Saturday, June 8, 2013

Wisconsin economy- it hasn't just sucked for the last 3 months

Been intriguing to see how people have caught onto the Philly Fed surveys of the state-by-state economy, both the coincident index, which measures economic activity in last 3 months, and the leading index, which projects the next 6 months.

These reports were released nearly 2 weeks ago, but got new life as more people looked over the numbers, and the Journal-Sentinel ran a large headline relaying the fact that the leading index survey showed that Wisconsin is expected to have the second-worst economy in the U.S. the next 6 months. And note that the Philly Fed survey has Wisconsin lagging all of its Midwestern neighbors between now and October.

But the "economic outlook" part only tells half the story. The other half is where we've been, and that's even worse. First off, Wisconsin also had the 2nd-worst economy in the nation the LAST 3 months, which also lagged everywhere else in the Midwest, and was well behind the country's solid growth.

Let's go back to the start of the Age of Fitzwalkerstan, in January 2011, and compare how Wisconsin has done with our neighbors and the U.S. as a whole. And yes, Wisconsin are those red marks on the bottom.

What's especially interesting here is that Minnesota was barely ahead of Wisconsin's growth through July 2012, 3.75% to 2.97%. Then Scott Walker was retained in the recall election, Dems took over both houses of the Legislature in Minnesota, and look where we are now.

Change in state coincident index, Jan 2011- Apr 2013
Minn +6.51%
Wis. +3.19%

Guess "job creators" made their choice after Walker's recall election, and that was to go to the Land of 10,000 Lakes.

Lastly, let's combine the past with the outlook for the future, using the Philly Fed's leading indexes. And you'll see that the gap between Wisconsin and everywhere else yawns even wider.

For you that are math-challenged, the Philly Fed is saying all of these places will grow AT LEAST 3 TIMES FASTER THAN WISCONSIN in the first 33 months Scott Walker will have been in office. While I'm a bit skeptical of the prediction of Illinois' economy taking off, they're already well ahead of us as it is, and I wouldn't doubt that the gap would grow in the coming months. So I want to know on what planet Walker can claim to his followers in the 262 that "we're moving forward." (Yes, I know the answer, Right-Wing Bubbleworld) There is not a shred of numerical economic evidence that Wisconsin has advanced in any way the last 27 months, and in fact we've greatly regressed and been passed by everyone else.

So while I'm glad to tell the Journal-Sentinel "Welcome to the party, pal!" when it comes to relaying how bad Wisconsin's economy is, they need to go back to 2011 to give the full picture on just how much this state has been held back by an Administration that continues to rely on talk-radio poses over policies that might work.

P.S.- Here's one last picture for you. The BEA released GDP by state for 2012 on Wednesday, and check out who's the only Midwest state in tan, then compare it with the 'Sotans and their 3.5% growth.

And oh yeah, Wisconsin was also dead last in the Midwest in 2011 GDP growth as well, at 1.3% growth. Any fucking questions?

1 comment:

  1. We know that the leading index is accurate for our Leader tells us so.

    The leading index is particularly ill-timed for Walker's re-election hopes: the QCEW rankings he'll be taking into November 2014 will be for March 2013 - March 2014. March-April sucked badly on all counts; if the next 6 months are going to have an actual Wisconsin recession then Walker will need to get in some serious practice applying porcine lip products.

    Don't forget that Wisconsin GDP grew 4.0% in 2010.

    Now stop posting and go get married!