-27 biennial budget.

In a related note, Trump/GOP's Tax Scam 2.0 caused millions of Americans to not enroll in Obamacare in 2026.

Five million fewer people are currently enrolled in ACA marketplace plans compared to the record high reached last year. More than 1 million fewer people picked a plan for 2026, and then 4 million more either disenrolled or failed to pay their premiums and therefore dropped coverage.

Prices in the market skyrocketed after President Trump and Republicans in Congress failed to extend extra financial help for enrollees last year. The Department of Health and Human Services published a report about the data on its website Friday....

The steep drop in enrollment reflects what insurers, administrators, and other health policy experts expected earlier this year. After initial sign ups were lower than last year, they predicted that the picture would get worse as time went on and people found they could not afford to pay their premiums.

"The main takeaway is that enrollment is down 13% from last year," explains Cynthia Cox, director of KFF's Program on the ACA. "While the Trump administration attributes this drop in enrollment to their attempts to address fraud, this coverage loss happened at the same time millions of people faced double or even triple digit increases in their premium payments with the expiration of enhanced tax credits."

Wisconsin also had a loss of enrollment in ACA insurance for this year, as the recently released effectuated enrollment numbers from the US Department of Health and Human Services shows. As defined by DHHS,

Enrollment in the Health Insurance Exchanges is considered effectuated if the enrollee paid their premium for the applicable month, if they have a non-zero dollar premium, or if the enrollee had a zero dollar premium. Enrollees are captured as effectuated in this dataset if they had an active policy and also paid their month’s premium, if applicable, at the time of the data retrieval.

And the number of Wisconsinites with actively funded premiums has plummeted by 17.6% since its peak in July, with the falloff being especially noticeable at the start of 2026, as premium subsidies were reduced under Trump/GOP Tax Scam 2.0.

But that's Obamacare enrollments in Wisconsin, so how does that affect Medicaid costs? Now that millions of Americans have found their Obamacare is unaffordable, they're more likely to be uninsured and use the emergency room as their doctor's office. And/or more people become likely to wait until they show more severe symptoms before getting treated in general, which also drives up costs, in addition to the lost productivity of work due to more severe illness.

And guess who signed off on Tax Scam 2.0, and who imposed these higher costs onto state taxpayers as a result of it?

Yep, it's Trumpy Tommy Tiffany. And I bet he's not promoting this part of the bill in his ads (come to think of it, he doesn't mention anything about his current job in Congress at all, does he?). Although he's probably going to claim that the working people that got screwed out of their health care by that Big Bunch of Bollocks were committing fraud anyway. It's easier to make up a story than to deal with reality, you know.

Tommy's Tax Scam 2.0 also drove up state costs in another way, because the Evers Administration had to ask the Legislature for $72.8 million earlier this year to hire and pay more of the salaries of workers for the state's food assistance program and make process improvements to avoid having to pay even more state tax dollars for Food Share. And we found out last week that this investment paid off for Wisconsin.

The rate at which Wisconsin distributes too much or too little food assistance is among the lowest in the nation, according to data released Wednesday by the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

According to the estimates measuring all states and U.S. territories, Wisconsin’s error rate for the last fiscal year was 5.72 percent. That’s just over half of the nationwide error rate of 10.62 percent.....

The USDA’s error rate measures both overpayments and underpayments of federal food assistance dollars, known nationally as the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, or SNAP, and in Wisconsin as FoodShare.

Under a provision of last summer’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act, states that exceed a 6 percent error rate will have to shoulder a share of the cost of the program. The size of that share increases as the error rate grows.

That comes as other changes to the program were implemented, including requiring states to take on more administrative costs, and imposing new work requirements on older people and on families with children above age 13. The federal law also requires regular paperwork to prove exemptions from such requirements for some groups, such as families with special needs children.

The damage and higher costs from the Big Bunch of Bollocks that became law a year ago Friday is just becoming apparent in the data. And it's likely to continue as the year goes on and even more expensive 2027 Obamacare premiums are likely to be announced in the next 3 months.

I would hope whoever wins the Democratic nomination for Governor in 40 days will remind Wisconsin voters that Tom Tiffany is a big reason behind the higher costs and lack of insurance that many state residents are dealing with. And there are nearly $400 million in extra costs that are projected to be needed for Wisconsin's FoodShare and Medicaid because Tom Tiffany decided that the superrich and corporate needed another tax giveaway instead of doing something that improved the lives of Wisconsinites with real jobs.

Booming corporate profits aren't being taxed by Feds, but are balancing the books in Wisconsin

As part of the revised GDP figures that came out for Q1 last week, there also was a revision in another stat for the first three months of the year in that report.

Profits from current production (corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments) increased $74.4 billion in the first quarter, revised up $34.0 billion.

Oh? So profit growth nearly doubled from what we had in the original report? And that's on top of what has been a remarkable runup in that figure over the last few years, including an increase of nearly 13% between Q1 2025 and Q1 2026.

And companies are also squeezing out higher rates of profit from their products than they have for most of our lifetimes.

Corporate profits, on an after-tax basis, represent 12.4% of US gross domestic product, the highest reading since the second quarter of 2021, when profits peaked as the COVID pandemic ebbed. It also marks the second-highest quarterly reading ever in the data, which goes back to 1947. Compared against a closely linked measure of US gross domestic income, the total income earned by residents and businesses, corporate profits are even healthier, with a ratio of 12.2%, according to Axios, the highest figure since the early 1950s.

No matter how you slice it, corporate profits in 2026 are soaring higher from what were already historically high levels as a variety of factors — from the AI boom to improved efficiency — have yielded even better returns for corporate America and its investors....

The data also shows that high corporate profit margins have become a longer-term feature of the US economy for years now. From 1950 through 2010, corporate profits as a percentage of GDP were nearly always below 10%.

But in the 16 years since, those margins have been above 10% nearly every quarter, outside of a modest dip during the early stages of the COVID pandemic.

But because of the 2 GOP Tax Scams of the last decade, we aren't seeing those higher corporate profits translate into higher corporate tax revenues at the IRS. Corporate tax revenue is down nearly 30% through May of this fiscal year compared to the same 8 months in FY 2025, and it's down over $100 billion from the same time period in the last full fiscal year under Joe Biden.

Ironically, these corporate tax breaks at the federal level might well have led to much higher corporate taxes being collected for the State of Wisconsin. We haven't had too many additional corporate giveaways at the state level since Tony Evers became Governor in 2019, and while we don't have May's state revenues publicly available, we do have them through April, and Wisconsin's corporate tax is up more than 11% compared to the same time period in Fiscal Year 2025.

That comes on top of a major jump in state corporate taxes that started in 2021 and hasn't come down since.

So while the result of all this profit-taking in corporate in America in the 2020s may suck for everyday people, and has helped to blow up our deficit even more in recent years, I'd say it's helped out Wisconsin's fiscal situation at the same time. That extra $1 billion+ a year has opened the door for income tax cuts for individuals to spend down some of the surplus that's come about in the last few years, and in an odd way, has likely made for more tax fairness in Wisconsin in a time of massive increases in inequality in the US.

Oil and gas prices falling fast in June. Too fast for reality

One of the odd developments that I've seen in recent weeks is how oil futures have plunged back toward what they were before the US went along with Israel's plan to drop bombs on Iran. And it's clearly based on future hopes that oil supplies will recover to pre-war levels, despite the fact that the amount of supply coming out of the Persian Gulf the Middle East today .

is nowhere near where it was back in February.

Graph of Strait of Hormuz crossings since June 2025. See that little spike all the way on the right? The one that's much lower than the leftward 2/3 of the graph, and immediately crashes back down? That's what the US government and quite a bit of US media tell us is fully open, with normal traffic.

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— Nicholas Grossman (@nicholasgrossman.bsky.social) June 21, 2026 at 4:30 PM

Before we've gotten to August, which is when those sub-$70 oil contracts are dated to, we've seen national gas prices fall below $4 a gallon ahead of next week's high-travel 4th of July weekend. That's well ahead of what happened the last time gas prices spiked up in the US, back in the first half of 2022, when prices got up past $5 a gallon nationwide and didn't get under $4 a gallon until August.

What's interesting is that, if anything, gas was more plentiful in the US at this time in 2022 than it is today.

Another interesting trend is that while Americans were using much more gas in March and April 2026 vs the same months in 2022. But that has now changed, and the amount of usage has now dropped to similar levels in May and June, which may indicate some recent adjustments in habits and vacation plans.

In both 2022 and 2026, the US has released oil from the country's Strategic Petroleum Reserve to temper oil prices. But we had much less oil in that reserve when prices shot up in 2026, while the depletion has been happening at the same rate in both years.

So I look at these numbers and am confused and suspicious over why gas and oil prices are so much lower than they were at this time in 2022. The supply availbility today is the same or lower than it was in 2022, with supplies in other parts of the world even lower, so you'd think the world market price for oil would go lower as well. Stocks aren't going to be replenished any time soon, especially if we keep on bombing Iran after the markets close, but the oil markets ignore this reality in favor of....hope? Avoidance?

Plus, even after shipments from the Straits of Hormusz get halfway back to pre-war levels, there's so much less in reserve from the SPR in America that there has to be at least some kind of risk premium that keeps oil and gas prices higher than they were in 2023 or 2024. That is, if we have markets that take into account supply and demand of actual products these days (and that does feel like an "if").

Something feels fishy when it comes to the oil/gas situation these days, and that there has to be some kind of correction coming from what seems to be an absurd amount of recent selling and price declines that appears out of touch with what the actual situation is.