Wednesday, November 9, 2016

Bellweather counties portends GOP win in Wisconsin

Obviously I’m deeply disturbed, somewhat scared and very disgusted over last night’s elections. And it's not just the horrid spectrre of Trump being president, but because of the fact that Drumpf and (mo)Ron Johnson won the state of Wisconsin. From the unofficial vote totals by county, here are a few quick things that stand out for me.

First, when I previewed what might be a bellweather for the rest of the state, I said that Adams County was a place that had not only nearly matched the state in November elections since 2008, but also swung drastically in favor of the winner.

That trend held up, in that Adams did go GOP yesterday, but the margin of victory swung wildly to the Republicans in Adams County, well above the close statewide votes.

Trump 47.9-47.0
Johnson 50.2-46.8

Adams County
Trump 59.2-37.4
Johnson 53.9-41.2

In addition, Adams County helped to return pro-CAFO/WisGOP legislators Scott Krug and Luther Olsen to the Capitol for another term, and removed Dem Sen. Julie Lassa from office in favor of another pro-Big Ag pollution Republican. Looks like that’s what they want, so feel free to round up the piggies and send them to Adams. Taste the greatness out of the tap!

Another thing I said is that if Kenosha County or Jackson County went for Trump, then he was likely to win the state. I didn’t really expect it to happen…but it did in both races.

Trump 47.9-47.0
Johnson 50.2-46.8

Jackson County
Trump 53.3-41.5
Johnson 50.4-44.8

Kenosha County
Trump 47.5-47.2
Johnson 49.5-47.0

To add onto those figures, notice that Feingold did better than Clinton in Jackson County (in Western Wisconsin) while Clinton outperformed Feingold in Kenosha County (in the SE corner of Wisconsin). From my cursory glance at the data, this seems to be a common pattern yesterday- Russ better on the western half, but underperforming Hillary in the Eastern half (and both getting beat pretty badly there, I’ll add).

And the 7 “bellweather” counties that were generally sure signs of Dem wins if they went blue? 0 for 7, and often favoring the GOP candidates by sizable amounts.

I’ll have much more at later points, but this is far too discouraging to go into past this point for me today

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