(Pre-shutdown) Jobs numbers tomorrow!

Quick reminder that tomorrow should feature the release of Wisconsin's job numbers for September. My instinct is that they'll be pretty good, because unemployment claims are at their lowest levels in several years in Wisconsin.

But let's not confuse that with giving credit to Walker/WisGOP policies, because the U.S. also had its lowest amount of unemployment claims since the time before the Great Recession. At least until the shutdown hit at the start of October. As this chart shows, Wisconsin's year-over-year decline in unemployment claims is no different than the rest of the country, as evidenced by the purple line creeping back above 0% the last 2 weeks.



Interestingly, the shutdown has kept the U.S's jobs report for September from being released, so it'll be slightly difficult to put the state's numbers into context. But if the Baggers in Congress don't screw things up even more tonight, the shutdown will officially be over, and we'll be able to run those reports soon enough once the feds get back online.

Yep, property tax "relief" expands budget deficit

I knew there the WisGOPs were trying to rush this property tax "relief" through for a reason. And it looks like my instincts were right, as the Legislative Fiscal Bureau showed that passing the $100 million giveaway and the rest of Gov Walker's tepid "jobs package" will end up increasing the structural deficit in the next budget to $725 million. This figure also includes the "super expanded 2013 surplus" the was part of the DOA report released yesterday, and reflects a few items that can be laid directly at actions done since the November 2012 elections.

1. The Koo-Koo tax cuts are a big factor. Basically Walker and WisGOP have decided to blow this one-time surplus (which LFB pointed out was due in large part to a booming stock market, and not due to job or wage growth) on $648 million in tax cuts. If this sounds familiar, it should, because in 2001 another Dubya did the same strategy in D.C., and another Scott (McCallum) blew a big surplus on one-time fixes and spending in Wisconsin. The result? A major deficit blew up once the economy turned south later that year. And given how the Baggers are trying to blow up the country's credit rating with their dumb antics in D.C., does anyone else get a sense of deja vu coming along, in a lot of bad ways?

2. The Walker Administration refused to follow the advice of the state's Transportation Finance and Policy Commission, and did not raise the gas tax or other related fees in the latest budget. Instead, the Walker folks borrowed hundreds of millions of dollars for a road-building binge, and transferred $216 million from the General Fund to the Transportation Fund to help pay for public transit on a one-time basis (the raise in funding was relatively small, but the money for it essentially got paid out of the General Fund). The LFB assumes this transfer will not continue, which means the Transportation Fund faces a major deficit in the next budget as well, since it'll have to come up with that extra money somewhere. In addition, if that transfer to the Transportation Fund DOES continue, then it raises the deficit another $216 million, to $941 million. It is a classic "kick the can down the road" strategy that really puts the state up against the wall for the next budget.

3. Now there's this $100 million giveaway to make schools reduce property taxes, along with some smaller symbolic measures to close the alleged "skills gap" for certain jobs (something I have pointed out is largely due to employers refusing to pay Wisconsin workers a competitive wage over having unskilled workers). I'll leave out the debate about whether property tax relief is the right strategy as opposed to meeting other needs, and instead make the following point about how this alleged relief is being carried out.

If your goal is to give Wisconsin property owners a noticeable tax break, you wouldn't give a tepid tax cut phased in over 2 years, where $40 million is added in year 1 (and can pretty much only be used for tax relief) and $60 million more is added in year 2 (and can conceivably be used for other means along with tax relief). What you'd do instead is throw all $100 million of tax relief into year 1, and allow year 2 to stay as it is in the budget. This would do the following 3 things.

A. Gives a much bigger property tax break to Wisconsinites for year 1. Instead, LFB anticipates that overall school property taxes will still go up for 2014, even with this cut, so most people won't notice it, and will rightfully be skeptical when Walker tries to claim "I cut property taxes" in the 2014 campaign.

B. Total state funding for schools would face a minor drop of less than 1% for 2015, but that would be easy to absorb, coming on the heels of a major increase in state aid for this year. All Districts would do is use more state funding to make up for expenses in 2014-15, as opposed to only going for property tax relief, and it would give a full year for districts to make that adjustment, perhaps allowing for a smooth transition from year-to-year. Instead, this current plan will do nothing for increasing the level of services in public schools in either this year OR next year.

C. Putting all $100 million in year 1 would not increase the structural deficit, as year 2 totals would not change. Instead, the $60 million in added funds for year 2 under the current bill now becomes assumed in the budget for future years, which drives up the structural deficit, and means there has to be a place to cut or raise taxes to take care of those extra funds.

In other words, the school "relief" bill doesn't give enough bang for the buck, it doesn't improve education in Wisconsin, and it's fiscally stupid because it drives up our deficit for the next budget.

So why do it? Because Walker and WisGOP care a whole lot more about talking points than better outcomes, and because it allows things to be screwed up even more long-term, tying the hands of the governor that follows Walker, much like how Bush's idiotic fiscal policies left Obama in a major bind for deficits and debt, and encouraged more austerity-based policies. And if it's screwed up enough, then Wisconsin will have little choice but to sell off needed services to investors and other campaign contributors.

Which is just the way these d-bags like it. Yep, this silly $100 million giveaway is straight out of the "starve the beast" textbook.

More on the silly property tax giveaway

Now that I'm back at home, I have a little more time to reflect on WisGOP's relatively meaningless attempt to reduce property taxes on schools. And others have, too.

First is the revelation from One Wisconsin Now that shows this bill was only drafted last week, after Mary Burke entered the Governor's race. Heck, it still doesn't have an official bill number (just a drafting number), and it indicates to me that this bill was rushed in a lame attempt to grab headlines and get a talking point. Then again, "Ready! Fire! aim!" and picking politics over developing policies that work is kind of a Walker trademark, so I suppose we shouldn't be surprised by such a silly move.

The Legislative Fiscal Bureau still has yet to say what the effect of giving away $40 million this year and $60 million next year will have on this budget, and the next one. As it stands, this $100 million would put the state into a deficit by the end of 2015, which would be illegal under state rules, although it is possible that the Walker Administration is correct that the year-end surplus for 2013 will be higher than previously predicted, so they'd technically be able to get away with it. But if this is true, there's another conversation to have, because we need to back up and see if this is the proper way to take advantage of this one-time upside budget number.

I'm not the only one asking for legislators to take a step back and look at the big picture. The Wisconsin Budget Project points out that there are a lot of other directions that the Walker Administration and the Legislature could take, but aren't.

•What is the source of the increased revenue? Is it from a sustained upturn in revenue projections, or primarily from a one-time surplus?

•Will this proposal increase the state’s structural deficit? If it will, would it make more sense to use the revenue for fiscally responsible purposes, such as reducing bonding or increasing the required minimum balance (which lawmakers have promised to do in the statutes, but every two years they postpone for two more years)?

•If the larger surplus results in part from reduced spending, do those spending projections take into account the probable $52 million reduction in the federal share of Medicaid spending?

And as I mentioned earlier today, this measure won't do anything when it comes to helping schools meet the cost and space constraints in their system, because while there is an added $100 million in state spending being proposed, there is ZERO being added to the districts' revenue limits, which means they can't spend another dime in this year, and are extremely limited in doing so next year.

The lack of increased revenue for schools is one of the many points brought up by State Senator (and hopefully future candidate for Governor) Kathleen Vinehout.

Schools are limited in what they can spend by state imposed revenue limits. Many frugal school boards don’t tax to the extent they are allowed. But as state money shrinks, board members are left with few options.

Local school boards are now preparing budgets for the next school year. Many members told me the “tools” the Governor gave the districts are not working. Costs are increasing faster than boards can make cuts. Especially hard hit are rural schools. Many districts have combined classrooms, cut electives, have multi-certified teachers, share staff with neighboring districts, share sports teams and long ago got rid of much support and administrative staff.

School boards now have no choice but to levy to the maximum allowed by law. Meaning possible big property tax increases for residents.

Enter the Governor’s new “property tax relief”.

And as Sen. Vinehout brings up, this added $100 million and the previously-approved small increase that was already in the budget for 2013-15 still doesn't come close to recovering the $800 million a year that was cut out of school aids in Gov. Walker's first budget. We are not better off econimically, our property taxes are still going up, and we've had an entirely unnecessary 3 years of teacher-bashing and anger as a result of Walker's and WisGOP's horrible education policies.

So while I severely doubt this will happen, I'd encourage the State Legislature to take the time to discuss if a one-time, minimal property tax limitation is the proper way to handle this $100 million. I certainly don't see a need to have it be part of a special legislative session, especially since we're already in a regular Legislative session, and slamming this through and making school boards and DPI staff have go through a large amount of adjustments and extra work in the next 3 weeks seems to be unnecessary. Why not let things play out for the 2013-'14 school year, and if the budget battle and debt limit is decided in the next week or two, THEN come back and propose the ntire $100 million of relief for the next school year? Or use the surplus funds to make decisions on meeting other priorities.

But wait, that would entail responsible governing and not playing cheap, cynical games. And God knows Scott Walker would never choose good governance over talk-show type stunts designed to get a short-term bump from low-information voters. Which explains why we have this silly, symbolic move being brought up.

LATE EDIT: The Department of Administration released its year-end fiscal report, and it says the projected cash surplus ended up at $759 million, which is $89 million above the previous projection. That pretty much pays for the $100 million giveaway, but still leaves the $545 million structural deficit in the next budget....and possibly higher if revenues don't pick up like people project it to.

That $100 million won't go far

Still unpacking and working, so not much time to talk yet, but here are a few quick thoughts on the WisGOP property tax plan.

The LFB has released its analysis of the proposed property tax relief bill, and I'd highly recommend that you not plan any major purchases around your extra funds.

The bill would increase general school aids funding by $40 million GPR in 2013-14 and $60 million GPR in 2014-15. Under the bill, general school aids funding would increase from $4,293,658,000 in the 2012-13 base year to $4,381,594,600 in 2013-14 and $4,475,960,500 in 2014-15. Compared to the base [of 2012-13 funds], the general aids appropriation would increase by $87,936,600 in 2013-14 and $182,302,500 in 2014-15 under the bill.

Because the additional general aid funding under the bill would be subject to revenue limits, it is estimated that the statewide school district levy would be reduced under the bill by $40 million in 2013-14 and $60 million in 2014-15 from current law. As a result, the projected school district levy would be reduced by an estimated 0.8% in 2013-14 from the level projected at the time Act 20 was enacted (from an estimated $4,735 million under Act 20 to an estimated $4,695 million under the bill), and by an estimated 1.2% in 2014-15 (from an estimated $4,797 million under Act 20 to an estimated $4,737 million under the bill). The actual school levy in 2012-13 was $4,656.1 million.

So while property taxes will be reduced FROM WHAT THEY WOULD HAVE BEEN for the next 2 years, they're still going to be up $39 million vs. today in 2014, and up $81 million from today in 2015.

I'll forward you to the Wisconsin Soapbox blog for more analysis. Andy rightfully calls out this as symbolic BS that does little to nothing to reduce class sizes or improve public education in any sort of way. It's just a shift of funding from property taxes to general state taxes- not a bad thing on its face if you feel that's where the burdens should fall, but also not intended to change outcomes.

The Soapbox article also links to this report from the LFB that dropped late last week, which says property taxes might not be so high in 2014 for a different reason- dropping property values. In fact, the LFB now predicts that the median-valued home in Wisconsin DROPPED MORE THAN $3,000, from $151,148 in 2012, to $148,000 in 2013. Now your community's standards may differ, but that seems to indicate that any property tax "cut" you might be getting this year is more than offset from the loss of home value you're going to have.

So how's that "cutting of teacher take-home pay and demonizing public employees" strategy working out for us? I'll have more later this week after I unpack more boxes.

Moving on up

My wife and I are in the process of moving to a bigger place on the west side, so that's why I've been quiet here recently.

But I'm keeping my eyes opened, and among the things I've spied include the Wisconsin Budget Project showing that Wisconsin may have to spend $52 million more in Medicaid funds .

Gov Walker's decision to TeaBag the expanded Medicaid funding that was part of Obamacare looks dumber by the day, doesn't it?

I'll be back next week to talk some more, and we might even have some data to go with it once the shutdown ends.

2014- 1 in, 1 out, 1 to come?

After surviving a trip to Michelle Bachmann-land to take part in a wedding this weekend, it was back to work today. And quite an interesting day in Wisconsin politics it is.

1. Mary Burke is in for Gov. No real surprise here, since Burke's name had been floated by insiders for months, and that she had been working behind the scenes. She's even got her own little bio to introduce yourself to her.



I'm a bit skeptical of a Burke candidacy, but it's more because of a perception that DPW Chair Mike Tate has been trying to promote her candidacy behind the scenes and push other candidates out of the race. Unlike most blogging types in this state, I've actually seen Mary Burke in a public job, at a candidate forum when she ran for Madison School Board in 2012, and I liked what I heard, as she clearly understands that poverty is the key predictor of student achievement). She also does favor union and school board control of charter schools (a key concern I'd have), although she's not as good on teacher unions and pay as I'd like.

But while Burke is knowledgeable on economic issues and education, she also comes off as very milquetoast, and I have my doubts on how head-on she'll be willing to take on the failed Walker Administration, which she will need to do if she is to win. She also needs to step out, define what she stands for more (or else the right-wing lie machine will do it for her), and MEET WITH THE VOTERS. It seems that the Dem grassroots was the one DPW group Burke hasn't spent a lot of time with, and that'll have to change if she is to get my support in August 2014. I'm keeping an open mind on Burke, and anything's better than Walker in November 2014 (and I will vehemently support the Dem opponent), but I also am looking for more at this point from the Dems' candidate. Maybe Burke will bring it, or maybe someone else will (see below)

2. JB Van Hollen is OUT for Attorney General. This announcement surprised me, and I don't think it was because this partisan hack wanted to rain on Mary Burke's parade. There's something going on here, but I can't figure out what it is. Is Van Hollen scared of some kind of TeaBag challenge (hilarious because Van Hollen has covered for pretty much every sickening Walker agenda item, including his recent defense of ALEC and Leah Vukmir against open records requests), or is it because he knows something's about to come down and he doesn't want to have to face the voters as it happens? One Wisconsin Now has been all over Van Hollen asking for an investigation into the United Sportsmen of Wisconsin shenanigans, and Van Hollen doing nothing in that fiasco would look like an obvious cover-up. Maybe he will do something, and not running keeps the Sykesists and other GOP dimwits from primarying him out of office next August (I kid...kinda).

And what is Van Hollen's future endgame with this move? He's got a political future, but if you're a GOP, things are kind of blocked in the next year. There's no Senate race in 2014 and Ron Johnson is the incumbent for 2016. If Walker does run for governor, DB-VH certainly won't run there. Is he waiting for 2018, when Tammy Baldwin would be up for re-election in the Senate and it would be unlikely that Walker would be in the picture for Governor then (either because Walker lost in 2014, or he'd be on the verge of leaving for "real money")? And perhaps 2018 is enough of a break to allow Van Hollen to resurface from the ashes if WisGOP does get their ass kicked in 2014 (not out of the realm of possibility, especially with the Republican brand going into the toilet due to DC Baggers and Walker's failures). The A-G jockeying for both parties might be more interesting than the Guv doings in the next few months.

3. Who else gets in? For Guv, I am fairly certain Mary Burke will not be the only major candidate. State Sen. Kathleen Vinehout has been making all the indications of someone going for the guv job, and has been actively going to several meet-and-greets and other types of fundraisers outside of her Western Wisconsin district. The Vinehout campaign release sure sounded like someone who wasn't backing off going for the gold.

I wish Mary Burke the best. Politics is fun, exhilarating and important. Running for office is a great education. Everybody should do it at least once.

I've made no secret about being a big Vinehout fan- how can I not like a candidate who writes weekly wonky blogs? And she exposes GOP BS in places that many don't look, like when Vinehout humiliated State Sen. Alberta Darling in a Senate Education Committee meeting on charter schools last week, showing how SB 76 removes local control of charters, and funnels money away from public schools.

If Vinehout officially gets in the guv's race (she's said she won't announce till after January, though the Burke announcement might make her want to speed that up), the Dem primary will be festive and have a positive energy and type of debate that I think would help whoever came out of that August election, both in name recognition, and in making that candidate more battle-tested.

There's plenty of time between now and August, but with today's developments, that August election is all of a sudden looking like an election that will have plenty in play. And it feels like a lot of other developments will hit in the meantime in Wisconsin- both before and after the Baggers finish having their temper-tantrum in DC.

United Sportsmen scandal- where we are, where it's going

The last couple of days for the United Sportsmen of Wisconsin scandal have had some amazing developments, on top of the sordid things we already knew (check out Part 1 if you need a refresher). The Republican spin job to try to get out of this includes another GOP rep resigning his seat to cash in (the 3rd in recent weeks), and some ridiculous attempts to excuse and deflect the issue.

Let's start with yesterday, when an emboldened Democratic contingent put together their own bill for outdoors grants, and asked for all applicants for this grant to be 501-(c)3 non-profits (the non-political type that United Sportsmen couldn't prove it was eligible to be).

GOP Legislators were peeved that they had to deal with this issue- when they drop the always-classy "Democrat proposal" line in the title of their press release, you know they're annoyed. Not surprising that they'd be defensive, but what made this notable is that the first release came from Senate Natural Resources Chair Neal Kedzie, who spit out the following.

However, I certainly hope the authors are sincere in their intent and not simply looking to score political points with some of the inflammatory rhetoric and sniping expressed earlier today. If the authors can truly put their politics aside, as they mentioned at the press conference, then perhaps we can have an honest dialogue in the weeks to come.

"Honest dialogue," Sen. Kedzie? That's rich, since you were publically claiming your son got beat up by "liberals" 2 weeks before the last November election, without any evidence to back your claim up. And given that your boy later asked for the investigation to be dropped (after the election, of course), it seems to indicate he actually got his drunk ass kicked in a bartime fight that had nothing to do with politics. But you weren't about toning down the rhetoric with "honest dialogue" then, were ya Neal?

But I digress, and back to the Wisconsin Sportsmen scandal. It's quite clear that WisGOP wants this issue to go away, and isn't taking any steps to investigate the grant or what Scott Suder, Gov Walker, or DNR officials knew and when they knew it. However, the near-daily articles in the Journal-Sentinel and other outlets was making that impossible, so today WisGOP tried another strategy. They announced that Suder was conveniently leaving the $94,000 position at the Public Service Commission that he was going to start on Monday, and instead was going to be a lobbyist for Wisconsin's paper industry. And of course, a main player in Wisconsin's paper industry is Koch-owned Georgia Pacific Industries, who have 6 facilities in the state. But I'm sure that's just a coincidence.

So what happens to the job Suder would have had at the Public Service Commission. Well, looks like Scott Walker already had someone picked out.

Today, Chairperson Phil Montgomery announced that Representative Jeff Stone has accepted the position of Division Administrator for the Division of Water, Compliance, and Consumer Affairs. This transition will take place once Representative Stone has vacated his position within the Assembly.

"Jeff will be a tremendous addition to the Public Service Commission, his service to the state as a legislator whom has served on a number of important committees will be a great asset to Wisconsin's future" said Public Service Commission Chairperson Phil Montgomery. "Jeff is a solid voice of reason in the State Assembly and will bring that 'Wisconsin First' mentality to the Public Service Commission."

Of course, among that "Wisconsin First" mentality that Rep. Stone has had is his unflagging backing of voter ID and other forms of election rigging. Stone also was a co-sponsor and strong supporter of the Mining Bill, and he will have some oversight over mining issues and the related water quality regulations that may be part of it.

The justifications from the Walker Administration on the Suder-for-Stone trade are laughable. Take a look at this from the Madison.com summary of today's events.

“During Scott Suder’s initial discussions with PSC, he mentioned this other opportunity may present itself, and it did,” said Walker spokeswoman Julie Lund. “We wish him well in his new position in the private sector.”

Oh, so this opportunity just happened to be out there, and Scott Suder changed his mind, leaving the public sector to be a paper industry lobbyist. And Jeff Stone was all ready to take the PSC job when it popped open, and he'll leave the Assembly in 10 days. It's amazing how easily that all worked out, especially as Walker was starting to receive major heat for hiring Suder under these iffy circumstances.

Fortunately, Assembly Dem leader Peter Barca was having none of it.

“The fact that the Republicans are engaged in a game of musical chairs indicates they know there are serious problems with the $500,000 grant Republicans directed to political allies under the guise of a hunting education grant and further proves Republicans knew that their budget measure would fleece taxpayers.

“This does not resolve the many questions swirling around the broad, scandalous betrayal of hunters and taxpayers. And this should be a huge red flag to the public and hunters that there is very likely far more fire behind all this smoke.

And I think Rep. Barca is showing where this scandal is heading. Rep. Stone is going to have to be formally confirmed to the PSC job, and I think it might be a good time for Dems to raise the question when his confirmation comes up. A few Open Records requests to see how Walker and the DOA handled the hire seem to be in order, determining whether Suder really did have his eye on being a paper lobbyist, and to see why this job wasn't opened back up to the general public once Suder was pushed out resigned the appointment.

It makes you wonder going on at this PSC Division that a qualified public servant can't know about and administer over? Neither Suder nor Stone (a printing shop owner) have overwhelming expertise on the subject, so I think we need to find out just what made Jeff Stone such a great fit for this job. The fact that an important gig dealing with water quality and related regulations was kept in the extremely partisan GOP family should make anyone suspicious.

It's also not normal when 5% of the Assembly GOP contingent all pull the plug on their political careers in the middle of a session. Especially when Suder, Stone and Mark Honadel were all major supporters and sponsors of the Mining Bill- a bill that United Sportsmen of Wisconsin actively supported and lobbied for. If Gov Walker's Administration thinks removing Scott Suder and replacing him with Jeff Stone will cause the United Sportsmen issue to go away from people's minds when they go to the polls in 13 months and 1 day, I think they've got another thing coming.

See, the pattern of corruption and cronyism with WisGOP runs deep, with United Sportsmen just being the latest in a long line of transgressions. It's up to us and the Dems to make sure they aren't allowed to get off the hook for cheating the people of Wisconsin by funneling funds and power among their little GOP boys' and girls' club. Between the potential money-laundering and the mining bill connections to the WisGOP reps that are stepping through the revolving door, there is plenty of corruption angles to investigate with the United Sportsmen of Wisconsin issue. Our media needs to take the final step to connect the dots that they've done well to expose in this disgusting case.

We can't trust the GOP-run Legislature to honestly look into these issues, since revelations that may come from it could hurt their chances in next year's elections (and it already looks tough enough in 2014 if you're a GOP). Attorney General J.B. Van Hollen is too busy covering up for Leah Vukmir and ALEC, and refused to help the FBI during the John Doe investigation in Milwaukee so he can't be trusted to do the right thing. Therefore, it is time to demand Dane County DA Ismael Ozanne and federal investigators take over to look into this Madison-based sketchiness. And unlike Milwaukee's John Chisholm, I wouldn't expect Ozanne or the feds to chicken out when it comes time to connect the final dots- to the guy in the Governor's Office, and to the corporates pulling his strings.