Monday, February 1, 2021

Stimulus update - GOPs can join in, but Dems can't let them bog it down

You may have heard about some Republican senators that are trying to do a pared-back stimulus package as a counter to President Biden’s $1.9 trillion plan. Yahoo! News goes over these differences, and we can discuss it after that.
The proposal introduced by Senators Susan Collins (R-ME), Lisa Murkowski (R-AK), Mitt Romney (R-UT), Rob Portman (R-OH), and Bill Cassidy (R-LA) and five others has a much lower price tag than Biden’s $1.9 trillion stimulus plan he unveiled in January. The Republican senators asked for “more targeted assistance than in the Administration’s plan,” according to the letter.

The $618 billion plan includes an additional round of stimulus checks, but the payments are cut down to $1,000 versus $1,400 payments in Biden’s plan.

Who qualifies for a payment under the Republican plan also differ. Single filers who make up to $40,000 are eligible for the full payment, and those who make under $50,000 qualify for a phased-out payment. Under Biden’s plan, single filers who make up to $75,000 qualify for the full payment, while those who earn less than $100,000 get a phased-out payment.
Theoretically, if 10 Republican Senators would join with the 50 Democratic Senators on a plan, that would be enough to allow for cloture on a vote, and no need to use budget reconciliation to get any stimulus bill to get passed into law.

Now the question is, do you believe these Republicans are working in good faith? If so, then it could be a negotation that results in getting aid out to Americans soon. But, even if you view this GOP plan as a legitimate offer, it gives a lot less to many Americans than Biden's plan would, and cuts them off sooner.
The Republican plan also extends the $300 in weekly unemployment benefits through June 30, while Biden’s proposal would increase the extra benefit to $400 and extend the program through September. But the GOP proposal doesn’t mention extending the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA), which provides benefits to unemployed contractors and self-employed. Biden’s proposal would extend the PUA and other federal unemployment programs.

The Republican proposal also includes money for food assistance, vaccine development and distribution, testing and tracing, treatment, and supplies, among other provisions. But it excludes funding for state and local governments, a key provision for Democrats that they tried to include in the stimulus deal passed in December and are trying to make part of this relief legislation.
So what do I think Biden and other Dems should do? I'd call the bluff of the GOP Senators, and bring their plan to a vote in the next 3 days. Except PUA and extended unemployment benefits would be added on top of it (since it’s unrealistic to think everything will be back to normal by mid-March). See if GOPs bite, or if they decide to dither and/or come up with some excuse to screw the unemployed. Which probably won't go over well given that we lost nearly 9.4 million jobs in 2020, and have seen unemployment claims go higher in January.

Dems should also bump the stimulus checks to $1,400 if you want to confirm Biden's promise of $2,000 in direct money, although I worry that gives GOPs more of an out. Dems also can follow with another standalone for $600 that goes out in March or April (and given what I see on social media, they'd better at least go hard for it), especially if jobs are slow to come back.

After the GOP plan is considered on the little things, and hopefully goes through with regular order, you can use budget reconciliation (and only need 50 votes to pass) for the rest of Biden's plan. That would have the larger amount of state and local assistance, and more program upgrades. Those items can be sprinkled out over a larger period of time, unlike the unemployment aid and stimulus checks, which need to go out NOW to the tens of millions of Americans that are struggling.

I definitely like that the Biden Administration seems to have learned the lessons of 2009, and that going big is a requirement in order for this stimulus plan to work. I am certainly sympathetic to the argument that you tell bad-faith Republicans to stick it up their backsides and that they should take a seat for a while. But I think a show of accepting their smaller package WITH THE CLEAR MESSAGE THAT THE DEMS WILL ADD ON OVER THE NEXT 2-3 WEEKS might be a better strategy. This puts GOPs against the wall and in a no-win situation where either they cave (anger their oligarch puppetmasters), or look like uncaring scum in a time when so many Americans are struggling.

Regardless of what Republicans decide to do, Dems need to be the ones to DELIVER and keep the foot on the gas. And while they can listen to Republicans if there are areas where they want to help the recovery, Dems are the ones who make the final call, Dems needs to be seen fighting for more (and getting it), and getting that big bill onto Biden's desk by the end of next week.

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