Saturday, October 19, 2024

Nice try dweeb, but wages for workers have not fallen behind under Biden-Harris

If you're one of my 5 regular readers, you know that one of the things I can't stand is GOP dishonesty. Like this stuff from a Heritage Foundation Koch-sucker.

Hey EJ! Know what else was happening in Q4 2020? A US unemployment rate of 6.7%, mostly because we were still in a pandemic where US deaths were 30-50% higher than expected during that quarter.

And the types of jobs that made up a whole lot of that unemployed? The leisure and hospitality sector, which incldued bars and restaurants being down 2.5 million jobs from the pre-COVID peak, accomodation services was down nearly 800,000 and arts, entertainment and recreation was down more than 3/4 of a million jobs at the end of 2020.

That was more than 1/4 of the 9.8 million-job loss of Americans at the time, well above the 11% jobs that those 3 sectors accounted for in the pre-COVID peak of February 2020. In addition, the leisure and hospitality sector had average (nominal) weekly wages of $438 in the last 3 months of 2020, well below the Q4 2020 median of $983. (Yes I know average isn't exactly the same as median, but you get the idea).

So this means the average weekly wage would be higher in Q4 than normal, solely because a lot of jobs were lost in those low-wage sectors. Conversely, between December 2020 and December 2021, as Americans got vaccinated and more economic activity in travel and personal contact industries resumed, the US added 7.25 million jobs, with 2.46 million (34%) of those jobs coming back to bars/restaurants, accomodation services, and arts, entertainment, and rec.

would And even though average weekly wages in the leisure and hospitality industry had jumped to $507 from $438 a year ago (a 16% increase!), it was still barely half the overall median weekly wage of $1,009 at the end of 2021. Needless to say, with more of the restored jobs being in lower-wage industries, that'll drive the median weekly wage down.

So let's do a fairer comparison, which is to look at where real median wages are compared to 2019, or even Q1 2020 (as most of the job losses didn't hit until mid-March and so the wages won't be too distorted). And it gives a much different look than what Heritage's boy wants to tell you about.

Yes, there may have been no change for median weekly wages between the end of 2019 and 2021, but that hides the fact that higher-wage earners weren't getting the amount of gains that lower-wage workers got. And since inflation peaked in the middle of 2022, we've seen real gains of 3.3% over the 9 quarters since then. Pretty darn good if you ask me.

But even though you may have already figured out that things were better than 2020 just by thinking about it for a few seconds. EJ Antoni isn't getting his "charity-funded" salary at the Heritage Foundation to give honest assessments. And the fact that it takes this amount of explanation to show just how full of shit that guy is helps to explain why him and other Trump/GOPs try this dishonest "THINGS COST MORE THAN 4 YEARS AGO" theme, without explaining why or giving any policy that would help Americans pay less.

In fact, we know that the policies promoted by Trump and the real agenda-setters at Heritage's Project 2025 would cause inflation to fire back up, instead of keeping it under control like it is today. But alleged PhD EJ Antoni (who has never had a job outside of wingnut welfare) isn't going to tell you that, either.

Friday, October 18, 2024

As Wisconsinites start voting, the jobs market is in great shape here.

As the November election looms in this battleground state, we got more good news about the Wisconsin jobs market.
The Wisconsin Department of Workforce Development (DWD) today announced new record-high employment during September 2024, according to preliminary estimates from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. This is the fifth consecutive monthly record for state employment, highlighting the unprecedented number of workers participating in Wisconsin's economy.

Preliminary employment estimates for September 2024 showed Wisconsin's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate remained at 2.9%, which is 1.2 percentage points below the national unemployment rate of 4.1%. The state's labor force participation rate increased to 65.6% in September while the national rate stayed at 62.7%.

• Place of Residence Data: Wisconsin's unemployment rate was 2.9% in September, 1.2 percentage points below the national rate of 4.1%. Wisconsin's labor force increased by 6,700 over the month and 1,300 over the year. The number of people employed increased 7,700 over the month to a record-high 3,059,700 employed.
• Place of Work Data: Total nonfarm jobs decreased 4,000 over the month and increased 30,800 over the year to 3,044,800 jobs.
But even the loss of 4,000 payroll jobs isn't as bad as it sounds, as a "loss" of 7,300 jobs in state government appears to be the result of a large number of UW employees starting work in time to be recorded in the August report when the model counted on them not being recorded until September.

In the private sector, the state added 2,100 (seasonally-adjusted) jobs in September, continuing a multi-year trend of solid job growth in both the private sector, and overall. Even after people had returned to work following the COVID cutbacks.

On the household survey, this was the 7th straight month where the state's unemployment rate was under 3% (if you don't round), and the 2.86% rate for September was the lowest since May 2023.

And since the Biden-Harris Administration started, nearly 60,000 fewer Wisconsinites are unemployed, and nearly 100,000 more are working.

All of this looks pretty good to me. Wisconsin has even had our labor force rebound from a downtrend that started in 2017, which had been a real economic limitation for our state.

Seems like we would want to keep this going instead of having the chaos and likely decline that would hit with the return of Trumpian BS to the White House.

Thursday, October 17, 2024

Wisconsin has even more money in its already-huge bank account.

We knew the State of Wisconsin already had a lot of money in its bank account. But we found out this week we had even more than we were planning on.
The Evers administration in August announced the state took in $275.7 million more in tax collections in 2023-24 than had been previously projected. [Tuesday’s] report adds in a final look at the state’s expenditures during the fiscal year, resulting in the roughly $400 million more to the state’s bottom line than what had been projected.

According to [Tuesday’s] report, the state closed the books on 2023-24 June 30 with $4.6 billion in the general fund after the Legislative Fiscal Bureau had projected in January that the state would have a gross balance of about $3.8 billion.

But the LFB built into its January projection that the state would transfer $423.3 million from the general fund to the Capital Improvement Fund during 2023-24. That move was part of a deal struck between UW officials and Assembly Speaker Robin Vos, R-Rochester, to fund university projects and make other investments in exchange for changes to DEI positions.
Basically, that $423 million hasn’t yet been sent over to a fund that pays for building projects in cash vs borrowing. It is being sent over in the current 2025 Fiscal Year, and adds to $1.234 billion in cash that was allocated to building projects in June 2023, with the passage of the 2023-25 state budget.

So even though the state ends up nearly $800 million better off than they were in May's estimates from the Legislative Fiscal Bureau, about $400 million of that gap will be given back in this Fiscal Year due to that delayed payment. But it still leaves an estimated $3.5 billion to be carried over into the next state budget.

You dig further into the Annual Fiscal Report, and you see that outside of the cash payments for buildings, the biggest increase in state spending for the 2024 Fiscal Year was in Medicaid and related Medical Assistance (MA).
In FY 2024, total MA expenditures, including BadgerCare Plus, were $14,372.1 million, of which $4,200.8 million was GPR. On an all funds basis, MA expenditures increased by 2.6 percent from FY 2023. In FY 2024, GPR expenditures increased by $1,130.2 million from FY 2023. The GPR expenditures increase was driven by the phasing down of the MA federal matching rate under the federal Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2023. During FY 2024, average MA enrollment decreased by 11.4 percent, the decrease was due to the end of the continuous coverage provision of the federal Families First Coronavirus Response Act.

Enrollment trends varied within eligibility groups, however. Average monthly enrollment of low- income families (children and parents) decreased by 8.9 percent, while the average monthly enrollment of elderly and disabled individuals and childless adults decreased by 5.1 percent and 19.8 percent, respectively.
So we had an increase in state tax dollars for BadgerCare and other Medicaid services by more than $1.1 billion last year, despite having fewer enrollees. And a big reason why was that the Feds stopped covering as much when it came to Medicaid expenses (removing a COVID-era boost of 6.2% of costs).

Wait, I know a way we can have the Feds go back to paying a higher % of those bills! All we have to do is to expand Medicaid under the ACA and we'd save $1.7 billion in state tax dollars over the next two years. And now with new, fair maps, maybe we can get Robbin' Vos out of the way in the Assembly, and finally do the right thing in this state.

Then maybe we can use some of that extra money from the $3.5 billion in the bank and $1.7 billion from expanding Medicaid to stop using so many property taxes to pay for schools and local services in this state. Whatcha say?

Sunday, October 13, 2024

In reality, the US economy in October 2024 is great. Will enough voters believe that?

One of the most infuriating things in this election cycle is the flat-out BS that Republicans and too many American voters believe when it comes to the state of the American economy. By any objective measure, we are in a great situation, and yet GOPs are trying to convince people that it's all bad and that all of the good things that are happening in the Real America aren't happening.

Heather Long of the Washington Post penned a recent editorial taking issue with that, and said that if facts matter, Americans should be very happy with the country's economy.

Polarization in the United States makes it difficult to talk about any truth, even about the economy. Last Friday’s jobs report surpassed all expectations. As soon as it came out, Republicans such as Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida tried calling it fake. In reality, even if the report is later revised down, it will still show an economy that is humming along. And consider the bigger picture: The United States has nearly 7 million more jobs than it did before the pandemic, and the largest share of 25-to-54-year-olds working since 2001. Many experts didn’t think it even possible for the labor market to become this robust again. Some theories considered Americans too addicted to video games or drugs, or simply too lazy to work. The jobs rebound has proved the experts wrong.

The story on inflation is similar. Two years ago, economists were predicting a recession. Many said it was impossible to lower inflation without a downturn and widespread job losses. Yet we are living through this miracle. Report after report shows inflation cooling off. On Thursday, we learned that inflation has cooled to 2.4 percent. It’s so close to the 2 percent target again even Federal Reserve officials aren’t that worried about it anymore. And there is no recession in sight.
Long also notes that for all the talk of the stress that past price hikes have caused, Americans' wage gains have generally been larger than price increases, especially among those on the lower end of the wage scale.

Overall, inflation-adjusted hourly wages are more than 2% higher than they were at the end of 2019 (aka pre-COVID), and are nearly 3% higher than they were at inflation's peak of June 2022. And yet Republicans are insisting that things are no better than they were 2 years ago, if you listen to the (rapidly-dwindling) economic-based ads that they run.

Long admits that your mileage may vary depending on your personal circumstance and the housing costs in your neighborhood. But whatever stresses exist have not held back everyday Americans from spending money at a rate that is well above the amount of price increases that may have existed. And now borrowing costs are heading down for those who may have been hurt from the higher interest rates of the last 2 years.
This doesn’t mean all is perfect. The third of American households that rent their homes have faced painful increases, and many have lost hope that they will ever be able to buy a home. And although the job market is robust, hiring has slowed. Younger Americans are struggling to get jobs, especially in white-collar industries. The manufacturing sector has also been in an slump lately. (The Fed rate cuts should help alleviate some of this pain.)

Nevertheless, the economy is excelling on many fronts, much as it did in the late 1990s. And polls show that Americans are beginning to notice. JPMorgan’s chief global strategist, David Kelly, has pointed out that the “misery index” (a combination of the inflation and unemployment rates) has dropped lower than it has been 89 percent of the time in the past half-century. The best metric to watch is consumer spending. Even as Americans tell pollsters they are gloomy, they keep on spending — especially on eating out, visits to amusement parks and pumpkin patches, and tickets to concerts and sports events. This is yet another signal of a healthy economy.
In addition, I'd mention that recent revisions from the Bureau of Economic Analysis shows that Americans had significantly higher incomes than first reported, and as a result, personal savings rates have been near or slight;ly above 5% of income for the last 18 months, which isn't much different than they were in the late 2010s.

I also note this interesting release from the Biden Administration's Council of Economic Advisors, who say that the higher wages for typical American workers translates into groceries being more affordable now than they were in much of the Trump years.

Which again illustrates a central question in this election. Do American voters believe in the reality that Republicans are trying to convince them of, or do they believe the one that exists in the outside world? And it's amazing and discouraging that we don't have a definitive answer for that question. I have optimism that Real Reality wins out (which means that Dems will win out in 23 days), but I can't guarantee it yet.

Saturday, October 12, 2024

Inflation watch? Other than eggs and fruits, not much to worry about.

After a few months of good news on the inflation front, and with the Federal Reserve beginning to cut rates from multi-year highs, this week gave us a chance to see if the momentum continued in September with the release of new a new report on the Consumer Price Index.

A 0.3% increase in "core" inflation (i.e., without food or energy) isn’t great, but it was nice to see the rise in shelter to only be 0.2% for the second time in 4 months. It was rises in clothing (+1.1%), medical services (+0.7%) and transportation services (+1.4%) that got the overall core index higher than expected.

That’s not a big deal in the overall picture, but something I did notice was the 0.4% increase in food at home (generally groceries), which is the biggest 1-month jump in that category since companies re-set their prices for 2024 in January. And 2/3 of that increase in groceries came down to 2 items.

Eggs +8.4%
Fresh fruits +2.2%

Most everything else was tepid when it came to price increases, so that feels like things are still generally under control.

But what’s up with those egg prices, which are now up nearly 40% in the last year?
More than 100 million “wild aquatic birds, commercial poultry and backyard or hobbyist flocks” have been infected with bird flu since January 2022, according to the CDC.

Prices have spiked in recent weeks due to a large bird flu outbreak at two Colorado chicken farms in July. That, paired with higher consumer demand, is contributing to the sticker shock many Americans may be experiencing in the aisles, experts say.

More than 50 million birds died in the 2014-2015 outbreak, while more than 100 million birds have died since the outbreak that started in 2022. It has become the most deadly HPAI outbreak in history.

Amy Hagerman, an associate professor of agricultural economics at Oklahoma State University, says table egg-laying chickens seem particularly susceptible to HPAI, likely because the virus can spread quickly in their close quarters.

“Table egg-layer facilities tend to be very large, and so you can lose a million or 2 million birds on a single facility, because this is a highly contagious virus,” she says.
So the price spike in eggs isn’t anything that relates to economic policy here, unless you want more sick chickens and your store’s eggs becoming more (shall we say) high-risk?

Other good news is that September's increase in average hourly wages beat the CPI for the 5th straight month, and is up by 1.5% vs inflation on a year-over-year basis.

I also remembered Fed officials mentioning that a tepid reading for August in the Producer Price Index was a big reason why what they chose a larger interest rate cut last month. So let’s see what the newest PPI report portends for future inflation.
The Producer Price Index for final demand was unchanged in September, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices advanced 0.2 percent in August and were unchanged in July. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand rose 1.8 percent for the 12 months ended in September.

Within final demand in September, a 0.2-percent increase in the index for final demand services offset a 0.2-percent decline in prices for final demand goods.

The index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services inched up 0.1 percent in September after rising 0.2 percent in August. For the 12 months ended in September, prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services increased 3.2 percent.
Not bad, and when you look further up the chain, the three steps closest to the source all had price drops in September.

The only item in that PPI report that worries me is the 1.0% increase in the final demand stage for foods. Much like the CPI report, this seems to be heavily concentrated into few areas - fresh fruits (+8.3%), processed chickens (+9.9%), grains (+4.8%), and dairy products (+1.5%). I also note that while eggs had a PPI decline of -6.2% in September, but that's little comfort after a 56% increase in June and 55% increase in August.

But overall, I don’t see widespread inflation firing back up over the coming months, because most other sectors are seeing flat or even declining prices. Well, outside of profiteering or other manipulations, of course.

Thursday, October 10, 2024

Yes, there's FEMA money for disasters now. May need more soon, but they are helping today

With the one-two punch of hurricanes Helene and Milton in recent weeks, we've seen Republicans try to claim that there isn't enough aid to pay for the recovery efforts of the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), or that somehow the aid is being misdirected away from helping people in the stricken areas. Which is why this recent tweet from FOX NEWS' top correspondent on Capitol Hill was worth noting.

Repeat - Disaster Relief Funds go to RELIEF FROM DECLARED DISASTERS. It is not diverted to deal with services related to migrants.

In addition to that memo, there was a report to Congress on October 3rd discussing the availability of funds related to Hurricane Helene. And it said there are billions of disaster relief available right now.
While it is not the only source of federal funding for disaster assistance, FEMA’s Disaster Relief Fund (DRF) is the primary funding source for federal government response and recovery activities. As a result, its level of unobligated funds is often used as shorthand for the overall availability of federal resources for response and recovery.

On August 7, 2024, prior to the development of Hurricane Helene, FEMA announced the implementation of immediate needs funding (INF) restrictions, as a result of the unobligated balance in the DRF for major disasters being at risk of depletion before the end of FY2024. INF slows obligations for long-term recovery and mitigation projects in favor of preserving resources for response and recovery activities. This action has delayed $8 billion in obligations as of mid-September 2024. Although annual appropriations have not been enacted for FEMA as of the date on this Insight, on September 27, 2024, President Biden signed into law a continuing resolution that would provide $20.26 billion in temporary budget authority for the DRF, available October 1. These funds would be available until December 20, 2024, or until FEMA’s annual appropriations are enacted, whichever comes first.
Now, maybe we need more funds than that to take care of the large amount of damage and disruption from Helene and Milton over the coming weeks. But there is money that can be used for assistance individuals and communities, and FEMA's top administrator told Chris Hayes last night that they were hard at work to get that help out as best they can, both in Florida and in North Carolina, and reiterated there was enough money in the accounts to pay for efforts at this time.

I also want to point out that Congress gets a Disaster Relief Fund monthly report, the most recent of which came out on Wednesday. And it shows the $20.26 billion in base budget for major disaster assistance via FEMA, and there is also $1.974 billion carried over from the 2024 Fiscal Year, which ended on September 30.

Some of those funds are intended to pay for disaster assistance and administration that has already been set aside, including COVID aids and Puerto Rico’s continued rebuilding from Hurricane Maria). But most of it can be used right now for help, and there will be more to come once Congress passes a bill to pay for it (well, there BETTER be a bill that pays to rebuild from these hurricanes).

It is gross that Republicans and Twitter trolls are claiming that FEMA does not have funding to perform Disaster Relief operations at this time, and anyone that has said so in the last 7 days IS LYING. There is no "buts" about that. THEY ARE LYING.

Tuesday, October 8, 2024

2024's final budget deficit ends at $1.8 trillion. Does it matter?

On Tuesday, the Congressional Budget Office released their monthly US budget information statement for September. Which means that this report also gave the full-year total for the budget, and we got to see what the total deficit was.
The federal budget deficit was $1.8 trillion in fiscal year 2024, the Congressional Budget Office estimates. The estimated deficit for 2024 was $139 billion more than the shortfall recorded during fiscal year 2023. Revenues increased by an estimated $479 billion (or 11 percent). Revenues in all major categories, but notably individual income taxes, were greater than they were in fiscal year 2023. Outlays rose by an estimated $617 billion (or 10 percent).
To be exact, the CBO says the budget deficit for Fiscal Year 2024 ended up being $1.834 trillion. On the positive side, this was $81 billion less than what was projected by the CBO in June, and the CBO points out that if it wasn't for SCOTUS cancelling some canceled student loan debt, the deficit would have gone down in FY 2024.
[2023]’s deficit of $1.7 trillion would have been larger if not for the recording of budgetary effects related to the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn a plan the Administration announced in 2022 to cancel many borrowers’ outstanding student loans. If those effects, and the effects of timing shifts, were excluded for fiscal year 2023, the deficit for that year would have been $2.0 trillion instead of $1.7 trillion. Thus, without the savings related to the unwinding of the proposed debt cancellation (and excluding the effects of timing shifts), CBO estimates that the federal deficit would have been lower by $110 billion in 2024 than it was in 2023.
The current deficit is also well below the $3.0 trillion+ what we had during the pandemic-wracked 2020 Fiscal Year, which included massive increases in aids in pretty much every direction, and a lack of revenues as unemployment spiked in March and April of that year. But the deficit is also quite a bit more than what was projected in late 2020 (mostly due to the Biden Administration's stimulus measures), and is even above what was expected in Spring 2023.

Some of that increase in the deficit for 2024 was due to a $240 billion jump in interest costs on the US debt, which reflects the large increase in interest rates from the Federal Reserve in 2022 and 2023.

But I'll also note there was a significant drop in tax revenues in Fiscal Year 2023. This seems to be related to 2022's losses in the stock market (which have now long-recovered), and because of after-effects of 2022's inflation, as Social Security benefits had a large increase in 2023, and there was also a back-door tax break in 2023 as the tax brackets re-set at significantly higher income levels as an indexing to that inflation.

On the spending side, the cancellation of the student loan cancellation was a little less than half of the increase in spending.
Outlays in fiscal year 2024 were $6.8 trillion, CBO estimates—$617 billion (or 10 percent) more than in fiscal year 2023. Total outlays through fiscal year 2024, were about $50 billion (or less than 1 percent) less than CBO projected in June. If not for the timing shifts discussed above, outlays in fiscal year 2024 would have been $699 billion (or 11 percent) greater than in 2023. The discussion below reflects adjustments to exclude the effects of those timing shifts.

If the 2024 savings related to the unwinding of the proposed cancellation of student loans...and the effects of timing shifts are excluded, CBO estimates that outlays in 2024 would have been $369 billion (or 6 percent), greater than during the same period last fiscal year.
The $240 billion increase in interest costs on the US debt accounted for much of the rest of the added spending, along with a $107 billion increase in Social Security benefits and $78 billion in additional Medicare costs.

I still don't see the deficit as a major economic problem. The US dollar index is quite a bit stronger than it was in 2020, and has been relatively steady since the start of 2023, trading in a small range. And inflation has settled back toward 2019 rates even as the deficit is twice the level that it was back then (which also illustrates that much of the "inflation" was related to the big jump in profits over those 5 years).

But if you don't like the high negative numbers of our budget balance, I would suggest that a return to higher tax rates on the rich and corporate could help to bring that number down starting next year. And maybe bring down some of that greedflation in the process!

Sunday, October 6, 2024

Those hateful and stupid GOP ads wrecking your sports-watching experience? It's by design

In a typical October, a full day of college football and MLB playoffs on Saturday is a fun time. But because we are in "swing-state Wisconsin" in an election year, it also means the commerical breaks are filled with political ads. And especially filled with absurd and insulting Republican ads.

I know the point is to be as disgusting as possible and there's no sense in overthinking it, but the transphobic Trump ad airing during the baseball game is a decent metaphor for the broader goals of the movement. Just smearing their shit over every other thing, making it uglier and more like them.

— David_j_roth (@davidjroth.bsky.social) October 5, 2024 at 4:05 PM

We are definitely at the "stir up dumb white people with trans panic and scary non-white people with fuzzy-looking video" part of a GOP campaign. And it's become a consistent, solutionless GOP strategy to demoralize Dem voters and distract other ones.

Let's go back to the last time GOPs were polluting the MLB playoffs and other October sports viewing, back in 2022. And Roth wrote the definitive article on this strategy, titled "The Disgust is the Product." And in the article, Roth focused on gross ads being run by a RW front group known as Citizens for Sanity.
In theory, if not necessarily in practice, ideology exists at a remove from that kind of grubby, rube-running, retail stuff. If the political part can be understood as what a party actually does, the ideological aspect would be the ostensible reason why it does it. Given that the politics looks like what it looks like—one lavishly fetishized crisis after another, each carried forward through aligned media with the goal of creating in the consumer a constant state of furious full-spectrum derangement—the ideology is easy enough to guess. The obvious goal of all this is to get and keep people ready to do or think very strongly about how cool it would be to do some righteous violence against every other person and thing that exists. The name of the organization behind the advertisements, naturally, is Citizens For Sanity....

In its current state, Trumpism is entirely about feeling and fantasy. Instead of any plan to deal with crime, for instance, there is only the lascivious going-over of the problem; there is no program, or really any policies to advocate for, that is more expedient for the party than just continuing to fixate on it. There is a constituency — they are confused and vengeful and fucking livid, they are daily taking in and making up strange new stories to keep themselves that way, they are less mis- or disinformed than they are living inside the bilious and vengeful lore that sustains and explains their movement — and there is what that constituency feels, but there is nothing else. It is again worth noting that this constituency chooses to feel this way, every day; the most comfortable Americans have opted to wander this wilderness of prurience and threat and weird ugly lies instead of living in a reality they would have to share with anyone else. Where there might otherwise be ideology—where there might, actually, have been anything else—there is only politics. Of course it is ugly, small, even more fantastically dark than the truth of the moment. Being ugly, in precisely that way, is the reason that it exists. What began as a cynical set of best practices for keeping distracted people attached to their televisions has become the sacrament itself; they have built a church and then just fucking filled it with cable news.

In a characteristically thoughtful post about the advertisements at Baseball Prospectus, Steven Goldman wrote about how strange and jarring it was to see Citizens For Sanity's ads during these last weeks of extremely exciting and good baseball games, in part because those games consist, as baseball games do, of the best efforts of people from all over the world. "The dissonance tears something within you and you may feel distanced from the joy of the game," Goldman writes. "It’s exactly what they wanted." This is true, and the contrast between the baseball and the advertisements standing athwart it, yelling slurs, was certainly a big part of why I found the ads so repellent. But I also think that this collision is useful. It is not just that the two are in contrast, but that they are in some fundamental sense in conflict. You have these games, unfinished and alive and lit up with brilliance and the basic human thrill in things not yet known, and then you have its opposite: finished, closed, fearful, hateful, heaving itself into the way of all that life.
Trumpists want to bring low-information and casual voters down to their miserable and scared mentality, and anger Dems into distraction with this disgusting garbage. It is also intended to take the concept of hope and positive change away, and make people care more about hurting and resenting others, instead of trying to improve their own lives and demanding more of their government in making a society that improves their chances of stability and improvement.

And guess who gave a lot of money to Citizens for Sanity in 2022?

WSJ: Musk funded Stephen Miller's superPAC, which ran some of the nastiest, most vile and vicious anti-immigrant and anti-trans ads in 2022 "more than $50 million of Musk’s money funded a series of advertising campaigns by a group called Citizens for Sanity" www.wsj.com/politics/pol...

[image or embed]

— Joe Sudbay (@joesudbay.bsky.social) October 2, 2024 at 3:57 PM

I think we found the immigrant who's trying to wreck American society.

It seems well past time for Dems to go hard at oligarchs like Musk, and the hate merchants in the GOP in general. We know that the GOP's attempts to ignite a panic against trans people has been a loser with the wider electorate in the 2020s, and if it can be connected to the reality that GOPs don't want to talk about, which is the growing economy and respectful, decent country that exists in the Real America under Biden-Harris.

And if Elon Musk and the Uihleins (major donors to the smear ads against Tammy Baldwin) can try to get their anti-tax, anti-regulation agenda put in via ads about non-issues, why can't Dems forcefully attack GOPs on real issues? Including the Project 2025 Agenda that would allow a Trump or Vance Administration to turn wide swaths of Americans into second-class citizens, while allowing soulless corporations to run wild over the rights and protections of everyone else?

The only way that these lowlife GOP ads work in depressing Dem turnout is if Dems don't fight back against this garbage and stand up for the values and decency of Real America. I understand the point of the positive "moving forward" kind of campaign that the Harris-Walz team has been hitting on, and it probably does help them with some voters (like my mother, who voted GOP for president in every year from 1980 through 2016, but now votes Dem). But the best way for this country to move forward is to crush the bad guys who want to keep us dumb, desperate, and distracted.

Why don't Dems do a little "divide and conquer" themselves? And you know what else would fire up Dem base voters and reduce the feelings of being up against a wall of oligarch-funded RW hate and BS? Having Dems Americans that the blind eye to Republican lawlessness that Merrick Garland and Joe Biden have given for 4 years will be ended with Kamala Harris as President. And Harris can be included in a group of younger Dems in charge that realize The System doesn't work on its own, but instead requires constant work and activity to keep this country functional for all Americans, not just an elite few.

Anger and mockery is a strong weapon, when the anger and mockery is accurate. And there's plenty of Trump/GOP targets to hit, if Dems want to step up and win this election. It also should resonante to the majority of Americans, and make the GOP's idiotic and hateful ads look lame by comparison.

Saturday, October 5, 2024

Big jobs report for September. In pretty much any way you want.

One month before the election, it was Jobs Report Friday this week! So what did we get?

Yep, it was a bigtime jobs report. On the payrolls side, gains were strong in a lot of areas, including continued strength in health care and a welcome rebound in leisure and hospitality. And the construction industry also kept hiring workers.
Employment in food services and drinking places rose by 69,000 in September, well above the average monthly gain of 14,000 over the prior 12 months.

Health care added 45,000 jobs in September, below the average monthly gain of 57,000 over the prior 12 months. Over the month, employment rose in home health care services (+13,000), hospitals (+12,000), and nursing and residential care facilities (+9,000).

Employment in social assistance increased by 27,000 in September, primarily in individual and family services (+21,000). Over the prior 12 months, social assistance had added an average of 21,000 jobs per month.

Construction employment continued to trend up in September (+25,000), similar to the average monthly gain over the prior 12 months (+19,000). Over the month, nonresidential specialty trade contractors added 17,000 jobs.
Also nice to see that unemployment dropped for the “good reason” – more people entering the work force, but even more Americans than that amount saying that they are now working.

“But c’mon Jake, you know this is going to be revised down, like they were in the past.” Revisions, you say?
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for July was revised up by 55,000, from +89,000 to +144,000, and the change for August was revised up by 17,000, from +142,000 to +159,000. With these revisions, employment in July and August combined is 72,000 higher than previously reported.
"But it's all foreigners that are getting the jobs. Try again, MAGAts.

So this is a blowout report, almost to a point where it’s too strong. Because it might slow down the speed of future interest rate cuts that the Federal Reserve may put in.
Within minutes, traders of futures that settle to the Fed's policy rate had all but abandoned bets on another upsized interest rate reduction before the end of this year, and moved to price in quarter-point reductions instead.

They are also pricing in an end point to the rate-cutting at somewhere between 3.25% and 3.75% by the middle of next year, above the 3.00% to 3.25% end-point range that traders had previously seen likely. The current range is 4.75% to 5.00%....

Friday's jobs report "is a potential game changer for the Fed and market expectations on the size and pace of future rate cuts," BMO economists wrote. "It also is a big upside risk to our consumer spending and GDP growth forecasts in the near-term."

Expectations could still change before the Fed's Nov. 6-7 policy meeting, which will come after fresh data on inflation and another monthly jobs report.
Oh no! We have a strong jobs market with good wage growth! Whatever will we do!

The wage increases are also nice to see, and continue a positive trend. We already knew that inflation-adjusted median household incomes had recovered back to 2019’s levels for 2023, and before today’s report, we had seen average hourly wages went up by 2.6% through August while the CPI only rose by 1.7%.

Now add in another 0.4% increase for September with hourly wages, and the knowledge that gas prices continued to trend down last month while food prices haven’t changed much, and it seems likely that those real wage gains are even larger now.

Republicans took the good jobs news in stride.

And Little Marco shrinks even more….

It again illustrates that a big question in this election comes down to whether voters are looking around and recognizing that the US has a strong economy with continued job growth and wage gains, and want to keep this going. Or do more voters buy the “crippling inflation and tough times” theme that Republicans are trying to sell (with no GOP solutions for these (non)-problems, mind you).

If we have an electorate that votes based on facts and reality, then Kamala Harris and the Dems should win. Which is likely why Republicans are spending so much ad money trying to convince people that what they’re seeing in their communities and in the economy in general isn’t real. Or that "scary" illegal immigrants and trans people are around every corner and.... existing?

Don’t be stupid, people. Believe what we see in the real world, and not the one that the TV ads and their oligarch funders are trying to convince you of.

Wednesday, October 2, 2024

In 2024, do we choose the MAGAland of Make-Believe, or deal with reality and go forward?

I was heading into work and heard Wisconsin writer Mike McCabe on the radio, and he mentioned his most recent substack column, which discussed how so much of today's political discourse exists in a Land of Make-Believe.

On stage stands a very famous man, perhaps sensing his appeal is wearing thin, maybe fearing what the mileage on his tread could mean to his future prospects. The very famous man, brimming with intention, certain the willing and able are large in number, hurls an audacious lie to the wind, confident it will float as far and wide as a dandelion’s seeds.
In Springfield, they’re eating the dogs . . . they’re eating the cats.
He didn’t care it wasn’t true, didn’t give a thought to how many this preposterous yet vicious lie would hurt. The very famous man’s consort, undoubtedly sensing his railcar is hitched to a runaway train, surely fearing the coming wreck, nevertheless did not try jumping to safety. He stayed on board.
If I have to create stories . . . then that’s what I’m going to do.
Lies like these ones are akin to nuclear blasts, causing devastation at ground zero before showering toxic fallout over a wide radius. There are the immediate casualties. Then there’s the collateral damage.
McCabe then mentions that a reader complained about McCabe's decision to write a novel, as there was too much fiction in our political world, and we didn't more in another form. McCabe uses that comment to note that the barrage of Trumpian lies in 2024 America is limiting the ability of many of us to see things as they are, and more importantly, to visualize what things can become.
Several things bother me about this reader’s reaction. It conflates fiction writing and dishonesty, as if fiction and false mean the same thing. They do not. It also conflates factuality and truth. The two can go hand in hand, but that doesn’t make them exactly alike. Nonfiction is confined by facts, and that can prevent the whole truth from being told. Fiction is more unbounded, depending on imagination to identify and describe encompassing truths. Works of nonfiction or fiction both can lie. Either can speak truth.

Most troubling to me is how pervasive and persistent dishonesty can disparage and discourage imagination. If we stick to the facts before us and call off the search for yet undiscovered truths, hope for human progress is lost. If we trust only what currently is and stop trying to imagine what could be, the potential of civilization to advance is crippled.
And when certain people spend all of their time being scared about things that aren’t real, they don’t care to go outside and see what’s actually happening, and deal with that reality. It limits our growth, and sets us back.

Republicans know they can’t win in November if the election is based on reality. So they do things such as blowing up isolated incidents into “rampant migrant crime” while ignoring the myriad more crimes that are committed by Americans with guns and committed against women on a daily basis.

This is also why Republicans keep having ads where GOP activists everyday voters complain about “crushing inflation” when inflation has been under control for the last 18 months, to a point where the Federal Reserve is now cutting interest rates. GOPs also never mention that ever-increasing corporate profits are likely a significant reason behind the price rises of the 2020s, because that would require them to mention that concern and possibly have to give a solution to it. And they'd have to introduce that into the BubbleWorld that many GOP-leaning voters live in, which is not something GOPs want.

And why this is done is illustrated in an excellent column from Rick Perlstein in the American Prospect today.

"Journalistic norms are not a suicide pact." prospect.org/politics/202...

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— Rick Perlstein (@rickperlstein.bsky.social) October 2, 2024 at 9:36 AM

He starts the column by looking back at an article from 2004 in The New Republic written by a young Chris Hayes, who was walking around Wisconsin trying to figure out what undecided voters wanted in an election that would be decided by less than 1% up here.
The future MSNBC host’s TNR piece was an account of the lessons he learned canvassing among undecided voters in Wisconsin for John Kerry. It incinerates a basic foundation of how political junkies think: “Perhaps the greatest myth about undecided voters is that they are undecided because of the ‘issues.’ That is, while they might favor Kerry on the economy, they favor Bush on terrorism; or while they are anti-gay marriage, they also support social welfare programs.”

Chris noted that while there were a few people he talked to like that, “such cases were exceedingly rare. More often than not, when I asked undecided voters what issues they would pay attention to as they made up their minds I was met with a blank stare, as if I’d just asked them to name their favorite prime number … the very concept of the ‘issue’ seemed to be almost completely alien to most of the undecided voters I spoke to.”
Which means that there isn't a lot of deep analysis going on with these voters. They're just going on vibes and feelings.

And that's where Trumpian idiocy comes in, because by giving simple reasons and shallow statements to deal with real, complex problems, it takes the place of the honest, hard work and adjustments that real solutions require. Perlstein says that this allows for weak, vulnerable Americans to be susceptible to loudmouthed strongmen who don't ask anything more of them beyond "blame these others for why things are going wrong for you" and not have to put any more effort to improve your life.
Millions of pages have been filled by scholars explaining the psychological appeal of fascism, most converging on the blunt fact that it offers the fantasy of reversion to an infantile state, where nothing can come and harm you, because you will be protected by an all-powerful figure who will always put you first, always put you first. It is simply indisputable that this promise can seduce and transform even intelligent, apparently mature, kind-hearted people formerly committed to liberal politics. I’ve written before in this column about the extraordinary film The Brainwashing of My Dad, in which director Jen Senko describes the transformation of her Kennedy-liberal dad under the influence of right-wing talk radio and Fox News—and also how, after she explained the premise of her film for a Kickstarter campaign, scores of people came out of the woodwork to share similar stories about their own family members.

I’ve learned a lot about the psychological dynamics at work from the X feed of a psychologist named Julie Hotard, who drills down on the techniques Fox uses to trigger infantilization in viewers. The people at Fox who devise these scripts, one imagines, are pretty sophisticated people. Trump’s gift is to be able to grunt out the same stuff just from his gut. Trump’s appeals have become noticeably more infantile in precisely this way. When he addresses women voters, for instance: “I am your protector. I want to be your protector … You will no longer be abandoned, lonely, or scared. You will no longer be in danger …”...
Perlstein then combines Hayes' observations of undecided Sconnies from 20 years ago, and how these types of voters are basically deciding what American reality they are going to live in.
I imagine that what at least some of them — certainly more than those supposedly entering the two candidates’ issue positions onto spreadsheets to study, ruling out the candidate not “specific” enough about their fiscal policies — are undecided because they are poised at a threshold. “Undecided” is a way station between the final surrender to the Trumpian fantasy, and all the imaginary comforts it offers, and sticking with the rest of us in the reality-based community, despite all the existential terrors the real world affords.
It really feels like this election comes down to a relatively straightforward question. Do you believe that the country is going downhill, times are tough, and scary brown people are marauding the streets and making you cower in your basement? Or do you go outside, touch grass, look around, and realize things are much better than the hellscape we were in 4 years ago. And that you want to live in a diverse and becalmed country where respect for others is a virtue, versus something to be taken advantage of.

It seems like an easy choice, but it also involves thinking and making an effort to care. What MAGA is counting on is that enough Americans won’t do those things, and allow them to grab power through fear, idiocy, and self-centeredness. And if the bad guys win, we will have rulers that are not based in reality, dealing with non-problems and residing in BubbleWorld instead of real life.

The MAGA-GOPs would be using their power to actively build their Bubble of BS higher, and put those lies and deflections into policies and laws. We would then have a country that wouldn't be worth saving, because enough of its citizenry has decided it doesn't want to deal with reality, and there will be no sense for those of us living in the reality-based community to exert any effort to dig these jackwagons out of the hole that MAGAts will have put us in.

Monday, September 30, 2024

Profits also revised higher, and illustrates the GREEDflation of the 2020s.

In looking at the all the upward revisions in last week's GDP report, I noticed a significant part of the big increase in previously reported national income over the year was unreported corporate profits.

Sure enough, if you compare the "before and after" numbers on corporate profits in the last 2 years, you'll see that there was very little decline in profits at the end of 2022, unlike what was originally reported. And the increase in profits since the end of 2022 is more than twice what we originally knew them to be.

And that puts an interesting light on any report of "inflation", as the backup data in the GDP report shows more than ever that much of the post-COVID price increases have been nothing more than greedflation. For example, look at how gross profit margins have jumped since the end of 2019, after not changing much in the 7 years before then.

We also see that total pre-tax profits are up more than 50% in the last 4 1/2 years.

These numbers show that corporations have had plenty of pricing power in recent years, and it has cost Americans a lot of money as a result. The least these businesses can do is to have some of that profit-hoarding incentive taken away by returning corporations to the higher tax rates than they had before 2017's GOP Tax Scam. And it shows that Senator Tammy Baldwin was on the right track when she was introducing bills that would crack down on noncompetitive price-gouging and "shrinkflation" in the food industry.

It's not higher costs or "overspending" that has been a big culprit in the post-2019 increases in American prices. It's the greed, stupid. And only Democrats are going to do something to stop that greed.

Saturday, September 28, 2024

Biden-Harris economy grew even more than we knew, while Trump policies = stagflation, job loss

In addition to the strong positive revisions in disposable income (which I detailed in this post), we found out this week that economic growth under the Biden-Harris Administration was even stronger than we already knew it to be.

For 2019, the increase in real GDP was revised up 0.1 percentage point, from 2.5 percent to 2.6 percent, primarily reflecting an upward revision to consumer spending (Table 2).

» For 2020, the decrease in real GDP was the same as previously published at 2.2 percent, primarily reflecting an upward revision to government spending that was offset by a downward revision to consumer spending.

» For 2021, the increase in real GDP was revised up 0.3 percentage point, from 5.8 percent to 6.1 percent, primarily reflecting an upward revision to consumer spending.

For 2022, the increase in real GDP was revised up 0.6 percentage point, from 1.9 percent to 2.5 percent, primarily reflecting upward revisions to consumer spending and nonresidential fixed investment.

For 2023, the percent change in real GDP was revised up 0.4 percentage point, from 2.5 percent to 2.9 percent, primarily reflecting upward revisions to consumer spending, nonresidential fixed investment, and residential fixed investment.
This revises away most of the inflation-related decline in real GDP that was originally reported for the first half of 2022, and shows a very good track record of growth in the Biden-Harris years.

American incomes are also significantly higher than what we originally knew, especially in the last couple of years.

However, I'll note that much of that increase in income for 2023 comes from even-larger corporate profits vs increases in wages and salaries. Which tells me that corporations can afford to return to the higher pre-GOP Tax Scam tax rates that they would face in 2025, and that a whole lot of 2022's and 2023's inflation was indeed greedflation.

Know what could derail this good economy and unwind these trends? ELECTING DONALD TRUMP. Especially in light of a new analysis which says Trump’s plans (or “concepts of plans”) would cause significant damage to the US economy and re-ignite inflation.
The Trump agenda would cause weaker economic growth, higher inflation and lower employment, according to a working paper released Thursday by the Peterson Institute for International Economics. In some cases, the damage could continue through 2040.

“We find that ironically, despite his ‘make the foreigners pay’ rhetoric, this package of policies does more damage to the US economy than to any other in the world,” the Peterson Institute working paper from researchers Warwick McKibbin, Megan Hogan and Marcus Noland concluded.
Well that doesn’t sound like a good idea at all. Why would Trump’s policies be such a self-inflicted wound?

Even in a “low” scenario where only 1.3 million undocumented workers are deported and other countries opt not to retaliate against Trump’s tariffs, employment (measured as hours worked) would fall by 2.7% in 2028 relative to a baseline forecast, according to the paper.

Inflation would climb to 6% by 2026, the researchers found. By 2028, consumer prices are [cumulatively] 20% higher…..

The researchers also modeled a “high” scenario that incorporates retaliatory tariffs from other nations and 8.3 million undocumented workers getting deported. In that scenario, employment would be 9% lower than baseline by 2028 and inflation would surge to 9.3% by 2026. GDP would be 9.7% lower than otherwise.
Here’s the report for yourself. Feel free to dig in for yourself and see what other tidbits you find in it.

I do note a couple of charts that show the effects on specific industries, and one industry in particular that could lose a lot of jobs is durable manufacturing.

Now, the argument with tariffs and deportations by Trump is that the workers that are left will make more money, and that more items will be made in America because it becomes more cost-effective to do so. But in order for that to work, you need demand for all products (US and otherwise) to stay near where they would have been, which means that people aren’t thrown out of work, and businesses can still grow.

The Peterson Institute says that wouldn’t happen, and the price spikes would be an extra hit to a whole lot more Americans beyond the 4 million+ (based on 2.7% decline in baseline employment) thrown out of work.

Sure, the Peterson Institute has a neoliberal point of view, where they think free trade is best for everything and that nothing should be done to protect American industry or workers. So have a grain of salt with this report. But we also lived through Trump's tariffs and border controls of 2018-2019, when US manufacturing fell into recession and this was a common headline in our part of the country.

We're coming up on the 5 year anniversary of Trump's AG Secretary telling farmers to "get big or get out" at the World Dairy Expo, by the way.

Let's not return to the bad old days of Trump-onomics and keep going in the right direction with Kamala Harris and other Dems, shall we?

Friday, September 27, 2024

US incomes in Biden-Harris era better than we knew. We are in great shape today vs Trump years

Friday had the release of the always-important income and spending reports. And the numbers for August looked good all around.

Not only was both types of inflation in the report still in check (and heading downward) in the Summer of 2024, but real disposable incomes continued to rise, and spending continued to increase at a solid level for August, It portends good Q3 growth numbers for the economy as a whole.

But maybe the most remarkable part of this report wasn’t in what was happening in August 2024, but in what we found out about what happened earlier this year, and in the time period of the entire Biden-Harris Administration.
Today’s release presents results from the annual update of the National Economic Accounts. The revisions for income and consumer spending estimates begin with January 2019. Monthly estimates for January through March of 2024 include revisions resulting from the incorporation of first-quarter wage and salary data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages program. Estimates for wages and salaries for April through July of 2024 have been updated to reflect revised monthly data from the BLS Current Employment Statistics program.
Much like where we saw in Thursday’s report, it showed that the economy in the first 3 years of the Biden-Harris Administration were even better than we knew of. That’s especially true when looking at real disposable incomes starting in the middle of 2022, and especially wages and salaries at the end of 2023 and in early 2024.

That’s a significant difference, with inflation-adjusted disposable income per capita nearly $2,000 higher than we thought it was. It also shows that real disposable income per capita restored its 2021 non-stimmy-check highs at the start of 2023, and has beaten inflation by more than 3.5% in the 18 months. This change means that the savings rate wasn’t under 4% for most of 2023, but instead was mostly over 5%, which makes for a more balanced and healthy economy, and means perhaps American consumers aren't as close to the edge as the earlier data indicated.

Yes, people are annoyed by higher prices, but they have the incomes to handle it, and a large portion of Americans are making more at their jobs than they did 4 and 5 years ago, even after inflation. UMass economist Arin Rube points out how everyday line workers have had larger gains since the start of 2020, and are seeing their inflation-adjusted incomes continue to beat the 21st Century trend.

So when the Trump campaign tells Americans they’re suffering under “inflation” and “hard times”, they’re trying to incept something that doesn’t match the situation that people are living through in September 2024. And like a lot of this election, it seems like the result will heavily correlate to whether you base things on what MAGA wants you to believe, or if you believe in the things that are actually happening.

Tuesday, September 24, 2024

Harris campaign isn't playing the Coastal media's game, and takes it to the voters

Great article from writer Drew Magary in SF Gate that gives a rightful kiss-off to the insular fools at the New York Times.

It finally happened. The Times had managed to write itself completely out of relevance. I wrote about it. www.sfgate.com/sf-culture/a...

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— Drew Magary (@drewmagary.bsky.social) September 24, 2024 at 8:06 AM

...The Times cares more about its place in the power structure than in actually affecting that power structure. It gladly cedes prominent column space to bad faith politicians who would like to eradicate whole demographics of the American population. It dabbles in trans panic as a sort of weird hobby. And it scoffs at criticism from the progressive wing of the Democratic Party while going out of its way to heed criticism from a Republican Party that would drop a load of napalm on Times headquarters if ever given the authority.
That is an excellent paragraph. In 2024, the Times are about their own elite Coastal circles, and their own self-interests. They are NOT about telling the public the truth about what is going on.

And the Harris campaign has picked up on this, as they are refusing to play the 20th Century-era game of "bow to the demands of the Acela Corridor media", which Magary approves of. Especially given how the Times could play a major role in exposing fascism and evil in our politicis, given the large number of downsized newsrooms across the country. But it chooses not to.
...I work in an industry that’s been gutted from the inside out this century — you’ve heard about that part, too — leaving the Times as the dominant primordial beast in the serious newsgathering business. It has the biggest readership of any paper by far and, as such, critics like me have treated hate-reading the Times as an act of public service. My opinion was that the Times’ influence was so vast, especially among higher-ups in both the federal government and the private sector, that it had to be called out anytime it failed to call things as they clearly were (daily). To dump on the Times was to speak truth to power.

I no longer hold that opinion. Harris is winning this election right now in large part because she has avoided legacy outlets, the Times foremost among them, altogether. Her team understands that it behooves these outlets to have a close race, which means that they’ll seize on any gaffe Harris makes if it gives them a chance to falsely equivocate her remarks to those of Trump screaming, “THEY’RE EATING THE DOGS!” to kick up a racial holy war. Team Harris has no interest in helping the Times sanewash Trump more than it already has, so they’ve decided that the only way to win the game is not to play.

It was the right move, and it’s proven that the Times’ influence is exactly as large as you and I pretend it to be. It has a big-ass readership, but that readership is mostly there to play Wordle and, as ESPN’s Mina Kimes noted, the vast majority of them are already in the bag for Democrats anyway. Republican presidential nominee former U.S. President Donald Trump debates Democratic presidential nominee U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris for the first time during the presidential election campaign, at the National Constitution Center on Sept. 10, 2024, in Philadelphia.
Instead, the Harris campaign is speaking directly to the voters and reporters in the places where this election will be decided.

Including here.

And made some news along the way.

That's what you need to do, Kamala. Not only in speaking to outlets that reach the voters you need to reach (instead of the comfortable Coastal Wordle-doodlers that read the New York Times), but also in recognizing that Federal politics is also not working under our antiquated systems, and that they're in need of real change as well.