A few thoughts on the Dem Guv primary race

2 weeks ago, the Democratic primary in the Governor’s race seemed to have come into focus.

State Rep. Francesca Hong had a solid group of support but a question as to whether she led and how many more voters she could attract.

Former Lt. Gov Mandela Barnes seemed to be stagnating and possibly fading out, and current Lt. Gov Sara Rodriguez was on the rise as the alternative to both of these candidates. I personally was behind Rodriguez and had the yard sign out.

Milwaukee Co Exec David Crowley had just dropped out and was endorsing Rodriguez, and State Sen. Kelda Roys and Joel Brennan were at the bottom of the pack and seemed to be on the verge of dropping out.

And now….here we are today. Rodriguez is out, the sign is out of our yard, Crowley is back in, and “undecided” is still winning this week’s Marquette Law School Poll of 414 Democratic primary voters.

With Rodriguez out and Crowley back in, this poll was already out of date by the time its results went public this Wednesday. As a result, Charles Franklin and company say there will be a do-over poll that will release its results next Wednesday, which makes me curious why our media and Wisconsin politics put so much creedence as the MU Poll being the voice of God in the first place.

Sure, I worry Hong might drag down some downticket Dem candidates if she was the nominee. She and Barnes are the Dem candidates that would trigger the most dumb white Wisconsinites and other low-info voters, and you’d see the most dishonest and racist GOP ads we have ever seen in this state (yes, worse than what was dumped on Barnes in 2022 vs Ron Johnson). I do think Hong or Barnes can win in November – but I also think they’re the 2 candidates that give Tom Tiffany his best chance to win.

What’s making me frantic about the situation is less the prospect of Francesca Hong having a base of strong support or Mandela Barnes slipping into a nomination despite having zero juice among anyone paying attention. It’s more than there is no indication whatsoever as to where this race is going, and who else can win.

It’s a simple math problem. If you think that Fran tops out her support at around 40%, then it becomes harder with 4 other candidates in the race to get one of them over 40% to beat her. But if there are 3 other candidates it’s easier to get one to 41%, with 2 others it’s very possible, and she’d likely lose a 1-on-1. But in the absence of polling or other signals that yes, THIS one person is the Fran Alternative, voters are left scrambling and confused.

Am I supposed to get behind Crowley because Governor Evers and some SE Wis local officials endorsed him, or is there a reason he didn’t catch on before he dropped out, and that he is being a self-centered fool that is wasting all of our time? And one that will be unfairly attacked for the budget deficits and many needs that still remain in Milwaukee County (much of which isn't Crowley's fault, but GOPs and some low-info voters won't care about that).

Should I get behind Roys, who is solidly progressive with experience in the Legislature, and is the type of candidate who Republicans have no game plan against – a smart white mother who doesn’t put up with their misdirecting BS. But Kelda can’t even get to 5% in almost any poll, and was at 1% in this week's Marquette Poll. So is there any point to getting behind someone that can’t win? She’s got 1 week – put up or shut up, Kelda.

Brennan is a different category, because his “more boring and corporate Evers” routine isn’t connecting, and the money he was supposed to get from the MKE corporates and other insider connections hasn’t really happened. Brennan also just angered the WisDems’ Black Caucus by running an ad saying that the Guv candidates Of Color couldn’t win, but say the same for the lower-polling Roys. SO WHY IS HE STILL IN THIS RACE? If there’s one candidate that should drop, it’s Brennan. He has no lane.

If you think that Fran Hong must be stopped in order to increase Dems’ chances of winning a trifecta in November and getting real change done in this state, I get that (I’m not terrified by Fran winning the primary, but it’s not my preferred outcome). But there doesn’t seem to be an agreed-upon strategy as to how to do that, and there is no one candidate that voters or other candidates are consolidating around to do that.

And that clarity of what would (or would not) happen by choosing a certain candidate is what we need. In the words of the late great Ric Ocasek - JUST TELL ME WHAT TO DO!!!

Odd and huge differences between household and payrolls surveys in Midwest over last year

Following up from last week's state jobs report, I noticed that Wisconsin has a disparity between their payrolls survey (which account for the number of jobs listed for a state) and the household survey (which is where the unemployment rate and labor force numbers are derived from). In our case, the household survey shows larger growth over the last year than the payrolls survey does.

June 2025-June 2026
Wisconsin
Change in Jobs +2,000
Change in Labor Force +25,900
Change in Employed +16,600
Change in Unemployed +9,300

Then I looked at the State-by-State jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics today, and I noticed that other states have much larger disparities between these two surveys. Look at these two charts, and note how many states have slow or declining job growth while also having low unemployment, or have stronger job growth with higher unemployment.

You’ll notice Minnesota is an especially odd case – being 1 of 6 states nationwide with a growth of jobs of more than 1% in the last 12 months, but is also 1 of 8 states whose unemployment has gone up by 0.6% or more in the same time period. And its labor force numbers are especially weird in light of what the payrolls numbers say.

June 2025-June 2026
Minnesota
Change in Jobs +45,900
Change in Labor Force -39,100
Change in Employed -56,400
Change in Unemployed +17,300
Change in Unemployment Rate +0.6%

That all can’t be true, unless cities like Hudson and Superior have become the biggest commuter communities in America, and/or Minnesota has had a massive increase of people working second jobs while a lot of others have none.

Illinois is a more negative version of the same story - recession-level numbers in the household survey, but growth in payrolls.

June 2025-June 2026
Illinois
Change in Jobs +9,200
Change in Labor Force -57,000
Change in Employed -102,800
Change in Unemployed +45,800
Change in Unemployment Rate +0.8%

We will likely have to wait a couple of months where we find out what the “gold standard” Quarterly Census of Employment of Wages (QCEW) says, which will lead to preliminary benchmarking of jobs through this March, which will be announced at the end of August. That’ll give an indication whether Minnesota’s (and America’s) payrolls or household surveys are closer to reality.

On the other side, take a look at Iowa and Indiana, who are reporting losses of jobs while having unemployment go down.

June 2025-June 2026
Iowa
Change in Jobs -9,500
Change in Labor Force -6,100
Change in Employed 0
Change in Unemployed -6,100
Change in Unemployment Rate -0.3%

Indiana
Change in Jobs -4,000
Change in Labor Force -18,300
Change in Employed -2,600
Change in Unemployed -15,700
Change in Unemployment Rate -0.4%

I suppose those numbers could be true if there were a large-scale exodus of working-age people going on from those two (red) states, but I think it’s more likely that there will be changes to make these two bits of data have a closer correspondence once benchmarking happens. Yes, sometimes the numbers diverge, but it's really weird to see things be this far off from each other.

And until we get more clarity, it's hard to figure out if the Midwest jobs market is one where jobs are growing and things are OK, or if people are exiting the work force with few replacing them, or if it is an outright recession for everyday people that isn't showing up in the payrolls numbers supplied to various state Workforce Development departments.

June gains wrap up a good first half for jobs in 2026 for Wisconsin

After a tough 2025, Wisconsin has had a good recovery in the jobs market. That was retierated in the recent report for June from the Wisconsin Department of Workforce Development.

Employment – There were 3,030,100 people employed in Wisconsin, up 6,000 over the month and up 16,600 over the year.
• Labor Force – The state’s labor force participation rate ticked up to 64.5% which is 3.0 percentage points above the national rate of 61.5%.
• Nonfarm Jobs – The total nonfarm jobs in the state were 3,041,000, an increase of 2,400 over last month.
• Unemployment – The state's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate ticked down to 3.3%, which is 0.9 percentage points below the national unemployment rate of 4.2%.

That increase of 2,400 nonfarm jobs includes an increase of 3,000 in the private sector, which now puts Wisconsin at a new record high for private sector jobs.

Even the one area in Wisconsin that had significant seasonally-adjusted “losses” in June (Construction -2,100), was shown as a reflection of lower-than-usual Summer hiring (+3,200), and followed a May where 3,000 jobs were added on a seasonal adjusted basis and 9,500 added in raw numbers. Put those two months together, and Construction had a seasonally adjusted 900 jobs added, and it continues a good trend that we've had in that sector for the last 4 1/2 years in our state.

In another sector that has high levels of seasonal jobs, Leisure and Hospitality had a large jump in April, indicating that seasonal hiring started early. But it has stayed at that higher level in May and June, which isn't what you'd expect if it was merely Summer hiring being pulled forward.

Manufacturing also has had a rebound in employment reported so far for 2026, after consistent losses from 2023 through 2025.

For the household survey, the unemployment rate declined 0.1% in Wisconsin (from 3.4% in May to 3.3%in June) as it did in America as a whole (from 4.3% to 4.2%). But it was for very different reasons, as Wisconsin defied the national trends by growing its labor force by even more than it typically does at the start of Summer, up by 3,300 on a seasonally adjusted basis and 71,800 in reality. That was during a month where the US saw its seasonally-adjusted work force shrink by 720,000. Wisconsin also saw more people list themselves as employed (+6,000 on a seasonally adjusted basis) while the US had 507,000 fewer people say they were working.

Assuming these numbers hold up, that's a really good first half of the year in our state for both adding jobs, and adding work force in general. Both had been categories that the state had struggled with in 2024 and 2025, and it might explain why economic sentiment seems much worse nationwide than the conditions on the ground in Wisconsin might indicate.

"Good" June retail sales were only in a few places, and outlook for July getting worse

Saw this headline relating to an economic report from last Friday, and I thought it summed up a lot.

Retail sales increased 0.2% in June 2026, the weakest monthly gain since early in the year. This deceleration shows that headline spending cooled after a stronger May. The pattern also aligns with broader signals of moderation across goods categories.

Gasoline-driven drag on totals: Receipts at gasoline stations fell 5.3% as average pump prices dropped sharply. This decline reduced headline growth but did not reflect weaker demand. Instead, it was a price effect that temporarily pulled down top-line sales. The decline in pump prices echoed a fall from $4.61 to $4.18 per gallon during June.

Core categories point to resilience: Ex‑gasoline retail sales rose a much stronger 0.7%, with notable gains in autos, nonstore retail, and various discretionary categories. This indicates consumers were still spending, especially in areas less affected by fuel prices. The breadth of these increases suggests the underlying demand backdrop remains solid.

But then you look at the actual report, and the growth in non-gas sales doesn't happen for most of the retail economy.

Change in retail sales, June 2026
Motor vehicle/parts dealers +2.640 billion
Gas/gas stations -3.372 billion
Non-store retailers +2.699 billion
All other retail categories -0.290 billion

And "all other retail categories" accounted for 55% of all retail sales in May. If a majority of retail sales are going down in the aggregate, in a time when those prices outside of gasoline are still generally growing, that's not a good number.

But because gas prices declined through early July due to optimism (rolls eyes) about peace in the Middle East and resulting increases in oil supplies coming, consumers have been in a better mood.

The University of Michigan's Surveys of Consumers said on Friday its Consumer Sentiment Index rose to 54.4 this month, the highest reading since February, from a final reading of 49.5 in June. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the index rising to 51.0. The survey was conducted from June 23 to July 13, with more than 70% of interviews completed before the collapse of the ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran last week, which pushed oil prices to a one-month high. Gasoline prices have risen in response.

Oh? So maybe things are different now because national gas prices are set to go back over $4 a gallon this week? And as UW-Madison's Menzie Chinn points out in Econbrowser, just because consumer sentiment was up in June and early July, it doesn't mean people think things are going well, and the trend is still negative over the last year.

Because of the contined consumer spending through June and the break in gas prices lowering inflation last month, it's likely that we see a solid GDP growth figure around 2% when 2nd quarter numbers are released in 11 days. But what seemed like a one-time annoyance of high gas prices is more likely to be several more weeks of gas prices exceeding or near multi-year highs. We also are now facing a food safety scare that will take produce off the market and likely suppress demand in general, and numerous weather events hitting before the main US hurricane season even begins.

It makes the "inflation has peaked and the economy will keep rolling" takes that I've been seeing following last week's CPI and PPI reports sound very premature, if not outright stupid. Q3 is not off to a good start, and the outlook seems more likely to be bad than good. So watch for June's optimism to quickly reverse as Trump's War cranks back up, health insurance costs are set to go up by double digits, and nothing better is coming along.

Trump/Tiffany FEMA help falls short, and state/locals pick up the difference

You may recall this from a couple of weeks ago.

When severe weather hit Wisconsin, I called the White House to help secure the federal support our state needs.

Thank you to President Trump and his administration for their partnership. We’ll keep working to ensure every Wisconsin community has the resources needed to recover. pic.twitter.com/KxJiTMnBhl

— Tom Tiffany (@TomTiffanyWI) June 30, 2026

Naturally, Trump and Tiffany left out that it was Tony Evers' Administration that gathered the information on the damage estimates and sent it on to FEMA. And now in typical Trump/GOP fashion, the reality of what this aid ends up being is short of what the social media posts claimed.

Sure, FEMA allowed for home and property owners to recover damages from the severe weather, and while that money will assist in paying for infrastructure and other public improvements in some of the affected areas, but others were left out.

The June 30, 2026, major disaster declaration FEMA-4923-DR authorized Individual Assistance for Bayfield, Brown, Buffalo, Jackson, Jefferson, Juneau, Kenosha, Manitowoc, Marathon, Milwaukee, Outagamie, Racine, Rock, Sauk, Vernon, Washington, Waukesha, Waupaca, and Winnebago Counties and the Oneida Nation and Public Assistance for Iowa, Jackson, Jefferson, Juneau, Kewaunee, Outagamie, Rock, Vernon, and Waupaca Counties and the Oneida Nation.

The impact to individuals and households and the infrastructure was significant in the areas designated for Individual Assistance and Public Assistance. However, based on the results of the joint, federal, state, and local government Preliminary Damage Assessments, it has been determined that the impact to the infrastructure in Bayfield, Manitowoc, Marathon, and Racine Counties is not of the severity and magnitude to warrant their designation for Public Assistance under FEMA-4923- DR. In addition, it has been determined that your request for the Hazard Mitigation Grant Program is not warranted. Therefore, your request for Public Assistance for Bayfield, Manitowoc, Marathon, and Racine Counties and Hazard Mitigation statewide is denied.

Evers says he will appeal that denial of public assistance, and while local GOP Assembly members expressed disappointment, I have yet to hear a word about this from the guy who wants to replace Evers as Governor, Congressman Tom Tiffany. That’s despite Marathon and Bayfield counties being in Tiffany’s district, in a job he is still pulling 6 figures and benefits for.

And in a matter of interesting timing, the Wisconsin Policy Forum released a report this week on disaster aids and payments in Wisconsin. First of all, the Policy Forum notes that while there is a minimum amount of damage that does have to be met for FEMA aid, there is also no requirement to give aid no matter how much damage happens.

There is no specific dollar threshold that must be cleared to guarantee a major disaster declaration. Instead, disaster recovery must be “beyond the combined capabilities of state and local governments to respond.” There are damage rates per capita that define the minimum thresholds for eligibility. For Wisconsin as a whole, the 2025 threshold was $11.4 million in damage to public property, while for Milwaukee County the minimum was $4.5 million. These are eligibility minimums, but federal law gives broad discretion over these requests to the president, who can decide which parts to approve. Once approved, these declarations make direct aid available to local individuals and governments.

The previous disaster declaration prior to this week was for the storms and record flooding in August, where the Trump Administration allowed aid for individuals in three counties in the Milwaukee metro area, similar to the individual assistance given out from the April floods. The Policy Forum says this has resulted in a large amount of help being sent over to southeastern Wisconsin.

According to FEMA data, nearly 46,000 residents of Waukesha, Washington, and Milwaukee counties applied for individual assistance from FEMA following the August 2025 floods. Milwaukee County residents accounted for over 91% of those requests. As of June 2026, more than $210 million in aid had been distributed to 36,800 eligible applicants across the three counties. Figure 3 shows that property damage was concentrated on Milwaukee’s northwest side.

B But there was nothing given out by the Trump Administration for streets and lands that may have washed away in those record rains of August, or to deal with tree removal or many of the other public needs that resulted from that severe weather event. This led to an additional $16.9 million in state funds being requested by the Evers Administration and approved by the Joint Finance Committee in May, for the amount of weather-related damage claims that had happened in the 2026 Fiscal Year.

However, there is only $3 million in state funds available for disaster assistance in the 2027 Fiscal Year, which started 2 weeks ago. And now there are at least four counties that need additional help to clean up from the tornadoes, floods and severe storms from this April. We also know that there were tornadoes and hurricane-level winds on the 3rd of July that killed 3 children in Lake Geneva due to a capsizing boat, and caused damage and destruction to numerous buildings in the southeastern corner of the state.

Evers has yet to send in a request for disaster aid from that set of storms, and while today’s historically bad air quality doesn’t do a lot of damage to buildings or infrastructure, it will limit a lot of activities around the state for the next couple of days, and does remind us that even weather in other parts of the world can have its effects on our economy. Which is also something that Trump and Tiffany do not especially seem interested in dealing with, and often outright deny is going on.

With property values and the costs of construction and repair continuing to go up, these weather disasters are likely to continue to cost more. That's not even accounting for the increase in intensity and frequency for these types of things (for example, Wisconsin has already had 2 of its top 6 years for tornadoes in 2025 and 2026). Which means that when the Trump Administration refuses to give full assistance to states like Wisconsin, it's the state and local governments that have to pay more. And that's not something Tom Tiffany wants voters to know, but it needs to be said.

No surprise that CPI fell in June, but PPI as well? Now that's interesting

We figured consumer inflation would show prices going down overall in June, due to a significant decline at the pump. But I don’t think we thought it would be this much.

The Consumer Price Index, released Tuesday, showed inflation declined 0.4% on a monthly basis in June, the largest single-month decline since April 2020. Annual inflation also eased to 3.5%, the government said, in the lowest yearly reading since March.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had expected inflation to fall just 0.1% from May and rise 3.8% from a year ago, a moderation from May's bruising report as gas prices eased thanks to a now-disintegrating ceasefire in the war with Iran.

Indeed, the index for energy prices tumbled 5.7% in June, while the gasoline index fell 9.7%, though both remain much hotter than a year ago. Food prices, meanwhile, ticked up 0.2%, with lettuce and fish costs driving higher.

"The renewed war in Iran will almost certainly push inflation back up. Relief could be short-lived. But this should give the Federal Reserve some time to see wait and see for awhile," Heather Long, chief economist at the Navy Federal Credit Union, posted on X.

On a "core" basis, stripping out volatile energy and food categories, price growth slid to 2.6% on an annual basis, and was flat for the month. Economists had seen inflation rising 0.2% from May and 2.8% from last year.

That core number will especially buy the Fed some time, since Fed Governor Christopher Waller indicated earlier in the week that stat would be a bigger guide into where things stood than the overall CPI number for June. And that flat reading meant that core inflation followed the overall CPI in having its rate go down vs May.

Digging into the CPI report, we see the moderating and declines in prices were in many areas.

The index for all items less food and energy was unchanged in June after rising 0.2 percent in May. The shelter index increased 0.1 percent over the month, the smallest 1-month change reported for that index since January 2021. The index for owners’ equivalent rent rose 0.2 percent in June, and the index for rent increased 0.1 percent. The lodging away from home index fell 2.3 percent over the month.

The motor vehicle insurance index declined 2.0 percent in June after falling 1.7 percent in May. The index for communication fell 1.5 percent over the month, and the index for apparel declined 0.6 percent. The used cars and trucks index fell 0.2 percent in June.

That was the surprising part, given that May’s core Producer Price Index rose by 0.8%. So are the businesses taking lower profits at this point? Or have those higher producer prices not made their way through, and July will see a return to the inflationary cycle?

Then the PPI report came out on Wednesday. We knew that gasoline fell significantly in June and that would show in the overall PPI number, but apparently the cost of other goods also were going down?

Final demand goods: The index for final demand goods moved down 1.4 percent in June, the largest decrease since falling 1.9 percent in July 2022. Leading the decline in June, prices for final demand energy dropped 6.4 percent. The index for final demand foods moved down 0.6 percent. Conversely, prices for final demand goods less foods and energy increased 0.2 percent.

Product detail: Nearly two-thirds of the June decline in the index for final demand goods can be traced to prices for gasoline, which dropped 12.0 percent. The indexes for diesel fuel, jet fuel, fresh vegetables (except potatoes), crude petroleum, and thermoplastic resins and materials also fell. In contrast, prices for plastic products advanced 1.6 percent. The indexes for residential electric power and for potatoes also increased.

The drop in wholesale food prices got extra attention from me – that’s not something we had seen recently, as the PPI for foods had gone up in 0.2% and 0.5% in April and May respectively. And as hinted above, there was a wide range of foods that had their prices fall at the wholesale level last month.

Change in PPI, June 2026
Grains -12.0%
Oilseeds -7.8%
Fresh/dry vegetables -6.0%
Fresh fruits/melons -2.2%
Processed chickens -2.2%
Processed turkeys -2.1%
Pork -1.9%
Eggs -1.7%
Beef/veal -1.5%

So we should see some relief in grocery prices for July and likely August. And if we don’t, we probably should be suspicious as to why not.

Intermediate producer prices also went down in June (-1.2%), their first decline since October, and a reversal from what we’d seen, as those had gone up by a total of 8.6% over the previous 3 months. It’s weird to me how those sizable intermediate increases from March through May didn’t translate into an increase in overall PPI in the final products for June, and I wonder who ends up losing as a result. Did we just have an odd blip before inflation comes back in July, especially with oil back up toward $80 a barrel? Or are there businesses that are losing out and will see their profits be severely reduced because they can’t pass on the higher costs from this Spring to their customers? I don't see a third option out there.

SThe declining prices of June will buy time for the Federal Reserve to figure out what things look like for the second half of 2026, so don’t count on any moves when the Fed meets on interest rates in 2 weeks. But June’s declines for both CPI and PPI leave me more confused than I was before this week, as this regression from the high inflation of the previous part of 2026 seems too good to be true (maybe literally?).

INFLATION WATCH - it'll be down for June, but likely not for July

Tomorrow, we are likely to find out that not only did we not have inflation for June, but we may well have had deflation!

The cost of living is all but certain to decline in June for the first time since the pandemic six years ago — entirely due to a sharp drop in gasoline prices. The cost of a regular gallon of gas tumbled 15% from mid-May to the end of June.

Economists predict the U.S. consumer-price index fell by 0.2% in June. The critical report for Wall Street will be released Tuesday morning.

The yearly rate of inflation should follow suit, slowing to 3.8%, from 4.2% in May. The May rate was the highest since April 2023.

So nothing but smooth sailing from here in! Prices should fall back, with no need to raise interest rates, because the war in Iran is done, and it only cost us 4 months of higher gas prices and...

Wait, what's that you're telling me?

The U.S. military said it carried out more strikes on Iran on Monday, hours after President Trump announced he would reimpose a blockade against the country and start charging tolls for other countries' ships to pass the Strait of Hormuz....

Earlier, Trump said the United States would not allow Iranian ships to move through the Strait of Hormuz. "We are reinstating THE IRANIAN BLOCKADE, so named because it is only stopping Iran's ships or customers from entering or leaving," he said in a post online.

CENTCOM said the blockade would begin on Tuesday at 4 p.m. ET. The U.S. military last worked to block maritime traffic to and from Iranian ports from April 13 to June 18.

OH COME ON! This is also why I filled up the car today.

As oil was spiking by more than $5 a barrel today, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller was telling New York business leaders that inflation is definitely back in 2026

"We're building off of basically almost, you know, five to six months of 'higher, higher, higher, higher,' on inflation readings," Waller said. "If I get another higher one, I'm going to treat that as signal, not noise.".

Waller went on to say that inflation was widespread in several areas of the economy, beyond the gas price increases in the first half of this year.

In particular, he said he is worried that recent inflation reports have shown price pressures seeming to broaden throughout the economy, beyond the influence of ‌last year's import tariff increases or the recent jump in energy costs ⁠and potentially reflecting more systemic inflation that would require tighter monetary policy. Of the categories in core services, which account for 75% of core prices, nearly 70% have 3-month and 12-month inflation over 3%, he said.

While the situation is not comparable to the breakout of price increases that followed the COVID-19 pandemic, with the labor market not as tight, ⁠for example, Waller said the Fed has the benefit of anchored inflation expectations — an advantage the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee should not squander by waiting too long to raise rates if inflation persists.

"I don't take the inflationary signals I have discussed today lightly. If we get another hot reading on core inflation this week, then the FOMC will need to consider tightening monetary policy in the near term," Waller said. He added that it would take "several months of lower readings to feel that inflation is finally moving in the right direction."

And that's why you should ignore what is likely to be an overall drop in inflation that's likely to be reported tomorrow morning. Because it'll be because of a one-month drop for gas prices that are likely to bounce back up in July and August. Look to the core rate beyond food and energy to see if that stays in the +0.2% to +0.4% it was in for the first 5 months of this year. Christopher Waller and the rest of the Fed certainly will.

And then watch out for the Producer Price Index report which will drop on Wednesday. Those prices paid by businesses went up by 1.1% in both April and May, and were up 3.5% in the step before final production, indicating that the increase may be even higher for June. If that comes in hot, we are likely heading toward a rate hike some time in the next 2 months, and boy will the Trump/GOPs, coked-up hedge bros and debt-needy AI types hate that!