If Dallet win in Supreme Court translates to November, GOP should be scared

Wanted to forward you to the great work by J. Miles Coleman of Decision Desk HQ, who has broken down the voting in every ward in Wisconsin from Rebecca Dallet's 12-point victory in the Wisconsin Supreme Court race earlier this month.

It was such a widespread victory that if the votes break the same way in November, Democrats would be likely in shape to control both houses of the Wisconsin Legislature. Feel free to click on these tweets to open up the pictures, which breaks down the numbers for each district.

In the Wisconsin Supreme Court race earlier this month, Judge Rebecca Dallet (Dem) carried 21 of 33 State Senate districts. She carried six R-held seats; the strongest of which was Senate President Roger Roth's (R) 19th. Odd-numbered seats are up in the fall. #wipolitics #scowis pic.twitter.com/NuYs1NqqVT

— J. Miles Coleman (@JMilesColeman) April 17, 2018

In the State Assembly, Dallet won 57 of 99 seats, closer to her 56% share of the state vote. She carried 21 Republican-held seats, some quite easily. The closest seat, #HD42, has a special election June 12. In the fall, the entire chamber is up. #wipolitics #scowis pic.twitter.com/zbXUxD3zzQ

— J. Miles Coleman (@JMilesColeman) April 17, 2018

Results like this statewide would flip 4 Senate seats and 22 (!) seats in the Assembly. Now, I don't count on all of that happening because of "Magic R" voters and other items that make a November electorate different from an April one. But it's also worth noting that Screnock won his home Assembly district (50th) by less than Dallet won hers (23rd), despite both being GOP-held, and Screnock won 6 districts by 51-49 or less, so it could have been even worse.

The geography of the win is remarkable. The Green Bay-Appleton media market had 8 GOP-Assembly held seats flip over to Dallet on April 3. 8 western Wisconsin GOP seats also went for Dallet, most being on or near the Mississippi River in an area of the state that turned hard towards Republicans and Donald Trump in 2016.

Seeing those areas of strength for Dallet is what has to scare the daylights out of Scott Walker for November. If the Fox Valley and Western Wisconsin even holds half of the shift that went from Trump to Dallet, Walker is in big trouble. Because a remarkable thing about the Supreme Court race is that the Republican WOW Counties turned out at a high clip from Screnock, while the pro-Dem City of Milwaukee took a lower share of the electorate than do in November races. That means that Walker is even MORE behind if you assume the blue-red split on the Supreme Court map resembles the field of play today.

And before people start saying "Well see, gerrymandering doesn't keep things from flipping," take a look at how much the Dem-favored candidate had to win by to get things to turn over. And this was for an open seat with candidates that likely weren't known much in most parts of the state. That's very different from trying to toss a protected GOP incumbent...unless the GOP becomes so hated by November that the casual voter says "THEY ALL MUST PAY!"

Certainly there's a long 6 1/2 months between now and November. But if you look at the strong work from Mr. Coleman pictured above, that's what the best-case scenario for Wisconsin Dems looks like, and it shows how things would look if we had an election in November that would go a long way toward eradicating the Age of Fitzwalkerstan. And that probably makes a lot of GOP legislators realize that they might have to work to keep their seat, and I bet quite a few of these doofii aren't good enough to do it, if things are made tough enough for them.

Let's make it so.