Sunday, January 19, 2020

Pack shelled in Frisco




You gotta laugh about it. Getting drilled like this offers no other option. The Pack was always kind of a mirage, and it was quite an accomplishment for this team to get to 13-3 and 1 game from the Super Bowl. Now they know how far they still have to go (and it is still quite a distance).

Dr. King Day - we need to listen to the man's words more than ever

As we celebrate the greatness of Dr. Martin Luther King, it's useful to actually read and listen to what the man actually said. With that in mind, here are a couple of excerpts from the "Letter from a Birmingham Jail" that Dr. King wrote in 1963.
We know through painful experience that freedom is never voluntarily given by the oppressor; it must be demanded by the oppressed. Frankly, I have never yet engaged in a direct-action movement that was "well timed" according to the timetable of those who have not suffered unduly from the disease of segregation. For years now I have heard the word "wait." It rings in the ear of every Negro with a piercing familiarity. This "wait" has almost always meant "never." It has been a tranquilizing thalidomide, relieving the emotional stress for a moment, only to give birth to an ill-formed infant of frustration. We must come to see with the distinguished jurist of yesterday that "justice too long delayed is justice denied." We have waited for more than three hundred and forty years for our God-given and constitutional rights. The nations of Asia and Africa are moving with jetlike speed toward the goal of political independence, and we still creep at horse-and-buggy pace toward the gaining of a cup of coffee at a lunch counter. I guess it is easy for those who have never felt the stinging darts of segregation to say "wait." But when you have seen vicious mobs lynch your mothers and fathers at will and drown your sisters and brothers at whim; when you have seen hate-filled policemen curse, kick, brutalize, and even kill your black brothers and sisters with impunity; when you see the vast majority of your twenty million Negro brothers smothering in an airtight cage of poverty in the midst of an affluent society; when you suddenly find your tongue twisted and your speech stammering as you seek to explain to your six-year-old daughter why she cannot go to the public amusement park that has just been advertised on television, and see tears welling up in her little eyes when she is told that Funtown is closed to colored children, and see the depressing clouds of inferiority begin to form in her little mental sky, and see her begin to distort her little personality by unconsciously developing a bitterness toward white people; when you have to concoct an answer for a five-year-old son asking in agonizing pathos, "Daddy, why do white people treat colored people so mean?"; when you take a cross-country drive and find it necessary to sleep night after night in the uncomfortable corners of your automobile because no motel will accept you; when you are humiliated day in and day out by nagging signs reading "white" and "colored"; when your first name becomes "nigger" and your middle name becomes "boy" (however old you are) and your last name becomes "John," and when your wife and mother are never given the respected title "Mrs."; when you are harried by day and haunted by night by the fact that you are a Negro, living constantly at tiptoe stance, never knowing what to expect next, and plagued with inner fears and outer resentments; when you are forever fighting a degenerating sense of "nobodyness" -- then you will understand why we find it difficult to wait. There comes a time when the cup of endurance runs over and men are no longer willing to be plunged into an abyss of injustice where they experience the bleakness of corroding despair. I hope, sirs, you can understand our legitimate and unavoidable impatience...

We can never forget that everything Hitler did in Germany was "legal" and everything the Hungarian freedom fighters did in Hungary was "illegal." It was "illegal" to aid and comfort a Jew in Hitler's Germany. But I am sure that if I had lived in Germany during that time, I would have aided and comforted my Jewish brothers even though it was illegal. If I lived in a Communist country today where certain principles dear to the Christian faith are suppressed, I believe I would openly advocate disobeying these anti-religious laws.
Those words are as relevant as ever in 2020. Actions are decided to be legal/illegal and enforced because people in charge decide to make a certain act legal/illegal and decide whether to enforce it. All of these things are choices, and it is up to the people to remove those who are choosing unwisely and/or destructively.

And I find myself repeating this next part a lot, especially as the 2020 primaries get closer.
I must make two honest confessions to you, my Christian and Jewish brothers. First, I must confess that over the last few years I have been gravely disappointed with the white moderate. I have almost reached the regrettable conclusion that the Negro's great stumbling block in the stride toward freedom is not the White Citizens Councillor or the Ku Klux Klanner but the white moderate who is more devoted to order than to justice; who prefers a negative peace which is the absence of tension to a positive peace which is the presence of justice; who constantly says, "I agree with you in the goal you seek, but I can't agree with your methods of direct action"; who paternalistically feels that he can set the timetable for another man's freedom; who lives by the myth of time; and who constantly advises the Negro to wait until a "more convenient season." Shallow understanding from people of good will is more frustrating than absolute misunderstanding from people of ill will. Lukewarm acceptance is much more bewildering than outright rejection.

In your statement you asserted that our actions, even though peaceful, must be condemned because they precipitate violence. But can this assertion be logically made? Isn't this like condemning the robbed man because his possession of money precipitated the evil act of robbery? Isn't this like condemning Socrates because his unswerving commitment to truth and his philosophical delvings precipitated the misguided popular mind to make him drink the hemlock? Isn't this like condemning Jesus because His unique God-consciousness and never-ceasing devotion to His will precipitated the evil act of crucifixion? We must come to see, as federal courts have consistently affirmed, that it is immoral to urge an individual to withdraw his efforts to gain his basic constitutional rights because the quest precipitates violence. Society must protect the robbed and punish the robber.

I had also hoped that the white moderate would reject the myth of time. I received a letter this morning from a white brother in Texas which said, "All Christians know that the colored people will receive equal rights eventually, but is it possible that you are in too great of a religious hurry? It has taken Christianity almost 2000 years to accomplish what it has. The teachings of Christ take time to come to earth." All that is said here grows out of a tragic misconception of time. It is the strangely irrational notion that there is something in the very flow of time that will inevitably cure all ills. Actually, time is neutral. It can be used either destructively or constructively. I am coming to feel that the people of ill will have used time much more effectively than the people of good will. We will have to repent in this generation not merely for the vitriolic words and actions of the bad people but for the appalling silence of the good people. We must come to see that human progress never rolls in on wheels of inevitability. It comes through the tireless efforts and persistent work of men willing to be coworkers with God, and without this hard work time itself becomes an ally of the forces of social stagnation.
Settling will only get you so far, and is a sign of accepting defeat. I know it's easy for me to say as a white guy, but accepting defeat and inferior outcomes are not things I am into these days.

And let me also include this great compilation of Dr. King speeches on economic power, and the lack of empowerment that comes with poverty, which he came to recognize as every bit the social problem that legal segregation was. Never forget that when Dr. King was shot in Memphis, he was standing up for the rights of striking workers.



"All labor has dignity. But you are doing another thing. You are reminding not only Memphis, but also the nation, that it is a crime for people to live in this rich nation, and receive starvation wages. "

"We all read one day 'We hold these truths to be self-evident, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain inalienable rights, that among these are life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness. But if a man doesn't have a job or income, he has neither life, nor liberty, [nor] the possibility of the pursuit of happiness. He merely exists. "

And here is an excerpt of Dr. King being interviewed on the Tonight Show in early 1968 by Harry Belafonte (!), where he admits that getting the right to vote and ending Jim Crow didn't do much to change the second-class existence that poor people around America were dealing.



I'd like to see the right-wingers that will try shamelessly latch onto Dr. King tomorrow to follow those words on poverty and economic power. Somehow, I'm guessing they won't. Nor will they listen to Dr. King's words about the tricks that the white power structure uses to pass voting laws that seek to return us to the days of Jim Crow and second-class citizenship for a lot of Americans, and to lessen the chances that those in power will be held accountable. I bet a 90-year-old Dr. King would be furious at the extra barriers in 2020 that have been put in place to prevent voting and in receiving basic human benefits that are intended to hurt one class at the expense of another.

I can't help but note that 7 months after Dr. King was assassinated, 43% of voters chose Richard Nixon to be president, which was enough for him to sneak by. I think you can point to the start of this country's decline of hope and advancement from that point on. Sure, there have been strides in some social areas, but it sure seems like we've been going backward in others. And our economy still isn't working for a whole lot of people these days, with many seeing their wages repressed, with those people beholden to their bosses and insurance companies instead of having the freedom to choose their own destinies.

We gotta get back to trying to reach the more perfect union that Dr. King wanted to see. 2020 may be the last chance for those changes to happen in any kind of stable way.

Saturday, January 18, 2020

Revenue figures in Wisconsin still solid, which means pre-election pandering is coming next week


Next week, we should see new revenue estimates for Wisconsin from the Legislative Fiscal Bureau, and indications from the first half of Fiscal Year 2020 indicate that there should be some extra money to play with. But how good and how much breathing room we will have? That seems quite up in the air, given the numbers that have come in.

Just last week, the Department of Revenue released the December state revenue collections. And much like with the unemployment claims, there has been difficulty in accurately comparing two years when Thanksgiving came early (in 2018) and came late (in 2019), along with November ending on a Saturday this year. The DOR tries to adjust for the holidays and months ending on weekends, but you'll see that this meant large fluctuations between the two years.


An increase of income taxes of around 4.5% is pretty good, and the 6-month increase of 3.4% is above the projected full-year estimated increase of 1.1% that was as part of the state budget (before accounting for the higher refunds that are coming due to one of the income tax cuts that were part of the budget). Then combine that with the 4.1% increase in sales taxes over the last 6 months (which is above the 3.2% projected increase in the budget), and that in itself would mean a decent increase will likely be projected in the new revenue estimates.

But the bigger increase in next week's revenue estimates may be a result of corporate revenues, because of a quirk in the GOP's Tax Scam in DC. Since that became law at the end of 2017, Wisconsin saw a notable jump in corporate taxes paid, especially in 2019.


Why? Because as the LFB told us during their last revenue estimates in 2019, Wisconsin business are glad to become "corporations" these days, because paying a bit more to the State of Wisconsin is worth it when they get a much larger windfall from the GOP Tax Scam.
As noted, higher than expected entity-level tax payments and shifting of income from tax year 2017 to tax year 2018 in response to the TCJA contributed to higher than expected year-to-date collections. In addition, compared to the January forecast, IHS Markit's May forecast of 2019 growth in economic profits increased by 1.6 percentage points to 6.3%. For tax year 2019, S corporations and partnerships choosing to pay at the entity level are required to make quarterly payments, resulting in a one-time higher fiscal effect from S corporations remitting two estimated payments for tax year 2019 and full-year tax payments for tax year 2018. Previously, for tax purposes, such entities would have passed through their income to their owners, most of whom would have filed under the individual income tax. As a result, collections data suggest that a sizable amount of payments will now be made under the corporate income/franchise tax on a continuing basis.
The LFB thought some of this effect will cool off in Fiscal Year 2020, resulting in a drop of corporate revenues of $170 million overall. However, the first 6 months of FY 2020 saw corporate tax revenues increase by nearly $300 million, so it seems likely we will end up significantly over the LFB projections for this Fiscal Year, which would allow for more money to be available.

If we do see a sizable increase in revenues projected, the question will then become "more tax cuts, more spending, or save it?" We know GOP Senate Majority Leader/Congressional candidate Scott Fitzgerald is already pandering clamoring for more tax cuts, likely in the form of more shell games where state taxes are spent to lower property taxes.

But we also know that there are significant needs remaining for the state's roads to be fixed up, increased costs due to severe weather events, and several years of education defunding that we are still trying to catch up to. These can also take strains off of the property tax, and perhaps take care of both needs at once, instead of using up these funds on another tax cut before we even get to see what the revenue effect of the sizable tax cuts in the 2019-21 are.

That's the preview, and you need to be ready for it, because you can bet that next week's new revenue figures will be followed by a lot of pre-election pandering and posing from both sides of the aisle.

Now even the locals are planning for the Fox-con to come up short...and to get bailed out

Good work by Patrick Marley of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel to get actual emails and documents that show the local yokels who have given hundreds of millions of dollars to Foxconn are looking at their escape plan if/when this thing fizzles out.

The numbers and details come from a meeting a few months ago between the Village of Mount Pleasant and officials from the Wisconsin Department of Administration, and looked at the increasing reality that the Fox-con won't be all that we were told it was going to be.
The team, which included consultant Ehlers Inc., estimated Foxconn’s project and other developments in a Mount Pleasant tax incremental financing district would soon be worth $522 million. That’s about 37% of the $1.4 billion value the district is supposed to achieve by 2023.

The team's views on the project were included in a four-page outline released Friday by Racine County under the state’s open records law. The outline was produced for a September meeting on the project involving officials from the county, Mount Pleasant and the state Department of Administration.
$522 million doesn't come close to the $913 million that Mount Pleasant has borrowed for the Foxconn Tax Incremental District, money that they are borrowing and paying back today, in the hope that Foxconn will be paying it back in taxes later due to higher land values.


In addition, Marley notes a part of Mount Pleasant's plan that figures one of the ways out of this mess is to over-assess the value of whatever Foxconn builds (assuming they do build it).
Most of the estimated value in the tax incremental district — $400 million — would come from a huge plant Foxconn plans to build. The remaining $122 million in value would come from a server building, data center, substation and other developments....

The outline did not describe how the team reached that conclusion. The facility is expected to have a footprint of 1 million square feet, and an assessment of $400 million would give it a value of $400 per square foot.

It's possible the plant will ultimately have more than 1 million square feet because of mezzanines and office space that could be built, which would bring the value per square foot down. Still, the value appears to be far above that of other manufacturing facilities in Wisconsin, which are valued at well below $40 per square foot in most cases, according to people familiar with manufacturing assessments.
Oh, I'm sure the execs at Foxconn will just shrug and accept that inflated assessment.

WRONG. They'll avoid paying any taxes at all, and pay lawyers to challenge the assessment in court, tying up Mount Pleasant for years and forcing them to take on extra costs to argue the case. This is a common practice among many large corporations in Wisconsin, and we've seen the grifters at Foxconn are even seamier than that crowd.

Which means the Village of Mount Pleasant will have even LESS money coming in than expected, in a time when it is already facing financial difficulty from the extra debt it has to take on to build up (unneeded) infrastructure for this scam.

Remember, Mount Pleasant is already taking on another $112 million in debt this year in order to pay off another $143 million in debt and infrastructure.


And in 2019, Mount Pleasant only got $8.4 million in taxes back from Foxconn to pay for all of these tax-funded gifts, meaning the homeowners left in the Village have to pay much more on their property taxes to make up the difference.

But don't worry, Marley notes that if the Foxconn development fizzles out, they'll just ask the rest of us in Wisconsin to bail them out.
In such a situation, there would not be enough money available to pay for operating costs and some debt, according to the outline. The local governments would face a shortfall even if they deferred sewer projects and abandoned plans to build a new fire station.

If the project were to hit bumps in the road, state taxpayers could have to cover up to $120 million in debt for local governments, according to an agreement with the state.
That seems to be light, as the "moral obligation clause" in the Fox-con package covers up to 40% of the debts that the local yokels have to take on. I assume they are figuring that their higher land value assessments will mean that Mount Pleasant is "only" $300 million in the hole. But what if the Village doesn't get that amount? Then I'd assume the price tag to the state would rise higher (if we choose to pay it).


This story and other recent developments seem to show the groundwork being laid for an escape hatch. The people on the inside know the Fox-con isn't going to be anything resembling what was sold, and now they're trying to figure out how to sell the failure to the public.

Time for the Evers Administration to play hardball with both this grifting company, and the GOP crooks at the local and state level, and let neither of them off the hook for the lies and costs that the rest of us will have to take on due to this scam that had a lot more to do with Scott Walker's 2018 election campaign than it had to do with any kind of economic development.

Friday, January 17, 2020

Wild Wisconsin weather becoming increasingly costly

As the snow flies around Wisconsin this Friday night, it's the latest in a number of severe-weather events in Wisconsin that has led to an increasing amount of cost to deal with the damage and after-effects of these storms.

Just this week, the Legislature's Joint Finance Committee had to deal with a couple of unbudgeted expenses that were the result of weather. The first was a request by the Evers Administration to pay for bills racked up by local governments around the state due to natural disasters, whose costs have gone well beyond what is set aside in the 2019-21 budget.

The money is paid out through the Department of Military Affairs, and the Legislative Fiscal Bureau describes how the program works as follows.
State Disaster Assistance Program. The state disaster assistance program, created in 2005 Act 269,makes payments to local units of government and retail electric cooperatives for governmental costs, such as debris clearance, protective measures, and damage to roads and bridges,incurred as the result of a "major catastrophe." A major catastrophe is defined as a disaster, including a drought, flood, high wind, hurricane, landslide, mudslide, snowstorm, or tornado that resulted in the Governor requesting a presidential declaration of a major disaster under federal law. In 2018-19, for example, DMA provided assistance relating to a tornado in Northwestern Wisconsin, floods in Southeastern Wisconsin, and an ice storm in Iron County.

Under administrative rule,local governmental units may be reimbursed if the following eligibility criteria are satisfied: (a) the local governmental unit has suffered a "major catastrophe"; (b) a disaster or emergency declaration was issued by the local governmental unit or the state during event; (c) the damages suffered and eligible costs incurred are the direct result of the event; (d) federal disaster assistance is not available because the Governor's request that the President declare the catastrophe a major disaster has been denied or no federal assistance is requested because the event does not meet the per capita impact indicator issued by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA); (e) at least one local governmental unit or a tribal governmental unit within the county has incurred public assistance costs that exceed the per capita impact indicator under the public assistance program guidelines issued by FEMA; and (f) the local governmental unit will contribute at least 30% of the total amount of eligible costs incurred from other funding sources.
President Trump has allowed for FEMA to help out Wisconsin with nearly $73 million in aid for damages resulting from floods in August and September 2018, and for the effects of a storm breakout in July 2019. But that only pays for 75% of those damages, and there have been several other events in the last 1 1/2 years that local governments are asking for help in cleaning up from.

The LFB notes that there is some money that is budgeted for reimbursements for natural disasters, but it's often not been enough to cover all of the disasters that have hit the state.
Two appropriations authorize DMA to provide disaster assistance. A state disaster assistance GPR appropriation is funded at $0 annually during the 2019-21 biennium. Since its creation in Act 269, the Legislature has not used this appropriation to provide funds.Further, DMA has a SEG continuing state disaster assistance appropriation supported by [the Petroleum Inspection Fund]. As a continuing appropriation, any amounts appropriated do not lapse back to PIF at the end of a fiscal year, but remain in the DMA appropriation until expended. Table 1 below shows expenditure authority under the SEG disaster assistance fund appropriation since 2010-11.

The problem is that $4.2 million had to be spent in the 2017-19 biennium to pay for disasters, which means the DMA is out of money to pay for what we have now, even with nearly 6 months left in this fiscal year.

Disaster Assistance Fund, 2019-20
Money available $1,745,200
MINUS Wash Island earmark $1,000,000
MONEY LEFT $745,200

Money paid out by Jan 1, 2020 $698,600
Other approved/pending aid requests $1,656,400
DEFICIT SO FAR $1,609,800

The Evers Administration wanted to have an additional $800,000 on top of that deficit for this year and another $244,800 in the next fiscal year to have some money set aside for regular disaster requests that will come in. But the Republicans on the JFC decided to only pay for the $1.6 million deficit that already exists, and if there's a need for more money, they'll come back later.

The JFC also unanimously agreed to pay out for another set of weather-related expenses - $1.2 million that will go to the DNR to repair storm damage in State Parks and Forests from last Summer.
The forestry emergency reserve was created in 2017 Wisconsin Act 59 to provide funds for emergency responses to significant fire, disease, infestation, or other natural disasters that could not otherwise be reimbursed by federal funds. Reserve funds also may only be transferred or expended upon approval of the Joint Committee on Finance. As a continuing appropriation, amounts are usable only for purposes specified and do not lapse to the forestry account balance to become available for other purposes. To date, no transfers have been made from this appropriation, and it continues to carry $5,000,000 SEG provided under Act 59.

Beginning on July 18, 2019, significant portions of the state were affected by extreme weather events, including hailstorms, tornadoes, heavy winds, and thunderstorms. DNR reports that more than 285,000 acres of forestland in Barron, Polk, Langlade, Oconto, Oneida, Wood, and Portage Counties were damaged in the storms. On July 21, 2019, the Governor declared a state of emergency related to the storm damage.

The DNR request would transfer $1,166,900, including: (a) $677,800 to the Division of Forestry's general program operations appropriation under s. 20.370(2)(mv) of the statutes to reimburse staff expenses related to storm damage; and (b) $489,100 to the appropriation under s. Page 2 20.370(5)(az) of the statutes to fund grants provided to local communities for storm damage response, as shown in Table 1.
I remember those storms quite well - they hit on Friday night and the following Saturday afternoon, and as I drove back from Vilas County that Saturday, I saw this scene on I-39.


It seems likely JFC will have to decide whether to pay for more of these weather-related expenses in the coming months, as last week’s winter storms, 50+ mph wind gusts and high waves led to an estimated $10 million in damage to Lake Michigan docks and lakefront parkland in Milwaukee County.


There also were reports of damage to a breakwall and railings being washed away in Port Washington, and a home had to be evacuated in Pleasant Prairie because lakefront erosion caused part of its foundation to collapse.

On another form of infrastructure, Wisconsin sewer systems in many places cannot handle the increased flows of water due to higher amounts of rain in storms. While RW radio concentrates on Milwaukee's overflows, a recent Wisconsin Watch article notes that this has become a statewide problem. And that problem seems increasingly likely to occur as these rain events become more common with climate change.
Steve Vavrus, senior scientist with the University of Wisconsin-Madison’s Nelson Institute Center for Climatic Research, said climate change is driving Wisconsin’s record rainfall. Last year was the wettest in the state’s recorded state history, while 2018 was third-wettest, according to data from the Midwestern Regional Climate Center that dates back to 1895.

“There’s generally more moisture to tap when the weather systems are favorable for rainfall or snowfall,” said Vavrus. “When we do get rain or snow, it tends to be heavier than it used to.”

Excluding Milwaukee, Wisconsin communities in 2018 discharged 150 million gallons of sewage and stormwater during 388 overflow events. That was the highest volume since 2010, the fifth-wettest year on record.

As of October 2019, 359 million gallons overflowed from those communities’ systems, while Milwaukee discharged more than 500 million gallons into waterways. And that was in a year that the Milwaukee district captured and cleaned a record 85.6 billion gallons of water.
And that requires more infrastructure to be built by local governments that barely have enough money available to staff police and fire departments or fix their roads. Which means more state funding may be needed to improve these sewer systems if we want to avoid increased flooding, sewer backups and other bad things that are resulting from the more extreme weather that is hitting in the 21st Century.

Look, I understand that many Republicans are too Koched up to be honest about the reality of climate change, but it is undeniable that there are more severe weather events in Wisconsin, causing damage to increasingly expensive assets and disrupting more Wisconsinites each year. And that means we should expect to pay more for the costs of climate change, whether GOPs like it or not.

Thursday, January 16, 2020

Trade deals don't justify Bubbly stock market as real economy stays slow

While the DOW Jones rose by 267 points today as the China and USMCA deals advanced, don’t worry, we still have plenty of trade barriers remaining in America.
The White House has threatened to impose tariffs on $2.4 billion in French exports in response to a new digital tax France instituted, which the administration says is aimed at U.S. firms. In October, the Trump administration imposed new levies on $7.5 billion of EU exports, in retaliation for what the World Trade Organization agreed is unfair subsidies to Leiden, Netherlands-based aerospace company Airbus SE AIR, -0.64%, and it has still hasn’t revoked threats to impose tariffs on European auto parts and automobiles, which analysts have predicted would be a major problem for auto makers globally.

Meanwhile, the trade deal only rolled back a fraction of the new tariffs imposed by the U.S. and China during the past two years, with the U.S. keeping tariffs of between 7.5% and 25% on $370 billion in Chinese exports and China maintaining retaliatory duties on $110 billion in U.S. exports. JPMorgan analyst Dubravko Lakos-Bujas estimated that these already-existing tariffs are imposing an annual cost of $600 per American household and $5 in per-share earnings for the S&P 500.

“Nothing in phase one will specifically add much to global [economic] growth,” wrote Tom Essaye, president of the Sevens Report in a Thursday note to clients. “All we need to do is look to Treasurys and market internals to see that.”….

Some strategists make the case that, despite major equity benchmarks marching to new highs, the fundamental case for current valuations is becoming weaker, given tepid earnings growth, and likely won’t be helped much by the effects of a trade truce.
And I agree that trade deals by themselves may mean little. Underlying demand, prices paid/received and profit situations will likely be the bigger drivers of the economy (as they usually are). And that means jobs, output and consumer spending.

Now, maybe a surprising increase in the Philadelphia Federal Reserve’s manufacturing survey is a sign that maybe the manufacturing recession is ending. Obviously, we should wait to see if the same type of positivity is coming in more places and for more months, but if the manufacturing recession ends, and job growth and sales both home and abroad rebound, that's something that'll be a welcomed change from what we saw in most of 2019.

But on the flip side, the recently-finished Holiday shopping season was a "meh", as the Commerce Department’s retail sales report shows a decent-but-not-great seasonally adjusted increase of 0.3% for December. That followed another 0.3% increase in November, and is what a slow-growth economy would look like, not one that would warrant the S&P jumping by 2.7% for the first 2 weeks of 2020, or 16.5% over the last 5 months.

In fact, the retail sales and other recent economic reports prompted the Atlanta Federal Reserve to drop its estimates for 4th Quarter GDP to less than 2%.


We also saw real average hourly wages decline for December by 0.1%. Those average hourly wages haven't increased in 4 of the last 6 months, and only increased by a paltry 0.6% in 2019.


So what happens if the Main Street economy doesn't pick up in the coming months? The trade deals are all taken care of, and if the economy keeps slowing below 2% and real wages continue to stagnate, then why should the stock market keep going up on "trade optimism" and other con(fidence) games? And how sudden and large will the reversal be once that reality takes hold and people start cashing in their Bubbly profits?

Not trusting things at all these days.

Wednesday, January 15, 2020

Another month, another bad MU Law Poll sample.

All you need to know about Wednesday’s Marquette Law School Poll.
The partisan makeup of the sample, including those who lean to a party, is 47 percent Republican, 43 percent Democratic and 9 percent independent. The partisan makeup of the sample, excluding those who lean to a party, is 28 percent Republican, 26 percent Democratic, and 44 percent independent.
So R+4 (STOP LAUGHING!).

Then compare to the December Marquette Poll
The partisan makeup of the sample, including those who lean to a party, is 45 percent Republican, 44 percent Democratic and 9 percent independent. The partisan makeup of the sample, excluding those who lean to a party, is 30 percent Republican, 29 percent Democratic, and 39 percent independent.
OK, R+1.

Well that 3 point change helps explain this "shift" in the poll.


Then realize that the December poll was more Republican than the 2016 exit polls of Wisconsin (D+1), and 2018 exit polls of Wisconsin (EVEN).

So MU is assuming a Wisconsin electorate where Dems are going to be voting in big numbers out of anger/disgust against Trump will be…..5 points more Republican than 2016? Not a f’ing chance!

I just wish I knew why Chucky Franklin continues to play stupid with such a slanted poll (COUGH-Bradley funding COUGH). But when you, adjust for that 5-point slant, the numbers make a lot more sense.

MU Law Poll, with results 5 points more Dem
Biden +9
Sanders +6
Warren +2
Buttigieg +3

Trump approval -6

So Dems are leading and Trump is slightly disapproved of in Wisconsin (on the whole). Sounds about right.

Polls are data points, but can also agenda-setters and weapons too. Especially when RW-funded organizations are holding them. Always read the cross-tabs, and don’t fall for the “news” at face value.