Monday, February 12, 2024

Are WisGOPs trying to trap Gov Evers by accepting his maps, and keeping gerrymander for November?

On the surface, this looks like a sign of progress.

If signed into law, this would make maps much fairer for November than they are today. It would allow Dems a decent shot of winning control if they win statewide by about 3-5%, instead of having to win by 13-15%.

But given that Republicans have fought every possible attempt to remove their gerrymander up to this point, why would they give in now?

One possibility is that the GOP knows that taking Evers' maps is likely to be a better outcome than whatever decision the Wisconsin Supreme Court comes back with in the next month, as Evers' maps give GOPs a better chance of staying in power in the Legislature than the other maps in serious consideration. The negative partisan bias numbers in this chart show the advantage that GOPs would have under various map scenarios.

But Dem Congressman Mark Pocan thinks there is something more sinister going on.

I wasn't seeing this when Mark first brought it up, and I didn't understand how appealing this would be different than appealing a decision from the State Supreme Court/. But because a Supreme Court decision sets new boundaries via a court decision, and not from a bill that goes through the typical legislative process, it is a different thing where a court decision is being appealed by the Legislature, vs some outside person complaining how wronged they were by the bill.

And after some explanation and further analysis, the worry for Rep. Pocan and some others would be that this chain of events happens after a new maps bill is signed.
1. Signing the maps opens the door for WILL or some other RW front group to get someone to file to lawsuit to the Federal courts.

2. Federal courts put a hold on the new maps, which means:

3. November 2024 elections are held under the GOP gerrymander.

With that in mind, I'd advise Evers to say "TOO LATE!" to the GOPs who could have done this when the Guv put out his first set of maps 3 years ago, and veto this. It's a very explainable thing to do, where Evers can explain that Robbin' Vos and company cannot be trusted to do anything in good faith, and that there is a Supreme Court decision due in a month, and we will see what happens with that.

So let's see if the GOPs in the Legislature even try this desperate/cynical move to pass Governor Evers' maps in the next 2 weeks, before they go on their 10-month paid vacation. But if they do, I'd recommend Evers to just say NO to this gambit. We are so close to having fair maps for our State Legislature for the first time in 14 years. We need to lessen the chances of daylight to allow for a BS GOP maneuver that delays it for another election cycle.

1 comment:

  1. Yeah, there's zero chance that the Junta which has been squatting in the Lege for 14 years is throwing in the towel or suddenly acting in good faith. The maps might be the Governor's, but the TIMELINE is not. They are STILL weaseling.

    Not a single election more under the existing unconstitutional scheme. Veto.