Last night's results in the two statewide elections indicates that there are three different types of counties in Wisconsin when it comes to voting, if you can tell anything from an April election that didn't reach 20% turnout.
1. The base of blue decency - these counties both voted for Ann Walsh Bradley, and NO on the statewide "hurt Shirley Abrahamson" amendment. Generally solid Dem areas (or areas turning Dem, like in SW Wisconsin), and many UW campuses also are part of this area (not a coincidence there, either).
Ashland
Bayfield
Dane
Door
Eau Claire
Iowa
La Crosse
Menominee
Milwaukee
Portage
Richland
Rock
Sauk
Wood (!)
Feel free to patronize these good people in the upcoming year.
2. Right-wing sheep - these counties both voted for James Daley, and YES on the "hurt Shirley" amendment. Not surprisingly, all of these 9 counties are in the 262 and 920 area codes, and they goose-step to whatever beat their right-wing AM masters tell them. Probably the only counties where Scott Walker is sure to have an approval rating over 50% these days.
Dodge
Fond du Lac
Green Lake
Jefferson
Ozaukee
Sheboygan
Washington
Waukesha
Walworth
With rare exceptions like college towns (or if you have to visit family there), do not spend a DIME in these places.
3. Persuadable and confused swingers - these are the other 49 counties knew enough to vote to keep Bradley in office, but didn't know enough to see through the "hurt Shirley" amendment and had a majority who voted YES for that as well. Many of these same counties voted for Barack Obama in 2008 (and many did in 2012 as well), but also voted for Scott Walker in the 2010s. There seems to be a lot of low-info in these parts, or very casual Democrats who only vote in presidential-year elections, which helps explain why they can be so swingy. If a candidate wins more than half of these counties, that candidate will win statewide elections in Wisconsin, regardless of the votes elsewhere.
It does seem like the GOP's act has pissed off more than a few people since November 2014, because I would not have thought the "hurt Shirley" amendment would have struggled to win, because the YES side had huge amounts of WMC money and AM air time to con a lot of low-info voters (it only won by 53-47, or by less than 50,000 votes). I also would not have thought that Bradley would have cruised by 16 points in a low-turnout election, as those usually overstate the influence of dead-end Baggers.
Of course, it's ridiculous that we even have statewide elections and constitutional amendments in Spring elections at all- there needs to be a larger electorate to decide these issues, and the GOP legislators who voted to put the "hurt Shirley" amendment should have to face the voters to explain themselves in the same election that the amendment is decided. Maybe if the Dems in Wisconsin get some guts, they might make such a requirement part of their 2016 platform, along with rescinding about every other power-grab that's been done by the Fitzwalkerstanis over the last 4 1/2 years. It seems like there's a seething and growing contingent that has had about enough with this GOP crew, and they go beyond the 47% that have consistently voted against Scott Walker in midterms and recall elections this decade.
Wednesday, April 8, 2015
Tuesday, April 7, 2015
Can Bucky's run close the budget gap?
That was an amazing 3 weeks of basketball, and in representing the university so well, even if it ended in a gut-wrenching loss (like everything else in Wisconsin over the last year, it seems). I want to segue from that point back to our state budget, which went on the back burner as Badgermania overran the state and the state budget hearings came to a close. But as April continues, things will heat up at the Capitol, and the numbers will come into clarity that help to decide just what's going to be available for state aids and services for the coming months and years.
Ironically, Bucky's big run to the title game may help things a bit with the budget. Obviously, Madison was the center of the scene, but I'd imagine you could tell similar stories to this in many parts of the state, for both Saturday and Monday nights.
The February state revenue numbers were quietly released a couple of weeks ago, and indicated a recovery from the subpar numbers of January. February is usually the lowest month of the year for revenue collections, since income tax refunds pick up in earnest (and count against taxes paid in), and it's near the lowest amounts for raw work numbers, as Christmas season is over, and Spring hasn't started yet, so the numbers start from a lower base and can be quite jumpy. This February was no different, as the DOR says adjusted revenues were up by 40%, or $216.2 million from February 2014's take, but because of shortfalls and other changes in the previous months, total revenues were only up 0.2% for the Fiscal Year.
I will add that February's increase is a bit misleading, as it was the first month of lower state tax refunds due to the lower withholdings that started in April 2014 (if you haven't done your taxes yet, you've been warned), and so based on prior estimates from the LFB, these figures should be deflated by $110 million when comparing with last year ($165 million in reduced tax refunds - $55 million in increased withholding). But the numbers are still good when you reduce the income taxes by $110 million- income taxes still up more than $50 million, sales taxes up 11.1%, and total General Fund taxes up just under 16.5%.
On the flip side, there are two major laggers that continued in February tax collections- corporate taxes and excise taxes. This continues a trend that has been going on throughout this Fiscal Year.
Tax revenue, February 2015 vs February 2015
Corporate tax -23.2%
Excise tax -7.1%
Tax revenue, FY 2015 vs FY 2014
Corporate tax -9.3%
Excise tax -3.5%
We've touched on the fact that the corporate tax cuts that have passed in the Age of Fitzwalkerstan are blowing bigger holes in the budget than previously predicted, and I'd imagine it might get worse now that tax season is coming on, and companies try to cash in. Maybe some of that excise tax decline goes away with all the booze that got bought during Bucky's big run through the tournament (I'm sure Indy appreciated the Badger fans' imbibing over the weekend), but right now, the lagging taxes are also causing some fiscal stress.
So where are we at, with all of the adjustments and other trends in Wisconsin tax collections. I estimate the state has lost $440 million in revenue with lower withholding, but got back $165 million in lower tax refunds in February, so that means I should add $275 million in income tax revenues for now to see what the underlying "real" change in income tax collections is. When I do that, I get a 4.10% increase for income taxes. Sales taxes are up 5.76% for the year, corporate and excise taxes down as shown above, and other taxes are largely in line with projections. So with that in mind, here's what the numbers look like if those figures hold for the last 4 months of the Fiscal Year, when compared with the LFB's revenue estimates in January.
Wisconsin FY 2015 tax revenue trend vs LFB projections
Income tax +$0.9 million
Sales tax +14.9 million
Corporate tax -$58.2 million
Excise tax -$7.6 million
Other taxes in line
NET CHANGE -$50.0 million
So that $50 million goes on top of being $283 million in the hole when LFB did those projections in January. Now, some of that hole is being closed through expense reduction moves by the Walker Administration (including the skipping of a $108 million debt payment next month), but any sizable revenue gap would likely require even more drastic action, not only for the 2 1/2 months where the hole has to be made up in for this budget, but with the lower revenue base starting off in the next budget.
And that's where I go full circle on this. What if the Badgers' great run through March Madness causes enough of a short-time bump in revenues that it closes that $50 million revenue gap, prevents the need for a budget repair bill, and keeps up the base revenues for this already-fragile 2015-17 budget? And if so, shouldn't the UW System get some of its cuts reduced in the next budget as a "thank you"? I'm just sayin'.
Ironically, Bucky's big run to the title game may help things a bit with the budget. Obviously, Madison was the center of the scene, but I'd imagine you could tell similar stories to this in many parts of the state, for both Saturday and Monday nights.
Earlier in the evening, campus buildings and Downtown Madison bars bulged with UW fans hoping to experience a singular victory together. With college students back from spring break, seats went fast at viewing parties for the game, which was played in Indianapolis.Between the added crowds at the bars and the sales of Final Four gear, let's see if this translates into a minor bump in sales tax revenues for April, and possibly add a bit of work hours for people in the retail and bar industry. Of course, it may only be a short-term thing, and displaced other behavior over the last few days, but given the recent figures from the Department of Revenue, every little boost will be a big help when it comes to the chances of making the deficit-ridden state budget end up balancing when the fiscal year ends in 2 1/2 years.
"There is no backup plan. We're going to get in," said Ryan Parkos of Cottage Grove, stuck in a rain-sprayed line outside Whiskey Jack's (us old folks remember it as The Pub) about 30 minutes before tip-off.
Similar situations played out around town. Union South locked its doors at 8:15 p.m. having reached its capacity of 2,100. Over 1,100 people filled the newly renovated Shannon Theater at Memorial Union. Some fans got caught up in the capacity issues.
The February state revenue numbers were quietly released a couple of weeks ago, and indicated a recovery from the subpar numbers of January. February is usually the lowest month of the year for revenue collections, since income tax refunds pick up in earnest (and count against taxes paid in), and it's near the lowest amounts for raw work numbers, as Christmas season is over, and Spring hasn't started yet, so the numbers start from a lower base and can be quite jumpy. This February was no different, as the DOR says adjusted revenues were up by 40%, or $216.2 million from February 2014's take, but because of shortfalls and other changes in the previous months, total revenues were only up 0.2% for the Fiscal Year.
I will add that February's increase is a bit misleading, as it was the first month of lower state tax refunds due to the lower withholdings that started in April 2014 (if you haven't done your taxes yet, you've been warned), and so based on prior estimates from the LFB, these figures should be deflated by $110 million when comparing with last year ($165 million in reduced tax refunds - $55 million in increased withholding). But the numbers are still good when you reduce the income taxes by $110 million- income taxes still up more than $50 million, sales taxes up 11.1%, and total General Fund taxes up just under 16.5%.
On the flip side, there are two major laggers that continued in February tax collections- corporate taxes and excise taxes. This continues a trend that has been going on throughout this Fiscal Year.
Tax revenue, February 2015 vs February 2015
Corporate tax -23.2%
Excise tax -7.1%
Tax revenue, FY 2015 vs FY 2014
Corporate tax -9.3%
Excise tax -3.5%
We've touched on the fact that the corporate tax cuts that have passed in the Age of Fitzwalkerstan are blowing bigger holes in the budget than previously predicted, and I'd imagine it might get worse now that tax season is coming on, and companies try to cash in. Maybe some of that excise tax decline goes away with all the booze that got bought during Bucky's big run through the tournament (I'm sure Indy appreciated the Badger fans' imbibing over the weekend), but right now, the lagging taxes are also causing some fiscal stress.
So where are we at, with all of the adjustments and other trends in Wisconsin tax collections. I estimate the state has lost $440 million in revenue with lower withholding, but got back $165 million in lower tax refunds in February, so that means I should add $275 million in income tax revenues for now to see what the underlying "real" change in income tax collections is. When I do that, I get a 4.10% increase for income taxes. Sales taxes are up 5.76% for the year, corporate and excise taxes down as shown above, and other taxes are largely in line with projections. So with that in mind, here's what the numbers look like if those figures hold for the last 4 months of the Fiscal Year, when compared with the LFB's revenue estimates in January.
Wisconsin FY 2015 tax revenue trend vs LFB projections
Income tax +$0.9 million
Sales tax +14.9 million
Corporate tax -$58.2 million
Excise tax -$7.6 million
Other taxes in line
NET CHANGE -$50.0 million
So that $50 million goes on top of being $283 million in the hole when LFB did those projections in January. Now, some of that hole is being closed through expense reduction moves by the Walker Administration (including the skipping of a $108 million debt payment next month), but any sizable revenue gap would likely require even more drastic action, not only for the 2 1/2 months where the hole has to be made up in for this budget, but with the lower revenue base starting off in the next budget.
And that's where I go full circle on this. What if the Badgers' great run through March Madness causes enough of a short-time bump in revenues that it closes that $50 million revenue gap, prevents the need for a budget repair bill, and keeps up the base revenues for this already-fragile 2015-17 budget? And if so, shouldn't the UW System get some of its cuts reduced in the next budget as a "thank you"? I'm just sayin'.
Don't think officiating matters?
After that thigh last night, now do you think officiating doesn't matter? Where UW fouls the least out if any team in college hoop, but Duke out shoots them 16-3 from the line in the second half? Where Justise Winslow is out if bounds twice in the last 4 minutes but UW doesn't get the ball either time!
Yes, UW could have played better, but that doesn't stop it from still being garbage that these calls went against us. And given how rigged this state has been the last 4 years for the good guys, I really didn't need to be reminded of that on the basketball court last night , after such a magnificent run.
Time to take out some frustration on both these situations by voting for Justice Bradley and a HELL NO on Amndment 1. Do the same today.
Yes, UW could have played better, but that doesn't stop it from still being garbage that these calls went against us. And given how rigged this state has been the last 4 years for the good guys, I really didn't need to be reminded of that on the basketball court last night , after such a magnificent run.
Time to take out some frustration on both these situations by voting for Justice Bradley and a HELL NO on Amndment 1. Do the same today.
Monday, April 6, 2015
One more thing before we vote tomorrow...
I've been a mostly-silent wreck today, and you can imagine why. Drive downtown to get to a near-east side bar to watch Bucky play for all the marbles. Most CPUs bars had lines out the door and streets already filling up.
I hope they're even more filled after 10:30.
VOTE STRONG TOMORROW, all of you. But I got bigger priorities tonight
I hope they're even more filled after 10:30.
VOTE STRONG TOMORROW, all of you. But I got bigger priorities tonight
Sunday, April 5, 2015
It's never bad to be a Badger, but....
Yeah, some days are better than others. I wasn't downtown for Bucky knocking Kentucky from the ranks of the undefeated, but I think these guys helped to make up for it.
Well, one more to go on Monday.
And given that it's now officially Easter Sunday, I think this seems fitting, from some great Catholic guys from the Upper Midwest.
Wow... just, wow. #Badgers https://t.co/Syraws4kq4
— Wisconsin Basketball (@BadgerMBB) April 5, 2015Well, one more to go on Monday.
And given that it's now officially Easter Sunday, I think this seems fitting, from some great Catholic guys from the Upper Midwest.
Friday, April 3, 2015
Live from NapTown
Sure, there are a ton of Kentucky fans, but there are plenty of us too. And I'm coming off a great evening of meeting up with old friends from Indy, with good beer and good discussions. Can we tip this thing off now? I gotta wait another 21 hours? Really? OK, I guess I'll have to get by, and see more friends and fellow Badgers.
CAN'T WAIT.
CAN'T WAIT.
Thursday, April 2, 2015
Calm before the party
Yes, I've been a bit quiet here this week, mostly because it was 75 and I was seeing off UW hoopsters yesterday, and today I was helping to fulfill groomsman duties at a suit fitting for a ceremony I'll be part of in August.
Plus, things are too absurd and depressing to discuss at times, and I want to be riding high into Indy tomorrow. Maybe I'll give an update from NapTown before Bucky takes the floor
Plus, things are too absurd and depressing to discuss at times, and I want to be riding high into Indy tomorrow. Maybe I'll give an update from NapTown before Bucky takes the floor
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