Strong July jobs report in Wisconsin, but big picture still weak

This week featured another Wisconsin jobs report, and July's figures were very good for our state.

The state added 9,100 private sector jobs and 8,700 total non-farm jobs from June 2018 to July. One-month gains were significant in durable goods [manufacturing] (+2,400) and Health Care and Social Assistance (+2,800).

In brief, the seasonally adjusted estimates show:

• Place of Residence Data: Wisconsin's preliminary seasonally adjusted unemployment rate remained at 2.9 percent in July, up slightly from the record low of 2.8 percent experienced in April and May of 2018. Wisconsin's labor force participation rate remained at 68.9 percent in July, 6 percentage points higher than the national rate.

• Place of Work Data: From July 2017 to July 2018, Wisconsin added a statistically significant 38,500 private-sector and 21,300 manufacturing jobs, as defined by BLS. Wisconsin also added 9,100 private-sector jobs, 8,700 total non-farm jobs and 2,500 manufacturing jobs from June 2018 to July.

Pretty good report all around. I continue to be very skeptical of the great gains the Walker Administration keeps reporting in manufacturing (they’ve been revised down numerous times in recent years), but there were also solid gains in the service sectors (+6,200) and June’s jobs numbers were revised up by 1,200 private sector jobs and 200 overall.

Even though the household employment stalled out (down by 2,100), 2.9% is still basically full employment, and maybe the disparities in Wisconsin between in "employment" vs "jobs" in the household and payroll surveys is being smoothed out (both are now in the mid-to-upper 30,000s for the last 12 months).

Given that our Fair Governor is losing in the polls, he needed some good news, and welcomed this strong initial jobs report.

ICYMI: Wisconsin has now added over 28,000 private sector jobs during the first half of 2018! “Wisconsin added 9,100 private sector jobs in July.” @BizTimesMedia #WIWorkinghttps://t.co/IRKr9Mv3ct

— Governor Walker (@GovWalker) August 17, 2018

Hold on there, Scotty. It’s not like Wisconsin is pulling away from the pack with these figures. Just cast your eyes across the Saint Croix River, where Minnesota added 11,200 jobs in July, and had its unemployment rate drop to 3.0%. In addition, the newly-released state-by-state comparisons show that Minnesota continues to grow more jobs than Wisconsin over the last 12 months.

Job change, July 2017- July 2018
All jobs
Minn +43,100 (+1.47%)
Wis. +38,800 (+1.32%)

Private-sector jobs
Minn +38,700 (+1.54%)
Wis. +38,500 (+1.52%)

Total job change, Midwest July 2017-July 2018
Mich +1.52%
Ohio +1.49%
Minn +1.47%
Wis. +1.32%
Iowa +1.21%
Ill. +1.09%
Ind. +0.61%

It’s also funny to see Walker talking up Wisconsin’s recent job gains, given that they are coming after Walker reversed his prior positions in 2017. The reversals include finally adding back some money to public schools, increasing rates of reimbursement for health care providers and nursing homes, and trying to limit the increases in the cost of health care instead of actively sabotaging the ACA. It's almost like these more liberal policies work better in adding jobs than the ALEC austerity that this state was under before 2017.

These pre-election band-aids don’t repair all the damage that happened for the first 7 years of the Age of Fitzwalkerstan. Despite the recently strong numbers, the job losses in April and May in Wisconsin means that there has been little change in the Walker jobs gap for the first 7 months of 2018.

Walker jobs gap
All jobs
Dec 2017 138,900
July 2018 137,600

Private sector jobs
Dec 2017 133,000
July 2018 136,600

There's an even more important jobs report dropping next week – the “gold standard” Quarterly Census on Employment and Wages (QCEW). This report has consistently shown the monthly jobs figures from the Walker Administration to be overestimated, lets us give a more thorough comparison between Wisconsin and the other 50 states, and also includes wage information that the monthly DWD reports does not have.

Interestingly, the Walker Administration’s report did not include the typical “preview” of the QCEW numbers that would be expected this month, and I’m wondering if that’s because those figures aren’t as rosy as the initial reports that came out a few months ago (which would be SOP for this crew). We’ll start to find out next week if my theory is right, and we’ll get more detail in early September as to where those jobs are, and how much they’re (not) paying.

Look, gaining jobs are better than losing jobs, and that shouldn’t be ignored. But I’d prefer my governors not to have to face the pressure of an election to have to do the things that more successful states like Minnesota have been doing all along. And if Tony Evers and other Dems aren’t elected in 80 days to get us back to investing in our resources in all years (not just ones before elections), you can bet that we will see Wisconsin backslide even more on the jobs, wage, and investment fronts in 2019.

Why the Packers (and Wisconsin) suck in 2018

It's the 2nd half of August, and that means it's time to get into football mode. And one of the highlights of this time of the year is Deadspin's Drew Magary putting out his series of "Why Your Team Sucks" for each NFL Club. It's 1/2 ripping on the faults of the team, a nnd about 1/2 ripping on the fans and city/state that the team is located in.

Well, it was the Packers' turn in the barrel this week, and the 2018 picture wasn't pretty.

I grew up in Minnesota but I’m being completely earnest when I tell you that, while I like my home state, I also appreciated its neighbor to the East. I had friends from Wisconsin. I went to camp in Wisconsin. Wisconsin has cheese, beer, and pretty woods. For the bulk of my life, it seemed like a perfectly normal, good little state. But now I know the truth about Wisconsin, and that is that it’s actually a fucking loony bin. The governor is a union-busting turd. The biggest city is more segregated than apartheid-era Cape Town and was run, until very recently, by America’s Most Corrupt Sheriff. Their most prominent congressman will go down as one of the most spineless enablers in human history. The cops beat up a Milwaukee Buck and laughed about it. The citizens have brains and asses made of boiled weisswurst. The entire state is a series of cool cities surrounded by psychotic suburbs in which people have been stifling their racism in the name of politeness for so long that their eyes are now just swirling like cartoon characters. It’s a cut-rate Illinois filled with crackpots, serial killers, and racists. Wisconsin is INSANE.

Why you little Mud-Duck bastard, you are…..pretty correct. This is how we appear to the rest of the country after voting for Donald F’ing Trump for president and a dimwitted college dropout for Governor 3 times (!!!)

Some of the comments by actual Packer fans/Wisconsin residents in the article are also far from endearing.

Fuck this fanbase who would chop their own arm off for Clay “OMG Hair” Matthews and Jordy Nelson, but wouldn’t recognize Mike Daniels or Davante Adams in their own jerseys.

I’m a Canadian who moved to Northeast Wisconsin - holy fuck these people are drunk.

I’m not shocked this state went for Trump. It’s drunk, it’s racist, it puts hunter camo on everything, and it’s absolutely terrified of taking an alternate route to Miller Park.

A buddy was a professor at Marquette and went out cycling when he first moved there. He ended up on MLK. Some white dude pulled over and yelled “get in.” He asked why and the dude said “you’re going to get killed.” Probably someone from Waukesha.

That said, if you are an African-American in a bar in Green Bay you won’t pay for drinks since everyone will think you play for the Packers.

We continually seem to think Scott Walker is an electable human being and not the evil dad in every Nickelodeon movie from the 90s.​

…Michigan and Pennsylvania were always suspect. Wisconsin was not. Wisconsin was the “SUPRISE, WE’RE ASSHOLES” of the 2016 election. Michigan and Pennsylvania are much more like Ohio and Florida, in that they’re inhabited by mostly douchebags already.

And here’s a sadly accurate football take from a commentator.

All it took was one fateful October Sunday afternoon in Minnesota, fucking Minnesota of all places, and an Anthony Fucking Barr sack, to reveal the Packers for what they are: a fraudulent, house of cards organization that was lucky enough to see a cross-bread of Moses and Jesus fall into their laps as their quarterback. Ted Thompson’s defense, entirely built with his 90+ 3rd to 7th round draft picks, looked like the French army in 1940, and Mike McCarthy stuck with a QB who was unable to throw a single TD in Lambeau Field.

You may notice a certain edge to the fans’ letters, and I think a lot of it is the general know-little idiocy that has been allowed to be in control of much of Wisconsin politics starting in 2010 at the state level and Ron Johnson's election to the US Senate, and culminating in the state going for Trump in 2016. I know I have found a lot less humor in seeing some drunken yah-hey-dere dipshit wearing a variation of a Cheesehead chanting “GO PACK GOOOOO!” when he/she comes onto my TV screen since Act 10 and the related culture war was dropped on all of us 7 years ago.

Us in the home state of Titletown have to do better than we’ve been showing to the rest of the country. On the field, in the voting booth, and in our everyday lives. All are very possible, and 2018 could become a memorable year in Wisconsin where things turned back into the greatness that we used to have.

But some people in Wisconsin need to get it together, be honest about what they're seeing, and demand more.

Despite Walker's and WisGOP's efforts, UW System still gives a huge boost to Wisconsin

This didn’t get much notice after the big primary elections, but this week, the University of Wisconsin System had its annual economic impact report released.

It's not necessarily news to hear that an employer of tens of thousands of people has a large economic impact in the state. And indeed, everyday UW operations along with the wages and salaries earned by UW workers account for about half of the $24 billion impact that the study says the UW generates. What’s perhaps more interesting are the other ways the university system adds our state’s economy. Much of it comes from spinoff businesses that use what is learned and produced on the UW to become strong entitites themselves.

The second largest contributor to UW System’s economic impact is UW Hospitals and Clinics, an organization long affiliated with the University of Wisconsin–Madison. UW Hospitals was established as a public authority in 1996 but has deep and continuing ties to the UW School of Medicine and Public Health. UW Hospitals accounted for $3.5 billion of UW System’s overall economic impact in the 2016-17 fiscal year.

The third largest contributor to UW System’s economic impact is startup companies, many of which are founded by professors and staff conducting research at the UW System. The data in this calculation comes from startups out of UW-Madison. Approximately 350 startups came from UW-Madison (not including those in UW Research Park) in the 2016-17 fiscal year and accounted for $3 billion of the UW System’s overall economic impact.

Additional startup and established companies located in UW Research Park in Madison, Wis., accounted for $1.1 billion of the UW System’s impact on Wisconsin’s economy in 2016-17.

2 other big areas that add to the UW’s impact on the state are student spending on everyday items ($2.2 billion) and visitor spending for conferences, college sports, college visits, and other campus tourism-related events ($2.0 billion, visit the beer gardens on Regent Street in 2 weeks if you need an example).

And not only does the UW System’s analysis note that the UW System is responsible for 92,000 jobs itself, and its activities lead and/or support 75,000 other jobs, but that those jobs pay better than the typical Wisconsin job.

The U.S. Census Bureau’s publication “American Fact Finder” reports Wisconsin’s median earnings at $31,195. These are reported earnings without fringe benefits. Adjusting for a fringe benefit rate of 30% would push median labor income to about $40,553, compared to the average overall labor income of jobs generated by UW System economic activity of $55,502.

That better pay and better-educated work force raises tax revenue (to the tune of $1.1 billion in 2016-17), and the study’s author noted that the relatively small amount of money state taxpayers kick in to the UW results in a major bang for the buck.

“The breadth of UW System activity is striking,” said Dr. David J. Ward, CEO of NorthStar Analytics, which conducted the study. “With the state contributing slightly over $1 billion to the university system’s budget in fiscal year 2016-17, Wisconsin taxpayers are realizing a substantial return on their investment in the UW System.”

The 2018 UW System Economic Impact Study by NorthStar Analytics refreshes a 2002 economic impact report prepared for the UW System by the firm then known as NorthStar Economics. The new study shows the UW System’s economic impact measures have more than doubled in the years since. Ward will present the report to the Board of Regents at its next meeting on Aug. 23 in Madison.

“The biggest change since 2002 is the economic development activity the UW System is now involved in,” Ward said. “There is very significant startup activity, and it’s beginning to spread across the state.”

UW System President Ray Cross noted that the overwhelming number of graduates of UW schools stay in the state, which helps Wisconsin employers in particular.

Each year, the UW System confers more than 36,000 degrees, and a very high percentage of recent graduates (more than 80 percent) stay and work in Wisconsin. “This continuing stream of new college graduates helps to replenish the talent base of Wisconsin’s workforce and provides skilled employees for Wisconsin businesses,” Cross said.

Additional data show that UW System graduates with bachelor’s degrees are filling key shortages in health care, science, and engineering fields. In 2016-17, there were 9,716 science, technology, engineering and math (STEM) graduates, and 3,460 health-care graduates.

Wow. Sounds like we get a heckuva deal with the UW System. Which leads to my question for President Cross. Why haven’t you done a thing to stop the WisGOPs and Scott Walker’s lackeys on the Board of Regents from trying to turn the UW into a second-rate system?

Throughout Cross’s tenure as president, right-wing haters of independent thought in the State Legislature and Governor’s Office have taken numerous steps to injure the UW. This included defunding the schools (the System gets $20 million less from the state than it did in 2011), eradicating tenure (which hurts its ability to recruit and retain talent), and giving an unfunded mandate to freeze in-state tuition (leading to more budget cuts and non-competitiveness).

In addition, Cross has allowed it to be used as a punching bag in the resentment politics that get regressive WisGOPs elected in non-UW towns across the state. Not only has Cross not spoken out against that or other GOP attacks on the UW, he’s even supported some of their absurdity. That includes Cross giving a full-throated defense of a Fox-con that will likely lead to more reductions in funding to the UW due to the state not having enough money to go around.

Given the clear economic boost that UW gives, why has the “business lobby” of Wisconsin Manufacturers and Commerce and the Metropolitan Milwaukee Association of Commerce not defended something that pays them back in spades? Instead, those greedheads have not only stayed silent, but continue to throw millions of dollars in support of the same Wisconsin GOP politicians that are driving the UW into mediocrity, and they've had hundreds of million of dollars in tax cuts kicked back to them, which have drained the state treasury of available funds.

And with the reduced amount of funds remaining, Walker and WisGOP have chosen to give those scarce dollars to agencies other than the UW. Let me bring back this chart from last week, which shows that we are slated to have the Corrections get over $140 million in Wisconsin taxpayer dollars than the UW will this year, and we will nearly pay as for write-offs in state property taxes (which overwhelmingly go to richer homeowners) as we will for a System that adds $24 billion to the state’s economy.

The burdens and defunding that has been imposed on the UW is what’s makes this economic impact report all the more remarkable. It somehow continues to be a boon to Wisconsin despite the efforts of the jealous WisGOP trash at the Capitol and the dopes who have kept them in office, and is one of the few reasons this state hasn't fully devolved into a cold-weather Mississippi. Can you imagine how good it would be if educator Tony Evers and pro-UW Dems were put in charge, restored the investments to the higher levels of the 20th Century, and restored the respect we used to have for science and college educators?

The crossroads are here for the UW System, and for the state. If you value it, you’d better choose wisely in November.

New Walker tax proposals laughably desperate, with no money to pay for it

Fresh off of seeing Dems outvote Republicans by more than 8% in this week's primary, our desperate Governor decided to throw out a number of tax cut plans to see if the media would give them free, uncritical publicity.

However, the Wisconsin State Journal's Matt DeFour didn't take the bait, and actually dug into the policies that Walker was proposing. DeFour's article noted that Walker’s “new” ideas are similar to things that Evers called for months ago.

Walker is calling for a new tax credit of up to $5,000 over five years for college graduates who live and work in Wisconsin as a way to reduce student loan debt. Evers has called for a new statewide authority to help college graduates in the state refinance their student loan debt and new tax incentives to help retain college graduates, though he hasn't offered specifics. (Note, there already is a Dem bill that would do the things Evers supports, but the article doesn’t say if what Evers is backing is that exact bill).

Walker also wants to provide a state child care tax credit of up to $6,000 per year per family to match the federal child care tax credit. Democrats introduced a bill that did something similar last session, but it went nowhere. Evers said during the primary he supported a state child care tax credit.

Our Governor sure seems UNINTIMIDATED, doesn’t he? You can tell the guy just got a polling memo back and grabbed for the first thing he could find.

Among the rest of Walker's proposals are items that Walker and WisGOP have done little to take care of since 2011 – until they saw the 2018 Blue Wave rolling in.

Walker also is calling for a tax credit to help senior citizens stay in their homes, though he didn't provide specifics. The state already offers a homestead credit intended to do just that, though Walker and Republicans in the Legislature ended indexing of the credit in his first budget and eliminated it for non-disabled people under age 62 in his most recent budget.

Walker wants to expand youth apprenticeships to students in 7th and 8th grades, a proposal he previously mentioned in an interview with the Wisconsin State Journal when he declared himself a "pro-education governor." Walker also plans to increase spending on technical education, though he didn't specify by how much.

And Walker plans to continue the University of Wisconsin System tuition freeze for four more years. Evers, a member of the UW Board of Regents, said Wednesday he supports a tuition freeze if it is offset by additional state aid for higher education.

Notice one big difference between Walker and Evers’ plans? Evers actually recognizes that there needs to be money available to pay for these things, and to maintain quality in education.

Just like with the roads, lifetime grifter Scott Walker apparently feels that available funds will fall from the sky to make all of his big talk work out.

Hey Scotty, we have $2 billion in deficits looming for the 2019-21 because of the unpaid-for tax cuts and borrowing you pulled in previous years. So where’s the money for all this, Scotty?....WHERE’S THE F’ING MONEY????

I can imagine Walker pounding walls and collapsing into Tonette’s arms like this as he sees another poll showing him and the rest of the GOP falling further behind for November. Gov Dropout is losing, he knows it, and is acting like a con man who can’t get his schemes over on anyone anymore.

It’s pathetic, and if the need to get this dishonest dimwit out of office wasn’t so big, I’d be laughing my ass off at how Scotty is flopping about.

Primary turnout points to WisDems being in good shape for November

I mentioned before yesterday's statewide primary that the turnout numbers would likely be more noteworthy to me than who won or lost, or how much they won or lost by.

Sure enough, that's the case, especially on the Democratic side, where even though Tony Evers fell short of 50%, he was still 25 points ahead of his nearest challenger. Leah Vukmir's 6-point victory in the GOP's primary for US Senate was intriguing, but more because of what she DIDN'T do versus the fact that Vukmir got more votes than Kevin Nicholson.

For some reason, Republicans cast more votes in the noncompetitive for Governor than they did in the close race for Senate, so I'll use the Governor's amount as the GOP total from yesterday.

Total votes and share, Governor primary
Dem 537,719 (54.1%)
GOP 455,966 (45.9%)

While Evers grabbed a smaller share of the vote in the Dem Governor’s race than Vukmir grabbed in the GOP Senate race, it shouldn't be confused with Evers being in a weak position nor Vukmir in a strong one. That's because Evers ended up having more people vote for him, as Democrats had notably higher turnout than Republicans last night.

Total vote share of race
Vukmir, GOP Senate 49.04%
Nicholson, GOP Senate 43.04%
Evers, Dem Governor 41.75%

Total votes
Evers 224,502
Vukmir 217,023
Nicholson 190,840

Which makes the CEO of ULine Corporation the biggest loser from last night, since we know Dick Uihlein blew at least $10.7 million on Nicholson. So that guy’s “investment” cost $56 a vote, with no win. Hope that was worth it, Dick. If I was a worker or shareholder at ULine, I would be PISSED at how much my CEO is wasting on politics instead of giving it back to my workers and stockholders.

The GOP Senate primary had some odd numbers in general. If you look at the map showing who won which counties in the primary, and you were told that Nicholson was in red and Vukmir in orange, you’d think Nicholson would have won big.



Vukmir lost more than ¾ of the counties in the state (57 of 72), and won ONE county west of I-39/US 51. So how did we get stuck having to hear the screeches of the Crazed Queen of ALEC for the next 12 weeks? Because the talk radio-listening Republican sheep in the 262 and 414 area codes voted for her in large margins, and also made up a disproportionate share of the GOP electorate.

Don’t believe me? Take a look at the chart I had from my “primary preview” post which showed the share different counties got in the presidential primaries of April 2016, and compare it to what we had on Tuesday in the GOP’s Senate primary. I have separated the City of Milwaukee from the rest of Miwaukee County in the 2018 figures, and you'll see why in a bit.

In April 2016, the 3 WOW Counties accounted for less than 21% of the total GOP vote, while nearly 25% of yesterday's Senate vote came from those 3 places. And Vukmir received between 61 and 67% of the vote in all 3 of those counties.

But that's not something that will translate into November success. “Talk radio land” has a second side to it, where the area is drifting away from Trump and the GOP AS A WHOLE. Sure, Vukmir got a lot of the sheep who stayed with the Republicans, but that area is bleeding GOP votes in general. That is particularly true if you look at the Dem vs. GOP figures in suburban Milwaukee County and in Ozaukee County.

GOP vs Dem vote share of primary electorate
Suburban Milwaukee Co.
April 2016 50.9% GOP, 49.1% Dem (GOP +1.8%)
August 2018 60.5% Dem, 39.5% GOP (Dem +21.0%, 22.8% change)

Ozaukee County
April 2016 GOP 67.6%, Dem 32.4% (GOP +35.2%)
August 2018 GOP 61.0%, Dem 39.0% (GOP +22%, 13.2% change)

Yes, maybe some of that “Milwaukee County burbs” number for Democrats is skewed higher by the Milwaukee County Sheriff’s race (congrats to Earnell Lucas and to Milwaukee County in getting its first Sheriff in 17 years to give a damn about them). But it also indicates that quite a few of the burbs that were driven away by Trumpism in November 2016 are not coming back to WisGOP.

And it wasn’t just the Milwaukee burbs that had major shifts to Dems in turnout yesterday. Take a look at this chart from the incomparable J. Miles Coleman at Decision Desk HQ.

With just a few votes out in the #WIGov primary, Democrats cast about 9% more votes than Republicans. In addition to their bases in Milwaukee & Madison, Dems were pretty strong in the Driftless Area (the region bordering IA & MN). #WIPrimary pic.twitter.com/orRMBVQQC9

— J. Miles Coleman (@JMilesColeman) August 15, 2018

Look at all that blue in Western Wisconsin, and compare it to the red-blue county map from the last two presidential elections in Wisconsin.



Yesterday looks a lot more like 2012 (Obama wins by 6) than 2016 (Trump by less than 1%). And that’s especially bad news for GOPs Howard Marklein and Kathy Bernier, as they try to hold onto GOP-held Senate seats in the middle of that field of Western Wisconsin blue.

Another area that turned toward Dems vs 2016 are two areas that already favor Dems- Dane and Rock counties in South Central Wisconsin. The turnout disparity is so extreme that it has to be pointed out.

Dane County
April 2016 70.4% Dem, 29.6% GOP (Dem +40.8%)
August 2018 84.9% Dem, 15.1% GOP (Dem +69.8%, +29.0% change)

Rock County
April 2016 53.7% Dem, 46.3% GOP (Dem +7.4%)
August 2018 69.8% Dem, 30.2% GOP (Dem +39.6%, +32.2% change)

You wonder why Mark Pocan is unopposed in November in Wisconsin’s 2nd district? And why we don't see many political ads in the Madison media market as you might see in a place like Green Bay? The GOP is in real danger of slipping out of existence in a fast-growing part of the state, and putting themselves in a massive hole to have to dig out of in the rest of the state.

Lastly, Evers’ strong showing in the Dem primary outstate (he consistently beat 50% in most rural counties outside of “Vinehout land” near the Mississippi River) might portend well in keeping an area that Walker has won big in for his past elections.

For #WIGov (D), education superintendent Tony Evers won easily. Mahlon Mitchell had a base in Milwaukee & State Sen Kathleen Vinehout won some counties in her district, but Evers swept the rest of the state. He was strongest up north, where Dems have struggled lately. #WIPrimary pic.twitter.com/7BznMiVGqL

— J. Miles Coleman (@JMilesColeman) August 15, 2018

Remember, Walker has never pulled more than 53% in a Governor’s elections to begin with, even in GOP years like 2010 and 2014. Now you get these double-digit changes around Milwaukee and Madison combined with Evers being able to hold his own in rural areas, and Scotty is DONE.

And doesn’t Scotty know it. Look at this loser talk from yesterday.

Facing "race of our lifetime" in WI, @ScottWalker warns supporters that after Tuesday's primary he may trail whomever Dems nominate.
Says:
“You could have Daffy Duck on the ballot for the Democrats, and they’ll start out with at least 48% of the vote."https://t.co/MSEfIfzvJz

— Craig Gilbert (@WisVoter) August 13, 2018

Except that Dems haven't pulled 48% in any of Walker's 3 elections, and both Russ Feingold and Hillary Clinton coukdn't get to 47% in 2016. So it sounds like the 2018 version of Scott Walker is already less liked than previous ones, and that the 2018 Dems are in a much better spot.

It reminds me that I may hate the 21st Century GOP’s whining more than any other attribute of those jerkoffs. And if Tuesday’s turnout figures are any indication of what we’ll see in November, expect to hear a lot more bitching from the Republicans as things drift away from them.

On day of primary, more proof of Walker/WisGOP failures on road funding

No matter who wins tonight's Democratic primary for Governor, one thing that candidate needs to talk about is the handcuffing of local government, how it's led to the state's roads falling apart, and connecting it to the decisions made by Scott Walker and other Wisconsin Republicans in the last 7 1/2 years.

This was shown again with the recent release of the League of Wisconsin Municipalities' State of Wisconsin’s Cities and Villages. As the LWM's document noted, Walker's DOT did not help localities fund their roads in the most recent year measured, either through the regular amount of general shared revenues, or in specific road aids.

State Aids Stagnant. The slowdown in total revenue growth was largely due to stagnant state aid, which rose just 0.1% in 2016. The largest aid to cities and villages, shared revenues, was unchanged, while road aids declined 2.3%. The drop in road aids resulted from a nearly 50% decline in funding for the local road improvement program (LRIP), which pays up to half of eligible costs for repairing “seriously deteriorating” roads. Relatively few projects are funded each year. LRIP funding nearly doubled in 2015, and in 2016 it returned to its 2014 level.

This is related to the decision by Walker and his GOP lackeys in the Legislature to follow the orders of DC lobbyist Grover Norquist in refusing to raise gas taxes or most registration fees. And it's getting worse, as Wisconsin Public Radio recently reported on a DOT move designed to stretch the state's limited dollars in the Tranportation Fund, but in reality lets WisDOT skimp on its share of highway projects.

After years of bridge replacement delays due to a lack of state funding, the DOT has rolled out a new program called "Replace-In-Kind." It directs local governments applying for state bridge aid to design replacements to minimum state engineering standards based on current traffic. If the application qualifies, the state promises to pay for 80 percent of the replacement cost with local governments picking up the rest.

If counties or municipalities want to design bridges that go beyond the minimum standards, the "Replace-In-Kind" policy lets them do it but on their own dime.

See if you can spot the flaw in this thinking, beyond just having the money-strapped local governments have to pay with increasingly scarce funds.

The key words are “based on current traffic,” and let’s have Price County Highway Commissioner Don Grande explain why.

"Once this bridge is replaced, this bridge will serve PCA, the paper company over in Tomahawk, as a direct route off of Highway 8," said Grande. "The traffic volumes will increase once the bridge is replaced and the weight limits come off. We’re concerned that we’re going to under-size or under-design that bridge just to be able [to get] the funding.

There won't be more traffic here at some point, will there?

And if Price County thinks there will be more traffic coming across that bridge once it's fully re-opened, it has to pay for any capacity increases under the Walker DOT’s “rightsizing” program, and many Wisconsin places are struggling to come up with the money to do so.

While the DOT and the governor have celebrated "Replace-In-Kind" for helping the state approve 183 bridge replacements, Wisconsin County Highway Association Executive Director Dan Fedderly said the real test will be how many local governments can afford to build them.

"So all we're doing is shifting the cost to a place where you can’t fund them," said Fedderly. "And without a comprehensive, sustainable, long-term revenue at the state level we will only be talking about this over and over and we’re at the point where there is no ability to shift those costs."

And it's not just the bridges. Let's go back to the LWM report, where it clearly shows that local roads have deteriorated in recent years,

Every two years, the Wisconsin Department of Transportation (DOT) collects information from cities and villages on street quality. The 2017 data is self-reported by municipal officials using a standardized DOT rating system for road segments. (See box on page 13.) The rated streets account for about 87% of the 49,100 total miles in these cities and villages. The share of road miles with ratings has remained relatively constant over the past three years and we focus our analysis on these street segments.

“Good” or Better. Statewide, 2017 saw a drop in the share of city and village roads that local officials rated as “good,” “very good,” or “excellent.” The percentage fell to 67.7% from 68.8% in 2016 and is now 4.3 percentage points below the 2011 mark of 72%. (See Figure 2.8, page 12.) Despite these declines, more than two-thirds of municipal roads require little or no repair. Streets rated “good” or better need relatively minor maintenance, such as coating pavement with a sealer or filling cracks, but not major rehabilitation or new construction. The decrease this year in the reported number of high-quality streets was driven by a decline in the percentage of streets rated “excellent” and “very good.” In 2017, 14.7% of streets were rated “excellent” and 15.5% were rated “very good,” down 0.6 and 1.5 percentage points respectively from the previous year.

“Fair” or Worse. With a lower percentage of streets rated “good” or better by city and village officials, the percentage rated “fair” or worse inevitably increased. In 2016, 31.2% of streets were rated “fair,” “poor,” “very poor,” or “failed,” but in 2017, that share increased to 32.3%. The reported increase in lower-quality streets was driven mostly by an increase in roads rated “fair” and “very poor,” up 1 and 0.2 percentage points respectively.

And the LWM says this is especially true in the smaller Wisconsin communities, who have also suffered from declining tax bases and populations.

By Population Group. The smallest cities and villages had the biggest declines in road quality. (See Table 2.4.) Communities of fewer than 15,000 people reported the largest drops in the share of streets rated “good” or better and the largest increases in roads rated “poor” or worse. In spite of this change, cities and villages with between 1,000 and 15,000 residents generally have better quality roads than larger municipalities. But in 2017, the gap in road quality narrowed between these communities and the largest urban areas.

And yet Scott Walker and WisGOP Legislators, who have owed a lot of victories to winning in rural areas, seem to have absolutely no plan to stop local roads from falling apart. Walker continues to spout Koched-up goobledygook about "no net tax increase", which isn't going to pay the bills when we have deficits of $1 billion looming in both the General and Transportation funds.

The other problem with Walker's and WisGOP's assed policies on state aids is that they have consistently decided to make local communities adhere to strict property tax limits so they can have an increasingly out-of-favor talking point. As a result, local communities have few options they have left under state law, which helps explain all of the wheel taxes that have been cropping up in Wisconsin over the last 5 years. The latest area looking at a new registration fee is in La Crosse, who are looking at a fee between $25 and $56 a year.

Like a lot of other things in this state, it'll take electing Democrats to stop this decline, and to free up local communities to take in the money that they need to keep more Scottholes from appearing. And what got us in this mess is the intentional buck-passing and outright failure to keep up the roads by Walker and other WisGOPs, and it should be something hit on constantly for the next 12 weeks by whoever is able to win the Dem primary tonight.

Yes, this site looks different

I am experimenting with a new look,for the In-house. Yes, the green and blue background had its low-tech kitsch, but I'll go with a more buttoned-down look from here.

Time to buckle down these next 12 weeks.