Walker, Clarke would follow the failed policies of Ferguson Police Chief

Like many others, I've been watching the events in Ferguson, Missouri with interest this week. And I've been disgusted with the response of Ferguson Police Chief Thomas Jackson, who could have responded by listening to citizens outraged by last weekend's shooting of an unarmed black teenager that was to start college the following week. Instead, Jackson escalated the situation by arming his troops to the teeth, and shooting off tear gas and rubber bullets at protestors and bystanders. Rembert Browne of ESPN's Grantland has a great rundown of how the cops started firing on the mostly peaceful crowd to "gain control of the situation", which naturally led to chaos on Wednesday night.



With that in mind, let's flash back to February 2011, when another group of outraged citizens started to gather in Madison and in other places around Wisconsin. Remember this?

[Gov] Walker’s proposal, which he said would quickly pass in the state legislature, drastically limits collective bargaining, removing the right of unions to negotiate pensions, retirement and benefits. It further bars union dues check-offs for government workers, meaning that workers will have to pay dues individually

When asked by a reporter what will happen if workers resist, Walker replied that he would call out the National Guard. He said that the National Guard is “prepared ... for whatever the governor, their commander-in-chief, might call for ... I am fully prepared for whatever may happen.”

Walker’s proposal allows state authorities to arbitrarily fire workers who “participate in an organized action to stop or slow work,” or who “are absent for three days without approval of the employer,” according to the governor’s press release.

These were actions deliberately done by Scott Walker to try to provoke rioting and tension, and get the media to portray the protestors as "dangerous union thugs" who deserved to be put down. It also led to months and years of irresponsible demonization and outright lies about state workers by Walker, WisGOP leaders, and their spokespeople AM talk radio hosts.

But it didn't lead to the escalation Walker and the WisGOPs and their puppet-masters wanted, as the protestors remained remarkable peaceful despite their huge numbers (I know, I was there). So Scotty had another plan, which you may recall him discussing to a caller that he thought was David Koch.

Walker: The other thing is more long-term, and that is, after this, um, you know the coming days and weeks and months ahead, particulary in some of these, uh, more swing areas, a lot of these guys are gonna need, they don’t necessarily need ads for them, but they’re gonna need a message out reinforcing why this was a good thing to do for the economy and a good thing to do for the state. So to the extent that that message is out over and over again, that’s obviously a good thing. (Note that Walker is requesting "Koch" to coordinate strategy and "message", which is illegal under state law if it's not disclosed, and exactly what John Doe Deux is all about.)

Murphy: Right, right. Well, we’ll back you any way we can. But, uh, what we were thinking about the crowds was, uh, was planting some troublemakers.

Walker: You know, the, well, the only problem with that — because we thought about that. The problem — the, my only gut reaction to that is right now the lawmakers I’ve talked to have just completely had it with them, the public is not really fond of this. The teachers union did some polling of focus groups, I think, and found out that the public turned on ’em the minute they closed school down for a couple days. The guys we’ve got left are largely from out of state, and I keep dismissing it in all my press conferences saying, ‘Eh, they’re mostly from out of state.’ My only fear would be is if there was a ruckus caused is that that would scare the public into thinking maybe the governor has gotta settle to avoid all these problems. You know, whereas, I’ve said, ‘Hey, you know, we can handle this, people can protest. This is Madison, you know, full of the ’60s liberals. Let ’em protest.’ It’s not gonna affect us. And as long as we go back to our homes and the majority of the people are telling us we’re doing the right thing, let ’em protest all they want. Um, so that’s my gut reaction, is that I think it’s actually good if they’re constant, they’re noisy, but they’re quiet, nothing happens, ’cause sooner or later the media stops finding ’em interesting.

There is no doubt that Walker would have planted "troublemakers" in crowds of tens of thousands of people in Winter, 2011 if he thought it would have given him a few more percentage points of support. And notice that there's no concept of discussing the problem with the unions or the Democrats- it's just top-down authoritarian imposing of something that we now know did little to balance the budget (since any surplus was promptly thrown away by tax cuts) but instead was done as a "divide and conquer" power play. It's no surprise we're dead last in job and income growth in the Midwest with guys like that in charge.

And then look at the words from another big-mouthed creation of Milwaukee talk radio - Sheriff David Clarke. Clarke is using his 4% win in Tuesday's Dem primary (a win due in no small part to crossover voting by tens of thousands of suburban Republicans) as a mandate for more taxpayer money going to his troops.

Fresh from an election night battle where big money was a focus, Milwaukee County Sheriff David A. Clarke Jr. talked tough Wednesday, saying he's "back in the saddle" and ready to challenge other politicians whom he called "imperial leaders." (the projection, it BURNS!)

"People in this city decided they wanted me to lead the office on public safety and not the city fathers," he said, citing County Executive Chris Abele, Mayor Tom Barrett and others whom he called "soft on crime."

His first order of business, he said, will be to fight for a 2015 budget for more resources to provide for public safety because in recent years his budget has been cut.

And given that this is a guy who used taxpayer dollars to tell citizens to "get in the game" and arm themselves, I'm guessing those extra funds aren't going to go to the type of stabilizing, community policing that calmed the frayed nerves in Ferguson on Thursday night. I'm figuring the NRA's poster boy will now ask for even more of the militarized equipment that we've seen on the streets of Ferguson- as Clarke thinks poser shows of force that look cool to shrivel-dicked suburbanites are more effective than strategies which reduce tensions and are shown to reduce violence.

With that in mind, I think we have an answer as to how Scott Walker and David Clarke would respond to an outbreak of anger at an incident similar to the one in Ferguson, Missouri. They'd roll out the tanks and the big guns and raise the tension, in the hopes that it ignites racial hatred and gains them a political advantage with the suburbanites and rural folks who don't have a clue about the underlying issue of racial disparities in treatment and punishment by police and other law enforcement (disparities that are worse in Wisconsin than almost anywhere else in America). Dealing with that problem and trying to keep stability? Walker and Clarke could care less about that- they'd be more concerned with talking to Sykes or Belling or Icki in order to get their side of the story out over the people that pay their salary.

And that's a huge reason why these people must be removed from power as soon as possible. Milwaukee County may be stuck with David Clarke for the short term (at least until he quits to get his wingnut welfare check or some other promotion- and we all know that's coming), but we can remove Scott Walker's "divide and conquer" mentality and "toxic racial politics" in 2 1/2 months. And we better do it, before we get these guys get a chance to pour fire on a Ferguson-type situation of our own in Wisconsin.

Pro-WisGOP Wisconsin "Politifact" won't give you the entire truth

I have long suspected that the Journal-Sentinel’s Polit-fact Wisconsin is in the bag for Scott Walker and his corporatist WisGOP agenda (leading me to call if Politi-crap and Republi-fact), and I received more verification of this today. Dave Umhoefer and the fools at Politi-crap let their boy Scotty slip away with a cherry-picked claim about Wisconsin Incomes, when a rudimentary check of the bigger context shows the dishonesty and failure that has become a hallmark of Scott Walker’s governorship.

First, let me give you Politi-crap’s “analysis” and “investigation”.

So is it possible that by another economic measure -- the state’s total personal income -- the Badger State is gaining faster than all of its neighbors?

Gov. Scott Walker made that claim July 30, 2014 on his campaign Twitter account:

Wisconsin is #1 in the Midwest for personal income growth over the year. (US BEA Q1 2013 over Q1 2014)
— Scott Walker (@ScottWalker) July 30, 2014

In the tweet, Walker cited U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis estimates comparing the first quarter income total for 2014 to those from the same quarter one year earlier.

Those numbers come from this release, which came out in late June. Politi-crap says the numbers check out, so therefore, there is nothing else to discuss.

Among those 12 states [that could be identified as “Midwestern”], Wisconsin’s 3.33 percent income growth led the way, topping Ohio (3.12 percent) and Illinois (3.08 percent.)

Minnesota and Iowa were toward the low end at 1.6 percent and 1.13 percent, respectively.

Nationally, Wisconsin’s increase fell below the overall U.S. growth (3.55 percent) and trailed growth in 20 states. The top five states -- Oregon, Colorado, Texas, California and Washington -- ranged from 4.5 percent to 5.35 percent….

Our rating
Walker tweeted that "Wisconsin is #1 in the Midwest for personal income growth over the year."

The governor correctly identified a good-news trend that has seen Wisconsin boost its status from a laggard to a leader on total personal income, including wages, property income and government assistance.

We rate the claim True.

And now let me give you….the rest of the story. The part that Politi-crap chose not to mention.

Scott Walker has been governor of Wisconsin longer than 1 year, and perhaps it’s important to look at how we got to where we were in Q1 2013- when the time frame of Walker’s claim began. Let’s go back and see how the state has fared since Walker took office at the start of 2011, and compare that with the 6 other states that were originally part of the Big Ten (what I generally define as the “Midwest”). And when you look at this chart, it gives a very different impression than the one Walker and Politi-crap gave.



See that red line on the bottom? That’s Wisconsin under Walker. It’s DEAD LAST for income growth over the last 3+ years. The growth in income for the last 12 months doesn’t override that horrible performance. Basically, Walker’s tweet would be like a Cubs fan saying his team was “the best in the NL Central” because the Cubs had the best record in the division over their last 10 games going into play today. That may be true, but it didn’t change the fact that THE CUBS ARE STILL IN LAST, and no fan of the first-place (!) Brewers would want to change positions with them right now.

But you might think that Politi-crap was just being lazy and literal, and that’s why they allowed Walker’s claim to slip by with a “True” rating, without explaining the bigger context. The problem is that Politi-crap didn’t give Mary Burke the same benefit of the doubt earlier this year when the Burke campaign ran an ad criticizing Walker’s failures in job creation.

First, here’s the ad.



In that ad, there’s a reference to the state’s unemployment rate going from 4.8% in the time when Burke was Commerce Secretary, to 6.2%, which was based on the most recent numbers available at the time the ad ran in early March 2014. So Politi-crap did their “analysis” of that statement.

Burke said that "under Walker, unemployment’s up," from 4.8 percent to 6.2 percent. (actually, Burke’s ad said this, notice how Republi-fact slips that in to imply Burke is the one saying it)

Burke (actually Burke campaign manager Joe Zepecki) defends the claim by saying 4.8 percent is a reference to when she served as state commerce secretary, which was several years before Walker became governor. But the ad gives no indication that that is the comparison she is making.

Moreover, during Walker’s time as governor, unemployment started at 7.7 percent, not 4.8 percent. And rather than trending upward, the rate has steadily dropped to 6.3 percent.

For a claim that is false and ridiculous, we give Burke a Pants on Fire.

HOLD ON A F***ING SECOND! Under Walker, unemployment WAS up compared to the 4.8% rate that existed when Burke was in office. And it’s still higher at 5.8% today (in fact, we just found out it went up 0.1% in July). The ad’s statement is definitely dishonest and out of context, but so was Walker’s “best income growth in the Midwest claim”, and Republi-fact said that 100% “True.”

What’s with the disparity? Maybe the Burke ad isn’t a 100% true, but any honest analysis would give it at worst a “Half-true” or “Mostly false” for using an out-of-context stat to make it look like there is higher unemployment in Wisconsin since Walker took office. But the numbers are correct- unemployment is higher now in Wisconsin than in the mid-to-late 2000s. Explain to me why Scott Walker gets to cherry-pick stats and Politi-crap lets it pass, but when Mary Burke’s campaign does it, it’s “false and ridiculous”?

I can find only one legitimate answer to this- Politi-fact Wisconsin and Dave Umhoefer are being told to slant these ratings for the 2014 race. We know that the J-S is firmly in the tank for Walker, having endorsed him twice for governor and having spent years constantly muddying or covering up his numerous examples of failed policies, dishonesty and corruption under the charade of “he said, she said.” Even with Politi-crap grading on the curve, Walker rates as one of the biggest liars in the country, even by GOP standards, as noted by James Rowen at the Political Environment.

So if Politi-crap gives their boy Scotty a couple of out-of-context and meaningless “Trues”, and reaches for some absurd “Pants on Fire” or other negative ratings for Burke, they can allow the average dope to cop out and say “See, there’s no real difference”, and diminish the legitimate issue of Walker’s rampant dishonesty and corruption. Which plays right into WisGOP’s hands.

Politi-crap’s act illustrates disgusting behavior by JournalComm’s newspaper, and a whole lot of us see through it. To portray this obvious bias as “objective analysis” should get these guys slapped with an FTC complaint under truth in advertising laws, and I think we should let their new bosses at Scripps-Howard let them know that things like this are a big reason why this paper has destroyed almost all of the statewide credibility for political reporting that it once had. If Dave Umhoefer had an ounce of pride, he would admit his inability to do his job, quit spreading Politi-crap, and go back to being a beat reporter. Or he’d go public and say he is being told to skew his ratings in favor of Walker and WisGOP by his corporate lapdog editors - George Stanley and David Haynes- and then resign with honor.

Either way works with me, Dave. What’ll it be?

A few post-primary thoughts

1. Susan Happ! I was a huge Richards guy, but Happ blew him and Ozanne away. What's especially impressive is how broad-based Happ's support was, as she won pretty much all the counties out there, including Milwaukee and Dane Counties. In fact, Happ did better than her statewide total of 52% in almost every other county outside of the Big Two. This is the flip side of Tom Barrett's regionalized win in the 2012 recall primary, and portends very well for her chances against the corrupt 262 puppet Schimel.

In fact, Happ reached 50% or higher in 68 of the 72 counties in the state, and needless to say, if she was able to win it the first time, a lot of those voting for her will want to do it again on November 4. Maybe it's a good thing we didn't see many polls before this election to spoil the pot.

2. Mark Harris just got a massive fund-raising boost for his candidacy in WI-6, because there are few people that'll fire up Dems to help out in this race than being able to take out Glenn Grothmann. And given that Grothmann lost Sheboygan and Manitowoc county as badly as he did yesterday, you'd think that would be fertile territory for both Harris and State Sen. candidate Martha Laning, who's in good shape to take Joe Leibham's light-red seat. And Harris seems to be saying all the right things for a Dem to win in that district, as Andy from Wisconsin Soapbox points out (and Andy grew up in WI-6).

3. The overvote in the Milw Co Sheriff race was ridiculous. Over 113,000 votes were cast in the Sheriff's race, but barely 72,000 in the County Treasurer's race? That's an amazing disparity. In fact, it's so high that I'd almost ask for a recount if I were Moews to look into some of those ballots. Between that and the late-night reporting in Sheboygan that nearly put local boy Joe Leibham over the top, and it teels me we need some serious DOJ-style supervision of the polls come November, because I don't have a lot of trust in the people counting the votes and giving us the totals.

While I despise people who take their orders from the SykesBelling propagandists, those weak-minded minions VOTE. It's one of the biggest reasons those people are in power despite having opinions that the vast majority of Wisconsinites disagree with. Sadly in 2014, it's not about what the everyday person thinks, but what everyone WHO VOTES thinks. You wonder why things are screwed up?

4. There was definitely some pushback against what was perceived as strong-arming by DPW leadership, which explains why Mary Jo Walters got more than 40% of the vote for Lt. Gov and why Ernie Wittwer has a lead over Pat Bomhack in SD 17. Between this split and the WisGOPs' brutal primary in WI-6 and SD-21, whoever loses this election in 2014 may be headed for a massive internal battle for the direction of the party.

But Mike Tate's job did get easier yesterday, as I think the Burke-Happ ticket is a very good one that should have better statewide appeal for Dems, especially in the blue-leaning rural areas. Jonathan Brostoff's and David Bowen's wins mean more strong, young progressives in the Assembly from Milwaukee, which gives the city vibrant leadership that's long been lacking in Madison. And Lisa Subeck's impressive win adds to an already impressive group of younger, tough women in the Assembly that hail from Dane County. And you can bet these ladies will be out and about to help Mary Burke be the first female governor for the State of Wisconsin.

Combine that with the prospect of Glenn the Gross Man likely being out on the stump running for Congress in swingy NE Wisconsin, and turning a 60-40 Walker area into a 50-50 vote, and you have to think that the real decision-makers with the Wisconsin GOP is very worried about the direction this race has taken. And all the Koch money in the world can't fix these issues.

Low pay- still the missing piece

Two reports out in the last week illustrate why so many people think the U.S. economy has been slow despite GDP and employment numbers going up for the last several years. And in both cases, the source of the discontent is obvious- low and stagnant wages for most in a time where the richest people are thriving.

The first is a report by the U.S. Conference of Mayors describing changes in income across Metro areas over the last decade. There are a number of tidbits to grab from, particularly on inequality of household incomes in various metro areas, but the biggest item media seems to have seized on is this one, which shows that the damage from the Great Recession went past the millions of jobs lost.

In 2008 and 2009 the US economy lost 8.7 million jobs (Figure 1). By examining the sectors from which the jobs were lost, most notably manufacturing and construction (Figure 2), we find that the average annual wage in sectors (current wages weighted by number of jobs) where jobs were lost in the downturn was $61,637. A similar accounting of the jobs gains through 2014q2 shows average wages of $47,171 per year. This wage gap, at 23%, is significantly larger than that of the earlier recession and recovery, and implies $93 billion in lower wage income...

Extensive job losses in high-wage manufacturing ($63K) and construction ($58K) sectors were replaced by jobs in the lower wage sectors of hospitality ($21K), health care ($47K), and administrative support ($37K).

But while middle-class and lower-class wages stagnate or go down, the upper levels of the country have done just fine ober the last two decades.

The lowest two quintiles, or 40% of households, received just 6.6% of all US income gains since 2005, and 9.5% of gains since 1995. The share of total income gains from 2005 to 2012 which was captured by the highest 20% was 60.6%, and the top 5% received 27.6%. The comparable share of all gains from 1995 to 2012 was 55.0% and 24.5% respectively.

Gee, you think these two items might be interrelated? The richest households grab more of the gains of the economy, at the expense of the rest of the work force.

The same pattern repeats when you look at the recently-released productivity stats. The report was especially interesting since it also included revised productivity numbers for 2011, 2012, and 2013, keeping in line with the revisions for GDP that we saw a couple of weeks ago. And those revised figures show that workers have often been getting paid less than the rate of inflation, despite producing more.

Non-farm worker productivity, real compensation, 2011-2013
2011- Productivity +0.1%, Real Hourly compensation -0.9%
2012- Productivity +1.0%, Real Hourly compensation +1.0%
2013- Productivity +0.9%, Real Hourly compensation -0.3%

Manufacturing worker productivity, real compensation, 2011-13
2011- Productivity +1.0%, Real Hourly compensation -1.4%
2012- Productivity +1.9%, Real Hourly compensation -0.3%
2013- Productivity +2.3%, Real Hourly compensation -0.8%

Interestingly, these trends reversed in the First Quarter of 2014, when GDP and hours worked fell during the polar vortex winter, and incomes were given a start-of-the-year boost. But things reverted to the form of 2011-2013 in the Spring, and over the last 12 months, the disconnect between productivity and compensation remains. (quarterly numbers = change at an annual rate)

Non-farm worker productivity, real compensation, 2014
Q1 2014- Productivity -4.5%, Real Hourly Compensation +4.8%
Q2 2014- Productivity +2.5%, Real Hourly Compensation +0.1%
Q2'13- Q2'14- Productivity +1.2%, Real Hourly Comp. +1.0%

Manufacturing worker productivity, real compensation, 2014
Q1 2014- Productivity +3.2%, Real Hourly Compensation +6.2%
Q2 2014- Productivity +3.6%, Real Hourly Compensation -0.8%
Q2'13- Q2'14- Productivity +2.1%, Real Hourly Comp. +0.9%

So despite the odd beginning of the year, it's pretty obvious that American workers still aren't being rewarded for their efforts, despite there being improved output and these workers working more efficiently. Which shows that the fruits of this hard work is being stolen and transferred to the higher incomes, often in the forms of improved profits and higher stock prices.

When you look at these numbers, it has to be asked- why are so many of us allowing this race to the bottom of lower wages and higher levels of inequality? In fact, it seems that many people vote to continue this destructive cycle out of 1. envy of the few middle-class people that were smart enough to organize to receive their fair share, and 2. the hope that one day you could be the one to steal the workers efforts for yourself?.

Instead, why aren't more of those people who have had a lower quality of life imposed on them in the last 7 years demanding that they get a slice of the improved macro-economy that they've helped to create? Is it because demanding this takes too much effort, and it's easier to blame it on the black guy in the White House (the guy that's constantly being blocked by cynics in Congress, who are owned by oligarchs who want you to stay as indentured servants)? And what makes the critical mass wake up to that reality and organize to get the significant change in our economy that is long overdue?

One thing's obvious- this two-tier society isn't working, and it's leaving a whole lot of people behind, which is keeping this country from being everything it can be.

Lesson of the 2012 Dem primary- rural counties matter

On the eve of tomorrow's primary election day, I was trying to think if any of these results can give us a clue for how things may look in November, particularly involving the Dems' Attorney General primary. So I took a look at the 2012 Dem recall primary for governor in Wisconsin to see if we should have seen signs of trouble for Tom Barrett that became apparent in the General Election against Governor Scott Walker. Given that A-G candidate (and probable favorite to win) Jon Richards is a Milwaukee candidate as well, it may be a good proxy comparison to see if there is some kind of numbers to look for.

Barrett won the 2012 Dem recall primary with 58.1% of the vote statewide, easily outdistancing his other 3 opponents. I split the list of Wisconsin counties into 3 categories, which ended up including 59 of the 72 counties of the state.

1. Red- Counties where Barrett underperformed his 58.1% total by 10% or more (48.1% or less). These were 33 counties in total

2. Orange- Counties where Barrett underperformed his total by 5%-10% (48.1%-53.1%). These were 16 counties in total.

3. Green- Counties where Barrett was above 60.0% (overperformed by 1.9% or more). These were 10 counties that this happened in.

Then, I took a look at the results in the June 2012 recall election. That's an election where Walker ended up winning by just over 7%, and he took more votes than Barrett in 60 of Wisconsin's 72 counties.



Then I cross-listed these counties it with the 2012 presidential election, which President Obama won statewide 53-46, with Barack taking roughly half the counties. The results are illuminating.



So let's go back to our 3 categories from the 2012 Recall primary and see if there are any patterns.

Red counties-
Barrett won 2 of 33 (normally blue La Crosse County, and heavily blue Menominee County).
Obama won 16 of 33 (nearly half)

Almost all of the 14 other counties Obama won were rural counties in Western and Northern Wisconsin. Some of this owes to the fact that State Sen. Kathleen Vinehout had her largest areas of strength in Western Wisconsin (Vinehout had 4% of the total Dem vote in the primary, but consistently ran in double digits in her home area), but it also showed that rural voters in that area weren't all that warm to Barrett. And Barrett's inability to win those traditionally blue-leaning but swingy rural counties of the state was a big reason behind Walker's win.

Orange counties-
Barrett won 2 of 16 (blue-voting Columbia and Rock Counties)
Obama won 7 of 16 (includes swingy NE Wisconsin counties like Winnebago and Door, along with 4 counties in the 608 area code in South Central and SW Wisconsin).

Obama also came close to winning the Appleton and Green Bay-area counties of Brown and Outagamie, while Barrett got hammered by 20%, with huge turnout also bolstering Walker in that area. Keeping it close in NE Wisconsin is a big key for the Burke campaign this Fall.

Green counties-
Barrett won 5 of 10.
Obama won 6 of 10.

These Green counties fall almost entirely in two categories: 1. The Milwaukee media market (Barrett's home turf, and Tom was the only Milwaukee-area candidate in the 2012 gov primary, just like Richards in the 2014 A-G primary). 2. Other hard-core Dem areas in the state (Dane County, and three counties that border Lake Superior where Dems usually win by 20%-30%).

The Milwaukee-area counties include the counties in the 262 that are Walker's largest source of votes (Waukesha, Washington, Ozaukee, and Racine). And as I mentioned two years ago, Dane County and the Milwaukee area usually aren't an issue of getting voters to swing to your side as much as it is driving up (or down) turnout, due to the inelastic nature of these voters.

Interestingly, running up the score in the two biggest counties in Wisconsin was the one thing the Barrett campaign did well in 2012- Dane and Milwaukee Counties had turnout at or near presidential levels. But losing all those red and orange counties was what did him in, and allowed Walker to keep his job. It seems pretty evident that Mary Burke and whoever wins the Attorney General race needs to perform well in NE and western Wisconsin tomorrow, and the results on Tuesday night could give an indication how much work they have to do.

Official August primary endorsements

Apparently, many of the other left-wing blogs from the Cheddarsphere are doing their endorsements before Tuesday's primary, so I may as well do the same. So what the hell, I may as well do it for the five regulars that read this spot. So here we go. This is all Dem primary votes, and if you are asking me why I'm leaving out GOPs, please take a look at most of my blogs on economics and politics in the last 4-5 years.

Governor - Mary Burke. Not just because she'll win by an absurdly huge margin. Brett Hulsey is simply not fit for the job (or pretty much any elected job), and Burke has become a stronger candidate than I thought she was 6 months ago. Plus, a large turnout and win for Burke sends a strong message of support to springboard into the General Election to take out Walker. Just because you have a problem with how Burke was selected by Mike Tate and Co. (and I'm not keen on some of this myself), doesn't mean you should cast a high-visibility protest vote against the better candidate that has a great shot at becoming governor in November.

Lt. Governor - You're on your own with this one. I like John Lehman and think he's a great voice on education and related "bread and butter" issues. But unlike Hulsey, Mary Jo Walters hasn't directly criticized and tried to undercut Lehman or Dem officials, even though she was given the brush-off by DPW head-honchos. My only concern with Walters would be a Madison-Madison combination at the top of the ticket, but I also think she could give more fire than the more academic Lehman, and that fire is needed at times. A protest vote here isn't as big of a deal as doing one for Gov.

Attorney General - I strongly support Jon Richards. He was my Assemblyman when I lived in Milwaukee, and I've watched his work in the Assembly and on Joint Finance in recent years. Here's a guy who won't back down to the oligarchs that are trying to mess up the state, and he favored marriage equality well before it was cool for Dems to do so. Richards also gives greeat balance to Burke at the top of the ticket. Susan Happ is a good candidate, and has run a strong, positive campaign, but her belief in not criminalizing 1st-time OWI is a concern. Both Happ and Richards can go after corrupt GOP Brad Schimel, as both know just how crooked the Waukesha County GOP machine is. Ismael Ozanne is a good Dane County D-A, and believes in the right things, but he's a clear third here. And again, you'd have a Madison-Madison thing on top of the Dem ticket with Ozanne.

Sec of State - Doug La Follette . Remember the Act 10 fight if you need a reason why.

Dane County Sheriff - Dave Mahoney. Not only for his great work during the Uprising (and remembering who he worked for- i.e. not Scott Walker), but also because this is a great leader that truly gives a shit about results and good policy. Unlike the clown in the cowboy hat in Milwaukee County. Related to that.

Milwaukee County Sheriff - Chris Moews. Just for the love of God and Milwaukee, get someone in charge who actually cares about that community and what he might leave behind. We know Moews wouldn't be taking the gig as a stepping stone for a lifetime paychek on the wingnut welfare circuit, like Davey is doing. Besides, what "Dem" has supporters waving "Impeach Obama" signs on an I-94 overpass, like Clarke's were yesterday (I saluted accordingly).

Treasurer - I'm picking Sartori. I think. Not a real priority here.

State Assembly, 78th District - Lisa Subeck. I pick her over Mark Clear because I trust Lisa to give more visibility to issues, fight for what's right, and help Burke and other Dems during the Fall campaign. Clear has made noises about "working with a GOP majority", which indicates to me that he doesn't understand the state of play these days. Both Subeck and Clear believe in the right things, but Subeck is much more likely to not let WisGOP get away with their BS, and would add yet another strong, younger female voice to a great Dane County Assembly contingent that includes Chris Taylor, Melissa Sargent, and Dianne Hesselbein. This could be especially key in an election that follows the overwhelmingly male WisGOP caucus passing numerous pieces of anti-woman legislation, including repeal of the state's Equal Pay Law, and imposing transvaginal ultrasounds and other absurd anti-freedom laws on reproduction.

Bonus: 19th Assembly District As a former resident of the area, I've paid some attention to this race. I think Jonathan Brostoff and Marina Dimitrejevic would be great Assembly members, but I'd lean Brostoff here. I think he'd be a great addition to the young crop of Milwaukee progressives that got elected in 2012 (Reimer, Barnes, Goyke). Plus, Dimitrejevic has given off a vibe that she feels owed the position (for what it's worth, I didn't see one yard sign for her as I drove around the Eastside on a gorgeous Saturday), while Brostoff will be more like his mentor Chris Larson and constantly be out earning the respect of constituents and fighting for the Dems statewide. I don't think you go wrong with either Marina or Jonathan, and would encourage everyone that lives east of the Milwaukee River and in Bay View to cast their ballot for one of these two. The last thing we need to see is for a guy like Dan Adams win this seat with 35% of the vote after using Scott Walker-like anti-union language and kissing up to Milwaukee oligarchs and old-money Republicans. It's bad enough to fight their puppets in WisGOP in the Assembly, we don't need Adams slipping in with something like 35% of the vote and having to battle these guys within the Dem caucus as well.

These endorsements are worth what you paid for it. But please get out and VOTE on Tuesday. The Wisconsin GAB estimates less than 1 in 6 eligible voters will, so it truly makes a difference if you step up and get to the polls. Besides, it neutralizes that racists, saboteurs, propaganda-blinded losers and other fuckheads that go a long way toward preventing our political system from representing the true will of the people.

New data proves Act 10 hurt Wisconsin's economy

Today's release of the Bureau of Economic Analysis' survey of personal consumption expenditures by state would generally be a mundane bit of data. But not this time, because this report offers strong proof that Act 10's reduction of take-home pay had a negative impact on Wisconsin's economy, by having the reductions in take-home pay for hundreds of thousands of public employees lead to fewer items being bought.

This report featured revisions and refined data for 1997-2011, and also included 2012 for the first time. This is key from Wisconsin's standpoint, as Act 10's reductions in take-home pay for state employees didn't start until late Summer 2011, and didn't hit many other public employees until their bargaining agreements expired at the end of 2011. So if Act 10 had an effect on consumption spending, we'd especially see it in 2012.

Well, let's go to the data.



Dead last in the Midwest, and not by a little. Wisconsin's 2.8% increase in 2012 was 0.5% below the next-lowest Midwestern state (Michigan at 3.3%) and nearly 1/3 lower than the U.S. increase in consumption of 4.1%. This put Wisconsin in the bottom 5 in the U.S. for slowest increase in consumption in the first year after Act 10.

Bottom 5, change in consumption spending U.S., 2012 vs 2011
46. S.C. +2.81%
47. Wis. +2.81%
48. Maine +2.80%
49. R.I. +2.5%
50. Miss. +2.5%

And it's not a function of the Midwest's slower-than-the-US's population growth either. Wisconsin's consumption increase per capita was only 2.5% (vs. 3.3% in the U.S.), which was also dead last in the Midwest and bottom 5 in the country.



And lest you think that Wisconsinites are just really good savers, the report mentions that the 1997-2012 average increase in consumption expenditures in Wisconsin was 4.5%, not far off of the U.S. average of 4.8%. And it's not just a Great Recession slowdown in consumption expenditures, as Wisconsin went from the 2nd-largest increase in the Midwest for consumption per capita in the 3 years before Scott Walker took office in 2011, down to the bottom after Scotty "dropped the bomb" with Act 10.

Change in per capita consumption expenditures 2007-2010
Iowa +5.23%
Wis. +3.86%
Ohio +3.31%
Ind. +2.72%
Ill. +2.63%
Mich +2.50%
U.S. +1.95%
Minn +1.40%

Change in per capita consumption expenditures 2010-2012
Iowa +8.84%
Ind. +8.69%
Ohio +8.49%
Minn +8.01%
Mich +7.97%
Ill. +7.72%
U.S. 7.69%
Wis. +6.74%

Beyond the reduced take-home pay for the hundreds of thousands of public employees (and choices that had to be made in addition to lower consumption), let's talk about the effect of this lower consumption in 2011 and 2012. A 1% increase in total consumption expenditures in 2012 Wisconsin would come to nearly $2 BILLION (not million, as I had earlier, I misread the BEA chart) , which is what shops and restaurants and other Wisconsin businesses would have been getting if the state had merely kept up with the lower-than-Midwest U.S. pace. And quite a bit of that $2 billion would likely have been reinvested into purchasing more goods and services, and possibly hiring more employees, making the cuts in consumption during the Walker years a whole lot more damaging than just $2 billion.

That cutting out of consumption did a whole lot than any increase that came from the $5-$10 a paycheck tax cut that the average Wisconsinite got from the GOP Legislature - from a one-time surplus that came in no small part from the "savings" of Act 10. That surplus is now gone, with up to $2 billion in deficits looming for the next budget, which makes another cycle of cuts in services and higher taxes more likely in future years, which would likely reduce consumption even more. So how can anyone look at the clear drop in economic activity caused by Act 10 in Wisconsin and still think that kind of austerity is a good plan for growing an economy?

Because growing the economy is not the plan for Walker and his Koch backers. Instead, it's about making the vast majority of us destitute and having to work for peanuts while the rich and connected few hoard the extra profits for themselves. Any increase in jobs and prosperity for us 99%-ers is merely a coincidence.